2013 Session: 503

• Accounting for Timing and Investment Constraints in Vehicle Deployment Analyses
  Abstract: This paper addresses two ways to “reality check” scenarios of the deployment of advanced road vehicles (advanced hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, etc.) – (1) a suggested timeline for the stages of vehicle deployment, to check whether the timing of the projected deployment is realistic, and (2) a method for evaluating the “business case” for such deployment using decision tree analysis. The great majority of scenario analyses do not address the “supply side” of the scenario – whether investors would likely proceed with the capital investments required to fund the vehicle deployment, given the substantial risks involved. Further work is needed to allow the proposed method to be readily used by researchers, including development of a data base of critical capital investments required for vehicle deployment (e.g., battery manufacturing plants, vehicle assembly lines). Also, the timeline should be extended to encompass development of a refueling infrastructure for alternatively fueled vehicles.
  Authors: Plotkin, Steven Edward; Stephens, Thomas S; McManus, Walter S.
  Authors: Plotkin, Steven Edward; Stephens, Thomas S; McManus, Walter S.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0283
• Actors’ Positions and Inclinations Toward Electromobility System in France
  Abstract: The electromobility system of actors not only comprises the usual stakeholders involved in individual mobility, such as car manufacturers and drivers, but also electricity suppliers, service providers and above all public authorities. With the rising number of actors concerned, the electromobility system will require greater coordination and closer cooperation between existing and new, developing stakeholders than is currently the case. This paper aims to present a typology of the electromobility system’s stakeholders. Our work discusses the results of over 30 interviews (conducted in 2010 and 2011) with representatives of (potential) stakeholders who will probably have a major influence on the developing electromobility system. We focus on the role, interests and difficulties which each actor expects to encounter with the arrival of electric vehicles. We show how their stable, historical position in the system is likely to change and which adaptation strategies are likely, to cope with the changing environment. Analysing the probable forms of interdependence between actors in the electromobility system can also help us to highlight the lack of some essential links in the current system of actors.
  Authors: Sadeghian, Shadi; Leurent, Fabien M.; Thébert, Mariane; Sajous, Patricia
  Authors: Sadeghian, Shadi; Leurent, Fabien M.; Thébert, Mariane; Sajous, Patricia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0681
• Hydrogen Fuels: Exploring Consumer Preferences Toward Alternative Hydrogen Production Methods
  Abstract: Although previous research indicates that the general attitude towards to the use of hydrogen as a fuel is positive, it is not clear to what extent this depends on the way it is produced. This study aims to fill this gap by exploring citizens’ beliefs and preferences for five hydrogen production methods. It reports the results based on a small scale survey completed by lay citizens in the Netherlands. Results indicate that hydrogen produced by means of renewable energy sources, especially from solar-power is preferred over nuclear- and fossil-based production methods. Results also suggest that the different hydrogen production methods are assessed through different sets of criteria. The results imply that consumers’ preference towards hydrogen as a car-fuel may change accordingly to the way in which the fuel is produced. We argue that the preference towards the way hydrogen is produced should be taken into account if acceptance of hydrogen is studied.
  Authors: Molin, Eric; Di Ruggero, Olga
  Authors: Molin, Eric; Di Ruggero, Olga
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0666
• Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
  Abstract: As demand for and purchase of electric vehicles rise, so will the demand for public charging stations. Not all residents have access to electricity where they park and these residents will need a reliable location to go and recharge their vehicles. The City of Seattle Office of Sustainability and Environment was interested in gauging the demand for charging stations among Seattle residents who are ‘garage orphans’. A garage orphan is defined as a resident who currently has no off-street parking at their residence or if they have off-street parking, have no access to electricity in their off-street parking spot. The City wanted to find out the following:1.An estimate of how many garage orphans exist2.How many of these garage orphans either have, or are likely to purchase an electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle3.What charging options are residents likely to use and why4.How much are residents willing to pay to charge their vehicles at a public charging stationPRR worked with the City Assessor’s office to identify likely areas in the city where ‘garage orphan’ properties would be located. We then mailed a survey invite letter and paper survey to 3,000 single-family homes and 3,000 apartment dwellers. The survey could be completed on paper, online or by phone. A total of 850 garage orphans completed the survey.We also conducted two focus groups with garage orphans for more in-depth analysis. Finally, we developed an online panel of over 500 garage orphans for further research as needed.The information needs of this especially hard-to-reach market segment was important to the City of Seattle’s Office of Sustainability as they look to assess the demand for public charging stations.
  Authors: Brown, Bruce; Pinto de Bader, Sandra; Dondi, Leona
  Authors: Brown, Bruce; Pinto de Bader, Sandra; Dondi, Leona
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0265
• Projecting Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Japanese Passenger Cars up to 2020: Using Index Decomposition Techniques
  Abstract: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from car travel is a key factor for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in most countries. Projecting CO2 emissions by quantitatively identifying driving forces is helpful to construct forecasting and backcasting@scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions. Index decomposition methods have been widely used for quantitative identification of historical trends in factors related to changes in objective variables when examining environmental and energy issues; however, index decomposition methods have been rarely used for projecting CO2 emissions. A method, called Modified Laspeyres Index method for Projecting (PMLI method), was developed for projecting CO2 emissions from car travel using index decomposition techniques. CO2 emissions from Japanese passenger cars up to 2020 were then projected by using the PMLI method. The CO2 emissions in 2020 will decrease to the 1990 level based on trends in factors observed over the period 2001 to 2005. Decreases in travel distance per passenger car in use and improvement of actual road fuel efficiency per average car weight in use will primarily induce these decreases. The PMLI method enables tracing the future path of CO2 emissions from car travel by quantitatively identifying the driving forces based on historical trends, and it presents clear ideas for constructing precise forecasting and backcasting scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions from car travel. This paper would contribute to the development of decomposition methodology of projecting objective variables and to understanding future CO2 emissions from car travel in Japan.
  Authors: Mishina, Yoshinori; Muromachi, Yasunori
  Authors: Mishina, Yoshinori; Muromachi, Yasunori
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0286
• Biodiesel from Microalgae in Lagoons: Acceptable Alternative Fuel for the Transportation Crunch?
  Abstract: One of the major reasons for microalgae popularity as an acceptable fuel source is their potential to maximize the productivity, e.g. gallons of oil or fuel produced per acre per year, converting the energy of solar photons during the process of CO2 fixation into biomass energy benefiting the environment. Marketing the generated co-products, termed post extraction algal residue (PEAR) could make the transportation fuel viable from microalgae. These self-contained microbial factories can convert sunlight and CO2 into biofuel are the fastest growing plants and 50% of their weight is oil.The main objective of this research is the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the biofuel obtained from microalgae and focuses on the energetic and environmental feasibility of this fuel for use in the transportation sector. This evaluation includes the identification of the obstacles and limitations of the process in terms of energy and environmental performance. Another important aspect of this work is the need for improvement of product processing and recovery that includes mechanical and energy intensive processes like centrifugation, filtration, flocculation, and cell disruption.The results obtained so far show that the various strains of microalgae used (nearby lagoons in Portugal and Spain) offer a huge prospect of biodiesel production.KEYWORDS: Biodiesel, microalgae, alternative fuel, lagoon.
  Authors: Coelho, Margarida Cabrita; Dutta, Smritikana; Neto, Fernando
  Authors: Coelho, Margarida Cabrita; Dutta, Smritikana; Neto, Fernando
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0767
• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies in Road Freight Transport in Mexico
  Abstract: It is estimated that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road freight transport in Mexico during 2010 were about 37MtCO2 (Carbon Dioxide Mega Tones), which represents about 24% of national transport emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address mitigation actions for this sector. To that end, this study proposes and analyzes different mitigation strategies, which include improving vehicle technologies, implementing ecodriving techniques, promoting the use of highways, increasing intermodal transport, reactivating the rail system and building beltways for both freight trucks and rail.The “bottom-up” methodology presented in this study was used to forecast the emissions of the road freight sector from 2010 to 2050. The obtained model was also used to calculate the mitigation potential for the proposed mitigation strategies. A maximum cumulative reduction of more than 380 MtCO2 by 2050 might be reached if all the strategies are applied simultaneously. However, in order to determine a more realistic plan of action, a multi-criteria analysis was performed with a panel of experts. As a result, the technological and operational improvements, the use of highways and the construction of beltways for trucks were considered the measures with higher priority. If those measures are applied in parallel, a potential reduction of 340 MtCO2 may be obtained by 2050.Finally, a “Measurement, Reporting and Verification” mechanism was determined and the main actors involved in that process were identified. In conclusion, freight transport in Mexico contributes highly to GHG emissions and relatively simple actions such as the implementation of new technologies and ecodriving techniques might bring important reduction of GHG emissions in Mexico. However, other complex strategies, such as beltways construction and reactivation of the rail system must be also taken into consideration as part of a National Development Strategy.
  Authors: Menendez, Cynthia; Lobo, Adriana; Martinez, Hilda; Ferreira, Lia; Dartois, Laurent
  Authors: Menendez, Cynthia; Lobo, Adriana; Martinez, Hilda; Ferreira, Lia; Dartois, Laurent
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0992
• Valuation of Plug-in Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits
  Abstract: We assess the economic value of life cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional, hybrid-electric (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles in the U.S. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO2 emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. While large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions-intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy J.; Chester, Mikhail; Jaramillo, Paulina; Samaras, Constantine; Shiau, Ching-Shin; Lave, Lester B.
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy J.; Chester, Mikhail; Jaramillo, Paulina; Samaras, Constantine; Shiau, Ching-Shin; Lave, Lester B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1224
• Sustainable Biofuel Supply Chain Planning and Management Under Uncertainty
  Abstract: In this study, “environmental thinking” is integrated in sustainable biofuel supply chain planning and management and a multi-objective modeling framework is developed. It is aimed at seeking best-compromise solutions in achieving economic and environmental sustainability in supplying biofuels from bio-wastes, and simultaneously satisfying demand, resource, and technology constraints. In addition to the least-cost objective, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction as another objective is integrated into the modeling framework, and carbon footprints will be assessed in the life-cycle assessment (LCA) concept framework. This ensures that GHG reduction is factored in the system strategic planning and tactical decision making and enables the GHG mitigation strategies in biofuel supply chains. Further, the biomass-to-biofuel conversion efficiency depends on the technology and can be highly uncertain due to the uncertainties inherent in the conversion processes. In this study, the uncertainty has been explicitly considered in the proposed model in an integrative manner. A multi-objective, mix-integer stochastic programming model is proposed and solved by using a compromise method, a subclass of the goal programming method. The model is used to evaluate the economic potentials and environmental impacts for sustainable growth of cellulosic biofuel in California as a case study. It is found, significant trade-offs exist between economic competitiveness and environmental quality and the effects of uncertainty on multi-criteria decision making vary with the choice of modeling approach.
