2013 Session: 731

• Evolution of Modal Captivity and Mode Choice Patterns for Commuting Trips: Longitudinal Analysis by Using Cross-Sectional Data Sets
  Abstract: This paper presents an econometric model that uses multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets to explain temporal evolutions of commuting mode choice preference structures. The model explicitly addresses latent captivity to different modes in addition to systematic elements of choice behaviour. The empirical model is a pooled model and is estimated by pooling three household travel survey datasets together that are collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a 10 year time period. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent captivity and the mode choice preference structure of commuting mode choice in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivity to different modes; in the transportation cost perceptions among different occupation groups, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. Furthermore, the pooled model developed in this paper demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is a more efficient method of capturing behavioural changes than using a cross-sectional model. Finally, the pooled model reveals that unexplained components of the modal captivities change more over time than the unexplained portions of the systematic utility functions. These findings highlight the necessity of considering latent captivity in commuting mode choice models for proper policy evaluations and forecasting.
  Authors: Weiss, Adam; Nurul Habib, Khandker M.
  Authors: Weiss, Adam; Nurul Habib, Khandker M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0220
• Investigating the Transferability of Individual Trip Rates: Decision Tree Approach
  Abstract: Transferring trip rates to areas without local survey data is a common practice which is typically performed in an ad-hoc fashion using household-based cross-classification tables. This paper applies a rule-based method called decision tree to develop individual-level trip generation models for eight different trip purposes as defined in the National Household Travel Survey data (NHTS 2009) in addition to their daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT). For each trip purpose, the models are then obtained by finding the best-fitted statistical distribution to each one of the final decision tree clusters while considering the correlation between different trip purposes. The rule-based models utilize several socio-demographic and land-use explanatory variables and are sensitive to changes in demographics. The performance of the models are then tested and validated in a transferability application to Phoenix Metropolitan Region. These models can be employed in a disaggregate microsimulation framework to generate trips with different purposes at individual or household level. They can also be used as an alternative solution for trip generation step of a conventional four step travel demand model.
  Authors: Fasihozaman Langerudi, Mehran; Hossein Rashidi, Taha; Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Authors: Fasihozaman Langerudi, Mehran; Hossein Rashidi, Taha; Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0218
• Will Privacy Concerns Limit the Ability of Smart Phone Technologies to Help Foster Collaborative School Travel?
  Abstract: The GPS functionality in modern Smartphones has the capability of pinpointing an individual’s position at any given time. As a result, a wide variety of apps are now available, providing the user with location-specific services, tailored to their location in space and time. In a transportation sense, such functionality has potential for providing users with visibility of current and future potential transport options. Understanding where an individual is, where they have been and might be in the immediate future, and knowledge of their typical schedules and historic trace patterns means that opportunistic, collaborative travel opportunities might be possible. A key issue with such a concept, however, is the extent to which individuals are prepared to share information on their whereabouts, schedules and travel habits with others. This concept is being explored as part of the 6th Sense Transport project and this paper looks specifically at using smartphone technology to visualise lift-sharing opportunities for the morning school run, and the associated privacy issues.Findings from a study of parents of primary-age children suggested that such a ‘real-time’ travel option visualisation system (RTOVS) must consider both who a user’s personal information is given to and the type of information given to be successfully adopted by users. This is because the benefits it offers must outweigh the privacy risks perceived by the users. Additionally, the survey results indicated that such a system will be particularly attractive to the educated, employed, high-income household with time-scheduling pressures.
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott; Cherrett, Tom; Waterson, Ben; Norgate, Sarah; Davies, Nigel; Speed, Chris; Dickinson, Janet
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott; Cherrett, Tom; Waterson, Ben; Norgate, Sarah; Davies, Nigel; Speed, Chris; Dickinson, Janet
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0525
• Time-of-Day Dynamics of Episodic Hedonic Value of Activities and Travel
  Abstract: In this paper a preliminary analysis of episodic reports of feelings are analyzed to explore the correlation with activity and travel characteristics, personal and household circumstances as well as other contextual factors that may influence feelings. Interestingly, a strong correlation is found between global indicators of satisfaction about life, health, and finances and discrepancies with marriage satisfaction. Very important, however, is the finding that different types of activities are significantly associated with many different scores of feelings with some of them varying by time of day in a way that is as expected (tired and pain) but not uniformly across indicators of subjective well being. Travel as a passenger is consistently a pleasant activity while traveling alone is associated with positive and negative feelings. In addition, interaction with social networks is an important correlate of episodic feelings. Strong correlation between person and household characteristics and episodic reports, on the other hand, is also found. Moreover, the role enacted within a household and companionship in activities are also important correlates of feelings. Where persons live (region of the US) and living arrangements (retiree communities and elderly housing) are also correlates of emotions.
  Authors: Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Authors: Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0521
• Cycling Habits and Other Psychological Variables Affecting Commuting by Bicycle in City of Madrid
  Abstract: In order to develop effective cycling policies it is important to know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Since psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of different cycling factors, and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured using attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits.Statistical differences in the variables are established according to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport/leisure, no use). This enabled us to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle, and to make recommendations for cycling policies. We identify two underlying structures (factors) among the attitudinal variables: “Direct Benefits” and “Long-term benefits”; and three other factors related to variables of difficulty: “Physical conditions”, “External facilities”, and “Individual capacities”. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on individuals’ decision to cycle to work/place of study is tested using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid (Spain), the decision to cycle to work/place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for non-commuting trips). Since bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña; Monzon, Andres; Lois, David
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña; Monzon, Andres; Lois, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0624
• Identifying Differences in Travel Time Budgets Between Elderly and Nonelderly Groups Using PSL Structural Equation Models: Case Study for Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea
  Abstract: To date aging is one of the most important issues in our society because of its significant socio-economic impacts. Corresponding concerns about the transportation needs of the elderly have led to a focus on the mobility and quality of life of the elderly and motivated various studies of senior mobility. In particular, the frequency of seniors' travel activities heavily relies on how far and easily they can travel. It is of great interest to explore travel behavior of the elderly. This study is to investigate the difference of travel behavior between the elderly and the non-elderly groups focusing on travel time budget (TTB), using 2006 household travel diary survey data in Seoul Metropolitan Area. We develop PLS-structural equation models to identify major variable to affect TTB of the two groups and then compare the differences between the models. The model results indicate that the significant variables to have effects on TTB are different between the two groups, and their degrees of effects of the same variables are also different with respect to personal and household characteristics.
