2013 Session: 507

• Landscape Pattern and Car Use: Evidence Linking Household Data with Satellite Imagery
  Abstract: Landscape pattern has long been hypothesized to influence automobile dependency. This paper extends this inquiry of quantifying landscape pattern to predict automobile use by drawing on satellite data in order to gain greater spatial coverage of household profiles. Furthermore, because choices about land development tend to have long-lasting impacts that span over decades, understanding the magnitude of this influence is critical to the design of policies to reduce emissions and other negative externalities associated with car use. Combining household survey data from Germany with satellite imagery and other geo-referenced data sources, we address this topic with an econometric analysis of the relation between landscape pattern and automobile dependency. Specifically, we employ a two-part model to investigate two dimensions of car use, the discrete decision to own a car and, conditional upon ownership, the continuous decision of how far to drive. Results indicate that landscape pattern, as captured by measures of both land cover (e.g. the extent of open space and landscape diversity) and land use (e.g. the density and composition of regional businesses) are important predictors of car ownership and use. Other policy-relevant variables, such as fuel prices and public transit infrastructure, are also identified as important correlates. Based on the magnitude of our estimates we conclude that carefully considered land development measures, ones that encourage dense development and mixed use, can have beneficial impacts in reducing car dependency that extend far into the future. Key terms: Landscape pattern, Satellite imagery, Germany, Two-part model
  Authors: Keller, Rose; Vance, Colin
  Authors: Keller, Rose; Vance, Colin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-0810
• A Spatial Autoregressive Multinomial Probit Model for Anticipating Land Use Change in Austin, Texas
  Abstract: This paper develops an estimation strategy for and then applies a spatial autoregressive multinomial probit (SAR MNP) model to account for both spatial clustering and cross-alternative correlation. Estimation is achieved using Bayesian techniques with Gibbs and generalized direct sampling. The model is applied to analyze land development decisions for undeveloped parcels over a 6-year period in Austin, Texas. Estimation results suggest that residential and commercial/civic development tends to favor more regularly shaped and smaller parcels, which may be related to parcel conversion costs and aesthetics. Longer distances to Austin’s central business district increase the likelihood of residential development, while reducing that of commercial/civic and office/industrial uses. Everything else constant, distances to a parcel’s nearest minor and major arterial roads are estimated to increase development likelihood in all use types, perhaps because development is more common in less densely developed locations (as proxied by fewer arterials). As expected, added soil slope is estimated to be negatively associated with all three types of development, though its effect on residential uses is not significant (perhaps due to some steeper terrains offering view benefits). Estimates of the cross-alternative correlations suggest that a parcel’s residential use “utility” or attractiveness tends to be negatively correlated with that of commercial/civic and office/industrial uses, while the latter two land uses exhibit some positive correlation. Using an inverse-distance weight matrix for each parcel’s closest 50 neighbors, the spatial autocorrelation coefficient is estimated to be 0.712, indicating a marked spatial clustering pattern for land development in the selected region.
  Authors: Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara; Damien, Paul
  Authors: Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara; Damien, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-1250
• The Effects of Urban Sprawl on Daily Life: Smart Growth Implementation of Atlantic Station
  Abstract: Urban sprawl is a multifaceted concept, which includes the spreading outwards of a city and its suburbs to its outskirts to low-density and auto-dependent development on rural land, high segregation of uses, and various design features that encourage car dependency. Urban sprawl directly impacts traffic congestion, high oil consumption, and many other transportation issues. It is evident that urban sprawl has negative impacts on both air quality and public health, which affects the human condition. This results in health issues for inner-city residents and air pollution. Air pollution can affect our health in many ways with both short-term and long-term effects. The purpose of this research paper is to determine if Urban Sprawl is an emerging dilemma or if it has been an issue in past civilizations. Also to evaluate the positive and negative effects of urban sprawl on daily lives in the United States. To analyze whether or not the use of a Smart Growth project in the southeast that has been implemented, significantly addresses the effects of urban sprawl. Finally to review past and present studies done on urban sprawl that will give insight on how urban sprawl came to be, so conclusions and recommendations for future research can be developed.
