2013 Session: 450

• Rising Gasoline Prices and Residential Relocation Closer to Workplaces
  Abstract: Residential relocation is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline price changes as a potential driving factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation within the location theory framework using the 1996–2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with fewer households relocating but a higher percentage of movers moving closer to workplaces. The effects diminish after three years. The direct effects are stronger than the indirect effects through disposable income. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on housing policies and transportation planning.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-1686
• Demographic Microsimulation Model for Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Model System
  Abstract: The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model that dynamically evolves the urban spatial form, economic structure, demographics and travel behavior over time for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA). This paper presents the ILUTE Demographic Updating Module (I-DUM), which updates the residential population demographics throughout the simulation. Given a synthetic base population, I-DUM updates the attributes of the agents at each time step. New agents are introduced through birth and in-migration, while agents exit through death and out-migration events. Unions between agents are formed through a marriage market, while a divorce model dissolves existing ones. Transitions to new households are also triggered by a move-out model. In addition to its comprehensive scope, I-DUM is a closed demographic model where social networks are built and maintained throughout the simulation. Maintaining social connections brings some advantages for modeling travel behavior and location choice. I-DUM is being tested against a twenty-year (1986-2006) period using a 100% synthetic GTHA population (4.1 million persons, 1.1 million families, 1.4 million households). The results are compared against historical observations across multiple dimensions. In general, I-DUM exhibits a strong performance, and the authors have confidence that it can maintain the validity of inputs to the other behavioral models in ILUTE. I-DUM's implementation has also been parallelized which brings significant performance improvements. Starting with over 6.5 million agents (which grows past 10 million), the simulation takes just under 10 minutes to complete a twenty-year run.
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco; Miller, Eric J.
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco; Miller, Eric J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-3445
• A Spatial Multivariate Count Model for Firm Location Decisions
  Abstract: This paper proposes a new spatial multivariate model to predict the count of new businesses at a county level in the State of Texas. Several important factors including agglomeration economies/diseconomies, industrial specialization indices, human capital, fiscal conditions, transportation infrastructure and land development characteristics are considered. The results highlight the need to use a multivariate modeling system for the analysis of business counts by sector type, while also accommodating spatial dependence effects in business counts.
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R.; Singh, Palvinder
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R.; Singh, Palvinder
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-4253
• Exploring Residential Tenure and Housing Type Decisions and Household Activity Engagement
  Abstract: Household locations play important roles in the spatial distribution of household activities and travel decisions, and, subsequently, in long-term forecasting models. This study examines the relationship between housing location choices, time allocation to out-of-home activities and other socioeconomic attributes related to their lifecycle stage. A choice model of housing tenure and type is formulated and estimated to provide a methodological framework for examining the impacts of household activity engagement and lifecycle stage. Household activity engagement is represented through factor scores from a factor analysis of the proportion of time households spend on different activity types. The scores of the identified factors are used in a choice model of tenure and housing type, specified as a nested-logit, in addition to other household attributes. Furthermore, households are segmented into different lifecycle stages based on household size and age of household member. Results from this study show that the lifecycle stage of the household has a significant statistical impact on the tenure choice to rent relative to the choice to own a home. With respect to the household activity time allocation, time allocated to eating, recreation and social activities seem to have the strongest statistical significance with respect to the choice of tenure and housing type. Overall, the results suggest there is a relationship among tenure and housing type choice, household attributes and activity time allocation.
  Authors: Chen, Roger B.; Gehrke, Steven R.; Clifton, Kelly J.; Liu, Jenny; Jang, Yunemi
  Authors: Chen, Roger B.; Gehrke, Steven R.; Clifton, Kelly J.; Liu, Jenny; Jang, Yunemi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-3895
• Rising Gasoline Prices and Residential Relocation Closer to Workplaces
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-1686
• Exploring Residential Tenure and Housing Type Decisions and Household Activity Engagement
  Authors: Chen, Roger
  Authors: Chen, Roger
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-3895
• Demographic Microsimulation Model for Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Model System
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-3445
• A Spatial Multivariate Count Model for Firm Location Decisions
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-4253