  Authors: Kim, Taeho; Choo, Sangho; Shin, Yeacheol; You, Soyoung Iris
  Authors: Kim, Taeho; Choo, Sangho; Shin, Yeacheol; You, Soyoung Iris
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0643
• Empirical Evidence on Ratio of Means Problem and Estimation of Values of Time with Stated Preference Data
  Abstract: Values of time calculated as the ratios of time and cost parameters for groups of individuals do not correspond to the average of the individual values of time where these individual values are heterogeneous. This is known as the ratio of means problem. Empirical evidence on the implications of the ratio of means problem for value of time estimation is provided in the form of a meta-analysis of 31 sets of binary choice stated preference data for car drivers. A deterministic, cost-minimizing methodology is used to estimate individual values of time for each data set. Meta-regression analysis reveals systematic between-study variation related to the proportion of non-traders in the data. Comparison of the averages of the individual values of time with the corresponding values of time derived from binary logit models shows that the latter values tend to be significantly lower across a range of sensitivity tests, even under conservative assumptions. Awareness of the ratio of means problem and its potential consequences is important, particularly for meta-analyses or benchmarking exercises that include values of time derived using a variety of methodologies. It is recommended that in future, methodologies for estimating values of time that explicitly allow for heterogeneity should be preferred. For binary choice data with small numbers of attributes, the deterministic cost-minimizing methodology presented here is recommended as a useful complement to more computationally intensive techniques.
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0828
• Exploring the Impact of Unfamiliar Transit Travel on Attitudes and Behavior
  Abstract: Past research has found that unfamiliar travel on public transport can be an unpleasant experience while research in psychology has shown first impressions to be integral to all attitude development due to a phenomenon referred to as the ‘primacy effect’. However the ‘primacy effect’ concept has never been explored in the context or urban transit. This paper explores the experience of unfamiliar travel and its potential importance by comparing first trip experiences, which in this study context means first time using public transport to travel to a university campus, with perceptions of overall trip experiences through a university access survey. The results show that unfamiliar travel by transit tends to be a more negative experience than familiar trips. ‘Ease of navigation’ (wayfinding), ‘emotional state’, ‘ease of navigating transfer’, and ‘ease of ticketing’ were particularly negative aspects of first trips. Unfamiliar travel was found to be significantly correlated with overall ratings of transit suggesting a strong basis for the ‘primacy effect’ in public transport. Results also suggest that first trip experiences are significantly correlated with subsequent travel behaviour but only for ‘choice travellers’ i.e. those with access to a car and not for ‘captive’ transit users. This is a novel research area with important implications for travel behaviour and user attitude research. Suggestions for future research are relevance to transport practitioners are made.
  Authors: Schmitt, Lorelei; Currie, Graham; Delbosc, Alexa
  Authors: Schmitt, Lorelei; Currie, Graham; Delbosc, Alexa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0946
• Probability Distortion in Multiattribute Decisions: From Risk to Ambiguity
  Abstract: Transport users face complex decisions. Not only the consequences of their decisions are uncertain, but they generally involve several attributes, such as time and money. Time-money tradeoffs have been intensively studied in transport economics, and a growing attention is now paid to users' attitudes towards uncertainty related to transport decisions. The present paper makes two contributions to the transportation literature: one theoretical and the other experimental. First, we propose a fast and tractable method for measuring Prospect Theory parameters capturing attitudes towards probabilities (decision weighting function) and attitudes towards losses (loss aversion parameter). The elicitation method does not involve the value function and is particularly suitable in complex multi-attribute decisions were the shape of the value function is unknown.Second, we present the results of an experiment that uses the proposed elicitation method to measure, at individual level, probability distortion in decisions involving both time and money consequences in two contexts: risk (where probabilities are given) and ambiguity (where the probability distribution is unknown). An original experimental setup that exposes subjects to real gains and losses for money and time is built for the purpose. Inverse S-shaped probability weighting and loss aversion is observed for risk, and probability distortion is more pronounced in ambiguity.
  Authors: Kemel, Emmanuel; Paraschiv, Corina
  Authors: Kemel, Emmanuel; Paraschiv, Corina
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0978
• Accessibility to Urban Parks in Montreal from the Perspective of Children
  Abstract: Parks are elemental components of urban environments that provide environmental value and serve valuable social functions. In particular, urban parks provide spaces for physical activity and may help reduce the risk of obesity and other adverse health outcomes. In order to enjoy the beneficial opportunities for activities in parks, users must have reasonable access to these resources. A starting point for inquiries about park utilization and the potential benefits of urban green spaces is an assessment of their geographical accessibility. Of particular interest, in terms of potential users of parks, are children, whose geographical range is limited by their ability to traverse space using non-motorized modes of transportation, or by their dependence on adults for common forms of motorized mobility. The objective of this paper is to measure accessibility to urban parks from the perspective of children traveling by walking in the island of Montreal, Canada. We evaluate the relationship between the distribution of children population and conditions of accessibility to urban parks, in order to understand the potential for use and possible spatial disparities in the distribution of valuable environmental resources. Implementation of accessibility measures is supported by statistical analysis of trip length using Montreal’s 2008 Household Travel Surveys database. Estimates of trip length for a desired child profile, based on attributes such as age, gender, income class, family structure, as well as geographical location are used to calculate accessibility to urban parks. This research contributes to the assessment of the distribution of access to urban parks by children, and can inform planners and policy makers in order to improve the supply of public facilities (parks) from a transportation perspective.
  Authors: Reyes, Mario; Paez, Antonio; Morency, Catherine
  Authors: Reyes, Mario; Paez, Antonio; Morency, Catherine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1058
• Accuracy of Geo-imputation: An Approach to Capture Micro-Environment
  Abstract: The role of built environment in travel behavior has seen increased interest in strategic transportation planning. To capture relationships between travel behavior and the built environment, micro-environment variables representing infrastructure and land uses surrounding trip origins and destinations are being used as explanatory variables in travel demand models. Buffers of various sizes can be created around origins or destinations in order to capture the micro-environments. A key requirement is to know the exact latitude/longitude of the location. However, such information is commonly removed from public use data due to privacy concerns. To assess if synthetic geo-imputed residences can overcome the removal of exact location information, two North Carolina activity-based travel survey datasets (the Research Triangle survey, N=4,724 and Charlotte survey, N=3,310) were analyzed. The fundamental question is whether the geo-imputed micro-environmental measurements can be used to sufficiently accurately model travel behavior. Comparisons were conducted between actual residences, geo-imputed residences and residences assumed to be located at centroids of census blocks (as is current practice). The results indicate that: 1) census block centroid assignment results in statistically significant systematic errors when calculating the accessibility measures; 2) geo-imputation based on TAZ level can provide reasonably accurate accessibility measures in larger buffer sizes of 0.75 miles, but not in smaller buffers of 0.25 miles; 3) geo-imputation based on census block level provided reasonably accurate accessibility measures that were sufficiently accurate for specifying travel behavior models.
