2013 Session: 227

• Analyzing Car Ownership in Two Quebec Metropolitan Regions: Comparison of Latent Ordered and Unordered Response Models
  Abstract: Private car ownership plays a vital role in the daily travel decisions of individuals and households. The topic is of great interest to policy makers given the growing focus on global climate change, public health, and sustainable development issues. Not surprisingly, it is one of the most researched transportation topics. The extant literature on car ownership models considers the influence of exogenous variables to remain the same across the entire population. However, it is possible that the influence of exogenous variable effects might vary across the population. To accommodate this population heterogeneity in the context of car ownership, the current paper proposes the application of latent class versions of ordered (ordered logit) and unordered response (multinomial logit) models. The models are estimated and compared using the data from two Canadian cities of the province of Quebec: Montreal and Quebec City. The latent class models from the two regions offer superior data fit compared to their traditional counterparts while clearly highlighting the presence of segmentation in the population. The validation exercise using the model estimation results further illustrates the strength of the latent class models for examining car ownership decisions. In terms of the comparison exercise, the latent class unordered response models consistently outperform the latent class ordered response models for the two Quebec regions examined.
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2198
• It's Not That I Don't Care, I Just Don't Care Very Much: Confounding Between Attribute Nonattendance and Taste Heterogeneity
  Abstract: With the growing interest in the topic of attribute non-attendance, there is now widespread use of latent class (LC) structures aimed at capturing such behaviour. Specifically, these studies rely on a confirmatory LC model, using two separate values for each coefficient, one of which is fixed to zero while the other is estimated, and then use the obtained class probabilities as an indication of the degree of attribute non-attendance. In the present paper, we argue that this approach is in fact misguided, and that the results are likely to be affected by confounding with \emph{regular} taste heterogeneity. We contrast the confirmatory model with an exploratory LC structure in which the values in both classes are estimated. We also put forward a combined latent class mixed logit model (LC-MMNL) which allows jointly for attribute non-attendance and for continuous taste heterogeneity. Across two case studies, the exploratory LC model clearly rejects the confirmatory LC approach and suggests that rates of non-attendance may be much lower than what is suggested by the standard model, or even zero. The combined LC-MMNL model similarly produces significant improvements in model fit, along with substantial reductions in the implied rate of attribute non-attendance, in some cases even eliminating the phenomena across the sample population. Our results thus call for a reappraisal of the large body of recent work that has implied high rates of attribute non-attendance for some attributes. Finally, we also highlight a number of general issues with attribute non-attendance, in particular relating to the computation of willingness to pay measures.
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Stathopoulos, Amanda; Campbell, Danny; O'Neill, Vikki; Caussade, Sebastian
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Stathopoulos, Amanda; Campbell, Danny; O'Neill, Vikki; Caussade, Sebastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2252
• Development of Hybrid Choice Model to Investigate Effects of Teenagers’ Attitudes Toward Walking and Cycling on Mode Choice Behavior
  Abstract: The scope of this paper is to develop an advanced Stated Preferences (SP) survey, customized to capture teenagers’ behaviors and estimate hybrid mode choice models, in which the utilities depend both on the attributes of the mode, as well as on the latent variable “willingness to walk or cycle”. The SP scenarios include four alternative modes for the trip to school: car (escorted by parents), bus, bicycle and walk, while the attributes are travel time, travel cost, walking time to the bus station, availability of bikepaths, sidewalks and parking places and weather conditions. The data are drawn from a survey that took place in all the high-schools of Cyprus in 2012. The sample consists of 4,174 teenagers (12 to 18 years old) covering the 8.7% of the total high-school population. For the model estimations a total of 8,348 SP observations is used. It is found that the existence of bikepaths and wide pavements significantly affect the choice of active transport. The latent variable enters significantly into the choice model specification assuring that unobserved variables should be implemented in the choice process. “Willingness to walk and cycle” has a positive effect on the choice of those alternatives, while a negative effect on the choice of car. Moreover, it is found that parents’ level of education and mode use patterns and habits influence the development of attitudes towards mode choice. The results of the study provide insights on policies and campaigns that may help the next generation to develop a greener travel behavior.
