2013 Session: 734

• Residential Preferences Among Residents Along Hiawatha Light Rail Corridor and Their Transit Use
  Abstract: Light rail transit (LRT) has been touted as an effective way to increase ridership. However, not all residents move to LRT corridors for the quality of transit service and access to transit. Using data collected from the Hiawatha corridor in Minneapolis and control corridors, this study explores the characteristics of station area residents, the reasons of moving to the LRT corridor, and their association with transit use. We find that there are few differences in residential preferences between urban residents who live close to or far from the LRT, except their preferences for transit. Further, although Hiawatha residents strongly value transit preferences and the preferences are associated with some demographic characteristics, there are no significant differences in demographics between Hiawatha and urban control residents and the Hiawatha LRT does not have an independent effect on transit uses. Thus, the LRT itself is not sufficient to attract frequent transit users and promote transit uses among station area residents. However, land use and transportation policies may play an important role. This study also finds the evidence of residential self-selection
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-0276
• Integrating Traffic Router and Microsimulator into Land Use and Travel Demand Model
  Abstract: This paper describes a first-of-its-kind attempt at integrating a dynamic and disaggregated land use model with a traffic microsimulator and compares its predictions of land use to those from an integration of the same land use model with a more traditional four-step travel demand model. For our study area of Chittenden County, Vermont, we used a 40-year simulation beginning in 1990. Predicted differences in residential units between models for 2030 broken down by town correlated significantly with predicted differences in accessibility. The two towns with the greatest predicted differences in land use and accessibility are also the towns that currently have the most severe traffic bottlenecks and poorest route redundancy. Our results suggest that our particular integration of a microsimulator with a disaggregated land use model is technically feasible but that in the context of an isolated, small metropolitan area, the differences in predicted land use are small.
  Authors: Troy, Austin
  Authors: Troy, Austin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-1091
• Disaggregated Real Estate Demand Model with Price Formation for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modeling
  Abstract: This paper presents a disaggregated model of real estate demand with price formation for use in integrated land use and transportation modeling. Previous land use models for similar purpose either pursue an aggregated equilibration approach or a disaggregated dis-equilibrium approach without much realistic representation of price movement. We build a disaggregated real estate demand model based on discrete choice model where agents (households) choose residence location based on Random Utility Maximization principle and the prices move to reflect competition among agents. Our model has the advantage over previous models of being able to capture realistic price formation while representing heterogeneous taste of agents in a dynamic modeling framework. Our model has been implemented as a module for UrbanSim, a micro-simulation modeling system for land use, transportation, and environment, allowing users to easily swap between versions of residence location choice models with and without price formation. Implemented in Python and utilizing optimized scientific computing packages numpy and scipy, the module is very efficient and allows models of a large metropolitan area to run on standard computer hardware in reasonable time. In this paper we show the structure and implementation of the model, demonstrate its performance, and present model estimation and sensitivity testing results using housing and population data of the San Francisco Bay Area.
  Authors: Wang, Liming; Waddell, Paul
  Authors: Wang, Liming; Waddell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-1718
• Living Close to Highways: Residential Satisfaction and Influence of Perceived Changes in Accessibility and Negative Externalities
  Abstract: Residential satisfaction is an important proxy for people´s wellbeing and for relocation behavior. In this paper we focus on gaining insight into the residential satisfaction of households near highways, based on survey data collected among 1,230 respondents in the Netherlands. Using ordinal regression analysis, we studied the effect of accessibility and negative externalities, alongside other contextual factors, on residential satisfaction. Moreover, the objective was to gain first insights into the extent to which plans for road infrastructure adjustments influence residential satisfaction. On average, 90 percent of respondents reported to be satisfied with living near the highway. Regarding explanatory characteristics, negative externalities slightly outweigh accessibility aspects. Moreover, subjective evaluations of hindrance appear to have stronger explanatory power than calculated air and noise exposure. Regarding road adjustments, we found that respondents living near locations where a road adjustment has been announced are marginally more satisfied compared to other locations. A reason could be that respondents expect the current situation to improve once the adjustments are finished, for instance by increased accessibility. The overall positive residential satisfaction evaluations near highways may imply that, generally speaking, problems regarding living near highways may be somewhat overstated. Moreover, the notion that the explanatory power of subjective hindrance outperforms calculated exposure levels may give reason to be cautious when making transportation planning decisions based solely on calculations. Keywords: highway infrastructure planning, accessibility and environmental trade-offs, residential satisfaction, planned road adjustments.
  Authors: Hamersma, Marije; Tillema, Taede; Sussman, Joseph M.; Arts, Jos
  Authors: Hamersma, Marije; Tillema, Taede; Sussman, Joseph M.; Arts, Jos
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-2076
• Effects of Competition Between Two Neighboring Cities on Tolls and Land Use
  Abstract: In this paper we model the impacts of competition between cities when considering demand management strategies on both the optimal tolls and residential location choices. The work builds on earlier work which studied competition in a small network using a static equilibrium approach. That work showed that while both cities have an incentive to charge alone, once they begin, they are likely to fall into a Nash trap or prisoner’s dilemma where both cities are worse off. Our research extends this by setting up a system dynamics model which includes all modes and longer term location responses. An isolated city is studied first and a simple welfare measure is used to determine the optimal toll around the central area and its impacts on location decisions and other transport indicators. A twin city is then added. Traffic from the neighbouring city may be charged and the revenue retained - a form of tax exporting behaviour which should increase the welfare of the city. We study the impact on the optimal tolls set by the cities and how the game develops between cities of equal size and amenity. The impact on location decisions and other transport indicators are presented along-side the implications for regulation and the development of cities within regional partnerships.
  Authors: Shepherd, Simon; Balijepalli, Narasimha Chandrasekhar
  Authors: Shepherd, Simon; Balijepalli, Narasimha Chandrasekhar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-2566
• Does Residential Dissonance Impact Residential Mobility?
  Abstract: This research identifies residential mobility behaviour impacts of residential dissonance in Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) vs. non-TODs in Brisbane, Australia. Based on the characteristics of living environments (density, diversity, connectivity, and accessibility) and the travel preferences of 4545 individuals, respondents in 2009 were classified into one of four categories including: TOD consonants, TOD dissonants, non-TOD dissonants, and non-TOD consonants. Binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify residential mobility behaviour of groups between 2009 and 2011; controlling for time varying covariates. The findings show that both TOD dissonants and TOD consonants move residences at an equal rate. However, TOD dissonants are more likely to move residences to their preferred non-TOD areas. In contrast, non-TOD dissonants not only moved residences at a lower rate, but their rate of mobility to their preferred TOD neighbourhood is also significantly lower due to costs and other associated factors. The findings suggest that discrete land use policy development is required to integrate non-TOD dissonant and TOD dissonant behaviours to support TOD development in Brisbane.
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md; Washington, Simon; Baker, Douglas; Turrell, Gavin
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md; Washington, Simon; Baker, Douglas; Turrell, Gavin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-3452
• Comparing Estimation Results of Land Use Development Models UsingDifferent Databases Available in Switzerland
  Abstract: Land development models are often the weakest part of land use transport interaction models. This is partly because decisions on implementing real estate development projects are seldom recorded. In this context, the term project means a prepared plan for creating new space in the form of one or more buildings. Since we are interested in explaining the development of built space using discrete choice modeling, knowing about the decisions on projects would be ideal. However, registers are more likely to have information on existing buildings rather than data on project decisions. If the register contains the year of construction, this can be used as proof of a development decision. Unfortunately, registers do not include information on how many buildings were constructed in the same project.This paper discusses the issue of missing information on projects using parcel-based development location choice models. These models are being used in the implementation of an UrbanSim land use transport model for the Canton of Zurich in Switzerland. The purpose of the development location choice models is to locate development events generated by a transition model to update alternative locations for household and firm location choice models. To discover the effect, if any, of missing information about projects, we compare the parameters estimated on two different databases for each of four development location choice models. One database contains construction projects with multiple buildings, while the other contains only single buildings.Our conclusion is that using building registers is a viable option if no data on development projects is at hand, especially, if there are few projects with multi buildings in the considered area. However, register data often does not contain information on projects, which can lead to biased parameters because the size of the considered development events is too small.
  Authors: Zöllig Renner, Christof; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Authors: Zöllig Renner, Christof; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-3552
• Are Baby Boomers Likely to Retire to the City in Canada?
  Abstract: Due to the size of the baby-boomer generation, the question of where they will retire has important transportation planning implications. If they are to remain in the suburbs in retirement, this will have very different consequences than if they move to urban, transit-rich neighbourhoods – a possibility that has been raised frequently in recent years. This paper addresses the issue by looking at movers from Canadian microcensus data over 20 years and 4 censuses for Canada’s six largest cities. While concentrating on Canadian cities, the paper develops a robust approach to evaluate the evolution of where retirees (or any age-group) have been moving, and how these trends might continue into the future. It does so by introducing a continuous Urban Core Index to classify census tracts as being part of the “Urban Core” or not. Then, disaggregate data on movers for the censuses of 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 are analysed in three phases. First they are analysed graphically, then with a trend analysis and finally through the use of logistic regression. Logistic regression models are used to compare the evolution of the effect that being over 65 has on the odds of choosing to live in the “Urban Core.” Clear trends of 65+ movers increasingly moving to the suburbs are observed for three of the cities (Montreal, Calgary and Edmonton). For the other three cities such an increasing trend of choosing to move to the suburbs is not so clearly observed. At the same time and based on the observed trends, it does not appear that future retirees (and namely the baby boomers) are about to change previous patterns and move increasingly to the city.
  Authors: Patterson, Zachary Rupert; Saddier, Simon
  Authors: Patterson, Zachary Rupert; Saddier, Simon
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-5183
• Comparison of the static and dynamic Land Use-Transport Interaction models: the PIRANDELLO and UrbanSim applications
  Abstract:

