2013 Session: 733

• Dynamic Route Choice Behavior Analysis Considering En Route Learning and Choices
  Abstract: This paper presents a method to model a driverfs en-route learning process and changes in route choice at each decision node. A model based on Bayesian networks (BN) is proposed to describe the en-route updating of the driverfs knowledge of the traffic state. A random utility-based model is developed to predict en-route choices. A case study based on probe data is carried out to illustrate the development of the model and analyze the dynamic route choice problem. The results show that the model in which a driverfs choice of making en-route decisions is taken into account has a better goodness of fit. The probability of making an en-route choice is related to the distance from the origin and the spatial scale of the intersection at the decision node.
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-0646
• Travelers’ Preferences in Multimodal Networks: Design and Results of a Comprehensive Series of Choice Experiments
  Abstract: In this paper, we develop and apply a series of SP experiments to estimate a comprehensive multimodal, multi-stage travel choice model. In total, four experiments are designed focusing on particular multimodal (including P+R) and public-transport choices for trips of varying distance. A representative national sample (N = 2.746) of individuals from the Netherlands participated in the experiments through an online questionnaire. The data pooled across experiments are used to estimate the model in a scaled mixed multinomial logit framework. In this way, valuations of time, costs and service-quality attributes could be estimated on a relatively high level of detail concerning modes and trip stages. The estimation results can be used to specify link costs functions in multimodal network models for network analysis and route planning.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Molin, Eric
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Molin, Eric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-1310
• Phased Decisions Under Multiple Source of Uncertainty: Analysis of Multimodal Choice Behavior
  Abstract: Most previous research on route choice under uncertainty has examined simple single choices. To contribute and expand to this stream of research, the present study analyzes choice behaviour in phased decisions using the choice of multi-modal transportations chains as an example. An experimental design is constructed in which respondents first have to choose between two bus line/route alternatives, which vary in terms of travel times and associated uncertainty in these travel times, and then between two train lines/routes which vary in terms of the same attributes in the context of an appointment for an interview. Results indicate that individuals exhibit risk-avoiding behaviour. To the extent they take risk, it tend to concentrate at the first phase of the two-phased decision process. Except for age, the effects of socio-demographic variables are not significant. Limitations of the present study and critical considerations for any future work on this topic are discussed in completing the paper.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-1941
• Investigating Changes in Willingness to Pay for Managed Lane Systems: Quasi-Panel Approach
  Abstract: This paper investigates the hypothesis that the willingness-to-pay for managed lanes changes through time in the aftermath of opening and operating a facility. Using a quasi-panel of stated preference surveys, we found that the estimates of the value of travel time savings are higher two years after the opening and operation of managed lanes in both regular and urgent situations. These results provide an indication of a lingering perception of the inherent value offered by managed lanes becomes more evident after the lanes have been opened and used.
  Authors: Patil, Sunil; Concas, Sisinnio; Burris, Mark W.; Devarasetty, Prem Chand
  Authors: Patil, Sunil; Concas, Sisinnio; Burris, Mark W.; Devarasetty, Prem Chand
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2052
• Drivers’ Perception of Route Alternatives as Indicator for the Indifference Band
  Abstract: Although travel time is probably one of the most important attributes in route choice, the shortest time route is often not the preferred route according to several studies in the literature. This study tries to explain this finding by testing the hypotheses that choice makers may be able to estimate travel times correctly for routes they prefer, but that they are biased against alternatives even if these are faster. For a few choice sets of routes in the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times from a license plate study. The comparison confirmed the hypotheses. For chosen routes, perceived travel times correspond quite well with actual travel times on average, while for non-chosen routes, perceived travel times are overestimated by 2 – 3 minutes on average. These results show that travelers are not able or do not want to evaluate routes objectively. This implies that within an indifference band of on average 2 – 3 minutes, they are probably not willing to alter their route choice, even if the traffic situation induced for example by traffic management measures, changes in a negative way for their preferred route.
