2013 Session: 320

• Forecasting Demand for High-Speed Rail
  Abstract: It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing travel time elasticities for long-distance rail travel in the literature and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish official long-distance model and its forecasted demand for a proposed new HSR track, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The official linear-in-parameters long-distance model is also compared to a model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long-distance travel, long-distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Swedish state-of-practice model, and similar models, is indeed able to predict the demand for a HSR reasonably well. The non-linear model, however, has better model fit and slightly higher elasticities.
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Rail
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-1469
• Development of A Multi-Criteria Decision Method for High-Speed Rail Corridor Evaluation
  Abstract: High-speed intercity passenger rail projects are very complex and require many years of planning and environmental activities before construction can begin. Given the complexity of planning and environmental reviews associated with high-speed intercity passenger rail corridor planning, a systematic approach for high-level screening of various alternative routings for proposed high-speed rail corridors is desired. In this context, this paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making framework to assist high-speed rail planners with the preliminary screening and ranking of potential high-speed rail corridors. The proposed framework is applied to the question of ranking 13 alternative routings for connecting the South Central and Gulf Coast federally-designated high-speed rail corridors located in Texas. Attributes that are incorporated in the decision framework include population, travel demand, capital costs, land use and environmental impacts, and engineering suitability. While the multi-criteria decision-making framework developed in this paper cannot be used to completely replace the environmental review process and formal alternatives analysis, it can be used by planners as a tool for preliminary screening or ranking of proposed high-speed rail corridors for detailed analysis.
  Authors: Sperry, Benjamin R.; Mueller, Jon; Hunter-Zaworski, Katharine M.
  Authors: Sperry, Benjamin R.; Mueller, Jon; Hunter-Zaworski, Katharine M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Rail
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-3342
• Analyzing the Potential for High-Speed Rail as Part of the Multimodal Transportation System in the Midwest Corridor
  Abstract: With ever-increasing congestion and rising fuel costs, both the travel time and cost of intercity passenger transportation are becoming increasingly significant. Around the world, high-speed rail (HSR) is seen as a way to mitigate the risk of volatile petroleum prices while alleviating congestion on highways and at airports. However, HSR is a contentious issue in the United States due to justifiable concerns of ridership and the large capital investment. Ridership is the critical element in determining the viability of a large capital, long-term transportation investment in terms of costs, revenue and the resulting societal impacts. This paper analyzes the potential for high-speed rail as part of the existing multimodal transportation system in a region. It provides a systematic methodology for analyzing transportation systemwide modal ridership with and without a proposed HSR network. Demographic, technological, economic, and policy trends are used to project ridership in the long-term. Experiments are conducted for the US Midwest corridor, but the methodology is extendable and modular to incorporate any mode in any region. The results show that passenger rail and commercial air ridership will increase at a faster rate than the road mode due to rising gasoline prices. The level-of-service and operational characteristics of HSR are critical in attracting ridership. Ridership forecasts range from 7 to 50 million riders annually based on current Amtrak and commercial airline service characteristics, respectively.
  Authors: Peters, Jeffrey; Han, En-Pei; Peeta, Srinivas; Delaurentis, Daniel
  Authors: Peters, Jeffrey; Han, En-Pei; Peeta, Srinivas; Delaurentis, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Rail
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-1363
• Short-Term High-Speed Rail Land Use Impacts on Large Metropolises: Case Study of Madrid, Spain
  Abstract: This paper proposes an accessibility-based approach to find the short-term high speed rail impacts on metropolitan areas. We study the Spanish High Speed Rail impacts from 2006 to 2009 on Madrid, as a case study, by the integration of geographic information system (GIS) technology and spatial discrete choice models. In this paper, besides the socioeconomic variables, both local and regional transport network development and accessibility growth are considered to isolate the impacts on the changes of land use types brought by different sources of accessibilities. The results from our model reveal that, in large metropolitan cities like Madrid, the impacts of high speed rail are shadowed by the other external factors. Focusing on the land typologies which shift the land use types during the studied years, we find that the growth of regional accessibility by the inauguration of new high speed rail lines is an important incentive which may lead to the upgrade of land occupation. However, this does not imply that such an increase can be a sufficient factor to drive the change in land use patterns, since comparing with the whole metropolitan region, the proportion of land cells which change each year is relatively small.
  Authors: Shen, Yu; Martínez, Luis Miguel Garrido; de Abreu e Silva, João
  Authors: Shen, Yu; Martínez, Luis Miguel Garrido; de Abreu e Silva, João
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Rail
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-4264
• Analyzing the Potential for High-Speed Rail as Part of the Multimodal Transportation System in the Midwest Corridor
  Authors: Peters, Jeffrey
  Authors: Peters, Jeffrey
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-1363
• Forecasting Demand for High-Speed Rail
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-1469
• Development of A Multi-Criteria Decision Method for High-Speed Rail Corridor Evaluation
  Authors: Sperry, Benjamin
  Authors: Sperry, Benjamin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-3342
• Short-Term High-Speed Rail Land Use Impacts on Large Metropolises: Case Study of Madrid, Spain
  Authors: Shen, Yu
  Authors: Shen, Yu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: 13-4264
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Mejia, Genaro
  Authors: Mejia, Genaro
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 320
  Paper Number: Z13-320