  Authors: Xie, Fei; Huang, Yongxi
  Authors: Xie, Fei; Huang, Yongxi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1083
• Catching the PHEVer: Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion with Agent-Based Mixed Logit Model of Vehicle Choice
  Abstract: In this research, I develop then merge two separate models to simulate electric vehicle diffusion through recreation of the Boston metropolitan statistical area (MSA) vehicle market place. The first model is a mixed (random parameters) logistic regression applied to data from the US Department of Transportation’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second, agent-based model simulates social network interactions through which the agents’ vehicle choice sets are endogenously determined. Parameters from the first model are then applied to the choice sets determined in the second. Social network effects are utilized to determine the vehicle power types available in a consumer’s choice set, the inclusion being spurred by exceeding agents’ willingness-to-consider thresholds through simulated idea diffusion. Results indicate that electric vehicles as a percentages of vehicle stock range from 1% in the most pessimistic scenario to 22% in the most optimistic scenario in the Boston MSA in the year 2030. Financial incentive availability has an overall positive effect on EV vehicle stock percentages, but BEV and PHEV model-level stock percentages have mixed resultant impacts; hybrid vehicles are demonstrated to be the most responsive to financial policy availability assumptions. Although commonly indicated as a potential hindrance to EV diffusion, battery cost scenarios have relatively small impacts on EV diffusion in comparison to other assumptions. Results indicate that range assumptions dramatically effect both BEV and PHEV deployment. Pessimistic range assumptions decrease overall PHEV and BEV percentages of vehicle stock by 50% and 30% relative to the EPA-estimated range scenarios, respectively.
  Authors: Brown, Maxwell Leonard
  Authors: Brown, Maxwell Leonard
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1099
• Economics of Electrifying North American Railways
  Abstract: As fuel costs increase, transportation modes are looking to railways as a cheaper, more efficient and environmentally friendly alternative. Because of railway transportation’s immense advantages over road and air transportation, its use is expected to increase two-fold or more over the next 10 years in the US and Canada, and likely all of North America (NA). However, NA railways are still dependent on diesel-electric locomotives, while other countries in Europe and Asia have long ago switched to more efficient electric locomotive technology. Electric locomotives have significant benefits over diesel-electrics, such as increased efficiency and traction, a lower probability of failure, reduced noise and vibrations, potential for brake regeneration, and an overall reduced carbon footprint. Despite these advantages, electric locomotives can cost significantly more than diesel-electrics and require expensive infrastructure, such as catenary lines and electric substations. In 2008, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency implemented new regulations on diesel-electric locomotives to reduce emission toxins such as particulate matter and NOX. These new regulations create immense health benefits, but come at a cost to railway organizations for more stringent manufacturing and remanufacturing requirements. This paper explored the potential costs associated with electrifying the railway network in NA rather than focusing on improving diesel-electrics. A Monte Carlo Simulation was conducted to compare these costs with converting current railway lines to catenary, or partial catenary with on-board storage systems. Factors such as research costs, noise reduction benefits, health benefits, fuel usage, and productivity were taken into consideration to determine the most suitable alternative for the future of NA’s railway organizations, environment, and society. Results suggest that implementing ultracapacitor or battery hybrid locomotive technology would create significant positive net present worth between 2012 and 2040, estimated at $411 Billion for passenger rail and $15.7 Trillion for freight rail, due mainly to less overhead catenary infrastructure and energy costs required, while still gaining the social benefits of reduced noise and improved health. They would also be the quickest electrification technology options to implement in terms of manageable construction and business disruption logistics, which were not considered in this analysis and should be research if and when business case development occurs in pursuit of electrifying railways. Moreover, over 80% of this significant NPW would accrue to railway organizations, suggesting that business case development and investment planning should proceed post haste to electrify, and to phase out diesel electric locomotives at the end of their economic life.Regardless of which route is taken, electrification would have immense benefits to both railway organizations and society. Increased productivity, reduced energy requirements, decreased noise and improved health would all significantly contribute to cost savings and an improved quality of life for residents of North America. As such, there appears to be a strong business case for research into development of hybrid electric locomotives that can operate on- and off-grid.
  Authors: Lovegrove, Gordon Richard; Morrison, Ellen S
  Authors: Lovegrove, Gordon Richard; Morrison, Ellen S
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1262
• Quick Estimation Method for Greenhouse Gas Emissions at Intersections
  Abstract: The traffic operational performance of an intersection is typically based on a capacity analysis of the peak hour for a typical weekday. Analysis methods (i.e. Highway Capacity Manual) have been developed to prepare estimates of vehicle delay, fuel use, and air pollution for an intersection based on this peak hour data. However, when it comes to conducting a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimate, peak hour data are rarely sufficient, since planners and policy makers are typically concerned with a longer time period.A quick estimation method is presented for determining GHG emissions at the intersection of two-lane roadways with all-way stop and roundabout control. This method was developed using the SimTraffic traffic simulation software. Using multivariate regression, equations for daily GHG emissions for each intersection control type were developed based on the following variables:• Intersection total daily traffic volume• Percentage of volume on the major street during the peak hour• Directional percentage during the peak hour• Percentage of turning traffic on the major and minor streets during the peak hourEquations developed from the simulation models were tested in a case study. Simulation models were developed using the counted volumes to calculate daily GHG emissions. The calculated emissions were compared to the regression equation values.Future work is planned to expand this methodology to include two-way stop and signal control. The default SimTraffic fuel use settings could be updated to provide better estimates of fuel use – and GHG emissions – based on the more fuel-efficient modern vehicle fleet.
  Authors: Stanek, David; Breiland, Chris
  Authors: Stanek, David; Breiland, Chris
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1428
• Study of Effect on GHG Emissions by Addition of Transit Mode in Existing Road Network and Optimal Emission Pricing Models for Reducing Carbon Footprint
  Abstract: Scientists and policymakers intend worldwide emissions reduction of up to 80 percent of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the next four decades to stabilize atmospheric concentrations (1). Henceforth, an immediate response from the transportation sector, one of the largest producers of GHGs (up to 30 percent in the U.S.), is critical for GHGs reduction. Possible long-term solutions towards cutting back on emissions from transportation are increasing supply-of/demand-for more energy efficient/fuel efficient vehicles and to substantially improve the transit system (high-speed rail, passenger rail, metro), to reduce reliance on private vehicles and air travel for short trips. However, the markets are still struggling to produce supply-of/demand-for energy efficient vehicles and public debate on potential ridership of high speed rail is ongoing in the U.S. Another feasible strategy that can prove to be effective is emission pricing . Recent advancement in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) offers a technical solution to implement emission pricing effectively in a reasonable period of time. Further, this strategy can foster demand for efficient vehicles and high transit ridership while reducing GHGs emission and generating revenue. As state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) struggle to find more options to reduce GHGs emission, emission pricing offers a solution. To consider emission pricing as an alternative, planners and policymakers will need tools to understand the implications on private vehicle users and the environment. Therefore, in this study, we propose models for understanding the reduction of GHGs emission and shifts of private vehicle trips to transit by implementing ITS based optimal emission pricing to reduce GHGs emission by a certain percentage in a composite transportation network (transit and highway network). The bi-level models presented in this study take into account the planner’s policy decision and the road user’s response to such policies in a simple and methodologically robust framework. The complex decision of choosing transit over private vehicle and road user behavior in the study has been studied by mode split functions and the classical user equilibrium principle. The performance of proposed models is compared to the base-case (do-nothing); reductions in total GHGs emission by optimal emission pricing shows efficacy of the models. The presented methodology in this paper is generalizable and can be applied to any transportation network. Keywords: greenhouse gases, optimal emission pricing, transit, mode choice, user equilibrium
  Authors: Sharma, Sushant; Mishra, Sabyasachee
  Authors: Sharma, Sushant; Mishra, Sabyasachee
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1579
• Life-Cycle Assessment of Diesel-Electric Hybrid Trucks and Conventional Diesel Trucks for Curbside Deliveries
  Abstract: Purolator is a Canadian courier company that has recently introduced hybrid electric vehicles into their fleets. By using hybrids, Purolator has claimed reductions of 1,900 tonnes of greenhouse gases and 645,000 L of diesel fuel over a distance of 5,200,000 km. This paper investigates these claims by independently estimating the fuel savings and greenhouse gas reductions for Purolator’s trucks over their life cycles. To accomplish this objective, a life cycle assessment was executed using GHGenius, a Government of Canada model, which can be used to conduct well-to-wheel analysis and vehicle life cycle analysis for conventional and hybrid diesel trucks. Overall, it was found that Purolator’s hybrid diesel trucks reduce GHG emissions by 23% and 8% for city and highway driving, respectively. The results confirm that switching to an HEV fleet could reduce CO2 emissions during vehicle operations by 25% as the vehicle manufacturer (Azure Dynamics) has advertised. However, the estimated maximum emission reductions (1,668 tonnes) and fuel savings (609,000 L) over a distance of 5,200,000 km fall short of Purolator’s values (1,900 tonnes, 645,000 L). The emission reductions on a per kilometer basis are relatively insensitive to changes in the vehicles’ service life, the average payload and the extra weight of the hybrid. At present, the life cycle costs of hybrid delivery trucks do not make them financially favorable alternatives to conventional diesel trucks, though their financial competitiveness is sensitive to the vehicle service life, the price of diesel fuel, the assumed discount rate, and the incremental hybrid cost.
  Authors: Bachmann, Chris; Chingcuanco, Franco; MacLean, Heather; Roorda, Matthew J.
  Authors: Bachmann, Chris; Chingcuanco, Franco; MacLean, Heather; Roorda, Matthew J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1374
• Electric Vehicle Charging Station Location Problem: A Parking-Based Assignment Method for Seattle, Washington
  Abstract: Access to electric vehicle (EV) charging stations will impact EV adoption rates, use decisions, electrified mile shares, petroleum demand, and power consumption across times of day. This work uses parking information from over 30,000 personal-trip records in the Puget Sound Regional Council’s 2006 household travel survey to determine public (non-residential) parking locations and durations. Regression equations predict parking demand variables (total vehicle-hours per zone/neighborhood and parked-time per vehicle-trip) as a function of site accessibility, local jobs and population densities, trip attributes, and other variables available in most regions and travel surveys. Several of these variables are key inputs for a mixed integer programming problem, developed here for optimal EV-charging-station location assignments. The algorithm minimizes EV users’ station access costs while penalizing unmet demand. This useful specification was used to determine top locations for installing a constrained number of charging stations across the City of Seattle, showing how charging location schemes’ access costs respond to parking demand and station locations. The models developed here are generalizable to data sets available for most any region, and can be used to make more informed decisions on station locations around the world.
  Authors: Chen, T. Donna; Khan, Mobashwir; Kockelman, Kara
  Authors: Chen, T. Donna; Khan, Mobashwir; Kockelman, Kara
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1254
• Mixture Amount Stated Adaptation Experiment of Activity-Travel Behavior Dynamics in Adaptive Response to Energy Conservation Strategies
  Abstract: People adaptations to increased energy prices in transportation have been studied at length using stated preference, choice and adaptation experiments. To point at an alternative experimental design approach to estimate utility functions under constraints, the principles of mixture-amount experiments are discussed. A context-dependent elaboration of a mixture amount choice experiment is constructed to measure people’s responses to accumulative energy charges under four different contexts. Considering consumer heterogeneity in adaptive response behavior, mixed logit analysis is used for analyzing the extent and nature of adaptation of activity-travel behavior and resources when faced with increasing energy costs. The results indicate that individuals are inclined to compensate for increased expenditures due to energy price increases. Moreover, results show the existence of significant heterogeneity among respondents in terms of their sensitivity to various energy saving choices.