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Khattak, Asad J.; Chen, Juyin
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Khattak, Asad J.; Chen, Juyin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0700
• Enhancing External Cordon Travel Forecasting Methods for International Border Areas: Tour-Based Analysis of Mexican Residents’ Travel in San Diego County, California
  Abstract: In San Diego County, California, residents of Mexico make an estimated 350,000 trips daily and account for twenty-one percent of weekday boardings on the local light rail system. To adequately plan for this market, a border intercept survey and activity diary was used to develop a tour-based microsimulation model of travel made by Mexican residents within the region. Given an exogenous macroeconomic forecast of the total number of border crossings, the model predicts the volume of travelers using each port of entry, the locations of primary destinations within San Diego County, the frequency and locations of intermediate stops, the modes of travel across the border and between stateside locations, and the contributions from Mexican residents to highway and transit facility usage in the United States. The model’s design is compared and contrasted with typical external cordon methods and recently developed bi-national models. Empirical results show that the sensitivity of external cordon travel forecasting methods to characteristics of international border areas can be substantially enhanced with this approach.
  Authors: Hood, Jeffrey; Freedman, Joel; Sun, Wu; Ouyang, Ziyang; Samarin, Alex
  Authors: Hood, Jeffrey; Freedman, Joel; Sun, Wu; Ouyang, Ziyang; Samarin, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0892
• Innovative Online Research Tools Investigating Attitudes Toward Cars Among Young People
  Abstract: Young people are less car-reliant, a worldwide trend documented in US, Europe and Australian contexts. However little research explains how attitudes are shaping these trends. Popular hypotheses are the (i) changing social status of the car, (ii) growing role of electronic communications and (iii) growing environmental awareness, but no academic research has directly explored these issues.This paper uses innovative online research tools to explore these issues with young people. While the research was qualitative a range of common themes emerged. In general results support the hypothesis that cars have less social status in terms of prestige however they were still considered an important aspect of maturity and adulthood and of critical value for mobility Social status and the car may thus have changed from being a luxury to one of maturity. How this affects car travel is unclear.Results support the view that electronic communications are of growing importance although they are not replacing face to face interaction and unlikely to be reducing travel. Young people spoke passionately about the importance of time spent with friends and emphasised how transport could facilitate/ hinder this. It is difficult to see this as a strong basis for reduced car orientation.Not one person in the sample spontaneously mentioned that environmental concerns shaped their travel choices. Even when prompted these concerns were far removed from travel decisions.The paper concludes with a discussion of key findings, discusses the effectiveness of the methods used and outlines future areas for research in this field.
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1141
• Linking Elderly Transport Mobility and Subjective Well-being: Multivariate Latent Modeling Approach
  Abstract: It is widely accepted that mobility is critical for social integration in a complex urban society and is essential to the maintenance of life satisfaction and well-being. Subjective well-being has recently become a topic of interest within the transportation research community. In this paper we aim at understanding the fundamental linkages between subjective well-being or happiness and transport mobility/travel behavior of the elderly population. The research here is based on data from Disability and Use of Time (DUST) 2009, which specifically targets senior couples with an average age of 68 years. Using scores to a set of satisfaction questions about life, health, memory, finances, marriage, we estimate latent class clusters. This leads to four distinct clusters of respondents depending on the degree of happiness in each of the satisfaction questions. Using the membership to each cluster as a dependent variable, we estimate ordered probit and multinomial logistic regression models to study the relationship between clusters and individual characteristics including socio-demographics, activity patterns, time use and use of active modes (walking/bicycling). The results show that respondents who are engaging in activities out of home, socializing and enjoy better mobility, also report higher levels of subjective well-being leading to a better quality of life. The model findings also show that illness and pain are related to lower well-being and that quality of life in older age is correlated to mobility.
  Authors: Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Yoon, Seo Youn; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Authors: Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Yoon, Seo Youn; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1242
• Transit to Eternal Youth: Life-cycle and Generational Trends in Greater Montreal Public Transport Mode Share, Canada
  Abstract: Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing 20th century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin-destination surveys of the Greater Montreal region (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work trips are studied for each survey year. Transit use growth between 2003 and 2008 is high and relatively universal, possibly reflecting 2008 period conditions such as a rapid gasoline price spike; as such, 2008 data are viewed with caution. Nevertheless, a general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies.
  Authors: Grimsrud, Michael A.; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Authors: Grimsrud, Michael A.; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1438
• A Meta-Analysis of the Value of Travel Time Savings Incorporating GDP Per Capita: Evidence from Japanese Passenger Travels
  Abstract: This paper conducts a meta-analysis of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) in Japan. The meta-analysis is based on 261 VTTS estimated from 68 peer-reviewed papers on travel behavior in Japan between 1979 and 2003. First, the basic characteristics of VTTS are analyzed on the basis of purpose of travel, weekday or weekend travel, type of data, urban or inter-urban travel, and attributes of travel. Regression analyses are then conducted on all VTTS estimates, together with those of urban travel and inter-urban travel. Our analysis reveals that the VTTS estimated using the stated preference data are lower than those estimated with revealed preference data: (1) the VTTS of business travel is higher than that of home-to-school, private, and leisure travel and (2) the VTTS of access/egress time, wait time, and transfer time are higher than that of in-vehicle time. We also show that the VTTS of inter-urban travel is higher than that of urban travel. In addition, the VTTS elasticity of GDP per capita is estimated to be 0.55.
  Authors: Kato, Hironori; Tanishita, Masayoshi; Abe, Ryosuke
  Authors: Kato, Hironori; Tanishita, Masayoshi; Abe, Ryosuke
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1502
• Hysteresis and Urban Rail
  Abstract: Problem + research strategy: Cities are endowed with and accumulate natural and constructed assets based on their unique histories, which in turn define the choice set of the present. But, common practice is that current behavior can be described without reference to past circumstances. This work departs from that practice by examining the effects of historical urban rail on current residential location and travel behavior, from the era of horsecars and streetcars to the present in Boston. It uses aggregate spatial data, with controls for possible endogeneity over these long time frames to explore the hysteretical effects of past access to rail—the extent to which the urban system retains the impacts of rail even when it no longer exists. Findings: Current density and travel behavior are measurably influenced by past access to rail. These findings are robust to a series of alternate causal, functional, and spatial specifications. The built environment and demographic patterns are found to be the strongest mechanisms for these persistent effects. Past access to rail has shaped the city, and that shape has, in turn, affected travel behavior. For density and auto ownership there is an additional measurable effect of past access unexplained by the built environment or demographic patterns. This legacy is plausibly explained by cultural effects—mnemonics—due to personal history or behavioral norms. Takeaway for practice: This research shows that past rail access continues to reverberate in current residential location and travel behavior. These findings of quasi-irreversability add to an understanding of the long-term impacts of rail infrastructure, and imply a need to consider how policy decisions will influence the city's future choice set.
