2013 Session: 643

• Retail Fuel Price Stabilization and Revenue Generation of Dynamic Taxation Policy
  Abstract: Over the past few years, the U.S. Highway Trust Fund (HTF) experienced shortfalls as transportation investments outpaced revenue contributed to the trust fund. Alternative revenue options are necessary to fill the shortfalls from gas tax revenue and keep up with the growing need to finance infrastructure. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), through its Leadership Initiative for Transportation Solvency, recently released a report—Road to Recovery: Transforming America’s Transportation— that proposed a new revenue mechanism to fully fund a reformed transportation program. It recommends that Congress couple a per-barrel oil fee with a variable, countercyclical gas tax. This paper discusses the dynamic impacts of CEIP’s revenue policy on household travel behavior, revenue generation for the federal trust fund, energy consumption, equity, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission/air pollution at the national level from 2008 to 2010. Our analysis develops econometric models, such as multiple VMT regression model and discrete vehicle ownership model. The model assumes no pass-through of the upstream oil security fee, paid by the oil producer or importer, to the consumer. Model results show that the CEIP revenue proposal has the potential to fill the revenue shortfall regardless of the world oil price. During the recent historic study period of 2008-2010, the CEIP policy would collect up to more than double the federal revenue. At the same time, households would increase their vehicle miles travel by as much as 1.8% when oil prices peak, and reduce their vehicle miles travel by up to 8.6% when the crude oil price drops to the lowest point. Over the study period, the policy could counteract the potential of slight regressivity if a portion of the extra revenues raised were reinvested in transit and other auto alternatives or recycled back to lower-income households. We estimate that, without such investments or revenue recycling, lower-income households would experience a 0.45%-0.5% reduction in consumer surplus changes measured as a percentage of income, while higher-income households experience a 0.06% to 0.1% reduction. Finally, the CEIP policy is estimated to reduce air pollution and GHG emission by an average 4% to 4.35% for different pollutant types.
  Authors: Lu, Yijing; Zhang, Lei; Tsay, Shin-pei; Zhu, Yiwen
  Authors: Lu, Yijing; Zhang, Lei; Tsay, Shin-pei; Zhu, Yiwen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3158
• Aggregating VMT Within Predefined Geographic Zones by Cellular Assignment: Non-GPS-Based Approach to Mileage-Based Road Use Charging
  Abstract: Currently, most of the costs associated with operating and maintaining the roadway infrastructure are paid for by revenue collected from the motor fuel use tax. As fuel efficiency and the use of alternative fuel vehicles increases, alternatives to this funding method must be considered. One such alternative is to assess mileage based user fees (MBUF) based on the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) aggregated within the predetermined geographic areas, or travel zones, in which the VMT is generated. Most of the systems capable of this use Global Positioning Systems (GPS). However, GPS has issues with public perception, commonly associated with unwanted monitoring or tracking and is thus considered an invasion of privacy.The method proposed here utilizes cellular assignment, which is capable of determining a vehicle’s current travel zone, but is incapable of determining a vehicle’s precise location, thus better preserving user privacy. This is accomplished with a k-nearest neighbors (KNN) machine learning algorithm focused on the boundary of such travel zones.The primary experiment performed evaluates the accuracy of the algorithm at sample boundaries in and around the commercial business district of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The results show that with the training data available, the algorithm can correctly detect when a vehicle crosses a boundary to within ±2 city blocks, or roughly ±200 meters, and is thus capable of assigning the VMT to the appropriate zone. The findings imply that a cellular-based VMT system may successfully aggregate VMT by predetermined geographic travel zones without infringing on the drivers’ privacy.
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Donath, Max
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Donath, Max
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3170
• What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 3 of a National Survey
  Abstract: This paper summarizes the results of a national random-digit-dial public opinion poll that asked 1,519 respondents if they would support various tax options for raising federal transportation revenues, with a special focus on understanding support for increasing revenues for public transit. Eleven specific tax options tested were variations on raising the federal gas tax rate, creating a new mileage tax, and creating a new federal sales tax. Other questions probed various perceptions related to public transit, including knowledge and opinions about federal taxes to support transit. In addition, the survey collected data on standard socio-demographic factors, travel behavior (public transit usage, annual miles driven, and vehicle fuel efficiency), and attitudinal data about how respondents view the quality of their local transportation system and their priorities for government spending on transportation in their state. All of this information was used to assess support levels for the tax options among different population subgroups.
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha Weinstein; Nixon, Hilary; Murthy, Vinay
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha Weinstein; Nixon, Hilary; Murthy, Vinay
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-4941
• Emerging Strategies to Reduce Costs and Increase Public Acceptance of Mileage-Based User Fees
  Abstract: Inflation and improved fuel economy have undermined revenue from federal and state excise taxes on gasoline and diesel, making it challenging to maintain and expand the nation’s road network. With more stringent federal fuel economy standards and the emergence of alternative fuels threatening to accelerate this problem in future years, policymakers have begun to explore mileage-based user fees as a long-term replacement for fuel taxes. Unaffected by fuel type or fuel economy, mileage fees would provide more sustainable revenue, and the system could be structured to promote more efficient use of the roads, offer value-added motorist services, and collect travel data to support better network planning and operations. Mileage fees will likely cost more to administer than fuel taxes, however, and the concept faces acceptance challenges related to privacy protection and other concerns. These obstacles in turn have spurred great innovation. Drawing on recent studies, trials, and implementation efforts, we review a set of promising mileage-fee design and implementation strategies intended to reduce system costs and foster greater public acceptance.
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul; Ecola, Liisa; Wachs, Martin
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul; Ecola, Liisa; Wachs, Martin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-1381
• Emerging Strategies to Reduce Costs and Increase Public Acceptance of Mileage-Based User Fees
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-1381
• Retail Fuel Price Stabilization and Revenue Generation of Dynamic Taxation Policy
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3158
• Aggregating VMT Within Predefined Geographic Zones by Cellular Assignment: Non-GPS-Based Approach to Mileage-Based Road Use Charging
  Authors: Davis, Brian
  Authors: Davis, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3170
• What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 3 of a National Survey
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-4941