  Authors: Kamargianni, Maria; Polydoropoulou, Amalia
  Authors: Kamargianni, Maria; Polydoropoulou, Amalia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-4508
• You Can Lead Travelers to the Bus Stop, But You Can’t Make Them Ride
  Abstract: Modality styles are defined as behavioral predispositions characterized by a certain travel mode or set of travel modes that an individual habitually uses. They are reflective of higher-level orientations, or lifestyles, that influence all dimensions of an individual’s travel and activity behavior. This study employs a latent class model that incorporates the influence exerted by individual modality styles on travel mode choice to identify different modality styles within datasets from the Bay Area, United States and Karlsruhe, Germany. Results reveal that only 40% of the sample population in either dataset considers the full range of travel mode alternatives when deciding how to travel, and differences in the composition of the remaining 60% reflect deeper cultural and spatial differences between the two regions. The study finds that travel demand models that ignore the influence of modality styles on travel mode choice can overestimate expected gains from transport policies and infrastructural initiatives seeking to reduce automobile use by a factor as large as two. The study further demonstrates how incremental improvements in the transportation system, unless accompanied by corresponding shifts in individual modality styles, will result in far smaller changes in travel behavior than would be predicted by a traditional travel demand model; what is needed is a dramatic change to the transportation system that forces individuals to reconsider how they travel.
  Authors: Vij, Akshay; Walker, Joan L.
  Authors: Vij, Akshay; Walker, Joan L.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-4609
• Examining the Anticipated Integration of Bikeshare with Travel Modes: Latent Class Model Application
  Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive investigation of anticipated bikeshare integration with available travel modes in an urban setting. The key objective of the research is to enhance our understanding of the factors affecting choice of different potential integration types that include (a) transit-bikeshare, (b) auto-bikeshare, (c) walk-bikeshare, (d) other modes-bikeshare, and (e) no integration with bikeshare, if a public bikeshare system is available. This paper uses data collected from a bikeshare survey conducted in Halifax, Canada, in 2011. The web-based survey included questions regarding the system’s potential usage in respondents’ daily activities, the frequency of usage, and the anticipated integration with their existing travel mode choices. A latent class choice model is used in the study, which accounts for unobserved heterogeneity often ignored in traditional choice modeling. One of the unique features of the modeling approach taken in this paper is that observed attitudinal factors determine class membership probabilities. The results suggest that the latent class logit model outperforms the conventional logit model in terms of model fit. Several socio-economic characteristics, accessibility measures, and neighborhood characteristics are found to explain different types of integration. Moreover, it is found that considerable latent heterogeneity exists among sampled household. The research offers significant behavioral insights that could be potentially useful in planning for bikeshare implementation.
  Authors: Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul; Shaw, Nicholas; Peterlin, Mateja
  Authors: Habib, Muhammad Ahsanul; Shaw, Nicholas; Peterlin, Mateja
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-5355
• Analyzing Car Ownership in Two Quebec Metropolitan Regions: Comparison of Latent Ordered and Unordered Response Models
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2198
• It's Not That I Don't Care, I Just Don't Care Very Much: Confounding Between Attribute Nonattendance and Taste Heterogeneity
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2252
• Development of Hybrid Choice Model to Investigate Effects of Teenagers' Attitudes Toward Walking and Cycling on Mode Choice Behavior
  Authors: Kamargianni, Maria
  Authors: Kamargianni, Maria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-4508
• Examining the Anticipated Integration of Bikeshare with Travel Modes: Latent Class Model Application
  Authors: Habib, Muhammad
  Authors: Habib, Muhammad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-5355
• Examining the Anticipated Integration of Bikeshare with Travel Modes: Latent Class Model Application
  Authors: Shaw, Nicholas
  Authors: Shaw, Nicholas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-5355
• You Can Lead Travelers to the Bus Stop, But You Can't Make Them Ride
  Authors: Vij, Akshay
  Authors: Vij, Akshay
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-4609