2013 Session: 413

• Understanding the Impact of Gasoline Price Changes on Traffic Safety: A Time Geography Approach
  Abstract: The impact of gasoline price changes on traffic safety has received increasing attention in empirical studies. In this study, we use time geography to provide a theoretical framework for examining the effects of time-varying fluctuations in gasoline prices and their relationship to traffic safety in a case study of Mississippi from April 2004 to December 2010. Application of time geography theory suggests that gasoline prices act as one type of capability constraint of the space-time path. As gasoline prices increase (that is, as the capability constraint becomes stronger), we hypothesize traffic crash rates decrease, and they decrease more for groups for whom the constraint is stronger. The results corroborate the hypotheses and suggest that gasoline prices have stronger effects on reducing less severe crashes and negligible effects on reducing fatal crashes. Gasoline price effects on reducing crashes start at a 9-month lag, peak at a 12-month lag, and diminish after an 18-month lag.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Porter, Jeremy; Cosby, Arthur G.; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Porter, Jeremy; Cosby, Arthur G.; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-1687
• From Super Block to Small Block: Road Network Transformation and Its Impact
  Abstract: Super block and giant road network have been a dominant form of China¡¯s new urban development. This directly leads to numerous urban problems, such as high auto dependency, serious congestion, and unlivable communities. Transforming to a new urban form with human-scale blocks and fine-grain grid road network is drawing much attention recently. The transformation needs to answer a series of questions: what will be its impact on road capacity? How to deal with the cost re-arrangement between different players of road construction, maintenance, and management? Following a general discussion on related factors and approaches for a solution, these issues are further analyzed using the example of the core area of Chenggong new town in Kunming, China. The case study shows that the concern about a negative impact on road network capacity is unfounded, and through reasonable cost restructuring and management, a win-win situation is possible for all players of road construction, maintenance, and management thus an optimized societal cost-benefit arrangement can be reached in the transformation.
  Authors: Wang, Zhigao; Li, Yinghao; Li, Jungen; Li, Liang
  Authors: Wang, Zhigao; Li, Yinghao; Li, Jungen; Li, Liang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-2349
• Establishing Values of Time for Freight Trucks to Better Understand the Impact of Toll Policies
  Abstract: Many freight models have considered only travel time as the path building criterion, but truck drivers are sensitive to both time and cost when choosing routes. In addition, a key variable in understanding a driver’s choice when in the presence of tolls is the value of time. Research has suggested that the value of time varies considerably by the parameters of the haul, principally the type of truck and the commodity carried. Behavioral methods of ascertaining passenger values of time are limited in the variety of values of time that can be conveniently obtained, while there are a large number of commodities and truck types that can carry them. Fundamentally, truck drivers attempt to minimize costs, although they may do so imperfectly. This paper uses a policy-sensitive truck cost model to obtain values of time and tests those values of time on a full-scale simulation.A highly-detailed cost model of trucking was previously developed by our research team (1) for the purposes of policy analysis. This cost model originally followed industry practice by basing most cost components on the length of haul, which would imply that truckers would mostly minimize distance when choosing routes. However, many cost components are more logically related to the time duration of the haul. This leads to two possible hypotheses, time and distance-based costs and distance-based costs, each resulting in different values of time.The values of time were tested by simulating truck traffic in a 10-state region that included numerous toll facilities. Comparisons of the simulation results to actual traffic data from ATR stations from the State of Ohio and from counts provided by the Ohio Turnpike Authority suggest that the values of time more closely follow the time and distance-based cost hypothesis.
  Authors: Horowitz, Alan J.; Hussein, Mazen; Mei, Qinfen
  Authors: Horowitz, Alan J.; Hussein, Mazen; Mei, Qinfen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-0865
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Statewide Multimodal Planning: Current Practice at State Departments of Transportation
  Abstract: This paper summarizes the results of a national survey of state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) focusing on the extent to which they emphasize multimodal solutions in transportation planning. The results offer insights into the size, scope, and progress states have been making in the area of multimodal planning since passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991. The on-line survey instrument was distributed to all fifty state DOTs and a total of 35 responses were collected. It appears that some of the key challenges that limited the adoption of multimodal planning approaches in earlier decades are still considered challenges today and the current “snapshot” of multimodal planning suggests that most state transportation agencies still do not use evaluation criteria to compare multiple modal options. Not surprisingly, constraints and limitations on project eligibility because of funding source restrictions was identified as the major limitation to advances in multimodal planning and program development, followed by the need to follow agency standard operating procedures, and by an agency’s history and culture of highway dominated planning. However, changes are clearly taking place, and it is a positive sign that many state officials (20 out of 35) conclude that real progress has been made in furthering multimodal planning objectives over the past 10 years.
