2013 Session: 447

• Travel Choice Models That Generate Preferences for Compromise Alternatives: Empirical Comparison
  Abstract: Compromise alternatives have an intermediate performance on each or most attributes rather than having a poor performance on some attributes and a strong performance on others. The relative popularity of compromise alternatives among decision-makers has been convincingly established in a wide range of decision contexts. We discuss three choice models that capture a potential preference for compromise alternatives. One approach, which is introduced in this paper, involves the construction of a so-called compromise variable which indicates to what extent (i.e., on how many attributes) a given alternative is a compromise alternative in its choice set. Another approach consists of the recently introduced random regret-model form, where the popularity of compromise alternatives emerges endogenously from the regret minimization-based decision rule. A third approach consists of the contextual concavity model, which is known for favoring compromise alternatives by means of a locally concave utility function. Estimation results on a stated route choice dataset show that, in terms of model fit and predictive ability, the contextual concavity and random regret models appear to perform better than the model that contains an added compromise variable.
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Bierlaire, Michel
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Bierlaire, Michel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-0086
• Integrated Model of Attribute and Benefit Activation in Individuals’ Mental Representations of Multidimensional Decision Problems
  Abstract: Individuals’ mental representations of complex decision problems are simplifications of reality that allow them to understand how well different concrete (travel) choice alternatives fulfill their own underlying more abstract needs. Depending on the specific (concrete) attribute and (abstract) benefit components that are activated in the individual’s mental representation and how these components are linked, individuals’ evaluation of decision alternatives may differ. This is especially prominent in the case of multi-dimensional activity-travel decision problems where attributes and benefits may or may not be nested within dimensions. This study introduces a formal model of the activation of attributes and benefits and their links in individuals’ mental representations. The approach allows for tests of differences in activation of mental representation components across individuals and across choice situations. It can guide the selection of (tailored) marketing communications (soft policies) or the development of new travel demand management strategies that target individuals in a specific activity-travel context. The model is illustrated using data collected in an interactive online survey of individuals’ mental representations of a complex shopping decision problem involving a choice of shopping location, transportation mode, and shopping time.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Dellaert, Benedict G.C.; Horeni, Oliver; Liberali, Jordana; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Dellaert, Benedict G.C.; Horeni, Oliver; Liberali, Jordana; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-1364
• Simple Test for Identifying Violations of Random Utility Model
  Abstract: In this paper, we show that the key condition in determining the consistency of discrete choice data with the Random Utility Model (RUM) is regularity, i.e. choice probability should not increase as the choice set is extended. We implement this condition as an empirical test within the framework of 3-alternative nested logit (i.e. treating nests as reduced choice sets), showing that any regularity failures will relate to inter-nest choices (i.e. preference reversals in relation to the lone alternative), and that the prevalence of such failures will be determined by the magnitude of the structural parameter (reflecting the degree of similarity between nested alternatives) and the relative choice shares for the 3 alternatives. More specifically, we find that if ?<0, then regularity will be contravened (i.e. preferences are non-RUM), whereas if 00, then regularity will be obeyed (i.e. preferences are RUM). The size of will depend upon the relative choice shares. We illustrate our findings empirically, showing that (unwittingly) fitting RUM to data which are non-RUM could have implications for model fit, willingness-to-pay and forecasts. We conclude that the limits 0
  Authors: Batley, Richard; Hess, Stephane
  Authors: Batley, Richard; Hess, Stephane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-2255
• Descriptive Bayesian Approach to Modeling and Calibrating Drivers' En Route Diversion Behavior
  Abstract: This paper presents a Bayesian approach for modeling and calibrating drivers' en-route route changing decision with behavior data collected from laboratory driving simulators and field blue-tooth detectors. The behavior models are not based on assumptions of perfect rationality. Instead, a novel descriptive approach based on naive Bayes rules is proposed and demonstrated. The en-route diversion model is first estimated with behavior data from a driving simulator. Subsequently, the model is re-calibrated for Maryland, based on blue-tooth detector data, and applied to analyze two dynamic message sign (DMS) scenarios on I-95 and I-895. This calibration method allows researchers and practitioners to transfer the en-route diversion model to other regions based on local observations. Future research can integrate this en-route diversion model with microscopic traffic simulators, dynamic traffic assignment models, and/or activity/agent-based travel demand models for various traffic operations and transportation planning applications.
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3334
• Extending Relative Utility Model with Multiple Reference Points to Incorporate Asymmetric, Nonlinear Response Curvature
  Abstract: This study integrates the concepts of relative utility and prospect to represent the context dependence in travel choice behavior by incorporating asymmetric and non-linear responses. Relative utility argues that utility is only meaningful relative to some reference point(s) and it conceptually allows the existence of multiple reference points in a systematic way. Prospect theory argues that people's decisions tend to be more sensitive to losses than to gains, where gains and losses are defined with respect to a reference point, but it has not been concerned about how to specify the reference point(s). On the other hand, even though the concept of relative utility could accommodate nonlinear utility structures, no study has been done to capture the non-linearity caused by peoplefs asymmetric responses to gains and losses. Theoretically, the integrated model can be used to express various types of context dependencies. The effectiveness of the integrated model is confirmed using a stated preference data with 1,872 samples on the joint choice of departure time and driving route under the provision of dynamic travel information, collected in Beijing of China in May 2008. Sensitivity of the model performance to different values of prospect parameters is also analyzed. Influential factors to the choice behavior are also explored.
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi; Yu, Biying; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi; Yu, Biying; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3508
• Travel Choice Models That Generate Preferences for Compromise Alternatives: Empirical Comparison
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-0086
• Integrated Model of Attribute and Benefit Activation in Individuals' Mental Representations of Multidimensional Decision Problems
  Authors: Arentze, Theo
  Authors: Arentze, Theo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-1364
• Extending Relative Utility Model with Multiple Reference Points to Incorporate Asymmetric, Nonlinear Response Curvature
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3508
• Simple Test for Identifying Violations of Random Utility Model
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-2255
• Descriptive Bayesian Approach to Modeling and Calibrating Drivers' En Route Diversion Behavior
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3334