  Authors: Vreeswijk, Jaap; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric; van Arem, Bart
  Authors: Vreeswijk, Jaap; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric; van Arem, Bart
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2607
• On the Way or Around the Corner? Observed Refueling Choices of Alternative-Fuel-Vehicle Drivers in Southern California
  Abstract: Limited refueling infrastructure is an oft-cited barrier to alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) adoption, but empirical data on AFV driver refueling behavior are rare. To address this need, we surveyed 259 drivers of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles in Southern California at five stations across the metropolitan area. The key survey questions concerned the stops immediately before and after refueling and the driver’s home location. Using GIS, we analyze the least travel-time routes and the station chosen to provide insight into what drivers consider to be their most convenient refueling location. Specifically, we focus on whether they select stations nearer to home or on routes that require the least deviation, when faced with a choice between the two—that is, when no station satisfies both criteria. We demonstrate that, in such situations, CNG drivers are ten times more likely to select a station more on their way between a given origin and destination than a station closest to home. This finding supports the notion that flow-based optimal location models may be more appropriate than point-based models for planning early AFV refueling infrastructures, and that locations near high-volume roads may be ideal early candidates for station sites.
  Authors: Kelley, Scott; Kuby, Michael
  Authors: Kelley, Scott; Kuby, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-3280
• Route Choice Dynamics After a Link Restoration
  Abstract: Carrion and Levinson (2012a) studied the bridge choice behavior of commuters before and after a new bridge opened to the public. This bridge replaced the previously collapsed I-35W bridge in the metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul. The original I-35W bridge collapsed on August 1st 2007, and the replacement bridge opened to the public on September 18th 2008. They collected Global Positioning System (GPS) data of travelers between the last weeks of August 2008, and the first weeks of December 2008. This data allowed to observe the traffic patterns of the travelers on the road network, and identify the possible reasons influencing the travelers' preferences towards the new I-35W bridge vs. other bridge alternatives. For this purpose, they formulated a static model based on statistical measures (e.g. mean, standard deviation) on day-to-day travel time distributions obtained by aggregating travel times of different days for the I-35W bridge, and for all the other alternatives. This study extends Carrion and Levinson (2012a) by considering explicitly the day-to-day behavior of travelers, and by also considering the previously excluded subjects that are transitioning between bridge alternatives not including the I-35W bridge. This is accomplished by specifying and estimating a duration model (i.e. a hazard model) on data of the subjects' morning commute. The primary results indicate that the subjects react to day-to-day travel times on a specific route according to thresholds. These thresholds help discriminate whether a travel time is within an acceptable margin or not, and travelers may decide to abandon the chosen route depending on the frequency of travel times within acceptable margins. The secondary results indicate that subjects previous experience, and perception of the alternatives also influence their decision to abandon the chosen route.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-3483
• Hierarchical Agent-Based Simulation for Modeling Traveler Behavior
  Abstract: Understanding traveler behaviors is very important in studying the transportation system. Traveler behaviors can be divided into two parts: before a trip and within a trip. In this paper, the before trip behavior mainly refers to route choice and the within trip behavior includes tactical driving which may include free-flow driving, car following and lane changing. The route choice and the tactical driving behavior may change as time elapses due to the interactions between travelers as well as due to changes in the transportation network topology. This paper proposes a hierarchical agent-based simulation framework with route choice behavior on the upper level and tactical driving behavior on the lower level and includes travelers’ interactions with the transportation network. The route choice model considers learning from previous experiences, heterogeneity of different travelers, incomplete network information, and communications between travelers. The tactical driving model is mainly derived from the NGSIM program. This hierarchical framework is implemented in AnyLogic® software and tested with two simulation experiments. Results from numeric examples show that the proposed agent models reach the same equilibrium solutions as reported in classical models in the literature and how network topology changes can influence the traveler’s decision making. This agent based modeling paradigm opens the possibility to study and understand the complexity travelers’ decision making under a wide variety of scenarios.