  Authors: Brunner, Andrew Middle
  Authors: Brunner, Andrew Middle
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-2077
• Modeling Transportation Affordability with Cumulative Density Function of Mathematical Beta Distribution
  Abstract: Transportation affordability refers to people’s financial ability to access important goods and activities such as work, education, medical care, basic shopping and socializing. Making transportation more affordable can produce considerable socio-economic benefits by lowering the costs and boosting mobility for people that are more disadvantaged. More affordable transportation is equivalent to higher income. There are many factors to consider when evaluating transportation affordability, including housing affordability; land use factors that affect accessibility; the quantity, quality and pricing of mobility options; and individuals’ mobility needs and abilities. Traditional transportation planning hardly takes into account any transportation affordability considerations. Greater emphasis on this field would shed more light on affordability impacts and help policy makers to identify more affordable transportation solutions. However, to take transportation affordability into account there should be practical ways of evaluating it.This paper investigates the concept of transportation affordability and suggests a metric for its measurement. The metric calculates affordability based on the tradeoffs that households make between transportation and housing costs. The transportation costs considered include car ownership, car use and public transport costs. The suggested approach can be applied to any spatial zone (e.g. neighborhood or other) to reflect the average expenditure that households are willing to make to satisfy their basic travel needs.
  Authors: Panou, Konstantinos; Proios, George
  Authors: Panou, Konstantinos; Proios, George
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-2708
• Location Quotient Assessment of Age and Income Trends in Four Metropolitan Regions Between 2000 and 2010
  Abstract: American cities are becoming more desirable places to live. Census data show that over the past decade central cities have experienced an increase in the concentration of younger and more affluent populations living within 3 miles of the central business district. Yet, the same data show an increasing concentration of older, less affluent populations in the suburbs. Concentrations of seniors and lower income earners decreased drastically near CBDs between 2000 and 2010. Smart growth policies have had the positive impact of turning the central city into a desirable place, but new urban dilemmas have emerged. Growing concentration of seniors and low income earners in the suburbs poses significant policy implications for urban planners. This research highlights the extent of gentrification occurring in four major metropolitan areas and highlights the need for increased attention to the land use and transportation issues brought on by this new demographic shift.
  Authors: Peterson, Collin Ross; Nelson, Arthur C.
  Authors: Peterson, Collin Ross; Nelson, Arthur C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3402
• Industrial Space Demand and Freight Transportation Activity: Exploring the Connection
  Abstract: There has been continuing interest among transportation planners, economic development specialists and private industry about the relationship between the demand for industrial space and the level of freight transportation activity. With the growing importance of logistics and supply chain economics to many industrial and business activities, the organization of industrial activity and optimal location of warehousing and operational centers must increasingly consider the availability, quality and cost of a range of transportation services, particularly in connection with essential intermodal activities. Accordingly, development of major logistics parks in conjunction with major intermodal hubs has become an important element in the overall industrial economy, predicated on the notion that robust freight activity is a good indicator of demand for industrial space. In this study, using regression techniques, we examine the relationship between freight transportation activity and industrial space demand at the metropolitan area level. The results confirm this relationship, reflecting significant statistical association between higher levels of freight traffic and higher levels of industrial space demand. This relationship is more pronounced in inland versus port markets. In addition, the data reveals that there was a shock to the demand for industrial space in the year 2001, thereby altering the structural relationship between demand and the drivers of demand.
  Authors: Lindsey, Christopher; Mahmassani, Hani S.; Mullarkey, Matt; Nash, Terry; Rothberg, Steven
  Authors: Lindsey, Christopher; Mahmassani, Hani S.; Mullarkey, Matt; Nash, Terry; Rothberg, Steven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3493
• Development Review in District of Columbia: Transitioning from Traditional Traffic Impact Study to Comprehensive Multimodal Transportation Review
  Abstract: As part of the District Department of Transportation’s (DDOT) vision and commitment to more sustainable travel practices, safer streets and access to goods and services, DDOT evaluates the effect of public and private development proposals that come before the District’s Office of Zoning. Previously, this evaluation focused largely on automobile impacts on the District’s roadway network. Given the high percentage non-auto commuting trips, along with an extensive capital and operational investment in the District’s comprehensive transportation infrastructure, DDOT has transitioned to a new multimodal paradigm for evaluating a development’s impacts. To meet multi-modal strategic objectives in the District’s Comprehensive Plan, DDOT has transitioned to a structured model for evaluating transportation impacts and potential mitigation across all travel modes. This model is built upon new comprehensive transportation review guidelines, which replace the traditional traffic impact study and provide a standardized process to a developer, delineating the method of collecting and analyzing data in support of their project in order to be in compliance with DDOT policies. In addition, the new guidelines provide a process for the interpretation of data, allowing DDOT to develop opinions and recommendations to a zoning body on a development’s impacts. Further, a new set of standardized forms and reporting documents ensure consistent and structured interaction among DDOT, developers, and zoning bodies, throughout the zoning process from project inception through permitting.