  Authors: Block-Schachter, David; Zhao, Jinhua
  Authors: Block-Schachter, David; Zhao, Jinhua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1575
• Urban Setting and Transportation Modes Repositories: Multilevel Mixture Model Specification
  Abstract: The overwhelming number of studies on the relationship between travel and the urban environment have typically examined whether density, mixed land use and other morphological and functional characteristics of neighbourhoods induce individuals to use more environmentally friendly modes of transportation and travel less distance. To contribute to this already substantial accumulation of knowledge, this study will focus on the relationship between urban environment and the possession of different means of transportation, motivated by the consideration that the acquisition of transportation modes precedes their actual use in the context of daily activity-travel patterns. The analysis is based on the 2009 Dutch National Travel Survey, involving 65535 respondents, who reported their possession of different transportation modes. First, descriptive analyses are performed, followed by the estimation of best subset binary probit models and a multi-level mixture model. Congruent with previous findings about the use of transportation modes, both the results of the descriptive and the formal modelling analyses strongly indicate the existence of a weak interaction between urban density and the (non-) possession of in particular the car. However, results at the same time suggest the lack of any strong relationship between urban setting and transportation modes repositories. Implications of these research findings are discussed.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1940
• Accommodating Underlying Proenvironmental Attitudes in a Rail Travel Context: Application of a Latent Variable Latent Class Specification
  Abstract: Using data from a stated preference survey conducted in the United Kingdom, we show how the willingness to reduce reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accept longer travel time varies strongly as a function of underlying attitudes towards the environment. We specify a latent class structure that allocates respondents to two classes with substantially different valuations of greenhouse gas emissions, and show how the allocation of a given respondent to either class is a function of underlying attitudes that also drive the answers to a number of attitudinal questions. We also show how these underlying attitudes are a function of a number of socio-demographic characteristics, with female respondents, older respondents, and respondents with a university degree having a stronger pro-environmental attitude, with the opposite applying to respondents with regular car access.
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Shires, Jeremy; Jopson, Ann
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Shires, Jeremy; Jopson, Ann
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2241
• Effect of Driving Restrictions on Travel Behavior in Beijing
  Abstract: This article measures the effect of Beijing’s driving restrictions on individual travel behavior using 2010 Beijing Household Travel Survey data. Driving restrictions decrease the auto use, however, with the effect lower than expectation. Evidence from trip frequency indicates that the adjustment in travel behaviors varies across individuals: for example, female, high-income drivers who live in the south of the Beijing central city tend to decrease auto use more facing restrictions. Drivers also make inter-temporal adjustments in trip making, especially within a 3-day time window. We also provide evidence of the uneven restrictions, that is, high traffic flow in the 4&9 restricted days, as well as how non-drivers decrease their trip frequency in such days.
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen; Deakin, Elizabeth; Long, Ying
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen; Deakin, Elizabeth; Long, Ying
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2352
• Effects of Household Structure and Accessibility on Travel
  Abstract: The concept of accessibility has been widely used in the transportation field, commonly to evaluate transportation planning options. The fundamental hypothesis of those accessibility-related studies could be “greater accessibility leads to more travel”. However, several studies showed inconsistent results with the common hypothesis, that is, accessibility is independent of trip/tour frequency. In addition, empirical aggregate urban modeling applications commonly produce either non-significant or negative (wrong sign) relationships between accessibility and trip/tour frequency. For this reason, many practitioners rarely incorporate a measure of accessibility into trip/tour generation models for induced demand consideration. In this context, this study examined the effect of accessibility in urban and suburban residence on the maintenance and discretionary activity tour frequencies of the elderly and the non-elderly using household travel survey data collected in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea. The major finding of this study is that higher density of land use and better quality of transportation service do not always lead to more tours due to the presence of intra-household interactions, trip chaining, and different travel needs by activity type. This finding implies that accessibility-related studies should not unquestioningly accept the common hypothesis when they apply accessibility measures to evaluate their transportation planning options or incorporate them into their trip/tour generation models.
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1873
• Effects of Household Structure on Grocery Shopping Behavior of Elderly in South Korea
  Abstract: Traditionally, Koreans in their old age tend to reside with adult children and receive physical and psychological support from them. This feature may have positive effects on the quality of life for the elderly. However, recent official statistics show Korea¡¯s soaring elderly households residing without adult children, indicating a need to examine the effects of household structure on the elderly. In this context, first, this study explored the effects of household structure on elderly grocery shopping behavior with a focus on grocery shopping frequency, accompanying behavior, and enjoyment with grocery shopping activities by estimating full structural equation models. In addition, aggregate urban modeling applications on the relationship between accessibility and trip/tour frequency commonly produce either non-significant or negative associations which violate the basic economic theory, that is, lower travel cost leads to more travel. We conjectured that individuals¡¯ subjective satisfaction with activities could lead to such unreasonable results. Therefore, the other objective of this study is to identify the possible causes to lead the unreasonable relationship between accessibility and trip/tour frequency. First of all, a hypothesized single population model was statistically tested by estimating a full structural equation model. Second, the entire survey dataset was segmented into four comparison groups by four dichotomous segmentation variables. The results showed that co-residence with adult children and better family relationship significantly alleviate the difficulties of the elderly such as elderly physical mobility and residential accessibility to grocery shopping places, consequently improving grocery shopping enjoyment of the elderly and the quality of life.
