2013 Session: 732

• Travel Behavior of Two Major Groups in Large-Scale Residential Areas in the Periphery of Shanghai, China:Case Study of Jinhexincheng, Jiading District
  Abstract: Shanghai is in the process of urban redevelopment. In order to reform old downtown areas and improve living conditions, poor houses are demolished and government relocates the residents. Usually they are relocated in large-scale residential areas in the periphery of Shanghai. Jinhexincheng is one of them. Previous studies usually focus on travel behavior in developed countries. Suburban travel behavior in developing countries waits to be more studied. Studies which look into different people¡¯s travel behavior in large-scale residential areas in the suburbs in developing countries are even scarce. This study analyzes two major groups¡¯ travel behaviors to provide a deeper understanding of this issue in Chinese big cities.Data is collected through a random sampling survey. Considering population pyramid of Jinhexincheng, socioeconomic and travel characteristics, two main groups come out: workers (representing commuters) and retirees (representing non-commuters).Results show that many workers commute across districts while retirees often travel inside the district. The logistic regression model is utilized, suggesting the most important factor of cross-district commuting is education. To workers, buses, mopeds and the metro are popular mode choices. However, to retirees, buses, the metro, supermarket shuttle buses and walking become popular choices. Furthermore, the morning departure time of the elderly is later than the workers¡¯ and the workers¡¯ is earlier than morning peak in Shanghai center. Compared to the world average commuting time (40 minutes), Jinhexincheng¡¯s commuting time (over an hour) is quite long. The results suggest that transportation planning must consider travel needs of different people.
  Authors: Guan, Jinping; Yang, Dongyuan
  Authors: Guan, Jinping; Yang, Dongyuan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-0510
• Capturing Latent Household Preferences in Daily Activity Pattern Choices: Application to Houston-Galveston Region Activity-Based Model
  Abstract: One fundamental feature of most operational activity-based models (ABMs) developed in the U.S. is the concept of a day activity pattern, which in its broadest sense, is a way of characterizing all of the activities undertaken in a day at the individual level. This often includes a sequence of models that generate activities of different types for each individual. In many cases, these models treat all individuals in a household independently, while in other cases, specialized techniques are used to capture intra-household relationships. This paper presents a new technique to capture some of these intra-household relationships in a daily activity pattern (DAP) model via latent household preference terms, while also allowing for other specific relationships to emerge in more standard ways. The model is estimated on data from the Houston-Galveston region and serves as an extension to the DAP model framework being used in the ABM system under development for that region. The results suggest that strong household level preferences exist. For many activity pattern types, these household preferences are more important than preferences of the individual. In addition, the modeling framework is concise, can easily accommodate households of any size, and can predict the exact number and type of mandatory tours (i.e., work, school, and university activities) for individuals in a single model.
  Authors: Lemp, Jason
  Authors: Lemp, Jason
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4400
• Meso or Micro? Integrating Positive Travel Demand and Dynamic Supply Models for Advanced Planning Applications
  Abstract: This study extends previous research efforts on integrating an agent-based positive/descriptive demand model with dynamic network supply models for planning applications on large-scale network. It compares two different integrated models based on microscopic and mesoscopic traffic simulation. Both models have been applied on the ICC network in the Maryland-Washington D.C. area. Simulation results show both models are capable of capturing individual departure time adjustments and the aggregate peak spreading effects. The eventual patterns in departure time shirt look similar in both models, showing that the difference in dynamic network supply model has not affected the overall performance of integrated models. The computing time on the TransModeler model is significantly longer due to its microscopic nature. This disadvantage in computing efficiency is compensated by its strength in tracking individual vehicles and modeling details in vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-infrastructure interactions. Both models are sensitive to changes in pricing strategies. More research efforts are needed to get a better understanding of the performance of integrated models under different scenarios.
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Chang, Gang-Len; Zhu, Shanjiang; Xiong, Chenfeng; Mollanejad, Mostafa
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Chang, Gang-Len; Zhu, Shanjiang; Xiong, Chenfeng; Mollanejad, Mostafa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4594
• Temporal Stability of Generation Choice Models
  Abstract: This paper evaluates the temporal stability of generation choice models considering two different cases. The first case evaluates temporal stability with widely used explanatory variables and the second whether temporal stability improves with the inclusion of life cycle, area type, and accessibility. The results of this research show that generation choice models, with their ability to estimate person trips and accommodate more variables that define the traveler and the trip are temporally stable for home-based work trips by workers and home-based other trips by non-working adults. Home-based other trips by workers show mixed results with respect to temporally stability; while home-based other trips by children do not pass the test of temporal stability with any of the measures considered. This research shows that while life cycle, area type, and accessibility variables help explain travel behavior, they provide little, if any, additional benefit with respect to temporal stability.
