2013 Session: 358

• Application of Generalized Estimating Equations for Crash Frequency Modeling in Developing Countries
  Abstract: Researchers in developing countries are often faced with the small sample size issue in the crash data during the crash frequency analysis, due to the incomplete crash and information recording and reporting systems. Traditional generalized linear model (GLM) for crash frequency modeling is usually based on crash counts aggregated over multiple years, and would have a poor performance by the limitation of sample size. Treating crash count in each year as a separate observation could enlarge the sample size, but would create temporal correlation among crashes in different years which could bias the model estimates. In this study, we evaluated the application of generalized estimating equation (GEE) procedure to deal with the above dilemma faced by researchers in developing countries. Using a four-year crash data at exit ramps on a freeway in China, two traditional GLMs based on yearly aggregated and disaggregated data as well as a GLM with GEE procedure were estimated. The results showed that the models based on yearly disaggregated data generally performed better than the one with yearly aggregated data due to the enlarged sample size. The traditional GLM underestimated the standard errors of coefficients for explanatory variables which could lead to incorrect inferences. The GEE procedure with a exchangeable correlation structure successively captured the temporal correlation in the longitudinal data of this study and was considered to outperform the traditional GLMs in estimating the impacts of variables on crash counts.
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng; Zha, Liteng
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng; Zha, Liteng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-0891
• A Study on Pedestrian Choice Between Stairway and Escalator in Transfer Station Based on Floor Field Cellular Automata
  Abstract: Stairway and escalator are main transfer facilities in the station where pedestrians make choices between them. A good understanding of pedestrian choices is helpful to raise the efficiency of transfer stations and lower the probability of disasters, such as stamps caused by congestion. This paper studies the choice behavior of pedestrians using random utility theory and floor field cellular automata. Among the factors influencing pedestrian choices, there are non-quantitative ones and quantitative ones. Thus, a method combining qualitative description and quantitative description is adopted. Subsequently, a logit model is presented to mimic the choice behaviors of pedestrians. In this model, there are three new important parameters, including familiarity, walking disutility, and time pressure. By using micro-simulation, a sensitivity analysis for these parameters is conducted. Besides, a counting rule based on Large Number Law is presented to count the real data in transfer stations in Shanghai. After comparing the sensitivity analysis results and measurement data, several reference values of the three important parameters are obtained in uncongested and congested situations respectively.
  Authors: Ji, Xiangfeng; Zhang, Jian; Ran, Bin
  Authors: Ji, Xiangfeng; Zhang, Jian; Ran, Bin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-1635
• Implications from South Korea's Smart Card Operation
  Abstract: Public transport should be promoted to increase the efficiency of urban transport and build sustainable urban transport systems. Smart Transit Card (STC) is acclaimed as a very effective policy that increases public transport convenience. Because STCs have been introduced and are successfully being implemented in many cities in South Korea, this study reviews whole process from beginning to end on the Integrated STC in South Korea. When the country first implemented STCs, it experienced diverse problems such as inability to refund fares, a lack of system capacity, and suspension of some services. South Korea has continued to solve the problems. Policymakers played key role to implement the policy, while stakeholders forged agreements. Laws and systems were mended and improved to achieve nationwide STC compatibility. Financial and technical improvements were implemented to enhance the convenience of using STCs. These efforts certainly led to an enhanced convenience of and demand for using public transport. The STC implementation case of South Korea is believed to provide good implications to many cities that intend to introduce Integrated STC.
  Authors: Kim, DongJun; Shin, Hee Cheol
  Authors: Kim, DongJun; Shin, Hee Cheol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2380
• Changing Trends of Bicycle Usage in China: Macrolevel Analysis
  Abstract: Cities in China have experienced extremely large changes in both socioeconomics and traffic characteristics in the past decade. These changes have resulted in a long-term change in the percent of bicycle usage in the city areas. The primary objective of this study is to capture the changing trends of bicycle usage in cities of China from a macroscopic perspective and explore the reasons for the change. To achieve the objective, data are collected from 45 medium-to-large cities in different spatial regions of China. The data analysis shows that the percent of bicycle usage in cities of China gradually decreased in the past years with an average rate of 2.69% for conventional bicycles and 1.07% for all bicycles (including conventional and electric bicycles). Larger cities generally have lower levels of bicycle usage. The models are developed to analyze the relationship between bicycle usage and city-level characteristics. The results show that as the population and land area in a city grow and the income level increases, the average trip time becomes longer and more travelers choose to use motorized trip modes, which consequently reduce the bicycle mode share in the city area. This study concludes that the bicycle usage could keep decreasing in the future in cities of China.
