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ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS, INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLICATIONS, AND COST COMPARISONS David P. Tuttle Research Fellow The University of Texas at Austin ENS 620N, Austin, TX 78712 dave.tuttle@mail.utexas.edu Kara M. Kockelman (Corresponding author) Professor and William J. Murray Jr. Fellow Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering The University of Texas at Austin 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, Austin, TX 78712-1076 kkockelm@mail.utexas.edu Accepted for presentation at the Transportation Research Board’s 91st Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 2012 and inclusion in compendium of conference proceedings ABSTRACT Alternatives to petroleum-based fuels for transportation are sought to address concerns over climate change and energy security. Key semiconductor, software, and battery technologies have sufficiently progressed over the past few decades to enable a mass-market-viable plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) alternative. In this paper, the various PEV architectures are described, including market availability, technologies and trends, practical ranges, battery replacement and power costs, implications for grid operations, and other developments. Manufacturers’ recently announced prices and EPA standardized test data are used (where available) to increase the accuracy of cost comparisons for competing vehicles. Results indicate that in relatively low fuel-cost regions, like the U.S., PEVs enjoy a positive discounted net present value, thanks to tax credits and assuming that the original battery does not need replacement by the owner. Even without the tax credits, PEVs offer financial payback for those residing in higher fuel-cost regions, as long as their batteries last the vehicle’s lifetime or are replaced by manufacturers (under warranty). Key Words: Plug-in electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fleet evolution, new-technology adoption, vehicle cost comparisons BACKGROUND The motivations for developing alternative energy sources and associated vehicle powertrains1 is to reduce a widespread dependence on oil (particularly foreign oil), imported oil-driven trade deficits (with oil imbalances constituting close to half of the U.S.’s trade deficit, [U.S. BEA 2008]), oil related costs (Greene 2010a), and environmental concerns (including climate change and oil spills) while improving energy security, and air quality (Siosanshi and Denholm 2008, Thompson et al. 2009, EPRI and NRDC 2007), 1TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal.