  Authors: Huntsinger, Leta F.; Rouphail, Nagui M.
  Authors: Huntsinger, Leta F.; Rouphail, Nagui M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-0770
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Pedestrians in Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Models: State of the Practice
  Abstract: It has been nearly 25 years since non-motorized modes and non-motorized-specific built environment measures were first included in the regional travel demand models of metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs). Such modeling practices have evolved considerably as data collection and analysis methods improve, decisions-makers demand more policy-responsive travel forecasting tools, and walking and cycling grow in popularity. As MPOs look to enhance their models’ representations of pedestrian travel, the need to understand current and emerging practice is great. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the practice of representing walking in MPO travel models. Based on a review of model documentation, it was determined that – as of mid-2012 – 63% (30) of the 48 largest MPOs include non-motorized travel in their regional models, while 47% (14) of those also distinguish between walk and bicycle modes. The modeling frameworks, model structures, and variables used for pedestrian and non-motorized regional modeling are also described and discussed. A survey of lead MPO modelers revealed barriers to modeling non-motorized travel, including insufficient travel survey records, but also innovations being implemented, including smaller zones and non-motorized network assignment. Finally, best practices in representing pedestrians in regional travel demand forecasting models are presented and possible future advances are discussed.
  Authors: Singleton, Patrick A.; Clifton, Kelly J.
  Authors: Singleton, Patrick A.; Clifton, Kelly J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4857
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• TourCast: Trade-offs in Activity-Based Model Implementations
  Abstract: Activity-Based Models (ABM) are becoming increasingly popular for large-scale regional travel models developed for planning agencies in the United States. These models have common features: use of tours as the primary units for modeling travel; an activity-based platform deriving travel from the daily activities undertaken by households and persons; and microsimulation modeling applied at the disaggregate level of persons and households to convert activity- and travel-related choices from probability model outcomes into a series of decisions among discrete choices.The focus of this paper is not on the details of any given model but on the computational implementation of the models. For a new model being developed in Houston, an approach called TourCast was developed to meet the objectives of the local planning process while taking advantages of lessons learned from model implementations at other agencies. The new design approach builds on the architecture of the Denver and Sacramento models but emphasizes efficiency of computation and ease of configuration.ABMs can be time-consuming to execute, and this problem will be exacerbated with more zones, more households, and more complex models. Agencies need to determine their objectives in terms of model sophistication, ease of configuration, application platform, and execution speed and their willingness to tradeoff performance and capabilities to achieve these objectives. This paper provides information about potential ABM implementation methods across the spectrum of model configuration types and discusses the potential tradeoffs among model run time, complexity, and access to intermediate and final model data and outputs.
  Authors: Meeks, W. Scott; Sabina, Erik E.; Childress, Suzanne; van Slyke, Chris Dale; Mullins III, James A.; Ziering, Eric A.; Rossi, Thomas F.
  Authors: Meeks, W. Scott; Sabina, Erik E.; Childress, Suzanne; van Slyke, Chris Dale; Mullins III, James A.; Ziering, Eric A.; Rossi, Thomas F.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-3712
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• TourCast: Trade-offs in Activity-Based Model Implementations
  Authors: Meeks, W. Scott
  Authors: Meeks, W. Scott
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-3712
• Pedestrians in Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Models: State of the Practice
  Authors: Singleton, Patrick
  Authors: Singleton, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4857
• Temporal Stability of Generation Choice Models
  Authors: Huntsinger, Leta
  Authors: Huntsinger, Leta
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-0770
• Capturing Latent Household Preferences in Daily Activity Pattern Choices: Application to Houston-Galveston Region Activity-Based Model
  Authors: Lemp, Jason
  Authors: Lemp, Jason
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4400
• Meso or Micro? Integrating Positive Travel Demand and Dynamic Supply Models for Advanced Planning Applications
  Authors: Zhu, Shanjiang
  Authors: Zhu, Shanjiang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-4594