  Authors: White, Bryon Joshua; Zimbabwe, Sam; Parker, Martin; Henson, James
  Authors: White, Bryon Joshua; Zimbabwe, Sam; Parker, Martin; Henson, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4172
• Analysis of Transportation-Oriented Development in Washington, DC, and Baltimore Metropolitan Areas
  Abstract: Transit-oriented development (TOD) is mainly focused on providing transit service along with high density development and mixed use to encourage transit ridership. A TOD can be defined as “a place of relatively higher density that includes a mixture of residential, employment, shopping and civic uses and types located within an easy walk of a bus or rail transit center” . TODs are fast-growing developments and are getting more and more popular among city planners, land developers, and government officials because of their potential to reduce congestion, increase transit ridership and reduce VMT through shortening trips. However, there is not enough research done on how successful TODs are in providing sustainable transportation modes, and thus reducing energy consumption, pollution, and traffic congestion in urban areas. The present study examines people’s travel behavior in TOD and non-TOD areas in the Washington, DC and Baltimore metropolitan areas. This is done in order to analyze the effectiveness of TODs on encouraging more sustainable travel pattern via more transit use, walking, and bicycling. The question of “can transit-oriented development (TOD) reduce vehicle miles of travel?” has been asked frequently, since TOD was first proposed and implemented in urban areas. This paper tries to find a viable answer to this question by analyzing the travel behavior of the DC and Baltimore residents. Our results indicate that people living close to major transit stations tend to drive less, reducing the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by around 20 percent in DC and 21 percent in Baltimore for those who live in TOD areas, compared to non-TOD areas even with similar land use patterns.
  Authors: Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3840
• Capitalization Effects of Rail and Bus Transit on Residential Property Values in a Booming Economy: Evidence from Beijing
  Abstract: This research investigates the capitalization effects of proximity to rail transit and BRT in fast-growing Beijing. Few related studies have been conducted for Chinese cities because the real estate market was not established until recently. Data were collected on apartment homes sold in the Beijing metropolitan area during 2011, and hedonic price modeling was employed to gauge the price premiums or discounts associated with proximity to transit stations. Overall, we find an average price premium of around 5% for properties near rail transit stations, but no statistically significant effects are detected at BRT station areas. Moreover, we find that station-proximity effects tend to increase both in magnitude and spatial extent at stations farther away from the city center and at stations surrounded by low- and middle-income neighborhoods; for example, the price premium can be as high as 10% in some suburban and low-income station areas. The station-proximity effects we found in Beijing have the similar magnitude as the effects found in North American cities. We conclude that rail-transit investment is an effective strategy for Beijing to reshape its urban spatial structure and Rail + Property Development model could be a new financing solution for rail-transit investment. This study contributes to the evidence of capitalization effects of public transit from a booming and transitional economy.
  Authors: Ma, Liang; Ye, Runing; Titheridge, Helena
  Authors: Ma, Liang; Ye, Runing; Titheridge, Helena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4875
• Explaining the “immigrant effect” on auto use: The influences of neighborhoods and preferences
  Abstract: Immigrants make up a growing share of urban employment and population growth, a trend expected for the foreseeable future. They travel very differently than the US-born, with a greater reliance on alternative modes such as carpooling, public transit, bicycling and walking, even when controlling for demographics and regional built environment characteristics—a phenomenon I call the “immigrant effect.” Reasons for these differences are much discussed but little investigated, largely because data are not available. This study uses a unique and rich dataset to permit a deeper investigation of some hypotheses than earlier research on immigrant work and non-work travel. It looks at two distinct groups of immigrants—US residents born in South Asia and Latin America—using an original survey carried out in New Jersey, along with geographic data on homes and workplaces. Statistical analysis of current work and non-work auto use focuses on small-scale spatial characteristics as well as measures of preferences: residential location criteria, and migration motives. These pathways partly explain the lower reliance on autos by Latin American immigrants, particularly home neighborhood population density, rail and bus availability, and access to grocery stores and restaurants, though controlling for neighborhoods increases the effect for South Asians. Enclave measures are less significant than built environment measures. Preference measures play a much smaller role in explaining the immigrant effect than do neighborhood measures, although those who migrated to the US to join family are somewhat more likely to use autos.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-5008
• Joint Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit and Urban Form on Vehicle Ownership Among Low-Income Households: New Evidence from Quasi-longitudinal Analysis in Bogota, Colombia
  Abstract: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has become popular as a means to provide reliable, non-automobile-based mobility and alleviate the impacts of rising traffic congestion in cities around the world. To date, however, there is little empirical evidence supporting BRT’s potential to meet these objectives, particularly for lower income households. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge regarding the urban form conditions necessary to support BRT. This research improves our understanding of BRT’s potential as an alternative to vehicle ownership for lower income households and provides new evidence on the role of urban form in supporting transit investment. We use a difference-in-differences research design to examine the change in vehicle ownership from before to after implementation of Bogotá, Colombia’s TransMilenio BRT system. Our results indicate access to TransMilenio’s main trunk system is not significantly related to the odds of vehicle ownership for lower income households except in neighborhoods with urban forms that are supportive of walking, bicycling, and transit use. Furthermore, we find access to TransMilenio’s feeder system is associated with an unexpected increase in the odds of vehicle ownership; however, that increase is overcome by supportive urban form. This research contributes to the debate about the transportation-urban form connection by demonstrating that urban form and transit access have a synergistic effect on vehicle ownership. Neglecting this synergy may lead to inconsistent or misleading results. Our findings also suggest that the benefits of BRT investment may not accrue to lower income households unless that investment is coordinated with policies to promote supportive urban form.
