2013 Session: 819

• Who are the ‘Drivers’ of Peak Car? A Decomposition of Recent Car Travel Trends for Six Industrialized Countries
  Abstract: This study investigates the contribution of the aging of the population and changes of travel behavior by different age groups to ‘peak car’ in France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA. The term ‘peak car’ has been coined for the recent trend reversal in car travel development observed in some industrialized countries. Also in our study countries, car travel was characterized by growth for a long time but started to show signs of stagnation or even decrease in the last decade. We analyze underlying travel trends since the mid-1990s and use a trend decomposition based on descriptive statistics from National Travel Surveys and Laspeyres indices. The results indicate that relevant developments had different weight in shaping ‘peak car’ in our study countries. In many places, the aging of the population has been an important contributor to ‘peak car’. In Japan, aging was the most important factor limiting growth of car travel. In all study countries except the USA, where car ownership of seniors hasn’t grown further, increasing car ownership and car use of seniors has contributed to increasing car travel and thus has exerted a damping influence on ‘peak car’. Another important development were new travel trends among young adults. In three study countries the contribution of the decreased car orientation of young adults to ‘peak car’ is crucial: If young adults’ car ownership and / or car mode share would not have decreased, we would not have seen declining total car kilometers per capita in Germany and much stronger increases in Britain and Norway.
  Authors: Kuhnimhof, Tobias; Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian
  Authors: Kuhnimhof, Tobias; Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-2715
• Value-of-Time Multipliers: Review and Meta-analysis of European-wide Evidence
  Abstract: This paper is different in that it provides a review of time multipliers in contrast to the much more common reviews of monetary values. There are a number of attractions of analysing what are essentially within-study valuations of the time related attributes expressed in equivalent units of in-vehicle time rather than deducing the multipliers from analysis of more disparate monetary valuations. We here provide the most comprehensive review of time multiplier evidence yet conducted, covering 12 attributes on a European wide scale. We have assembled 1389 multipliers drawn from 244 studies and covering 18 European countries and have estimated a model to explain variations in these multipliers as a function of a large number of candidate explanatory variables. The multipliers considered are walk and wait time, access to public transport and waiting at interchange locations, time spent searching for a parking space and in congested traffic conditions, departure time shift, headway, schedule delay early and late, the standard deviation of travel time and late time. The main influences on the time multipliers are journey distance, mode and journey purpose. Whilst we observe quite appreciable but plausible variations in some multipliers across contexts, the variation is less than is observed in reviews of monetary valuations. The results seem to be transferable across Europe and will provide a valuable resource, not least in allowing money values of a range of attributes to be deduced from the more widely available money values of in-vehicle time.
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-3554
• Understanding and Estimating Travelers’ Choices Toward International Multimodal Journey Planning
  Abstract: This paper reports the outcomes of empirical research into international multimodal travel choices, executed within the Enhanced WISETRIP project (EU Funded FP7 Framework Research Program). The project aims at developing new possibilities for planning, booking and travelling multimodal international journeys adapted to user needs, multiple trip criteria, and environmental impact. Crucial for achieving the project’s ambitious goal, is to be able to capture a wide-range of user needs and diverse journeys, for which a so-called a ‘trip strategy’ is defined. A “Techno-Experiential Design Assessment” (TEDA), comprising of user interviews and a stated preference survey, was designed and implemented. The analysis of the TEDA outcomes has resulted in rules and constraints for the trip strategy. The trip strategy modeling considers personalized choice criteria and representative travel situations based on forecasts or user defined possibilities of events. Five group interviews, including trials on user experience with potential scenarios and alternative presentations of travel information, were conducted. After that two online stated preference surveys were carried out for four distance classes for international travelers. The outcomes of the interviews and survey include some interesting findings: (1) majority of travelers indicate the need for a multimodal tip planner; (2) use of real-time information and disruption messaging is doubled when roaming cost is not an issue; (3) travelers are willing to switch to more CO2 friendly route if all other items are comparable; (4) safety, comfort and cost are the most important factors that determine the modal and itinerary choice. These practical results help in a better understanding and are considered critical in achieving an enhanced international multimodal journey planner that should be affordable and encouraging for a wide variety of users.
  Authors: Chen, Yusen; Jonkers, Eline; Vonk Noordegraaf, Diana
  Authors: Chen, Yusen; Jonkers, Eline; Vonk Noordegraaf, Diana
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-4213
• Who are the 'Drivers' of Peak Car? A Decomposition of Recent Car Travel Trends for Six Industrialized Countries
  Authors: Chlond, Bastian
  Authors: Chlond, Bastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-2715
• Value-of-Time Multipliers: Review and Meta-analysis of European-wide Evidence
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-3554
• Understanding and Estimating Travelers' Choices Toward International Multimodal Journey Planning
  Authors: Chen, Yusen
  Authors: Chen, Yusen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-4213