  Authors: Yang, Dujuan; Timmermans, Harry J.P.; Borgers, Aloys
  Authors: Yang, Dujuan; Timmermans, Harry J.P.; Borgers, Aloys
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1486
• Assessing Impact of Bus Technology on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Along a Major Corridor: Comparing Instantaneous Speed Emission Model with Average-Speed Model
  Abstract: Recently, a large number of local transit agencies in North America have been considering new strategies to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse (GHG) emissions. These strategies often include a combination of operational improvements and alternative technologies. This is the case for the Montreal transit system, run by the Société de transport de Montréal (STM), which manages and operates a fleet of 1,696 buses with the majority running on diesel. Our study focused on a busy bus transit corridor. Our objectives include 1) evaluating the impact of alternative bus transit technologies including compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, and diesel-electric hybrid on GHG emissions using a lifecycle analysis (LCA) approach, and 2) comparing the operational emissions of buses running on these different technologies using an instantaneous speed and an average speed emission model. Local geographic and driving conditions along the corridor are incorporated in the estimation of operational emissions. The results indicate that operational emissions make-up the largest portion of lifecycle emissions (more than 80%). The bus technologies are ranked in increasing order of lifecycle GHG emissions generated: 1) hybrid, 2) CNG, 3) biodiesel, and 4) diesel. GHG savings range from 8.4-29.0 kg of CO2-equivalent (12.5-43.3%) for a single bus operating once on a single route during the morning and afternoon peak periods when converting the current diesel technology to one of the alternative fuels tested. When comparing instantaneous and average speed emissions we observe that both methods produce consistent results for diesel emissions. However, the average speed method underestimates biodiesel emissions by 21% and overestimates CNG emissions by 16%.
  Authors: Chan, Sabrina; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando; Alam, Ahsan; Hatzopoulou, Marianne
  Authors: Chan, Sabrina; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando; Alam, Ahsan; Hatzopoulou, Marianne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1390
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Current and Near-Term Bus Technologies in London
  Abstract: The UK has committed to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 levels as well as stringent EURO emissions level standards for its vehicles. In order to meet local air quality and exhaust emissions standards, Transport for London (TfL) is considering the adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) buses, hybrid-diesel buses, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), and selective catalytic reduction (SCR). While these technologies improve air quality, they also have a climate impact. We assess the climate costs of these alternative bus technologies in London – one of the world’s largest urban bus networks – relative to the existing diesel stock. We develop a detailed stochastic London bus emissions model based on bus route data and velocity-dependent emissions factors. Four alternative technology scenarios based upon hybrid buses, CNG buses, EGR, and SCR are defined. Changes in GHG emissions due to the alternative technology scenarios are modeled. Life-cycle CO2-equivalent emissions of the fuel and vehicle pathways are determined, including fuel production, methane pipeline leakage, and hybrid battery production embedded carbon. Our results demonstrate that the fleet-wide adoption of SCR and EGR after treatment would result in a slight increase in GHG emissions relative to the baseline (+0.5% and +3% CO2-equivalent impact per year, respectively), while the adoption of CNG buses results in significantly greater lifecycle GHG emissions (+44% CO¬2-equivalent impact per year). The implementation of hybrid buses is the only option which would reduce GHG emissions with a 14% reduction per year in CO2-equivalent emissions.
  Authors: Chong, Uven; Boies, Adam; Barrett, Steven
  Authors: Chong, Uven; Boies, Adam; Barrett, Steven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2031
• Presentation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Information for Smartphone Applications
  Abstract: This paper examines methods of communicating and presenting information to individuals about transport and travel related carbon emissions for online journey planners and smartphone applications. Numerous on-line carbon calculators provide users with information about the carbon emissions that result from the selection of one mode of transport over another. As users may not be familiar with the magnitude of such emissions, many of these calculators employ techniques designed to help the user better understand their emissions and provide some context. This study examines four different methods of communicating and contextualising trip related carbon emissions based upon methods already in used by a variety of carbon calculators. These methods included a simple numerical representation of emissions in the form of kilograms of CO2 produced, a “lightbulb” method used to contextualize the emissions, a weekly carbon budget, and a graphical “traffic light system”. Results indicate that while that there is a strong correlation between understanding of methods and likelihood of altering mode choice. Significant preferences exist for each of the methods, and age and gender appear to be indicators of personal preference.
  Authors: Brazil, William; Caulfield, Brian; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine
  Authors: Brazil, William; Caulfield, Brian; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2030
• Public Transportation and Land Use Multiplier: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential and Associated Costs in Los Angeles, California, Metropolitan Region
  Abstract: Transit in high density urban regions can help reduce the vehicle miles traveled by residents and visitors. Less private vehicle dependency and use reduces greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. Planners and politicians can benefit significantly from improved information about transit’s effects on land use and vehicle use. There are a number of techniques to estimate the influence that transit has on non-transit travel patterns in a given region. One method involves using the American Public Transportation Association’s (APTA) approach to calculating land use multipliers. The APTA methodology can also be used to measure the GHG, VMT, and fuel use impacts of potential mode shift, congestion relief, and land use changes associated with transit service. Additionally, the APTA methodology can be used with the Department of Transportation’s National Transit Database (NTD) to develop quick and cost-effective estimates of transit leverage for all transit agencies listed in the NTD. This advancement can be used by policy decision makers to estimate fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions reductions achievable through changes in transit supply policies. The paper will compare land use multipliers in different cities in the Los Angeles Southern California metropolitan region. The comparison will examine the influence of population, density, job clusters, and other factors on regional land use multipliers. This paper will discuss the scenarios, the analysis methodology used, and the ways in which these results differ from other recent literature on the topic.
  Authors: Lem, Lewison Lee; Moylan, Emily Kate McNeil; Chami, Rami Barakat
  Authors: Lem, Lewison Lee; Moylan, Emily Kate McNeil; Chami, Rami Barakat
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2088
• Cost-Effectiveness of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Capacity and Charging Infrastructure Investment for Reducing U.S. Gasoline Consumption
  Abstract: Federal electric vehicle (EV) policies in the United States currently include vehicle purchase subsidies linked to EV battery capacity and subsidies for installing charging stations. We compare the cost-effectiveness of increased battery capacity vs. charging infrastructure installation as alternate methods to reduce gasoline consumption for cars, trucks, and SUVs in the U.S. We find across a wide range of scenarios that the least-cost solution is for more drivers to switch to low-capacity plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (short electric range with gasoline backup for long trips) or gasoline-powered hybrid electric vehicles. If more gasoline savings are needed per vehicle, charging infrastructure installation is substantially more expensive than increased battery capacity per gallon saved, and both approaches have higher costs than U.S. oil premium estimates. Comparison of results to the structure of current federal subsidies shows that policy is not aligned with fuel savings potential, and we discuss issues and alternatives.
  Authors: Peterson, Scott B.; Michalek, Jeremy J.
  Authors: Peterson, Scott B.; Michalek, Jeremy J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2120
• Effects of Temperature and Thermal Management on Battery Life in Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  Abstract: We develop a simulation model that aims to evaluate the effect of thermal management on battery life. The model consists of two sub-models: a thermal model and a battery degradation model. The temperature rise in the battery is calculated using the thermal model, and a temperature profile is obtained under pre-defined driving, charging and stand-by scenarios. The temperature profile and the energy requirement required to achieve a driving profile act as inputs to the degradation sub-model, which is used to predict the battery life. The degradation model is derived from models and test data available in literature, and the model is constructed for air-cooled cylindrical LiFePO4 cells based on the Hymotion Prius-conversion configuration. Preliminary results suggest that peak temperatures have the greatest impact on degradation: Thermal management increases life substantially in climates with high peak temperatures (Pheonix) and for more aggressive driving cycles (US06), while thermal management has less influence in climates with lower peak temperatures (Miami) and with gentle driving cycles (UDDS). Use of cabin air vs. outside air for thermal management has minor impact on battery life for the control strategy used, but thermostat control settings are important for lowering peak temperatures and extending battery life.
  Authors: Yuksel, Tugce; Michalek, Jeremy J.
  Authors: Yuksel, Tugce; Michalek, Jeremy J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2220
• Investigating Neighborhood Effect on Hybrid Vehicle Adoption
  Abstract: Transportation contributes a large percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reduce petroleum consumption, vehicle air pollution, and noise emissions, hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), offers the new efficiency-improving technologies and has been introduced into the US market since 1999. However, the current market share and hybrid adoption rate is still low by observing 0.1 percent of registered HEVs in the United States in 2010 (BTS, 2011). The sales of HEV are not uniform across space and over time. Here we investigate the spatial diffusion process of the HEVs and analyze how the related factors (including socio-demographic attributes and spatial factors) influence the HEV adoption. Utilizing the 2009 Florida NHTS add-on data, we conducted a cluster analysis to display the spatial clusters of the households who purchased the HEVs during the period of 2005-2008. We found that more clusters of HEVs emerged overtime. Geographic patterns also demonstrated the increasing number of clusters featured by households with hybrid vehicles and the surrounding hybrid vehicle adopters. Further, the relationship between the hybrid vehicle adoption and neighborhood effects (NE) and social-demographic factors are analyzed using Binary Logit models with and without weight. Neighborhood effects are confirmed to be significant in both urban and rural models, especially the factors of 1-mile and 5-mile neighborhood coverage. This indicates that potential buyers are more likely to purchase the HEVs when there are more HEVs exposures surrounding, and this measurement of exposure is proved to be reasonable for neighborhood effect. Among the social and demographic attributes, household income is the most significant variable and plays a dominant role in affecting the propensity to buy hybrid vehicles. Other factors, such as vehicle ownership, household structure and education attainment level also significantly affect households’ choice of hybrid cars. Vehicle usage is a controversial factor in this study because of the interactive correlation between the type of vehicle owned and corresponding usage.
  Authors: Zhu, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chao
  Authors: Zhu, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2017
• Travel Behavior and E-mobility in Germany: Is the Problem the Driving Range or Costs or Both?
  Abstract: A reluctance towards switching to electric cars can be observed in various countries despite the efforts of national programs to promote electric vehicles. This paper investigates, if electric cars are capable of meeting the requirements of daily mobility in Germany. The analysis is based on data from the Mobility Panel Survey Germany from 1995 to 2010 and the travel survey of the Stuttgart area from 2009/10, combining a long-term travel behavior analysis with a regional specific verification. The focus is on individuals, who exclusively drive a car and walk during a day, relying on the car as a primary means of transport. For this group the determinants of the decision using an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) versus a battery electric car (BEV) are analyzed focusing on driving range and energy costs. The analysis suggests that around 80% of all daily travel by car drivers could be done with currently available models of electric cars where only charging during the night would be sufficient in the majority of cases. This suggests that the driving range of BEVs cannot actually be the restricting factor. On the other hand, the current cost structure of BEVs with high costs of investment and low costs of energy is not favorable for a large share of drivers, since their low annual mileage does not compensate the high investment costs through low operation costs. In the Stuttgart region, drivers from the suburbs would benefit most from such savings due to lower energy costs while those living in the city would need other cost structures or incentives for switching to BEVs.