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng; Head, Larry
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng; Head, Larry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-4169
• Network Structure and Travel Time Perception
  Abstract: The purpose of this research is to test the systematic variation in the perception of travel time among travelers and relate the variation to the underlying street network structure. Travel survey data from the Twin Cities metropolitan area (includes the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) is used for the analysis. Travelers are classified into two groups based on the ratio of perceived and estimated commute travel time. The measures of network structure are estimated using the street network along the identified commute route. T-test comparisons are conducted to identify statistically significant differences in estimated network measures between the two traveler groups. The combined effect of these estimated network measures on travel time is then analyzed using regression models. The results from the t-test and regression analyses confirm the influence of underlying network structure on the perception of travel time.
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David M.; Hochmair, Hartwig
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David M.; Hochmair, Hartwig
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-4696
• Value of Freeway Travel Time Information
  Abstract: This paper analyzes the value of highway travel time information systems. This is achieved by using notions of expected utility theory to develop a departure time selection and route choice model. The model assumes that every driver has a level of accepted lateness for his trip and some perceived knowledge of the travel times on the route. Only these two inputs support his decisions. The decision making process does not require the consideration of a complex cost function and does not involve any optimization. The results of the model are used to compute the unreliability costs of the trip (i.e. scheduling costs and stress) and to obtain the benefits of real-time information systems. Results show that travel time information only has a significant value when there is an important scheduled activity at destination (e.g. morning commute trips), in case of total uncertainty about the conditions of the trip (e.g. sporadic trips), or when more than one route is possible. Systems with very high accuracy are not in better terms. The paper also highlights the difference between the actual value that information provides to the drivers and the value they perceive, much smaller. This misperception suggests limited willingness to pay for travel time information.
  Authors: Soriguera, Francesc
  Authors: Soriguera, Francesc
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-5308
• Phased Decisions Under Multiple Source of Uncertainty: Analysis of Multimodal Choice Behavior
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-1941
• Investigating Changes in Willingness to Pay for Managed Lane Systems: Quasi-Panel Approach
  Authors: Patil, Sunil
  Authors: Patil, Sunil
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2052
• Network Structure and Travel Time Perception
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra
  Authors: Parthasarathi, Pavithra
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-4696
• Value of Freeway Travel Time Information
  Authors: Soriguera, Francesc
  Authors: Soriguera, Francesc
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-5308
• Alpha-Reliable Combined Mean Travel Time Measure for Modeling Routing Risk Behaviors in Stochastic Traffic Network (13-0611)
  Authors: Zhang, Wenyi
  Authors: Zhang, Wenyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: P13-6664
• Logit-Family Stochastic Traffic Assignment Models: Review and Estimation (13-1505)
  Authors: Haghani, Milad
  Keywords: "scientific; research; template; custom; poster; presentation; symposium; printing; PowerPoint; create; design; example; sample; download"
  Authors: Haghani, Milad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: P13-6666
• Modeling Combined Travel Choices of Electric Vehicle Drivers with a Variational Inequality Network Formulation (13-2619)
  Authors: Zhang, Ti
  Authors: Zhang, Ti
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: P13-6667
• Dynamic Route Choice Behavior Analysis Considering En Route Learning and Choices
  Authors: Li, Dawei
  Authors: Li, Dawei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-0646
• On the Way or Around the Corner? Observed Refueling Choices of Alternative-Fuel-Vehicle Drivers in Southern California
  Authors: Kelley, Scott
  Authors: Kelley, Scott
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-3280
• Investigating Changes in Willingness to Pay for Managed Lane Systems: Quasi-Panel Approach
  Authors: Burris, Mark
  Authors: Burris, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2052
• Hierarchical Agent-Based Simulation for Modeling Traveler Behavior
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-4169
• Investigating Changes in Willingness to Pay for Managed Lane Systems: Quasi-Panel Approach
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2052