2013 Session: 487

• Mode Choice Modeling for Long-Distance Travel
  Abstract: With the ongoing debates from Florida to California and throughout the country concerning the benefits of high-speed rail, there is a renewed interest in intercity mode choice modeling. The investments for improving long-distance travel are substantial and may have serious impacts on travel demand, the environment and the economy. As such, alternatives for improving long-distance travel require careful evaluation before decisions are made on the form and design of long-distance travel infrastructure. A new nested multinomial logit mode-choice model has been developed that is sensitive to travel costs, distance, transit station accessibility, service frequency, number of transfers and parking costs. On the auto side the model considers the modes drive-alone and shared-ride with 2, 3 and 4 or more passengers. The transit side models regional bus, rail and air as modal options. To explore the model sensitivities, scenarios on increased gasoline prices and improved bus service are described.After a short introduction, the state-of-the-art of mode choice modeling is reviewed. Section 3 explains how total travel demand is generated, and section 4 describes the mode choice model developed in this paper. Section 5 compares parameters in this model with parameters estimated elsewhere. Section 6 describes the application to the North Carolina Statewide Transportation Model (NCSTM) and section 7 shows the scenario application. The paper ends with conclusions and future research.
  Authors: Moeckel, Rolf; Donnelly, Rick; Fussell, Rhett
  Authors: Moeckel, Rolf; Donnelly, Rick; Fussell, Rhett
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-1796
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Discrete-Continuous Choice Model with Multiple Budget Constraints, Imperfect and Perfect Substitutes, and Price Variation: Application to Household Vacation Travel Behavior
  Abstract: This study formulates and applies a joint model of annual, household vacation destination and mode choices to simultaneously analyze the vacation destinations that a household visits over an entire year, along with the time and money allocations and the travel mode to each of the visited destinations. The proposed formulation enhances the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) modeling framework in several ways. First, an extended MDCEV framework is proposed to simultaneously consider the influence of both time and money budget constraints in household vacation travel decisions, as opposed to most previous MDCEV applications that consider only a single budget constraint. Second, the time- and money-constrained MDCEV framework of vacation destination choices is integrated with a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode choice. The integrated framework recognizes that the vacation destinations are imperfect substitutes in that a household can potentially choose to visit multiple destinations over a year, while the travel mode alternatives to a destination are perfect substitutes in that only one primary mode of travel is chosen. Third, the proposed framework not only accommodates multiple budget constraints and a mix of imperfect and perfect substitutes in the choice set, but also recognizes the variation in prices across both imperfect and perfect substitutes. Finally, the paper highlights important identification issues related to the specification of MDCEV models with multiple budget constraints. Simple normalizations are proposed that help with parameter identification as well as facilitate the derivation of closed form probability expressions. The proposed framework is applied to the 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS), with the United States divided into 210 alternative vacation destinations. In addition to demonstrating the importance of above-discussed methodological extensions, the empirical model provides insights into the determinants of households’ vacation destination and mode choices and related time and money allocation behavior. The model can be incorporated into a larger national travel modeling framework for predicting the national-level origin-destination flows for long-distance vacation travel.
  Authors: Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof; Sivaraman, Vijayaraghavan
  Authors: Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof; Sivaraman, Vijayaraghavan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-1885
• Modeling Framework for Long-Distance Pleasure Travel Supply Analysis
  Abstract: The massive vehicle-miles and person-miles traveled on long distance trips have generated broad impacts on multiple aspects of the society. However, modeling long distance travel presents a large-scale problem with great complexity, and knowledge about long distance travel is an acknowledged incomplete piece compared to the intra-urban travel, which has been studied in adequate depth and multiple dimensions. One imperative issue is the scarcity of the supply-side information for long distance travel, which embraces the service quality of the transportation infrastructure and costs for competing traveling options. Focusing on the long distance pleasure travel over the national highways, this study proposes an innovative and comprehensive modeling framework to fill the data gap, as well as to gain knowledge and insights of distributive patterns of long distance pleasure travel at interregional level, using available data sources. Meanwhile, a novel impedance model is presented to incorporate both tangible (travel data) and intangible attributes (contextual data) in pleasure travel into the modeling framework. The case study further demonstrates the feasibility of the modeling framework and its capability of capturing long distance travelers’ behavior. The modeling framework also provides quantitative system-wide indicators and performance measures to facilitate decision making in transportation policies, investments, and operations.
  Authors: Xiao, Sa; Yu, Runze; Wang, Yinhai
  Authors: Xiao, Sa; Yu, Runze; Wang, Yinhai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-3384
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Modeling Long-Distance Travel in the United Kingdom
  Abstract: Trips over 50 miles in length account for less than one fortieth of the trips, but about a third of all distance travelled within Great Britain. Because of the small proportion of all travel they form, long-distance trips may not be adequately represented in national databases and models. However, because they account for a substantial proportion of total distance travelled, particularly on motorways and rail, these trips are important in terms of transport policy and have a substantial impact on congestion. Moreover, study of existing data indicates that travellers’ behaviour in long-distance journeys differs substantially from routine journeys. Not only is the set of available modes different, but the profile of travellers is substantially different, with income playing an important role in both travel frequency and mode choice. Additionally, model responsiveness and values of time vary significantly with journey length. For these reasons, treatment of the specific properties of long-distance travel is essential for appraising the impact of transport policy aimed at this market, such as high-speed rail, highway construction and management policies and policies directed towards domestic air travel.This paper describes the development of a model to address these policy issues. The specific aim of the modelling work is to provide empirical evidence on the relative importance of mode, destination and frequency responses for long-distance travel models. The models that have been developed form the basis for a forecasting model that can be used for the appraisal of a wide range of transport policy aimed at long-distance journeys.
  Authors: Rohr, Charlene; Fox, James; Daly, Andrew; Patruni, Bhanu; Patil, Sunil; Tsang, Flavia
  Authors: Rohr, Charlene; Fox, James; Daly, Andrew; Patruni, Bhanu; Patil, Sunil; Tsang, Flavia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-3497
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Modeling Framework for Long-Distance Pleasure Travel Supply Analysis
  Authors: Xiao, Sa
  Authors: Xiao, Sa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-3384
• Discrete-Continuous Choice Model with Multiple Budget Constraints, Imperfect and Perfect Substitutes, and Price Variation: Application to Household Vacation Travel Behavior
  Authors: Sivaraman, Vijayaraghavan
  Authors: Sivaraman, Vijayaraghavan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-1885
• Mode Choice Modeling for Long-Distance Travel
  Authors: Moeckel, Rolf
  Authors: Moeckel, Rolf
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-1796
• Modeling Long-Distance Travel in the United Kingdom
  Authors: Rohr, Charlene
  Authors: Rohr, Charlene
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 487
  Paper Number: 13-3497