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2406
• Uncertainty in Predicted Sequences of Activity-Travel Episodes: Measurement and Analysis
  Abstract: Application of uncertainty analysis requires appropriate statistics that capture the degree of uncertainty in model forecasts. Prediction of activity-based models of travel demand relates to (i) aggregate performance indicators; (ii) origin-destination tables and corresponding traffic flows, (iii) individual space-time trajectories and (iv) the sequence of activities that are conducted during the day. Realising that measures aiming at quantifying uncertainty in such multi-dimensional activity-travel sequence patterns have not been developed in transportation research, the aim of this paper is to propose an approach to measure uncertainty in predicted activity-travel sequences. The proposed method involves generating predicted activity-travel patterns for different model runs and quantifying the uncertainty in the sequential information embedded in these patterns by calculating the average efforts required to align these multi-dimensional sequences for all possible pairs of predicted sequences. Because computational costs may become prohibitive in large-scale applications, several heuristic approaches are suggested and examined. Results indicate that (i) the suggested methods can represent uncertainty in predicted activity-travel sequences very well, (ii) that the suggested heuristics tend to approximate the calculated uncertainty based on all possible sequences, and (iii) that the heuristics however do not necessarily produce asymptotically more accurate results. Implications of these findings are discussed to complete the paper.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2511
• Stated Adaptation Experiment for Individuals’ Time and Money Budget Allocation Decisions on Out-of-Home Leisure Activities
  Abstract: In this paper, we report the first findings of a web-based stated adaptation experiment for time and money budget allocation of individuals on their out-of-home leisure activities. This experiment is based on a model that is developed by the authors. It includes the data of 529 individuals which is a representative sample of the Dutch population. In the experiment, individuals are asked to adjust their time and money allocations including travel components in response to hypothetical scenarios such as a decrease in their income and increase in their working hours. Moreover, respondents are asked to report how they would make the changes in their budget allocation which gives a behavioral insight to the analysis. The data will allow the proposed models to be estimated. The paper focuses on the description of the new data collection instrument and application in a survey, and reports descriptive statistics of the stated-adaptation data obtained.
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2608
• Functionings Enhanced by Social Networks in Elder’s Activity Participations: The Capability Approach
  Abstract: Social networks can generate desires to perform activities with others (activity opportunities), while it can also provide mobility especially for those who cannot use a car (mobility support). In this sense, at least two different functionings could be enhanced by social networks, but these two aspects have not been well distinguished in activity-travel behavior analysis. This study first attempts to develop a conceptual framework based on Senfs Capability Approach to shed light on the multiple roles of social networks in elderfs activity-travel decisions. We then develop a simple operational method by utilizing logsum measures in order to empirically identify the roles of social networks and these impacts on activity-travel behavior. The empirical analysis is conducted focusing on elderfs social, shopping and leisure activity participations in a typical newtown in Hiroshima, Japan. The results show that family members may only contribute to the increase in mobility support, while friends may contribute to both social network roles in the case study area. We also find that activity opportunities have positive impacts on social and shopping activity participations, but less significant impacts on leisure activities.
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Kuwano, Masashi; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Kuwano, Masashi; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3112
• Uncovering Influence of Commuters' Perception on Reliability Ratio
  Abstract: The dominant method for measuring values of travel time savings (VOT), and values of travel time reliability (VOR) is discrete choice modeling. Generally, the data sources for these models are: stated choice experiments, and revealed preference observations. There are few studies using revealed preference data. These studies have only used travel times measured by devices such as loop detectors, and thus the perception error of travelers has been largely ignored. In this study, the influence of commuters' perception error is investigated on data collected of commuters recruited from previous research \citep{Carrion2012B, Zhu2010}. The subjects' self-reported travel times from surveys, and the subjects' travel times measured by GPS devices were collected. The results indicate that the subjects reliability ratio is greater than 1 in the models with self-reported travel times. In contrast, subjects reliability ratio is smaller than 1 in the models with travel times as measured by GPS devices.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3248
• Statistical and Analytical Modeling of Children’s Travel Behavior:Some Evidence on the Cultural Effects
  Abstract: Children lifestyle including their travel and activity pattern is highly influenced by their household characteristics. Household socioeconomic characteristics determine most aspects of children's life including their school location, and school travel mode choice. A statistical analysis and discrete choice modeling approach is conducted in this paper to investigate the primary school children travel behavior. This study focused on representative trip chain, mode choice, school location and escort status as fundamental elements in children’s trips pattern. Contingency analysis is used to check for the correlation among explanatory variables such as household socioeconomics, gender and city with intended travel behavioral aspects. Statistical analysis revealed that gender and family car ownership are two of the most efficacious parameters. A two stage discrete choice model is used for modeling decision process among children and their parents in their behavior. This study shows that parent’s attitude about their children is highly affected by child’s gender and this is due to some cultural and religious believers of Iranian household.
  Authors: Arman, Mohammad Ali; Kalantari, Navid
  Authors: Arman, Mohammad Ali; Kalantari, Navid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3669
• Allowing for Nonadditively Separable and Flexible Utility Forms in Multiple Discrete-Continuous Models
  Abstract: Many consumer choice situations are characterized by the simultaneous demand for multiple alternatives that are imperfect substitutes for one another, along with a continuous quantity dimension for each chosen alternative. To model such multiple discrete-continuous choices, most multiple discrete-continuous models in the literature use an additively-separable utility function, with the assumption that the marginal utility of one good is independent of the consumption of another good. In this paper, we develop model formulations for multiple discrete-continuous choices that allow a non-additive utility structure, and accommodate rich substitution structures and complementarity effects in the consumption patterns. Specifically, three different non-additive utility formulations are proposed based on alternative specifications and interpretations of stochasticity: (1) The deterministic utility random maximization (DU-RM) formulation, which considers stochasticity due to the random mistakes consumers make during utility maximization; (2) The random utility deterministic maximization (RU-DM) formulation, which considers stochasticity due to the analyst’s errors in characterizing the consumer’s utility function; and (3) The random utility random maximization (RU-RM) formulation, which considers both analyst’s errors and consumer’s mistakes within a unified framework. When applied to the consumer expenditure survey data in the United States, the proposed DU-RM and RD-DM non-additively separable utility formulations perform better than the additively separable counterparts, and suggest the presence of substitution and complementarity patterns in consumption.
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4076
• Assessment of the Degree of Willingness to Change from Motorized Travel Modes to Walking or Cycling
  Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the degree of willingness to change from motorized travel modes to walking or cycling. Information was collected in a novel data collection effort based on multiple survey methods. Firstly, respondents traveling by car or transit were asked about their willingness to change to walking or cycling. Secondly, those willing to change participated in a stated tolerance survey to identify the improvement measures required to change. Lastly, a hypothetical scenario was presented to respondents in which previously selected improvement measures were implemented and they were supposed to be cycling or walking. In this last scenario, gradual reductions in travel costs of their usual motorized travel mode were presented until they gave up cycling or walking. Those decided to keep on walking or cycling in this scenario are assumed to have a strong willingness to change, in contrast with those who decided to come back to their usual motorized travel mode. The degree of willingness to change estimated using this methodology would reduce uncertainty about the difference between stated willingness to change and real shifts from car or ransit to non-motorized transportation modes.Results from a statistical analysis carried out using Heckman’s sample selection model allow us to identify demographic, socioeconomic and travel-related factors that influence the degree of willingness to change. Differences and similarities between the propensity to walk and cycle and between individuals with strong and weak willingness to change are underlined. Findings suggest that work/school related journeys are less associated to walking than non-commuting journeys, but they are more related to cycling. Results provided by the analysis of the degree of willingness reveal that car users present a stronger willingness to change to walking or cycling compared to transit users. In addition, older respondents show a stronger willingness to switch to walking or cycling than younger respondents.