  Authors: Combs, Tabitha; Rodriguez, Daniel A.
  Authors: Combs, Tabitha; Rodriguez, Daniel A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-1550
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Measuring Travel Behavior and Transit Trip Generation Characteristics of Transit-Oriented Developments
  Abstract: Transit Orientated Developments (TODs) have been recognized as a promising proposition for policy makers and land developers to meet the challenges of urban sprawl. The rapid pace with which TODs are being developed across United States has left policy makers and transportation planners looking for methods aimed at modeling travel characteristics of TODs. ITE trip generation models are generally based on consolidated survey data from various landuses and are inadequate in serving the planning needs for travel demand parameters necessary to predict trip generation rates, develop trip distribution tables, identify mode choice characteristics, and determine trip assignment of TODs. The primary foci of this research are to understand the trip making behavior of the TODs and develop a methodology for determining vehicular trip generation rates. Comparative assessment of TOD vis-à-vis non-TODs with respect to trip rates, transit usage, and primary travel mode is performed. A regression model relating TOD trip ends to gross floor area (GFA), was developed and validated The model behavior is consistent with the industry state-of-practice which will assist transportation practitioners accurately forecast trip generation rate for TODs. The validation of the regression model is performed by checking for normality, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity of the independent variable. The activity-based survey data used for this research is associated with the Washington D.C. Metropolitan area which provided a wealth of transit-oriented corridors, and diverse land use. The use of this data mitigates loss of computational information frequently ensued by aggregate data, hence providing a more accurate quantitative forecast.
  Authors: Venigalla, Mohan; Faghri, Arsalan
  Authors: Venigalla, Mohan; Faghri, Arsalan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3624
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Influence of Neighborhood Types on Trip Distances: Case Study of Central Ohio
  Abstract: This study examines the relationships between land use, transportation infrastructure, household and individual characteristics, and the resulting average trip distances using data from the 1999 Mid-Ohio Area Household Travel Survey. A multiple regression model is developed to analyze the determinants of average trip distances at the person level. First, new neighborhood categories are created using K-means cluster analysis and several land use and built environment variables. Then, these new neighborhood categories (such as central city residential areas, medium density suburbs, newly built low density suburbs, etc. ) are used as independent variables to explain the resulting average trip distances, while controlling for socio-demographics and access to transit and bicycle facilities. The results indicate that the residential location characteristics are a significant factor in explaining trip distances, people who live in areas which are away from urban centers and with a low mix of employment and population travel longer distances. For the Central Ohio Region, residing in lowest density suburbs may add up to 20% to average trip distances.
  Authors: Akar, Gulsah; Chen, Na; Gordon, Steven I.
  Authors: Akar, Gulsah; Chen, Na; Gordon, Steven I.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3938
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Modeling Effect of Land Use on Person Miles Traveled Using Geographically Weighted Regression
  Abstract: This study contributes to the literature by developing a geographically-weighted regression (GWR) model for capturing the impacts of land use on person-miles traveled and demonstrating its benefits over simpler methods. Travel survey and land-use data from South-East Florida were used in this analysis. The empirical results reconfirm the strong impacts of regional accessibility, land-use mixing, and connectivity on PMT. These land-use effects were estimated to be significant after controlling for socio-economic variables. Further, the GWR model demonstrates that the marginal sensitivities of PMT to various land-use attributes do vary over space. This spatial variation was particularly strong in the case of the effect of regional accessibility. The empirical results show that allowing for flexible trends in the parameter effects does improve the models and explain a greater proportion of the variance in PMT across the region. The study also highlights the statistical superiority of the GWR model over the global regression models.