  Authors: Koelbl, Robert; Bauer, Dietmar; Rudloff, Christian
  Authors: Koelbl, Robert; Bauer, Dietmar; Rudloff, Christian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2114
• Analysis of Household Vehicle Usage and Ownership Under Different Taxation Policies
  Abstract: The objectives of this study are twofold: 1) to develop an integrated approach analyzing the vehicle type choice, annual travelling distance, and holding duration by simultaneously consider the correlations between the three behaviors, and 2) to demonstrate the changes in CO2 emissions under different taxation policies. In order to develop the integrated approach, focusing on stages of vehicle usage and vehicle ownership, this study proposes a Copula-based Multivariate Survival (CMS) model of holding duration and annual travelling distance. A Paired Combination Logit (PCL) is applied in order to model the vehicle type choice, and then the estimated PCL model is further incorporated into the CMS model. An empirical analysis was carried out by using a data set collected in the Chugoku region of Japan, 2006. Model estimation results empirically confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested approach. The estimation results also showed that the vehicle holding duration has the negative correlations with expected utilities of vehicle type choice and with vehicle usage. Through the simulation analysis about vehicle-related taxes, it was clarified that to increase fuel tax is the most effective in to reducing the CO2 emissions, followed by auto tax and weight tax at the vehicle inspection. Moreover, it was observed that the increases in acquisition tax contribute to increase CO2 emissions.
  Authors: Kuwano, Masashi; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Zhang, Junyi; Tsukai, Makoto
  Authors: Kuwano, Masashi; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Zhang, Junyi; Tsukai, Makoto
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2478
• Development and Evaluation of Intelligent Energy Management Strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
  Abstract: In this study, we propose an intelligent energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). At the trip level, the strategy takes into account a priori knowledge of vehicle location, roadway characteristics, and real-time traffic information on the travel route from intelligent transportation system technologies in generating a synthesized velocity trajectory for the trip. The synthesized velocity trajectory is then used to determine charge-depleting control that is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem to minimize the total trip fuel consumption. The strategy can be extended to optimize fuel consumption at the tour level if a pre-planned travel itinerary for the tour and the information about available battery recharging opportunities at intermediate stops in the tour are available. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy, both for the trip-based and tour-based controls, was evaluated against the existing binary mode energy management strategy using a real-world example trip/tour in Southern California. The evaluation results show that the fuel savings of the proposed strategy over the binary mode strategy are around 10-15%.
  Authors: Wu, Guoyuan; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Barth, Matthew J.
  Authors: Wu, Guoyuan; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Barth, Matthew J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2457
• Systems Approach to Innovation Success: Steps in Adopting E-vehicles in City Logistics
  Abstract: The adoption of innovation has frequently been described as path-dependent, highlighting the randomness in overcoming barriers. Addressing these issues within a System provides an improved understanding of the forces at work and allows for the planning and implementation of policy interventions in favor of innovation uptake especially when the objective is welfare.Extending the Systems’ Innovation approach, a Systems’ Innovation framework for policy support is produced to assist in indicating when and how to intervene in the adoption/ technology transfer process. The proposed framework is applied to the introduction of e-vehicles in city logistics. Findings indicate the dependence of the innovation uptake on the innovation leader/champion and that need to transfer leadership from central authorities to municipal authorities in order to move from the initiation stage to the implementation stage. The importance of strong networks between innovation actors and respective building of capabilities, which may also work in favor of other competitive innovations, is also derived from the analysis.
  Authors: Roumboutsos, Athena; Vanelslander, Thierry; Kapros, Seraphim
  Authors: Roumboutsos, Athena; Vanelslander, Thierry; Kapros, Seraphim
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2773
• Do You Mind If I Plug in My Car? How Etiquette Shapes Plug-in Vehicle Drivers' Vehicle Charging Behavior
  Abstract: PEVs engage drivers in an essential new behavior—plugging the car into theelectrical grid to charge the vehicles’ batteries. Broadly, it has beenassumed that if away-from-home charging infrastructure is in place and PEVdrivers know of it, they will perceive an opportunity to charge. Theexperiences of early PEV drivers cause us to rethink this assumption.Drivers report a lack of etiquette, i.e., rules to guide their behaviorand their expectations of how other PEV drivers ought to behave in the newsocial interactions. PEV drivers want widely shared, understood, andpracticed charging guidelines in order to feel comfortable and confidentin charging away-from-home. This study uses thematic analysis oftranscripts, amended by field notes, of interviews of 28 PEV drivinghouseholds in San Diego County, California. Themes emerged within twotypes of away from home charging. First, public chargers available to anyPEV driver were the sites of multiple situations in which drivers’perceived a lack of rules or perceived conflicts between different systemsof rules; both inhibited charger use. Second, workplace charging adds anadditional layer of rules and possibly resources that may either inhibitor encourage PEV charging. If PEV markets and charger networks continue togrow, charging will be shaped by more systems of rules and regulations,e.g., those governing financial transactions. Our results suggests thatnew rules may create as much uncertainty as guidance.
  Authors: Caperello, Nicolette; Kurani, Kenneth S.; TyreeHageman, Jennifer L.
  Authors: Caperello, Nicolette; Kurani, Kenneth S.; TyreeHageman, Jennifer L.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2816
• Commercial Building Trigeneration Systems for Refueling Hydrogen Vehicles, Providing Local Grid Support, and Enhancing Sustainability
  Abstract: Emerging technologies such as fuel cell tri-generation have the potential to simultaneously provide hydrogen fuel and local grid support in an economical way by co-producing valuable products: hydrogen, electricity, and heat. A typical tri-generation system produces electricity and heat for buildings as well as hydrogen fuel for vehicles by converting a hydrocarbon such as natural gas (NG) or bio-methane. Low utilization that is normally associated with early hydrogen refueling stations would no longer be a problem, since a tri-generation system can always produce electricity and heat regardless of the size of the H2 demand. Due to its high efficiency and combined heat and power (CHP) nature, a tri-generation system generates less criteria and CO2 emissions compared with many other ways of electricity generation, and thus enhances the sustainability of our energy system. When using renewable feedstock such as bio-methane, a tri-generation system generates near zero CO2 emissions.This study models the operation of commercial building tri-generation systems for “Big box” stores such as Safeway and Costco, which are a combination of grocery and retail business, and sometimes gasoline retail. This type of business is considered because people shop there regularly and sometimes combine their shopping trips with refueling. In addition, these business have already invested and have experience in transportation fuel (mostly gasoline) retail. This study is part of our ongoing research efforts to identify viable, novel, and low risk strategies to provide hydrogen refueling to support fuel cell vehicle (FCV) rollout. This study will also explore how the distributed generation nature of this application may benefit public utilities for local electricity grid support. This is important in the case of geographically concentrated BEV deployments, where BEVs are adding peak load locally. This study has the potential to contribute to a scenario where the transition to hydrogen for transportation would not require subsidy, which is different from many previous scenarios analyzed by DOE.
  Authors: Li, Xuping; Ogden, Joan M.; Yang, Christopher
  Authors: Li, Xuping; Ogden, Joan M.; Yang, Christopher
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3134
• Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainability in the Transportation Sector
  Abstract: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a program under the Kyoto Protocol designed to help developing countries reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The program was originally adopted to reduce the cost of compliance for Annex I countries and, as a result, has failed to foster renewable, transportation-related, or small projects. The fundamental question is whether or not the CDM can incentivize sustainable development, especially in terms of GHG reductions, in the ever-growing transportation sector of the developing world. Among the various transportation projects, fuel switch and mode switch projects are the most common options in the CDM, mainly because travel activity, vehicle efficiency and occupancy, and infrastructure investments are too broad for a project-based approach. A sectoral approach or Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) could provide a better fit for transportation policies; however, probably due to its more complex structure, no sectoral transportation option has been approved in the CDM. This paper reviews and critiques the CDM, and considers modifications to improve the program in these contexts.Keywords: The Clean Development Mechanism, Sustainability, Developing countries, Greenhouse gases.
  Authors: Rouhani, Omid M.
  Authors: Rouhani, Omid M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3195
• Emission Saving Potential of Accelerated Vehicle Retirement Programs: Case Study of California Heavy-Duty Trucking
  Abstract: California is the largest consumer of transportation fuels in the United States. An increasing fraction of these fuels (25-29%) is dedicated to powering heavy-duty trucks, which has significant effects on both local air quality and greenhouse gases (GHG). Following the passage of the Global Warming Solutions Act (2006), the California Air Resources Board (ARB) has commenced many heavy-duty trucking initiatives to assist in meeting the goal of obtaining an 80% GHG reduction from 1990 levels by 2050. Along with these initiatives, which include fuel reformulation and programs to promote mode switch, the ARB has instituted an accelerated vehicle retirement program (AVRP) (referred to as ”Cash for Clunkers”) to subsidize the removal of older, more polluting heavy-duty trucks from California’s fleet. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for and report on the emissions savings potentials of truck-specific AVRPs considering the emissions generated through vehicle manufacturing, operation, maintenance, and disposal life-cycle phases. Our results indicate that the distribution of lifetime vehicle miles traveled (VMT), useful years of replacement, and fuel economy are key parameters that influence AVRP emission assessments. Accelerated vehicle retirement programs in California can generate enough emissions savings to effectively offset the lifetime GHG footprint of a portion (1-4%) of the participating heavy-duty trucks (Class 8), a GHG saving potential of upwards of 200,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per 1,000 vehicles replaced.
  Authors: Taptich, Michael; Chester, Mikhail; Horvath, Arpad
  Authors: Taptich, Michael; Chester, Mikhail; Horvath, Arpad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2981
• Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Hybrid Bus Deployment on Transit Lines
  Abstract: The potential benefits and the prohibitive costs of hybrid buses warrant the following question: "Is it economically viable to use hybrid buses in transit routes?" To that end, the primary objective of this study is to conduct an extensive life cycle cost analysis of a hypothetical purchase scenario of a new bus fleet for New Jersey transit routes with three different purchase options: 1) Conventional Diesel 2) Compressed Natural Gas and 3) Hybrid-electric. Life cycle cost analysis includes not only capital and operating costs, but also air pollution costs. The novelty of this current study is the use of detailed data from an actual transit planning network that includes individual link speeds and the frequency and trip length of bus trips for each transit line. This approach allows us to quantify the work-wide impacts of various bus purchase scenarios. Life cycle cost analysis was used to compare different bus purchase scenarios, estimate the impact of operation speed on life cycle costs and calculate the impact of government subsidies for initial bus purchase costs. This study concludes that, given the unit maintenance and operation costs values reported in the literature and significantly higher capital costs, hybrid electric buses are still not an economically viable solution for NJ Transit as compared to CNG and conventional diesel buses.
  Authors: Bartin, Bekir
  Authors: Bartin, Bekir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4071
• Comparison Between Long-Term Effects of Road Development and Railway Development for Low-Carbon Urban Transport System in Bangkok, Thailand
  Abstract: Development of low-carbon transport systems in Asian developing cities could significantly contribute to CO2 mitigation by calming motorization accelerated by rapid economic growth. However, many of them have prioritized road development over railway development to reduce serious traffic congestion. In a long term, this could induce more traffic and, consequently, worsen congestion problems. On the other hand, to achieve the challenging level of CO2 mitigation, extensive railway development may be required for megacities. As CO2 mitigation is unlikely to be priority for them, their low-carbon transport systems should secure accessibility improvement at least with reasonable cost as well as mitigating CO2 emissions.This study examines whether railway development would be more effective in a long term than road development in Bangkok by saving more CO2 emissions and travel time in the budget of development cost. Future scenarios in 2050 are set to represent road-oriented development and railway-oriented development, taking account of long-term changes in socio-economic characteristics and motorization level. While road-oriented development is expected to improve traffic efficiency, railway-oriented development can contribute to reducing traffic congestion by shifting car users to railway users. The effects of these long-term development scenarios are assessed with an urban transport model by estimating their impacts on CO2 emissions and travel time in the constraint of development cost, compared to the current levels. The results also provide costs of CO2 mitigation in each scenario to identify the effectiveness of a low-carbon transport system.