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila; Ruiz, Tomás
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila; Ruiz, Tomás
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4088
• Nested Tourist Time Use and Expenditure Behavior Model with Multidestination Visit Based on Pair Copula
  Abstract: Focusing on tourist behavior, this paper develops a nested time use and expenditure behavior model in the context of multi-destination visit, where a tourist visits one or more destinations. In this case, tourists' decisions include, 1) whether to visit a destination or not (destination visit decision), and in case of visiting a destination, 2) how long to stay there (activity time decision), 3) whether to spend any money there (expenditure decision), and in case of spending any money, 4) how much of money to spend there (expenditure level decision). To accommodate the above decision-making mechanism with two discrete and two continuous dependent variables, a nested Tobit modeling technique is first integrated with a multi-linear utility-maximizing time use and expenditure behavior model, and then a pair copula is applied to represent the correlated error structure of the above four dependent variables. Pair copula is a function that can combine different bivariate copulas to represent a joint multivariate distribution, where variables are sequentially incorporated into conditioning sets with a nested tree structure. As a case study, the developed model is estimated by comparing three types of canonical vine copulas: Gaussian, FGM and Frank copulas. First, the model effectiveness is confirmed by using a questionnaire data collected in the Tottori Prefecture of Japan in 2007. Second, it is revealed that the Frank canonical vine pair copula model is superior to other models. Third, it is found that the value of activity time varies considerably with touristsf origins. Finally, influential factors to time use and expenditure behavior are examined.
  Authors: Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3513
• Within-Individual Variation in Preferences: Equity Effects of Congestion Charges
  Abstract: It is widely recognized that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve congestion problems in urban areas. Still, congestion pricing has been implemented in few places possibly because of the notion that it has negative equity effects. But, earlier studies on equity effects of road pricing have disregarded the possibility that preferences might vary between different trips for the same individual. The purpose of this research is to study how the value of time and preferences for different modes varies within individuals as compared to the variation between individuals. Using a a six weeks period revelead preference panel data and the stated preference for a mode choice context, both collected in Switzerland, a mixed revealed/stated preference logit mode choice model was estimated and used to simulate how the value of travel time savings (VTTS) varies across trips within and between individuals over the six weeks period. We found that the variation in VTTS dependent on income is smaller than the variation within individuals, and the variation in loss per trip due to a simple and hypothetical congestion charging scheme (before recycling of the money) is about twice as high if not taking into account of the intra-individual variation of VTTS. However, the fact that some individuals make more trips than others seems to have a larger effect on the redistribution of losses. To quantify the role of intra-individual variation VTTS is important and might brush aside or reaffirm the conception that congestion charges have negative equity effects.
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Bierlaire, Michel
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Bierlaire, Michel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3749
• Simultaneous Analysis of Global Decisions in Activity-TravelScheduling Process
  Abstract: This paper presents a global characterization of activity-travel scheduling decisions using a new dataset recently collected in Valencia (Spain). As an innovative approach, bivariate probit sample selection models are used to take into account potential self-selectivity bias in the decision process. Model 1 studies decisions to realize or not activity-travel episodes considering if they have been included in the pre-planned agenda. Model 2 analyzes decisions to perform activity-travel episodes as they were planned or to modify one or more of their attributes prior to execution, considering if they have been decided to be realized previously. Random parameters are used in both models to accommodate heterogeneity effects.Location, timing and duration of activity-travel episodes are important explanatory variables in the two scheduling process studied. Few demographic and socioeconomic variables affect the decision processes. Significant correlations between decisions included in both models are found. Policy implications of the analysis results are highlighted.
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo; Ruiz, Tomás
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo; Ruiz, Tomás
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4194
• Development of Indicator to Assess Spatial Fit of Discrete Choice Models
  Abstract: Discrete choice models are increasingly implemented using geographical data. When this is the case, it may not be sufficient to project market shares accurately, but also to correctly locate them in space. Analysts might then be interested in assessing the results of a model’s fit relative to the spatial distribution of the observed responses. While canonical approaches exist for the exploratory spatial analysis of continuous variables, similar tools have not been widely implemented for discrete choice models, where the variable of interest is qualitative. For this reason, despite recent progress with spatial models for discrete outcomes, there is still not a simple and intuitive tool to assess the quality of the spatial fit of a discrete choice model. The objective of this paper is to introduce a new indicator of spatial fit that can be applied to the results of discrete choice models. Use of the indicator is demonstrated by means of a case study of vehicle ownership in Montreal, Canada.
  Authors: Paez, Antonio; Lopez, Fernando; Ruiz, Manuel; Morency, Catherine
  Authors: Paez, Antonio; Lopez, Fernando; Ruiz, Manuel; Morency, Catherine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4290
• Exploration of Data-Pooling Techniques: Modeling Activity Participation and Household Technology Holdings
  Abstract: As data collection costs escalate and travel behaviour models become more data hungry, it becomes increasingly important to exploit existing sources of data to the greatest extent possible. Data fusion as a means of combining disparate sources of data, collected from entirely unconnected surveys, is therefore an avenue worth exploring. In this paper, we explore the possibility of pooling data from the UK National Travel Survey (NTS) and the UK Time Use Survey (TUS) to model the impacts of household technology holdings on leisure activity participation. We test three different data pooling techniques: ad-hoc cluster sampling, Rubin’s multiple imputation, and a Bayesian conditional probability model. The Bayesian conditional probability model uses the TUS data to develop a posterior distribution of the technology holdings and then integrates the leisure type model estimated on the NTS data over this posterior distribution. The results reiterate the fact that this is the most behavioural of the three data pooling techniques, and also support our hypothesis that household technology holdings are correlated with OH leisure activity patterns.
  Authors: Sivakumar, Aruna; Polak, John W.
