2013 Session: 723

• Economic Impact of Highway Investment at the Metropolitan Level: Empirical Analysis with Considerations for Induced Demand and Induced Supply
  Abstract: Public infrastructure investment, especially transportation investment is always seen as an effective way to boost economy nowadays. Studies have confirmed that positive relationship exists between transportation investment and economic development. However, the magnitude of this impact stays in doubt. Based on analysis at different geographical level and with different modeling methods, the magnitude of the effect varies from around 0.5 to 0. Most of the existing researches look at this problem from an economic perspective of view, and several issues that are critical for transportation problems are neglected. This paper tried to solve the economic problem from a transportation perspective of view, and mainly addressed three issues: using physical measurement of highway infrastructure instead of financial measurement to avoid bias caused by price variance, inclusion of qualitative indicators besides quantitative indicators to represent the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic development more comprehensively, endogeneity of travel demand and transportation investment are considered simultaneously during the analysis. The results confirmed the existence of induced demand and induced supply. Transportation investment has a positive impact on economic development. However, the effect is relatively small, with the short-run and long-run elasticity to be 0.018 and 0.028 respectively.
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2390
• Traffic Congestion’s Economic Impacts: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions
  Abstract: Congestion alleviation has long been a core planning objective in most transportation programs, but existing policy portfolios have been both costly and unsuccessful at alleviating congestion. Road gridlock is inconvenient, but it remains unclear under which conditions this indicator of active urban places also impedes other social objectives, among which this research focuses on the economy. Using panel data for 88 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), this study estimates congestion’s drag on employment growth (1993 to 2008) and gross metropolitan productivity growth per capita (2001 to 2008). Results indicate that higher congestion is not associated with slower productivity growth, but is associated with slower employment growth rates above congestion levels of 28 (shorter-term) or 32 annual hours of delay per commuter (longer-term). Nevertheless, evidence also suggests that natural adaptations to congestion through shifts in industry mix moderate congestion's expected drag - particularly over the longer term.
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2625
• Risk-Based Two-Stage Optimization Model for Optimal Highway Transportation Investment Decision Making
  Abstract: A new methodology is introduced for project selection which explicitly addresses issues of achieving maximized overall project benefits for a given budget level by controlling the associated total risk of expected project benefits at an acceptable lower bound level. The risk of project benefits is quantified by the covariance of total benefits that could be achieved from jointly implementing any two projects where each project maintains a range of possible benefits and corresponding probabilities of occurrences. The methodology contains two-stage optimizations. First, the Markowitz mean-variance model is employed to establish the acceptable lower bound limit of the total risk. Second, the conventionally accepted zero/one Knapsack model for project selection is augmented to incorporate the acceptable lower bound risk limit constraint established from the first stage optimization as one additional constraint. In this way, the overall benefits of projects selected for implementation could be maximized and the total risk of expected project benefits is minimized simultaneously. The proposed model is applied for a six-year state-wide Interstate highway programming and project selection. Comparisons are made in the consistency of projects selection results generated from the proposed model, the existing basic knapsack formulation, and current state highway programming practice.
  Authors: Zhou, Bei; Li, Zongzhi; Patel, Harshingar; Roshandeh, Arash M.
  Authors: Zhou, Bei; Li, Zongzhi; Patel, Harshingar; Roshandeh, Arash M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4044
• Transit service, physical agglomeration, and productivity in US metropolitan areas
  Abstract: Public transit improvements could cause more clustered and higher-density employment and enable urban growth, giving rise to agglomeration economies by making labor markets more accessible, increasing information exchange, and facilitating industrial specialization. Using data on almost all metropolitan areas in the United States, we explicitly traced the links between transit service and multiple physical measures of agglomeration, and hence to wages and gross metropolitan product per capita. Doubling transit service levels (using measures such as total seat capacity) is associated with large increases in central city employment density and consequent wage increases ranging from 1.1 to 1.8 percent, or between $7 million and $12 billion yearly per metropolitan area depending on the size of the workforce and the starting average wage. Firms and households likely receive unanticipated benefits from transit-induced agglomeration, and current benefit-cost evaluations may underestimate the benefits of improving transit service.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.; Noland, Robert B.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.; Noland, Robert B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4710
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Traffic Congestion's Economic Impacts: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2625
• Economic Impact of Highway Investment at the Metropolitan Level: Empirical Analysis with Considerations for Induced Demand and Induced Supply
  Authors: He, Xiang
  Authors: He, Xiang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2390
• Risk-Based Two-Stage Optimization Model for Optimal Highway Transportation Investment Decision Making
  Authors: Li, Zongzhi
  Authors: Li, Zongzhi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4044
• Transit Service, Physical Agglomeration, and Productivity in U.S. Metropolitan Areas
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4710