  Authors: Nakamura, Kazuki; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Kato, Hirokazu
  Authors: Nakamura, Kazuki; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Kato, Hirokazu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4101
• Framework to Evaluate Policy for Promotion of Electric Vehicles
  Abstract: The transport sector from conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas and carbon emissions. Due to growing environmental concerns, there is an increasing governmental interest in evaluating policies that can increase the uptake of Electric Vehicles (EV). This study develops a framework to evaluate the impact of policies for EV uptake. Using the city of Sydney, Australia, as a case, the framework utilizes a system dynamic model that explicitly incorporates the life cycle of vehicles, consumer preferences, impact of infrastructure on choice, positive cascading effect on choice due to increased penetration of EVs as well as feedback effects of advertising. It was found that the EV uptake predicted by the model was the most sensitive to the capital and operational cost of the vehicle, based on which five policies were identified that would affect these variables. Finally, a cost benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the policies. It was found that the government subsidy of 70% on electricity rates for charging electric vehicles was the most cost effective. Though this framework was used in Sydney, this methodology provides planners a tool through which they can evaluate policies related to uptake of new vehicle technologies
  Authors: Edwards, Lara; Kemp, Jonnathan; Ly, Nuwyy; Maria, Tran; Dixit, Vinayak V.
  Authors: Edwards, Lara; Kemp, Jonnathan; Ly, Nuwyy; Maria, Tran; Dixit, Vinayak V.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4139
• Accommodating Electric Vehicle Charging in California's Power Sector: Regional Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
  Abstract: This paper explores the implications of the increased adoption of plug-in electric vehicles in California due to the state’s greenhouse gas and energy policies. The well-to-wheels emissions associated with driving an electric vehicle depend on the resource mix of the electricity grid used to charge the battery. We establish a systems approach that can be used to evaluate the impact of growing electric vehicle demand on existing power grid infrastructure system and energy resources. We present a new least-cost dispatch model for the California electricity grid consisting of interconnected sub-regions that represent the five largest state utilities. This model considers spatiality and temporal dynamics of energy demand and supply when determining the regional impacts of additional charging profiles on the current electricity network. Model simulation runs for one year were benchmarked against historical data and found to match actual generation within 5%. Sensitivity analyses show seasonal variation in response to uncertainty of demand, a result that has implications for future electric vehicle charging strategies. In minimizing total system cost, the model will choose to dispatch the lowest-cost resource to meet additional vehicle demand, regardless of location, as long as transmission capacity constraints are met. PEV charging location has an effect on the utility region from which additional generation originates. However, scenario testing confirms that location of additional PEVs does not have an effect of overall emissions and cost impacts to the grid, provided there is available transmission capacity for the lowest-cost resource to be utilized.
  Authors: Sohnen, Julia M; Fan, Yueyue; Ogden, Joan M.; Yang, Christopher
  Authors: Sohnen, Julia M; Fan, Yueyue; Ogden, Joan M.; Yang, Christopher
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4120
• Annual Transportation Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Individuals in Finland as a Function of Lifestyle
  Abstract: When comparing the energy efficiency of transport modes the different spatial contexts and the resulting trip characteristics must be taken into account in order to bring about realistic and fair results. The objective of this paper is find out the actual amounts of energy consumed and emissions generated per passenger on an annual basis using realistic load factors and mode choice scenarios in these different contexts.. The results show that especially with modern private vehicles the energy efficiency and fuel consumption for autos is competitive with buses in rural areas where buses carry far less people on board than in urban environment. If, however, the amount of private vehicle driving should increase radically, in dense urban areas, due to shifting to the more fuel efficient vehicles, the advantages of the reduction of emissions and fuel consumption on a per vehicle basis will be offset quickly. Furthermore, criticism of people as environmentally irresponsible citizens simply because they drive their automobile or other private vehicle is unwarranted. In rural areas, the bus exists not because it is better environmentally but because it fulfills a social need for mobility for those without autos. People who never drive in their home city may actually have the largest carbon footprint of anyone in their neighborhood if they do a large amount of long distance travel. The findings from this study argue for a more holistic and realistic approach to evaluating energy efficiency of particular lifestyles and for designing policy responses.
  Authors: Möttönen, Reko; Bruun, Eric Christian
  Authors: Möttönen, Reko; Bruun, Eric Christian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3594
• Impacts of Energy Developments on Highway Systems
  Abstract: In recent years, the United States has experienced a boom in energy-related activities, particularly in oil and natural gas. While energy developments contribute to enhance the country’s ability to produce energy reliably, many short-term and long-term impacts on the transportation infrastructure are not properly documented. This paper describes impacts of increased level of energy-related activities on transportation infrastructure in Texas, including pavement impacts, roadside impacts, operational and safety impacts, and economic impacts.
  Authors: Quiroga, Cesar; Fernando, Emmanuel G.; Oh, Jeong Ho
  Authors: Quiroga, Cesar; Fernando, Emmanuel G.; Oh, Jeong Ho
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3650
• U.S. Freight Emissions Segmented by BCO Industry
  Abstract: This paper estimates GHG emissions from freight transport consumed by U.S. industries. GHG emissions are allocated to detailed industry sectors. The methodology described here uses ton-mile estimates by mode and commodity, allocates these ton-mile flows to producing industries in the U.S. Input-Output Tables and estimates the consuming industries based on the relationships in the I-O table. GHG emissions are estimated using ton-mile emission factors. The results provide detailed data on the consumption of freight services and the energy intensity of these services. The GHG emissions estimates include data on the GHG emissions associated with freight transport in international supply chains of U.S. companies. These results can be used to benchmark the environmental footprint of U.S. industries and provide insight into where the greatest opportunities for GHG emissions reductions exist.
  Authors: O'Rourke, Larry; Read, Kelsey Wilson; Johnston, Eliza
  Authors: O'Rourke, Larry; Read, Kelsey Wilson; Johnston, Eliza
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4191
• Road Transport Fuel Consumption Trends in the United Kingdom: Empirical Analysis of Diesel Demand
  Abstract: Recent policy measures imposed on the UK road transport sector has resulted in a shift towards diesel fuel consumption. While there are studies focusing on elasticities in the road transport sector, most have either looked at petrol fuel demand or have used total road transport fuel demand. Looking at the consumption pattern, we hypothesized that diesel demand may have different responsiveness with respect to changes in price and income. This paper contributes by estimating the diesel demand elasticities for the UK using the time series cointegration and error correction model. Our findings indicate that the income elasticities both in the short run and the long run are significantly higher as compared to those reported in previous studies. This will have significant implication to policy makers in terms of planning for future energy consumption and limiting CO2 emissions from the road transport sector.
  Authors: Ramli, Ahmad Razi; Graham, Daniel
  Authors: Ramli, Ahmad Razi; Graham, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4313
• Creating Per Capita Transportation CO2 Indicator for European Cities Through Geographic Information System
  Abstract: The transportation sector represents roughly 20% of the CO2 emissions in the EU and is the only sector that has continued to increase emissions. As most people live and work in cities in the EU, it is important to identify the leaders and laggards with regard to efforts to decrease CO2 emissions from transportation. Without an indicator of a city’s transportation CO2 emissions performance, it is not possible to evaluate the current status, assess progress, or make comparisons. Cities make important decisions affecting transportation for the majority of citizens and thus influence transportation CO2 emissions. Yet, until recently, figures for city-level emissions across the EU were not available. Now, the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) inventory of diffuse sources allows for analysis of a range of atmospheric emissions at a 5 km resolution. One problem relates to what are the relevant boundaries of a city: administrative boundaries or functional urban area boundaries? However, the data must first be validated before being applied. The UK government maintains a higher (1 km) resolution emissions inventory based on a ‘bottom-up’ methodology. The UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) has been used to assess the reliability of the new E-PRTR data. This paper describes how an estimate of city-level transportation CO2 emissions can be developed through available GIS data and at what geographic level it can currently be applied. An argument is made that a functional urban area boundary is more appropriate than traditional administrative boundaries for such indicators.
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen D.; Chatterton, Tim; Avineri, Erel
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen D.; Chatterton, Tim; Avineri, Erel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3906
• Deep Cuts in Emissions and Petroleum Use in the Transportation Sector: Scenarios, Barriers, and Enablers
  Abstract: Advanced systems and technologies could transform the United States’ transportation system, yielding energy security benefits and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Efficiency and renewables in transportation can reduce oil use and emissions, but face challenges in consumer adoption, infrastructure requirements, and resource constraints. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project reviewed pathways to significant reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating TEF results, diverse strategies are explored: stabilization of transportation energy use, use of electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy, and use of biofuels. Energy efficiency improvements and demand-side approaches could stop the growth in total transportation energy. Energy efficiency technologies could compensate for growing non-light-duty-vehicle demand; light-duty vehicle energy use is already projected to stabilize due to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Travel reduction and built environment changes could moderate personal transportation demand. Freight mass reductions and mode switching could slow or stabilize freight demand. Vehicles using electricity or hydrogen would be necessary to access renewable energy resources other than biomass. Fueling infrastructure changes are estimated and challenges in market uptake of advanced vehicles needed for these pathways are explored. Biomass is the renewable resource most readily suited to liquid fueling of the transportation sector; competition for biomass across five markets: electricity, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel, is also explored. Based on the TEF analysis, the technical (not market) potential reduction from full implementation of these strategies could displace all petroleum use in the sector in the long term.
  Authors: Vimmerstedt, Laura; Brown, Austin; Heath, Garvin; Mai, Trieu; Melaina, Marc; Ruth, Mark; Simpkins, Travis; Warner, Ethan; Bertram, Kenneth M.; Plotkin, Steven Edward
  Authors: Vimmerstedt, Laura; Brown, Austin; Heath, Garvin; Mai, Trieu; Melaina, Marc; Ruth, Mark; Simpkins, Travis; Warner, Ethan; Bertram, Kenneth M.; Plotkin, Steven Edward
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4427
• Life-cycle Evaluation of Urban Commercial Electric Vehicles and Their Potential Emission Reduction Impacts
  Abstract: This research quantifies the environmental costs associated with the replacement of diesel trucks with electric vehicles. Lifecycle environmental benefits are quantified both in terms of vehicle manufacturing/salvage and operational emissions reductions using “wells-to-wheels” methodology. The emissions estimation of the two types of vehicles includes CO2, NOx, SO2, PM, CO, and VOCs. Emissions cost breakeven points are identified at which the cost of operating a conventional fleet and electrical fleet are identical. Although there is a wide range of emissions externality costs per ton, the results show that the emissions differences from replacing a conventional delivery truck with an electric truck can be substantial. The effects of electrification of a certain portion of suitable trucks are quantified for the Oregon statewide fleet and the US nationwide fleet.