  Authors: Sivakumar, Aruna; Polak, John W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3846
• Modeling Connection Between Activity-Travel Patterns and Subjective Well-being
  Abstract: Transportation forecasting models are invariably used to help inform policy and investment decisions. Although the logsum terms in choice model components have often been used to measure consumer surplus or welfare, such terms do not fully capture the welfare, satisfaction, and well-being that people derive from their activity-travel patterns. As a result, transportation models are currently unable to adequately reflect the impacts of policy and investment decisions on people’s well-being and overall quality of life. This paper presents a multivariate ordered response probit model that is able to capture the influence of activity-travel characteristics on subjective well-being while accounting for unobserved individual traits and attitudes that predispose people when it comes to their emotional feelings. The model, estimated on the well-being module of the 2010 American Time Use Survey data set, shows that activity-travel characteristics, besides individual and household demographics, are important determinants of feelings of well-being that people derive from their activity episodes. It is found that activity duration, activity start time, and child accompaniment significantly impact feelings of well-being for different activities. Differences were found in feelings of well-being depending on whether activities were pursued in-home or out-of-home. Error correlations were significant, suggesting that the multivariate ordered probit modeling approach is appropriate when analyzing measures of well-being across activity categories. By integrating the well-being model presented in this paper with activity-based microsimulation models of travel demand, measures of well-being for different demographic segments may be estimated and the impacts of alternative policy and investment decisions on quality of life can be better assessed.
  Authors: Archer, Melissa; Paleti, Rajesh; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Authors: Archer, Melissa; Paleti, Rajesh; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3883
• Bayesian Analysis of Personal Daily Activity Patterns
  Abstract: In this article, we consider data for residents of Orange and San Diego counties in California to study travel behavior in five activity categories – work, maintenance, recreational and social, personal, and pick-up or drop-off. We build and estimate a joint discrete choice model for the five categories that captures the inter-dependence among activities and accounts for possible correlations between number of participations in different activities. Because the likelihood function for the model is analytically intractable, we discuss estimation methods that circumvent the likelihood intractability by employing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and data augmentation. The methodology is computationally efficient, simple to implement in practice, and permits straightforward evaluation of covariate effects and comparison of competing models. We consider several alternative model specifications, compare them by their marginal likelihoods and posterior odds ratios and evaluate the covariate effects of key variables such as change in household structure, size, income level, or employment status, to determine their impact on the probability and extent of participation in different activity types. Our findings confirm the importance of household structure for activity pattern and allow us to isolate interesting differences in the behavior of household members. These results help further our understanding of household travel behavior and provide a foundation that can be used in forecasting and quantifying various policy effects.
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh; Jeliazkov, Ivan
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh; Jeliazkov, Ivan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4038
• Experimental Design of Personalized Travel Plan to Encourage Behavioral Change
  Abstract: This paper describes the experimental design of a voluntary travel behavior change program implemented in Cagliari, Italy. The objective of the work is to contribute to understand the fundamentals of travel behavioral process by identifying the factors underlying behavioral change. More specifically, the PTP program proposed in this work involved 109 participants, from February 2011 to June 2012, in two steps: a first one-week activity-travel data collection to observe current behaviors and a second one-week activity-travel data collection to monitor behavior, after the provision of personalized travel plans. The program has been evaluated observing the behavioral change during the second week of the program (monitoring week) and three months after the end of the program. Further, the factors underlying behavioral change have been analyzed comparing the quantitative feedback provided to participants showing a behavioral change vs. participants who did not change. Results seem to have important policy implications. Indeed, they indicate that providing car users with detailed feedback about current behavior and existing alternatives have a general positive effect on behavioral change.
  Authors: Meloni, Italo; Sanjust, Benedetta; Spissu, Erika; Porcu, Silvio
  Authors: Meloni, Italo; Sanjust, Benedetta; Spissu, Erika; Porcu, Silvio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4371
• A Needs-Based Stated-Response Method to Predict Impacts of New Forms of Travel
  Abstract: This paper discusses a method to assess how people adjust their activity/travel patterns in response to changes in mobility options. Needs-based methods are employed in which multiple activity and travel episodes undertaken in service of a broader personal objective are analyzed as a pattern of linked behavior. The empirical study investigated how people would adjust their grocery shopping patterns if offered a one-way-usage carsharing service. A stated-choice/stated-adaptation survey instrument is proposed.Substantive findings relating to the impacts of one-way carsharing are discussed, as are the broader implications of viewing personal mobility behavior in this way.
  Authors: Le Vine, Scott; Adamou, Orestes; Polak, John W.
  Authors: Le Vine, Scott; Adamou, Orestes; Polak, John W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4461
• Individual Mobility Attributes and Their Impact on Modality Style: Comparison Across Three Population Sectors in Jerusalem, Israel
  Abstract: Mobility attributes such as driver license, car ownership, reserved parking at work, and transit pass have a very strong impact on travel choices, in particular, mode choice. Mobility attributes are not acquired for a particular trip but are rather driven by the entire set of individual travel needs (commuting being the most basic of them). Some mobility attributes, for example car ownership and transit pass, are substitutable and some other ones, for example, car ownership and reserved parking at work, are complementary. For this reason, different mobility attributes have to be analyzed and modeled jointly.The purpose of the current research is to analyze a wide set of mobility attributes and incorporate them in an operational ABM as a set of mid-term choices. The approach suggested in this paper, is based on an iterative application of three interlinked choice sub-models: 1) joint choice of person driver license, usual driver role (priority in using one of the household cars), car type choice, reserved or reimbursed parking at work, and transit pass, 2) household car ownership choice by type, and 3) intra-household car allocation by type. Model estimation results confirmed strong cross-attribute effects as well as revealed many impacts of person, household, and travel accessibility variables. In particular, historical and cultural differences between 3 population sectors in Jerusalem – Secular Jewish, Orthodox Jewish, and Arab, manifested themselves very strongly. Application of these models for future scenarios and incorporation of dynamic trends is discussed.
  Authors: Vovsha, Peter; Vyas, Gaurav; Givon, Danny; Birotker, Yehoshua
  Authors: Vovsha, Peter; Vyas, Gaurav; Givon, Danny; Birotker, Yehoshua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4325
• Are Transit Trips Symmetrical in Time and Space? Evidence from Twin Cities, Minnesota
  Abstract: In this study we exploit electronic fare collection data to examine the symmetry of boardings and alightings along a transit route. The symmetry of boardings and alightings is arguably the most important concept in estimating travel distance such as average trip lengths and passenger miles from entry-only fare collection system data. We show how such data can be used to examine the symmetry of boardings and alightings through travel patterns in spatial and temporal dimensions. A novel method for aggregating stops, especially for the nearest stops(s) in the opposite direction, is used to compare boardings in one direction with alightings in the opposite direction. Spatially, the method allows us to examine the characteristics of boardings and alightings in a spatial dimension. Temporally, we examine whether a specific and symmetric passenger flow is observed between any specific time periods (e.g., between AM and PM peaks). A case study of the Minneapolis-St. Paul region is performed using automatically collected data from Metro Transit.
  Authors: Lee, Sanggu; Hickman, Mark D.