  Authors: Nowrouzian, Roosbeh; Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan
  Authors: Nowrouzian, Roosbeh; Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4782
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Location and Transportation Effects on Nonresidential Real Estate: Price Regressions in Windsor, Ontario
  Abstract: In this paper, land prices for non-residential real estate listings in Windsor, Ontario are analyzed using OLS regression models. Location and transportation attributes are employed in the analysis to explain observed land prices. A total of 7 models are estimated to control the heterogeneity among land use types. The results show differences in the factors explaining land prices among the models indicating that caution should be used when aggregating land use types together. The role of transportation carried mixed results. Rail had a positive impact for industrial properties but was negative for commercial and food services. Transit had a positive effect on vacant land. Direct proximity to highway ramps had a negative correlation for vacant land, but indirect variables such as potential (residential) accessibility and time to the CBD indicate the positive impacts that roads/highways have. Testing showed that while spatial autocorrelation was present in the price data, the independent regressors used in the modeling partially mitigated this effect. Both multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity were also accounted for throughout the modeling process. The results obtained provide a useful account of various spatial and transportation related phenomena for a midsize Canadian metropolitan area. Moreover, the empirical analysis is particularly valuable given the lack of modeling done on the commercial / industrial prices when compared to those done for residential properties.
  Authors: Gingerich, Kevin; Maoh, Hanna; Anderson, William P.
  Authors: Gingerich, Kevin; Maoh, Hanna; Anderson, William P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4550
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Analyzing Temporal Changes in Land Use-Transportation Relationships Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Database
  Abstract:

  Over the last decades there has been intense focus on better understanding land use-transportation relationships. One prominent area of research within this nexus has examined whether urban structural characteristics, such as the balance of jobs and housing, impacts broader transportation patterns, particularly commuting outcomes. Researchers have sought to quantify relationships in comparative studies across space and time, without fully realizing the latter due to sparse data availability, mainly due to reliance on government census type products which often lack adequate temporal resolution. This research utilizes a relatively new database from the U.S. Census known as the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) to explore commuting-land use relationships. This database has a high degree of spatial and temporal resolution, with worker information reported annually 2002-2010. Locations of workers, jobs, and their commute flows are resolved to the census block scale facilitating a high level of spatial accuracy. We analyze LEHD data over a 9-year period from 2002-2010 for a mid-size urban area. Estimation of several commuting and jobs-housing metrics lends insights into growth and decline that have occurred in the recent housing boom and bust, and their broader implications for travel patterns.

  Authors: Horner, Mark W.; Schleith, Daniel
  Authors: Horner, Mark W.; Schleith, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-1072
• Development Review in District of Columbia: Transitioning from Traditional Traffic Impact Study to Comprehensive Multimodal Transportation Review
  Authors: White, Bryon
  Authors: White, Bryon
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4172
• Capitalization Effects of Rail and Bus Transit on Residential Property Values in a Booming Economy: Evidence from Beijing
  Authors: Ma, Liang
  Authors: Ma, Liang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4875
• Landscape Pattern and Car Use: Evidence Linking Household Data with Satellite Imagery
  Authors: Keller, Rose
  Authors: Keller, Rose
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-0810
• A Spatial Autoregressive Multinomial Probit Model for Anticipating Land Use Change in Austin, Texas
  Authors: Kockelman, Kara
  Authors: Kockelman, Kara
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-1250
• Influence of Neighborhood Types on Trip Distances: Case Study of Central Ohio
  Authors: Akar, Gulsah
  Authors: Akar, Gulsah
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3938
• Causality between the Built Environment and Travel Behavior:A Structural Equations Model Applied to Southern California
  Abstract:

  The goal of this study is to explore the causality between the built environment and three transportation modes (private vehicles, mass transit, and non-motorized modes such as bicycling and walking) while accounting for socio-demographical characteristics to understand what factors may foster transit and non-motor use. Data from the National Household Transportation Survey 2009 (NHTS 2009) combined with Los Angeles County land use data were used to estimate a recursive Structural Equations Model, to examine the causality direction and to quantify the built environment effect and residential self-selection effect. Results suggest that urban planning strategies that promote high population and employment density, land use mix, high 4-way intersection density and road density as well as good transit service can either significantly encourage transit use, bicycling and walk or reduce VMT. However, the relatively small effect size of the built environment on travel behavior implies that achieving the above planning goals may cause considerable residential relocation, which contributes the major part of observed travel behavior changes.

  Authors: Wang, Ke
  Authors: Wang, Ke
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3731