  'The paper addresses comparability of two urban modelling frameworks: the static equilibrium PIRANDELLO and the dynamic disequilibrium UrbanSim applications. The two frameworks, though conceptually different, contain some common features in their transportation and land use models. An empirical test includes the long-term effect of an urban toll implementation in the Lyon Urban Area in France. The conclusion is that the static and the dynamic urban modelling frameworks, despite their fundamental differences, can generate, in most cases, comparable empirical results, which are intuitively logical and can be used for policy scenarios evaluations.

  Authors: Kryvobokov, Marko; Chesneau, Jean-Baptiste; Bonnafous, Alain; Delons, Jean
  Authors: Marko Kryvobokov; Jean-Baptiste Chesneau,; Alain Bonnafous; Jean Delons
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-0242
• Comparison of Static and Dynamic Land Use-Transport Interaction Models: PIRANDELLO and UrbanSim Applications
  Authors: Piron, Vincent
  Authors: Piron, Vincent
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-0242
• Residential Preferences Among Residents Along Hiawatha Light Rail Corridor and Their Transit Use
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-0276
• Effects of Competition Between Two Neighboring Cities on Tolls and Land Use
  Authors: Balijepalli, Narasimha
  Authors: Balijepalli, Narasimha
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-2566
• Does Residential Dissonance Impact Residential Mobility?
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-3452