  Authors: Lee, Sanggu; Hickman, Mark D.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4985
• Modeling Children’s Independent Walk and Bike Travel to Parks and School
  Abstract: It is commonly acknowledged that children today are traveling less often by active modes and less often without adult supervision. Potential negative effects of these joint trends may include, for children, a decrease in overall physical activity levels and the loss of developmental benefits from independently navigating their neighborhood environment, and, for society as a whole, an increase in vehicle miles traveled and associated negative externalities. This research models the propensity of children aged 6-17 to walk or bike to parks and school without an adult. A rich set of potential correlates was available from linked household, parent, and child survey questionnaires completed by 330 families in Portland, Oregon.Binomial logit models were specified for each of four reported independent travel behaviors: walk and bike to parks at least once per month, and walk and bike to school at least once per month. Proximity, household socio-demographics, rules, norms, attitudes, children’s related travel behavior and adults’ past experience were significantly correlated with children’s independent active travel. As measured, land-use and built environment factors appeared subordinate to attitudes and rules. Considerable differences were observed in the models by both mode and destination. Finally, additional models were estimated to better understand correlates of household rules. Taken together, the results underscore the importance of treating walk and bike travel separately, studying non-school trips, and incorporating variables at child, adult, household, and neighborhood level.
  Authors: Broach, Joseph; Dill, Jennifer
  Authors: Broach, Joseph; Dill, Jennifer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-5327
• Activity Space Geometry and Its Effect on Mode Choice
  Abstract: Understanding and quantifying the effect of built environment variables on travel demand is a topic for which there exists a large body of work. A relatively new area of interest in the urban planning and travel behavior literature however is the analysis and interpretation of activity spaces. Researchers have associated large activity spaces with environmentally detrimental outcomes as a result of its intuitive correlation with large distances travelled by automobile, but while concluding that small or large activity spaces are not inherently bad from an accessibility or social equity perspective, no rigorous attempt has yet been made to define what types of activity space, be they large in area, concentrated along a corridor or otherwise, lead to higher use of either active modes or transit. Using data from 3 OD surveys in Montreal and two for Québec city, Canada, the following article explores the relationship between area and compactness in activity spaces and following this, describes a new measure for predicting likelihood of transit use. While the effort remains exploratory, the measure is validated using logistic regression.
  Authors: Harding, Christopher; Patterson, Zachary Rupert; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Authors: Harding, Christopher; Patterson, Zachary Rupert; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-5340
• Evolution of Modal Captivity and Mode Choice Patterns for Commuting Trips: Longitudinal Analysis by Using Cross-Sectional Data Sets
  Authors: Nurul Habib, Khandker
  Authors: Nurul Habib, Khandker
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0220
• Innovative Online Research Tools Investigating Attitudes Toward Cars Among Young People
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1141
• Urban Setting and Transportation Modes Repositories: Multilevel Mixture Model Specification
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1940
• Effect of Driving Restrictions on Travel Behavior in Beijing
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2352
• Functionings Enhanced by Social Networks in Elder's Activity Participations: The Capability Approach
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3112
• Modeling Connection Between Activity-Travel Patterns and Subjective Well-being
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3883
• Bayesian Analysis of Personal Daily Activity Patterns
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4038
• Experimental Design of Personalized Travel Plan to Encourage Behavioral Change
  Authors: Sanjust di Teulada, Benedetta
  Authors: Sanjust di Teulada, Benedetta
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4371
• A Needs-Based Stated-Response Method to Predict Impacts of New Forms of Travel
  Authors: Le Vine, Scott
  Authors: Le Vine, Scott
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4461
• Investigating the Transferability of Individual Trip Rates: Decision Tree Approach
  Authors: Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Authors: Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0218
• Will Privacy Concerns Limit the Ability of Smart Phone Technologies to Help Foster Collaborative School Travel?
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0525
• Cycling Habits and Other Psychological Variables Affecting Commuting by Bicycle in City of Madrid
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0624
• Identifying Differences in Travel Time Budgets Between Elderly and Nonelderly Groups Using PSL Structural Equation Models: Case Study for Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea
  Authors: You, Soyoung
  Authors: You, Soyoung
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0643
• Accuracy of Geo-imputation: An Approach to Capture Micro-Environment
  Authors: Khattak, Asad
  Authors: Khattak, Asad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0700
• Empirical Evidence on Ratio of Means Problem and Estimation of Values of Time with Stated Preference Data
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0828
• Exploring the Impact of Unfamiliar Transit Travel on Attitudes and Behavior
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0946
• Accommodating Underlying Proenvironmental Attitudes in a Rail Travel Context: Application of a Latent Variable Latent Class Specification
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Authors: Hess, Stephane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2241
• Stated Adaptation Experiment for Individuals' Time and Money Budget Allocation Decisions on Out-of-Home Leisure Activities
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2608
• Modeling Children's Independent Walk and Bike Travel to Parks and School
  Authors: Broach, Joseph
  Authors: Broach, Joseph
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-5327
• Accessibility to Urban Parks in Montreal from the Perspective of Children
  Authors: Reyes, Mario
  Authors: Reyes, Mario
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1058
• Uncertainty in Predicted Sequences of Activity-Travel Episodes: Measurement and Analysis
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2511
• Allowing for Nonadditively Separable and Flexible Utility Forms in Multiple Discrete-Continuous Models
  Authors: Castro, Marisol
  Authors: Castro, Marisol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4076
• Assessment of the Degree of Willingness to Change from Motorized Travel Modes to Walking or Cycling
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4088
• Simultaneous Analysis of Global Decisions in Activity-Travel Scheduling Process
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4194
• Experience or Memory: Happiness of Commuting
  Abstract:

  While happiness is recognized as a universal goal in life, the morning and evening commutes were found to be two of the three activities of the day that most often register negative emotions. Seeing the need to improve commuter happiness and satisfaction, the transportation research sector has developed a myriad of studies on happiness and commuting. The state of the art, while extensive, is lacking in detail in both the happiness definition depth and commuting experience richness. This research aims to provide a comprehensive examination of commuting happiness. First by differentiating commuting happiness into affective and cognitive components and then quantifying the contribution of socioeconomic and commuting experience variables including level of service, travel routine, mode, time, cost, purpose and travel options. 2000 North Americans who commute for work or school were surveyed with Mechanical Turk. Results were analyzed in descriptive statistics and through linear regression models to best qualify and quantify the explanatory variables of commuting happiness. The results show most measures of commuting happiness and satisfaction to be heavily dependent on comfort and reliability ratings, particularly at the negative end of the spectrum. Transportation improvements can thus be targeted more strategically at minimizing poor comfort and reliability so as to increase commuter happiness and satisfaction.

  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua; Lee, Joanne
  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua; Lee, Joanne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1243