  Authors: Sonnenberg, Anthon; Southworth, Frank; Meyer, Michael; Comer, Carol
  Authors: Sonnenberg, Anthon; Southworth, Frank; Meyer, Michael; Comer, Carol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-2882
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Comparison Between Gravity and Destination Choice Models for Trip Distribution in Maryland
  Abstract: Gravity models have been widely used in the trip distribution stage of travel demand models over decades. Recent advancements in research suggest that the destination choice model is a preferred trip distribution method rather than the gravity model. In this paper, a comparison of destination choice model and gravity model is presented using a real case study applied within the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model. The gravity model is formulated as a function of travel time and origin-destination¡¯s production¨Cattraction ability and the destination choice model is based upon the utility maximization principle. Household Travel Survey data collected in the Baltimore-Washington region is used to estimate and calibrate the parameters of both models. Considering the wide spectrum of diversity in growth pattern in the Baltimore-Washington survey data, the study area is divided into eight regions to reflect region specific travel behavior. From the result, it is found that a destination choice model better replicates the observed trip length and origin-destination matrix for home based work (HBW) trips. In contrast, the gravity model does not succeed in accurately estimating trip attractions when compared to the survey data. The result shows that a destination choice model performs better than a gravity model in this a statewide model. This research can be used as a tool to assist in choosing a trip distribution method for travel demand modeling.
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Wang, Yanli; Zhu, Xiaoyu; Moeckel, Rolf; Mahapatra, Subrat
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Wang, Yanli; Zhu, Xiaoyu; Moeckel, Rolf; Mahapatra, Subrat
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-3196
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Development of Maryland Statewide Transportation Model and Its Application in Scenario Planning
  Abstract: Maryland has a long history of being a leader in land use planning and was an early adopter of the concept of smart growth for sustainable development. The Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) is the first statewide travel demand model developed for the Washington-Baltimore region. Its primary development has occurred through the course of the last three years (2009-2012). A summary of the model structure is presented in this paper. The rationale for the MSTM’s development is discussed in the paper followed by a description of the study area and model structure. The novelty of the MSTM is the use of a three-layer structure. The first layer includes macro scale travel patterns from the entire U.S. and the third layer includes travel patterns at a finer urban level detail. The second layer is statewide in scope and is an amalgamation of the first and third layer. The trip-based model consists of eighteen trip purposes that are cross-classified by five income categories, eleven modes of travel, and four time-of-day periods. The model components have been estimated and calibrated using the results of household travel surveys done across the major metropolitan areas in the state during 2006 and 2007. The MSTM has been validated against traffic counts and vehicle miles travel data for the year 2007. Further, the model is used in scenario planning by analyzing the model sensitivity to various policies currently being considered at the statewide level with a 2030 planning horizon. Four scenarios are considered in the sensitivity analysis and each scenario was compared to a reference case. All scenario results provide greater insights to policy decision making. This tool can be used as an instrument for statewide travel demand modeling in Maryland and policy decision making for scenario planning.
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Moeckel, Rolf; Mahapatra, Subrat; Tadayon, Morteza
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Moeckel, Rolf; Mahapatra, Subrat; Tadayon, Morteza
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-5024
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Understanding the Impact of Gasoline Price Changes on Traffic Safety: A Time Geography Approach
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing
  Keywords: poster presentation; poster design; poster template
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-1687
• Development of Maryland Statewide Transportation Model and Its Application in Scenario Planning
  Authors: Welch, Timothy
  Authors: Welch, Timothy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-5024
• Establishing Values of Time for Freight Trucks to Better Understand the Impact of Toll Policies
  Authors: Horowitz, Alan
  Authors: Horowitz, Alan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-0865