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Figliozzi, Miguel
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Figliozzi, Miguel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4482
• Close Look at Hybrid Vehicle Loyalty and Ownership
  Abstract: In a news release dated April 9, 2012, Polk stated that only 35% of hybrid owners bought a hybrid again when they returned to market in 2011. These findings were based on an internal study conducted by Polk. The study also indicated that if repurchase behavior among the high volume audience of Toyota Prius owners wasn’t factored in; hybrid loyalty would drop to under 25%. This news release has generated a lot of interest and concern by the automobile industry and consumers, since it was published. Most reactions to the 35% hybrid loyalty dealt with concerns of the viability of hybrid technology as part of the solution to address transportation energy challenges.This paper attempts to shed more light on Polk’s hybrid loyalty study as well as explore several information sources concerning hybrid loyalty status. Specifically, major factors that might impact the selection and acquisition of hybrid vehicles are addressed. This includes investigating the associations between hybrid market shares and influencing factors like fuel price and hybrid incentives, as well as the availability of hybrid models and other highly fuel efficient vehicle options. Other emerging technologies that aim at reducing fossil fuel consumption and cleaner alternative fuels, and greenhouse gases emission were also examined.
  Authors: Hwang, Ho-Ling; Chin, Shih-Miao; Wilson, Daniel W.; Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Taylor, Robert
  Authors: Hwang, Ho-Ling; Chin, Shih-Miao; Wilson, Daniel W.; Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Taylor, Robert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4667
• U.S. Residential Charging Potential for Plug-In Vehicles
  Abstract: Availability of charging infrastructure could be a limiting factor for fleet penetration of plug-in vehicles. We assess existing and potential charging infrastructure for electric vehicles in U.S. households using data from the American Housing Survey (AHS) and a survey from the literature. We estimate that about 48% of U.S. households and 28% of vehicles have access to a dedicated parking spot at home within reach of a Level 1 (standard 120V) outlet sufficient to recharge a small plug-in vehicle battery pack overnight. Access to faster (Level 2, 240V) charging required for vehicles with longer electric range requires infrastructure investment (costing from several hundred dollars up to $10,000 depending on electrical panel and construction requirements). We estimate that 92% of households and 60% of vehicles have access to a dedicated parking spot at home where Level 1 or 2 charging infrastructure could be installed. The percentage of vehicles with access is lower than for households due to multi-vehicle households and limited garage/driveway space. Urban areas have the lowest charging availability, with 25% of vehicles having current access to Level 1 charging and up to 54% of vehicles having dedicated parking. Additionally, 27% of U.S. households (46% in urban areas) are apartments, where regular tenant turnover and split incentives between landlords and tenants create additional barriers to infrastructure investment. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are discussed in the paper. Future scenarios of plug-in vehicle penetration that ignore limited availability of U.S. residential charging infrastructure opportunities are likely to overestimate.
  Authors: Cherng, TsuWei; Hendrickson, Chris T.; Michalek, Jeremy J.; Traut, Elizabeth
  Authors: Cherng, TsuWei; Hendrickson, Chris T.; Michalek, Jeremy J.; Traut, Elizabeth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4801
• Development of Integrated Vehicle and Traffic Simulator for Evaluation of Routing Strategies of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  Abstract: The authors detail the development of an integrated simulator, “CUIntegration” that can evaluate routing strategies based on energy and/or traffic measures of effectiveness for any alternative fueled vehicles. The integrated interface was designed to run any vehicle model developed with MATLAB-Simulink, and any roadway network developed with traffic microscopic simulation software VISSIM. The authors discuss the architecture of this simulator and provide a case study in which the simulator is utilized for evaluating a routing strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). The route optimization algorithm was developed to route a PHEV based on a driver’s choice, which includes either minimizing travel time, energy consumption or a combination of both. The integrated simulator was developed in a form of Visual Basic API to simulate the algorithm developed in MATLAB and move vehicles in a VISSIM traffic network according to the algorithm. A section of Interstate 83 in Baltimore, Maryland was modeled, calibrated and validated for use in the simulation. The authors considered a worst-case scenario, in which incidents occurred on the main route blocking all lanes. The PHEVs were represented by integrating the MATLAB-Simulink vehicle model with the traffic simulator. The integrated simulator successfully integrated the vehicle model created in MATLAB-Simulink for supporting PHEV routing strategies. Simulation analysis suggests that routing of PHEVs resulted in a 64.68 percent reduction in travel time cost when optimized for travel time and a 15 percent reduction in energy cost when optimized for energy consumption.
  Authors: Bhavsar, Parth; He, Yiming; Chowdhury, Mashrur A.
  Authors: Bhavsar, Parth; He, Yiming; Chowdhury, Mashrur A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4909
• Deploying Plug-in Electric Cars for Work: Compatibility of Varying Daily Patterns of Use with Four Electric Powertrain Architectures
  Abstract: Vehicles with electrified powertrains such as hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in HEV (PHEVs) and AEVs (all-electric vehicles using grid supplied battery energy exclusively) are potentially marketable because of low operating costs, but each come with a significant initial cost penalty in comparison to a conventional vehicle (CV) powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE). This paper selects a subset of three car PHEVs and an AEV from a larger set of simulations. Daily travel of vehicles traveling to and from work is isolated from other vehicle travel in the National Household Travel (NHTS) survey; five different daily distance categories are investigated. Three driving cycle runs are used here – the LA92 cycle, World cycle (WLTC), and a selected Kansas City real driving record. Probable patterns of charging for each PHEV and the AEV are investigated for each daily distance category. The possibility of two charges at work, before and after a lunch trip, is considered, as is the possibility of a charge before and after work. The degree of importance of spending a given pool of money on residential vs. workplace charge point upgrades is discussed. Two indicators of effectiveness of battery pack utilization, (1) a charge depleting (CD) effectiveness factor and (2) grid kWh used per day per dollar of incremental vehicle expense, are developed and target markets for cars used for work for each powertrain type are suggested.
  Authors: Santini, Danilo J.; Zhou, Yan; Kim, Namdoo; Gallagher, Kevin; Vyas, Anant D.
  Authors: Santini, Danilo J.; Zhou, Yan; Kim, Namdoo; Gallagher, Kevin; Vyas, Anant D.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4925
• Electric Vehicle Shortest-Walk Problem
  Abstract: Electric vehicles (EV) have received much attention in the last few years. Still, they have neither been widely accepted by commuters nor by organizations with service fleets. It is predominately the lack of recharging infrastructure that is inhibiting a wide-scale adoption of EVs. The problem of using EVs is especially apparent in long trips, or inter-city trips. Range anxiety, when the driver is concerned that the vehicle will run out of charge before reaching the destination, is a major hindrance for the market penetration of EVs. To develop a recharging infrastructure, it is important to route vehicles from origins to destination with minimum detouring when battery recharging/exchange facilities are few and far between. This paper defines the EV shortest-walk problem to determine the route from a starting point to a destination with minimum detouring; this route may include cycles for detouring to recharge batteries. Two problem scenarios are studied: one is the problem of traveling from an origin to a destination to minimize the travel distance when any number of battery recharge/exchange stops may be made. The other is to travel from origin to destination when a maximum number of stops is specified. It is shown that both of these problems are polynomially solvable and solution algorithms are provided.
  Authors: Adler, Jonathan; Mirchandani, Pitu B.; Xue, Guoliang; Xia, Minjun
  Authors: Adler, Jonathan; Mirchandani, Pitu B.; Xue, Guoliang; Xia, Minjun
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4934
• Charging Infrastructure Planning for Promoting All-Electric Vehicle Market: Activity-Based Assessment Using Multiday Travel Data
  Abstract: This paper proposes an evaluation framework for analyzing the effect of deploying charging infrastructure on promoting all-electric vehicle market and increasing electric miles traveled. An activity-based assessment method is proposed to estimate AEV feasibility for the heterogeneous traveling population in the real world driving context. A genetic algorithm is applied to find (sub)optimal locations for placing electric vehicle chargers. A case study using the GPS-based travel survey data collected in the Seattle metropolitan area shows that electric miles and trips of AEVs could be significantly increased by installing public chargers at popular destinations, with a reasonable infrastructure investment. The impact on the power grid is also evaluated by a 24-hour charging power profile.
  Authors: Dong, Jing; Liu, Changzheng; Lin, Zhenhong
  Authors: Dong, Jing; Liu, Changzheng; Lin, Zhenhong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5176
• New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Alternative Fuel and Vehicle Transitions
  Abstract: A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles is a massive undertaking. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing models such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gaming. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, for providing insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale alternative fuel and vehicle transition themed game is developed to explore the potential of the approach. Preliminary results of game play suggest a possible counter-intuitive dynamic in vehicle transitions by which high energy prices discourage wide scale adoption of alternative fueled vehicles due to the fact that the increased fuel costs reduce consumers’ ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies.
  Authors: Bremson, Joel; Meier, Alan; Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia; Ogden, Joan M.
  Authors: Bremson, Joel; Meier, Alan; Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia; Ogden, Joan M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5210
• How Much on Electric? Looking at PHEV Users' eVMT and How It Might Change--Possible influence of CD Range, Charging Infrastructure, Vehicle Design and Self-selection
  Abstract: Since PHEVs operate in two different energy use modes, establishing how much electric travel is possible with a given CD range is important to properly account for the environmental benefits and petroleum displacement potential of PHEVs. However, given the flexibility of the PHEV drivetrain, a number of factors will shape which vehicles consumers purchase and how the PHEV is used. Current methods for estimating the eVMT potential of a given PHEV focus on assumptions for charging frequency and single day driving diary data. To estimate the potential implications of added workplace, public and DC fast charging infrastructure on the fraction of electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT) consumer PHEV-conversion usage patterns recorded during a vehicle demonstration project are combined with an energy and infrastructure model. The results show that charging infrastructure can increase the fraction of eVMT driving considerably (up to 15 percentage points) but, the benefit varies considerably by household and vehicle CD range. DC fast charging is shown to provide the most benefit of any away from home charging for PHEVs with 70 or more miles of CD range, but the use of fast charging by PHEV consumers will be sensitive to price and time tradeoff considerations. Further analysis of the UF results shows that household’s EV driving experience will vary considerably from the average, which highlights that using a fleet-wide utility factor to plan optimal PHEV ranges will lead to over and under estimates of CD range and battery size requirements for PHEV consumers.
  Authors: Davies, Jamie
  Authors: Davies, Jamie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5261
• Estimating On-Road Fuel Economy of PHEVs from Test and Aggregated Data
  Abstract: When projecting energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for which limited data are available, assumptions must be made in estimating their on-road fuel and electricity use. If only aggregated data are available, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of equivalent fuel economy in miles per gallons of gasoline equivalent (mpgge), additional information/assumptions are needed to disaggregate the mpgge into electricity and fuel use. Furthermore, if only test (lab) values for fuel economy and electricity consumption are available, adjustments must be made to estimate corresponding on-road fuel and electricity consumption. In this paper, methods are examined for estimating the on-road energy consumption (fuel and electricity) of future electric-drive vehicles (e.g., plug-in hybrid electric vehicle [PHEV] and extended-range electric vehicle [EREV]) from city and highway driving cycle fuel economy data or from combined fuel economy data, on the basis of assumptions about driving and charging behavior from previous studies and vehicle simulations.