  Authors: Yang, Chen; Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Mao; Zhao, Yajie
  Authors: Yang, Chen; Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Mao; Zhao, Yajie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2408
• Evaluation of Bluetooth for Traffic Stream Travel Time Estimation Under Indian Conditions
  Abstract: Travel time estimation has been a high interest topic in traffic operation and management for years. Travel time information is more useful to the user than other parameters such as speed, flow, density, headway etc. However, travel time being spatial in nature, requires a spatial sensor for its measurement. The spatial sensors available for such a data collection include GPS, AVI, mobile phones, Bluetooth, etc. These can measure the travel time directly; however techniques like GPS and AVI require participation of the user for data collection, which is difficult especially in private vehicles. Use of mobile phones is another possibility, which has lesser location accuracy since it uses triangulation to find the location of vehicles. Bluetooth, Zigbee, and wifi sensors are other possibilities and are reported as possible source of travel time data from western countries. They have the advantage of no participation requirement and reasonably good location accuracy. However, the disadvantage is that they can capture only a small percentage of the entire traffic stream. The present study explores Bluetooth sensor as a traffic data source under Indian conditions. The first part of the study checks the penetration rate of Bluetooth to check the possibility of using it as a traffic data source under Indian conditions. The second part of the study analysed and identified the type of vehicles being represented by Bluetooth. This is important under Indian conditions, where several different types of vehicles are sharing the same roadway. And the last part of the study presents the stream travel time estimation from these selected classes of vehicles being represented by Bluetooth data. This involved the use of a weighted linear regression model. The results of modeling are promising and show potential for real time ITS applications.
  Authors: Agarwal, Nitish; Varma, Sunny Raja; Vanajakshi, Lelitha Devi
  Authors: Agarwal, Nitish; Varma, Sunny Raja; Vanajakshi, Lelitha Devi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2483
• Development and Evaluation of Traffic Systems Management Course for Sustainable Built Environment in Developing Countries
  Abstract: The paper presents the need for development of Traffic Systems Management (TSM) course in a developing country. The Palestinian Territories have witnessed significant increase in urban travel demand after the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) in 1994. This increase was faced with limited development in transportation infrastructure, due to the constraints of the prolonged Israeli occupation, along with the lack of funding resources. The PNA started in 1995 a number of TSM studies aiming at enhancing the traffic conditions and facilitating the achievement of sustainable built environment. These concerns were reflected on the educational level by designing an undergraduate elective course in TSM at An-Najah National University.The course was designed to meet specific learning outcomes and competencies. The contents and the teaching-learning approaches are continuously reviewed and enhanced. Students are trained to study, evaluate, propose, and test traffic congestion reduction measures to improve safety, and promote sustainable environment. Furthermore, they are trained to manage and improve the efficiency of traffic systems supply and demand at reasonable costs. A book was developed for the course summarizing the concepts, the international experience, and the local applications. Students are encouraged to adopt graduation projects involving TSM applications. Multimedia contents were developed and used through the teaching-learning process. Feedback from students, municipalities, and local agencies was considered to improve the course contents. The paper also highlights the use of the triangulation approach for evaluation and assessment of student’s performance.
  Authors: Abu-Eisheh, Sameer A.; Ghanim, Mohammad
  Authors: Abu-Eisheh, Sameer A.; Ghanim, Mohammad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-4009
• Predicting Road Accidents and Prioritizing Road Safety Improvement Measures in Developing Countries Using Adapted Traffic Conflict Techniques
  Abstract: Road accidents in developing countries are increasing at an alarming rate. Deaths due to road accidents are becoming the single biggest killer in developing countries. Although there is a pressing need for improving road safety, it has been observed that improvement measures are not taken up systematically. Unless all stakeholders are involved and a system wide road safety approach is considered, local improvements will not reduce the total number of accidents. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify and undertake prioritized road safety improvement actions across the roadway system. In countries like India, where road accidents are not recorded accurately, data on causes of various types of accidents is not readily available hindering policy making in planning and implementing road safety improvement measures.In this research, a mathematical model for predicting road accidents and prioritizing road safety improvement measures is introduced for Indian road conditions. An adapted version of the Traffic Conflict Techniques is used to assess the main causes of accidents on Indian roads. Analysis and results of the conflict data are used to develop a mathematical model to identify and prioritize road safety measures. Recommendations made in this study can be used by agencies with limited resources to employ proposed low cost techniques suggested in this research to identify high priority road safety issues and prioritize their respective road safety improvement initiatives.
  Authors: Buddharaju, Ramesh; Jha, Manoj K.; Kang, Min-Wook; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Ponnada, Markandeya Raju
  Authors: Buddharaju, Ramesh; Jha, Manoj K.; Kang, Min-Wook; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Ponnada, Markandeya Raju
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-5124
• Implications from South Korea's Smart Card Operation
  Authors: Shin, Hee Cheol
  Authors: Shin, Hee Cheol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2380
• Application of Generalized Estimating Equations for Crash Frequency Modeling in Developing Countries
  Authors: Li, Zhibin
  Authors: Li, Zhibin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-0891
• Development and Evaluation of Traffic Systems Management Course for Sustainable Built Environment in Developing Countries
  Authors: Abu-Eisheh, Sameer
  Authors: Abu-Eisheh, Sameer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-4009