2013 Session: 280

• Network Structure and the Journey to Work: Intrametropolitan Analysis
  Abstract: This paper aims to look at the variation of network structure within a metropolitan area and relate it to observed travel, measured here as the average travel time to work. The Minor Civil Divisions (MCD) within the Twin Cities (Minneapolis, St. Paul) metropolitan area are chosen for this analysis. Quantitative measures, compiled from various sources, are used to capture the various aspects of network structure within each MCD. The variation of these measures within the metropolitan area is analyzed using spatial analyses. The measures of network structure are then related to observed travel using statistical regression models. The results confirm a relation between network structure and travel and point to the importance of understanding the underlying street network structure.
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1820
• MOSAIC: Comprehensive Tool for Sustainable Highway Corridor Planning
  Abstract: This paper develops a Model Of Sustainability and Integrated Corridors (MOSAIC) to select the best program-level plans for corridors within Maryland by estimating the sustainability impact of multimodal highway improvement options early in the transportation planning and environmental screening processes with minimum requirements on staff time and other resources. Six categories of sustainability indicators (mobility, safety, socio-economic impact, natural resources, energy and emissions, and cost) and more than thirty sustainability performance measures have been defined as evaluation criteria for the selection of highway corridor improvement options. The first version of MOSAIC considers two highway improvement options, including adding a general-purpose lane and converting at-grade intersections to grade-separated interchanges. Ongoing efforts will expand the highway improvement options in MOSAIC to also include road diet, bus rapid transit, bus-only lanes, high occupancy vehicle lanes, high occupancy toll lanes, freight truck-only lanes, light rail transit, and express toll lanes. Various quantitative models have been developed to analyze the impacts of these alternative corridor improvement types on identified sustainability indicators. Mode choice model has also been introduced preparing for future study on multimodal improvement types. MOSAIC has been applied to the US 15 corridor north of Fredrick, MD, to demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of this comprehensive tool for sustainable highway corridor planning. Planed future research will integrate MOSAIC tool into Maryland State highway Administration (SHA)’s Enterprise GIS system, which is expected to further streamline MOSAIC input and output processes, making the tool ready for state-wide applications in Maryland.
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Ji, Mingyang; Ferrari, Nicholas; Mathews, Reena; Beckett, Eric; Silwick, Jessica; Slater, Gregory Ian
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Ji, Mingyang; Ferrari, Nicholas; Mathews, Reena; Beckett, Eric; Silwick, Jessica; Slater, Gregory Ian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-2240
• Transportation Network Resolution: Exploring How Much of Road Network Is Needed for Analysis
  Abstract: It is typical for travel models to use only a subset of the transportation system links. Often major links such as arterial roads are included in the network but local streets and minor roads are excluded. This paper evaluates the potential significance of 23 such omitted links in the travel demand model network of Chittenden County, Vermont using the Network Trip Robustness measure. The objective is to determine the relative significance of including each of these omitted links in the network. Approximately, half (12) of the links were found to significantly influence the robustness of the network. The analysis demonstrates that the set of links included in a travel-model network must be assessed before effective analyses can be made. If significant network links are omitted from a model network, erroneous conclusions about the effects of new roadway infrastructure or existing roadway disruptions are possible. Seemingly insignificant roads and streets can provide alternative routes, which will provide gains to the network even during relatively minor disruption events.
  Authors: Sullivan, James; Novak, David; Aultman-Hall, Lisa
  Authors: Sullivan, James; Novak, David; Aultman-Hall, Lisa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1557
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Volume Forecasts for Environmental Impact Statements and Traffic Impact Analysis Reports: Accuracy of Road and Residential Developments in Honolulu
  Abstract: Traffic forecasting is an essential part of project development. The impact that forecast traffic has on infrastructure planning and design is essential for project approval. This study compared forecast traffic levels from Traffic Impact Analysis Reports prepared between 1976 and 2002 to actual traffic volumes recorded by the Hawaii State Department of Transportation in the city and county of Honolulu. The information extracted uniformly from 11 reports included year of report, consultant, type of project, location, movement, forecast horizon, forecast traffic volumes and forecasting method.This study focused on road and residential developments and examined the accuracy of traffic demand forecasting, the conservative or optimistic tendency in traffic forecasts and the potential factors affecting accuracy. The results revealed that traffic forecasts are on average overestimated by 35% and there is a clear tendency to overestimate future traffic volume. Location and preparer (consultant) were variables with significant effects on forecast accuracy. Also seasonality and accuracy of the actual volumes has a substantial impact on forecast accuracy.There are several reasons for the inaccuracies in traffic forecasting in Honolulu, such as a carpooling rate that is more than double the respective US average, seasonal variation in tourism traffic, and high population growth in the 1970s and 1980s.In combination with research elsewhere, a major lesson from Honolulu is that locations that are substantially different in local culture, population mix, geographic features and transportation infrastructure (e.g., Honolulu and San Juan, but also Miami, New York City and San Francisco) may require extensive customization of both traffic forecasts and design volume specifications for achieving more accurate project estimates.
  Authors: Caroee, Maja; Prevedouros, Panos D.; Yu, Xin
  Authors: Caroee, Maja; Prevedouros, Panos D.; Yu, Xin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1398
• Sustainability Assessment for Transportation Vehicles and Projects
  Abstract: Traditional urban planning ignores vehicle technology including the large differences among conventional, hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles and buses. In this study an assessment framework is developed that has its foundations in the over-arching principle of sustainability. The framework is composed of five sustainability dimensions: Environment, Technology, Energy, Economy, and Users. Based on these sustainability dimensions a set of indicators was developed for assessing the sustainability performance of five urban transportation vehicles. The indicators are based on vehicle life cycle impacts and measure individual vehicle features that contribute to sustainability maximization. The assessment revealed that Hybrid Diesel Electric Bus and Hybrid Electric Vehicle have the highest scores. Performance indices per vehicle type provide the basis for a sustainability tool. The tool was applied to a corridor in Honolulu, USA to assess the sustainability performance of three mode share scenarios. Results show that modern propulsion systems can improve the overall sustainability performance relative to internal combustion engine technologies. The sustainability performance of some new technologies currently suffers from limitations in engine and battery performance, comfort and convenience, and availability of charging stations.
  Authors: Mitropoulos, Lambros; Prevedouros, Panos D.
  Authors: Mitropoulos, Lambros; Prevedouros, Panos D.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1402
• Network Structure and the Journey to Work: Intrametropolitan Analysis
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1820
• Sustainability Assessment for Transportation Vehicles and Projects
  Authors: Prevedouros, Panos
  Authors: Prevedouros, Panos
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1402
• Volume Forecasts for Environmental Impact Statements and Traffic Impact Analysis Reports: Accuracy of Road and Residential Developments in Honolulu
  Authors: Prevedouros, Panos
  Authors: Prevedouros, Panos
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1398
• Transportation Network Resolution: Exploring How Much of Road Network Is Needed for Analysis
  Authors: Sullivan, James
  Authors: Sullivan, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-1557
• MOSAIC: Comprehensive Tool for Sustainable Highway Corridor Planning
  Authors: Ji, Mingyang
  Authors: Ji, Mingyang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 280
  Paper Number: 13-2240