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas S; Zhou, Yan; Elgowainy, Amgad; Duoba, Michael; Vyas, Anant D.; Rousseau, Aymeric
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas S; Zhou, Yan; Elgowainy, Amgad; Duoba, Michael; Vyas, Anant D.; Rousseau, Aymeric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4755
• Multiobjective Traffic Network Design Accounting for Plug-in Electric Vehicle Energy Consumption
  Abstract: In order to exploit the potential of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) as a sustainable form of transport, this novel technology must be integrated into the traditional transport system planning process. This work takes a step in that direction by incorporating PEV energy consumption rates into network design decisions. Not only is energy consumption a proxy for emissions in traditional vehicles, it will also become an essential issue for regional energy providers who will need to adapt to the additional electricity demand created as PEVs become a more ubiquitous form of transport. This work addresses the network design problem (NDP) to minimize both system level energy consumption and total system travel time, independently and as a multi-objective problem. The NDP is formulated and solved for a road network with a high penetration of PEVs using a heuristic approach. For certain design scenarios, minimizing total system travel time and minimizing energy consumption are demonstrated to be conflicting objectives. The trade-off in terms of each system performance measure is quantified. Based on the results it is evident that both objectives must be considered when planning for future networks that will be comprised of some portion of PEVs.
  Authors: Duell, Melissa; Gardner, Lauren; Waller, S. Travis
  Authors: Duell, Melissa; Gardner, Lauren; Waller, S. Travis
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5203
• Measure for Measure: Using Energy Utility Model to Standardize Evaluation of Transportation Efficiency Measures
  Abstract: As the environmental and financial costs of conventional gasoline become more apparent, there is growing interest in the concept of transportation efficiency. Broadly, this concept involves using less energy to meet current travel demand and often employs a systems-level approach. The transportation sector has much to learn from the electric and thermal energy sectors, where demand management strategies have used established screening tools to assess the environmental and financial benefits of efficiency measures for years. Adoption of such screening tools may be ideal for the transportation sector as electric vehicles (EVs) bring these two sectors together. We present an example of how the Vermont State efficiency screening tool can be used to evaluate a transportation measure: a switch from a conventional vehicle to an electric vehicle. The screening tool results demonstrate that the estimated cost benefits of electric vehicles varies from -$15,911 to $24,645, depending on the model of EV, miles driven annually, and externalities considered, among other factors. The cost effectiveness of EVs was improved by including avoided health costs due to reduced tailpipe emissions. More broadly, our results show that cost-effectiveness screening tools used within the electric and thermal energy sectors provide a meaningful way to assess potential gains in transportation efficiency and can be used for evaluation of other transportation efficiency measures (such as bicycle and walking infrastructure, transit, etc.). Use of such screening tools will aid in communication and collaboration between the energy and transportation sectors, while facilitating a systems-based approach to transportation planning and demand management.
  Authors: Sears, Justine; Glitman, Karen; Fanslow, Greg
  Authors: Sears, Justine; Glitman, Karen; Fanslow, Greg
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0214
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• California Statewide Charging Survey: What Do Drivers Want?
  Abstract: This paper presents the results of a survey of plug-in vehicle owners asking about the current use of charging infrastructure and needed chargers. Consumers are using the full range of the Leaf and 80% of customers have gone to 8% state of charge on their battery. More than 30% charge out of home regularly. For workplace, level 1 is available more often than level 2. For general out of home charging, level 1 is less used comprising 23% of locations identified by respondents. 93% of those commuting in Leafs are within round trip range of work. Correspondingly, there is a high use of workplace charging in the group with long commutes. 40% of Leaf owners have gone farther than the limits of their home territory, requiring charging to complete their tour. For the desire for infrastructure we see several trends. The main desire is for quick charging. Fast chargers are wanted at regional attractors such as downtowns, large malls, airports and other regional services. Quick charging connecting adjacent regions was also indicated by respondents. For Leaf customers, we see a median distance from home to quick chargers of 44 miles. The concept of EV territory was also explored. 40% of respondents more than doubled the area they could access in their EV with their charger choices.
  Authors: Nicholas, Michael Anselm; Tal, Gil; Woodjack, Justin
  Authors: Nicholas, Michael Anselm; Tal, Gil; Woodjack, Justin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5285
• Scenario-Based Climate Change Risk Analysis for Transportation Infrastructure Using GIS
  Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure have been receiving attention in recent years. Risk analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) is an especially useful and increasingly common approach to investigating the potential impacts of climate change on infrastructure. This is because climate change effects are likely to occur in conjunction with other, geographic specific, impacts such as storm surge and traffic operations, whose vulnerability can be most effectively quantified using these GIS-based tools. To demonstrate the efficacy of these tools, this paper presents a scenario-based risk analysis approach to investigate the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure in Hampton Roads, Virginia. This paper first investigates the climate change effects in the study site to develop representative climate change scenarios. Next, a GIS-based evaluation of transportation infrastructure vulnerability to sea-level rise and storm surge is formed by combining the GIS dataset with the results from the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Last, a GIS-based risk map is generated by the proposed risk model under three developed climate change threat scenarios. The results show the City of Virginia Beach is at high risk in all climate change scenarios due to climate change events, high level of transportation activity, and density of transportation facilities. The risk map—a visualization of the risk model—can assist transportation planners and decision-makers in determining asset priority to allocate their resources with respect to emergency preparation and reaction.
  Authors: Wu, Yao-Jan; Hayat, Md. Tanveer; Clarens, Andres; Smith, Brian Lee
  Authors: Wu, Yao-Jan; Hayat, Md. Tanveer; Clarens, Andres; Smith, Brian Lee
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1832
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Economics Behind Electric Vehicles: Analysis from the Private User’s Perspective in France
  Abstract: A holistic total costs of ownership (TCO) approach compares electric with conventional vehicles (EVs with CVs). The impact of policy measures and market trends throughout time is studied; the inclusion of vehicle user- and vehicle usage-characteristics in the set-up calculation model ensures a disaggregate approach that allows for detailed EV-demand projections in future studies. Each vehicle technology accommodated in the set-up TCO calculation model is represented by specific vehicle models that are currently available on the French market. Their characteristics and costs serve as the basis of TCO calculations. Results show that the underlying plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) model is, from a TCO perspective, not competitive with any other electric or conventional vehicle underlying the analysis. This is valid for all developed scenarios and realistic vehicle usage patterns. Assuming that the here selected vehicle models well represent the vehicle technologies in question, it can be expected that the future demand of PHEVs having long electric ranges will fully rely on the goodwill of selected users. The most competitive electric EV type appears to be the battery electric vehicle with battery hire. The development of ‘financially reasoned’ demand for this vehicle and business model seems therefore realistic. Generally, compact electric vehicles that are to replace petrol vehicles appear to be more competitive with their conventional counterparts than sedan vehicles that are to replace diesel-driven vehicles. All results refer to current and forecasted French framework conditions and are subject to various necessary assumptions.
  Authors: Windisch, Elisabeth
  Authors: Windisch, Elisabeth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2019
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Microscopic Simulation of Transit Bus Emissions Under Transit Signal Priority and Alternative Technology
  Abstract: The benefits of public transit in terms of reducing transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions is a topic that needs little introduction. The literature swells with studies comparing per-passenger emissions in transit with emissions from single occupancy vehicles, stressing the importance of increasing transit ridership. We argue that increasing transit ridership is not sufficient to achieve meaningful emission reductions at a regional level. In Montreal, transit operations and technology are in dire need for improvement and additional reductions in transit emissions largely depend on the types of fuels used and driving conditions. We microsimulated the operations and emissions of transit buses along a busy transit corridor and quantified the effects of two different fuels (conventional diesel and compressed natural gas) as well as a set of driving conditions on emissions. Results indicate that compressed natural gas (CNG) reduces GHG emissions by 8-12% compared to conventional diesel. However, the benefits of switching from conventional diesel to CNG are less apparent when the road network is uncongested. As congestion levels rise, the emission reductions associated with CNG improve. We also investigated the effects of bus operations on emissions by applying several strategies such as transit signal priority (TSP), queue jumper lanes, and relocations of bus-stops. Results show that TSP alone can reduce emissions by 14% and when combined with improved technology; a reduction of 23% is achieved. The reduction benefits are even more apparent when other transit operational improvements are combined with TSP.
  Authors: Alam, Ahsan; Hatzopoulou, Marianne
  Authors: Alam, Ahsan; Hatzopoulou, Marianne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2676
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Influencing Sustainable Travel Intention Through Contextualized Presentation Format
  Abstract: Climate change is a global problem and transportation is a major contributor to it. In response to that problem, CO2 information on transport is being provided to the public to aid with informed decision-making. Choice experiments have found that CO2 mass information could influence choice, however, other research suggests that CO2 presented as mass is not fully understood and that the presentation of CO2 information affects interpretation. If a presentation format can affect understanding and interpretation, might it then affect intention (and choice) to perform sustainable travel? It can be argued that without information context, it would be difficult to interpret the appropriateness of CO2 information presented as mass. Information context, associated with alternative presentation formats, can highlight some aspects of the information to influence intention and choice, have it related to a societal goal, and could aid with analytical decision-making. If a format performs better in an analytical task, does it follow that it would have greater impact on influencing behavioral intention? Or might a format that includes emotional context result in stronger behavioral intention? This research examined how people’s behavioral intention responses for car use varied by three different contextualized formats (carbon budget, tree-equivalent, and earth-equivalent) in comparison to the information content format of simply CO2 mass.
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen D.; Avineri, Erel
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen D.; Avineri, Erel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2872
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Data Collection and Analysis in a Pan-European Electric Vehicle Fleet
  Abstract: Electric vehicles are expected to replace a significant portion of existing light vehicle fleets around the developed world over the coming decades. The technology offers several benefits both on environmental and user levels when compared to traditional combustion engines. As the cost of fossil fuels continue to rise and the price of electromobility drops, this method of transport will become more prevalent. Analysis of early stage electric vehicle usage will allow stakeholders to plan the policy and infrastructure needed to facilitate and manage large scale roll out of the technology. A large collection of electric vehicle fleets and infrastructure networks operating in several European regions are monitored for analysis. The authors present preliminary results showing charging infrastructure utilisation for a range of vehicle and charge point use cases. This initial analysis shows that the usage levels for public infrastructure are low, while home charging is responsible for the highest levels of charge consumption. Business use cases, both for charge points and vehicles are characterised by high levels of peak time activity. Private use vehicles and household charge points show a concentration of energy usage in the latter part of the day, with a considerable peak in the early evening. All use cases display several hours of inactivity during the night time, both for charge events and travel patterns, confirming the potential for managed charging to take advantage of periods of low demand for electric vehicle charging. The data highlights the need for pricing incentives to regulate charging behaviour.
  Authors: McDonald, Paul; Brady, John Patrick; O'Mahony, Margaret; Sanmarti, Manel; Daly, Mark; McGrath, Senan; Vierheilig, Norbert
  Authors: McDonald, Paul; Brady, John Patrick; O'Mahony, Margaret; Sanmarti, Manel; Daly, Mark; McGrath, Senan; Vierheilig, Norbert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1021
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Generalized Methodology for Establishing CO2 Off-Cycle Credits as Part of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards
  Abstract: Automobile fuel economy standards in the United States have remained relatively flat for several decades. However, with the recent concern of reducing greenhouse gases (GHG, in particular carbon dioxide CO2), new federal GHG and fuel economy regulations have been proposed and have gone into place starting in 2009. The current standards cover model years 2012-2016, requiring an ultimate 35.5 miles per gallon. Recently, a more aggressive second phase of fuel efficiency goals have been proposed, targeting model years 2017-2025 that requires performance equivalent to 54.5 mpg or 163 grams/mile of CO2 for vehicles by model year 2025. As part of this proposal, regulators will allow for additional “off-cycle” credits for technologies that can reduce CO2 emissions, but the CO2 reductions are not necessarily measurable on standard vehicle fuel economy dynamometer-based test cycle procedures. This is typically the case for technologies that aim to smooth the velocity profile of a vehicle, such as eco-driving and related technologies. To qualify for these off-cycle credits, automobile manufacturers must quantitatively demonstrate CO2 reductions due to their technology. This paper describes a proposed generalized methodology for establishing these off-cycle credits.
