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THE COST OF RIGHT-OF-WAY ACQUISITION: RECOGNIZING THE IMPACT OF CONDEMNATION VIA A SWITCHING REGRESSION MODEL Xiaoxia Xiong The University of Texas at Austin 1.120. Cockrell Jr. Hall Austin, TX 78712-1076 xiaoxia.xiong@utexas.edu Kara M. Kockelman (Corresponding author) Professor and William J. Murray Jr. Fellow Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering The University of Texas at Austin 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall Austin, TX 78712-1076 kkockelm@mail.utexas.edu Phone: 512-471-0210 FAX: 512-475-8744 To be presented at the 91st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board in Washington DC, January 2012, and under review for publication in Transportation Research Record ABSTRACT The costs of acquiring parcels by condemnation are usually significantly higher than those for property acquired by negotiation, suggesting that the Right-of-Way (R/W) acquisition costs may best be described by two different regression equations. This paper develops a switching regression model of acquisition cost to simultaneously predict the probability of whether a parcel will go to condemnation rather than be acquired via negotiation and the corresponding acquisition costs under these two regimes. The error terms of the selection equation and the two cost equations follow a trivariate normal distribution to reflect co-dependence on unobserved factors (such as a land owner's tenacity or a site's view value). When applied to the properties acquired across the state of Texas for transportation probjects between 2008 and 2011, results of this switching regression model suggest that R/W appraisers and staff should pay special attention to parcels in commercial use involving a partial taking with a relatively small remainder and located in more urbanized areas. Comparison of cost estimates between the two regimes (condemnation vs. negotiation) suggests that condemned parcels will have, on average, 78% higher acquisition costs across the 1,710 acquired properties and 51% greater price variation. These results suggest that it is much more costly to acquire a property and more difficult to accurately predict its costs if it cannot be acquired via negotiation. The application of model estimates to an example corridor highlights the value of simulation to capture all modeling uncertainties. Key words: Right of Way Acquisition, Cost Estimation, Condemnation, Endogenous Switching Regression TRB 2012 Annual Meeting Paper revised from original submittal.