  Authors: Barth, Matthew J.; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Todd, Michael; Ishizaka, Tetsuhiro; Williams, Nigel
  Authors: Barth, Matthew J.; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Todd, Michael; Ishizaka, Tetsuhiro; Williams, Nigel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4362
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Assessing Public Transportation Agencies’ Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs
  Abstract: Climates are changing throughout the world, including on a regional level in North America. It is likely that changes to four aspects of the climate will cause the greatest impacts to transit infrastructure and operations: intense precipitation, very hot days and heat waves, rising sea levels, and storm (e.g., hurricane) intensity. Climate changes will affect the way transportation professionals manage their multimodal transportation infrastructure. A region or city’s ability to adapt their vulnerable transportation infrastructure and operations to climate-related impacts will determine the resilience of that community’s transportation system. Federal agencies have led the way in adapting many transportation modes to climate changes. A literature review and analysis of current activities and a survey of 300 transit agencies found that focus at the transit agency level was on mitigation of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, transit agencies are facing impacts caused by current weather conditions and by future climate change. The review highlights 17 agencies conducting climate adaptation activities, mostly as part of federally-funded pilot projects. The online survey focused on gathering information such as whether the agencies were involved in climate change adaptation activities, which activities they have or are currently engaged in to assess potential impacts of weather and climate change on their facilities and operations and the relative importance of different resources to effectively assess these impacts. The most common barriers to conducting activities seems to be a lack of funding, lack of access to information and tools (including regional-scale data) and lack of organizational priority.
  Authors: MacArthur, John H
  Authors: MacArthur, John H
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4525
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Spatially Disaggregated Domestic Road Transport Energy Demand in Great Britain
  Abstract: Reducing energy consumption is an important objective of policy makers. Road transport accounts for a significant portion of energy consumption in the UK and worldwide. This paper presents a method of highly spatial disaggregation of domestic road transport energy demand in Great Britain using a “home-based” modelling approach. Specifically, a household-based car ownership model was developed using the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF) data. Car ownership and regional effects are controlled for in this model. The modelling results are combined with census data so as to predict transport energy demand by small census tract (i.e. output area, OA) in Great Britain. The spatial distribution of road transport energy demand is also mapped at the resolution of 1km square grid.It is anticipated that the home-based transport energy demand model developed in this paper is useful and informative for policy makers and planners, for instance plan of electricity supply and energy crops as electric and biofuel cars are increasingly becoming popular.
  Authors: Wang, Chao; Firth, Steven; Taylor, Simon; Quddus, Mohammed A.
  Authors: Wang, Chao; Firth, Steven; Taylor, Simon; Quddus, Mohammed A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3588
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Reconsidering the Choice Between Gasoline and Diesel Cars: Modeling Both Demand and Automakers' Reaction
  Abstract:

  Abstract Fuel taxation may be used to cover environmental costs associated with fuel consumption by road vehicles. It also represents a large source of revenue for Governments, especially in Europe, and France in particular. Furthermore, different taxation levels of fuels have often been a way to support an industrial sector. In France for instance, the main fuel tax is lower for diesel fuel than for gasoline. Yet, on the one hand, from an environmental viewpoint, several studies show that gasoline is over-taxed whereas diesel fuel is under-taxed. On the other hand, from users' viewpoint, diesel cars have several appealing characteristics: they are more fuel-efficient and their fuel is cheaper (at least in France and several European countries). They are however more expensive, partly because automakers capture a large part of the expected gains. A change in the taxation levels of fuels is thus expected to have an impact on engine type choice by households and firms, while automakers will in return change their pricing strategies in order to maintain their profits. The expected outcome is thus undetermined. This paper aims at giving insights into this question, by modeling both the demand and the supply sides of the car market using French data. The paper also gives expected outcomes of different taxation schemes at the car fleet level in the long run for France. We show that a 60% increase in the tax on diesel fuel would entail a decrease in the dieselization rate at the fleet level from 65% to 50% between 2011 and 2030, and in overall CO2 emissions of passenger cars by 3.5%.

  Authors: Breteau, Vincent; Weber, Simon
  Authors: Breteau, Vincent; Weber, Simon
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1051
• Measure for Measure: Using Energy Utility Model to Standardize Evaluation of Transportation Efficiency Measures
  Authors: Sears, Justine
  Authors: Sears, Justine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0214
• Biodiesel from Microalgae in Lagoons: Acceptable Alternative Fuel for the Transportation Crunch?
  Authors: Coelho, Margarida
  Authors: Coelho, Margarida
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0767
• Catching the PHEVer: Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion with Agent-Based Mixed Logit Model of Vehicle Choice
  Authors: Brown, Maxwell
  Authors: Brown, Maxwell
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1099
• Valuation of Plug-in Vehicle Life-Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1224
• Electric Vehicle Charging Station Location Problem: A Parking-Based Assignment Method for Seattle, Washington
  Authors: Kockelman, Kara
  Authors: Kockelman, Kara
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1254
• Quick Estimation Method for Greenhouse Gas Emissions at Intersections
  Authors: Stanek, David
  Authors: Stanek, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1428
• Study of Effect on GHG Emissions by Addition of Transit Mode in Existing Road Network and Optimal Emission Pricing Models for Reducing Carbon Footprint
  Authors: Sharma, Sushant
  Authors: Sharma, Sushant
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1579
• Presentation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Information for Smartphone Applications
  Authors: Caulfield, Brian
  Authors: Caulfield, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2030
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Current and Near-Term Bus Technologies in London
  Authors: Chong, Uven
  Authors: Chong, Uven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2031
• Travel Behavior and E-mobility in Germany: Is the Problem the Driving Range or Costs or Both?
  Authors: Rudloff, Christian
  Authors: Rudloff, Christian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2114
• Effects of Temperature and Thermal Management on Battery Life in Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2220
• Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainability in the Transportation Sector
  Authors: Rouhani, Omid
  Authors: Rouhani, Omid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3195
• Impacts of Energy Developments on Highway Systems
  Authors: Quiroga, Cesar
  Authors: Quiroga, Cesar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3650
• Creating Per Capita Transportation CO2 Indicator for European Cities Through Geographic Information System
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-3906
• Comparison Between Long-Term Effects of Road Development and Railway Development for Low-Carbon Urban Transport System in Bangkok, Thailand
  Authors: Nakamura, Kazuki
  Authors: Nakamura, Kazuki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4101
• Accommodating Electric Vehicle Charging in California's Power Sector: Regional Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
  Authors: Sohnen, Julia
  Authors: Sohnen, Julia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4120
• Road Transport Fuel Consumption Trends in the United Kingdom: Empirical Analysis of Diesel Demand
  Authors: Ramli, Ahmad Razi
  Authors: Ramli, Ahmad Razi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4313
• Assessing Public Transportation Agencies' Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs
  Authors: MacArthur, John
  Keywords: scientific; research; template; custom; poster; presentation; symposium; printing; PowerPoint; create; design; example; sample; download
  Authors: MacArthur, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4525
• U.S. Residential Charging Potential for Plug-In Vehicles
  Authors: Traut, Elizabeth
  Authors: Traut, Elizabeth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4801
• Estimating On-Road Fuel Economy of PHEVs from Test and Aggregated Data
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4755
• Development of Integrated Vehicle and Traffic Simulator for Evaluation of Routing Strategies of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  Authors: Bhavsar, Parth
  Authors: Bhavsar, Parth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4909
• Multiobjective Traffic Network Design Accounting for Plug-in Electric Vehicle Energy Consumption
  Authors: Duell, Melissa
  Authors: Duell, Melissa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-5203
• Accounting for Timing and Investment Constraints in Vehicle Deployment Analyses
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas
  Authors: Stephens, Thomas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0283
• Projecting Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Japanese Passenger Cars up to 2020: Using Index Decomposition Techniques
  Authors: Mishina, Yoshinori
  Authors: Mishina, Yoshinori
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0286
• Charging Choices and Fuel Displacement in a Large-Scale Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Demonstration
  Authors: Zoepf, Stephen
  Authors: Zoepf, Stephen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0533
• Charging Choices and Fuel Displacement in a Large-Scale Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Demonstration
  Authors: MacKenzie, Donald
  Authors: MacKenzie, Donald
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0533
• Cost-Effectiveness of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Capacity and Charging Infrastructure Investment for Reducing U.S. Gasoline Consumption
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2120
• Influencing Sustainable Travel Intention Through Contextualized Presentation Format
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen
  Authors: Waygood, E. Owen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2872
• U.S. Residential Charging Potential for Plug-In Vehicles
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Authors: Michalek, Jeremy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-4801
• Life-Cycle Assessment of Diesel-Electric Hybrid Trucks and Conventional Diesel Trucks for Curbside Deliveries
  Authors: Bachmann, Chris
  Authors: Bachmann, Chris
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1374
• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies in Road Freight Transport in Mexico
  Authors: Menendez, Cynthia
  Authors: Menendez, Cynthia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0992
• Sustainable Biofuel Supply Chain Planning and Management Under Uncertainty
  Authors: Xie, Fei
  Authors: Xie, Fei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-1083
• Analysis of Household Vehicle Usage and Ownership Under Different Taxation Policies
  Authors: Kuwano, Masashi
  Authors: Kuwano, Masashi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2478
• Development and Evaluation of Intelligent Energy Management Strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
  Authors: Wu, Guoyuan
  Authors: Wu, Guoyuan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-2457
• Charging Choices and Fuel Displacement in a Large-Scale Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Demonstration
  Abstract:

  As relatively few plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have been deployed to date, existing analyses of the effects of PHEVs on gasoline and electricity demand have relied on travel patterns of conventional vehicles and assumption-driven charging scenarios. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of a real-world fleet of 125 instrumented PHEV prototypes deployed in the United States over a one-year period. First, the trial is introduced and the patterns of travel, charging behavior and energy consumption observed are analyzed. Second, a mixed logit model of the decision to charge at the end of each trip is estimated. The results indicate that charging is most likely after the day’s last trip, when ending at home, and when there are more than 3 hours before the next trip, although significant heterogeneity exists between drivers. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first application of a discrete choice model to the empirical analysis of plug-in vehicle charging. Third, the performance of this fleet assuming different vehicle designs and charging patterns is simulated. Aggressive opportunistic charging after every trip would result in approximately the same fuel savings as increasing the battery size by a factor of five. However, fast charging would provide only marginal changes in energy use given the observed utilization patterns.

  Authors: Zoepf, Stephen; MacKenzie, Donald Warren; Keith, David; Chernicoff, William P.
  Authors: Zoepf, Stephen; MacKenzie, Donald Warren; Keith, David; Chernicoff, William P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Environment
  Session: 503
  Paper Number: 13-0533