2013 Session: 823

• Policy Analysis Using PECAS Framework
  Abstract: The PECAS land use and transportation interaction model of Baltimore MD has been simplified and modified for demonstration purposes. The resulting Demo Model was run to analyze four policies: 1) provision of new crosstown inner city road infrastructure, 2) increase in government activity and employment, 3) public housing development, and 4) mobile source carbon tax. Different types of model outputs are shown and compared between scenarios, including calculation of consumer surplus benefits (for comparison against costs), industrial and household location, space development and rents, wages, labor production and consumption, travel cost and travel composite utilities. The examples show some of the diverse types of analysis possible with a PECAS model and the ways that a land use and transportation interaction model can promote complete policy discussion and holistic planning.
  Authors: Abraham, John; Hunt, John Douglas; Fuenmayor, Geraldine
  Authors: Abraham, John; Hunt, John Douglas; Fuenmayor, Geraldine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4246
• Job-Worker and Income Balance in the United States
  Abstract: Across the country, one of the main reasons commuter trip lengths are increasing and traffic conditions are deteriorating is because people do not, or cannot, live near their jobs. The physical distance between the location of jobs and appropriate housing can be significant. Often the only feasible alternative for workers who cannot work from home is to commute by car to their job location. Congested freeways and rush hours provide ample evidence of this spatial separation. When jobs and housing are located in close proximity, the need for long commutes may be reduced. This study uses journey-to-work data from metropolitan census tracts across the country to investigate whether people’s choices to live and work in an area is related to the presence of jobs, or whether it is related to the type of job. Ordinary least squares regression is used to generate a model that relates the number of people who live and work in the same area to the earned wages of resident and nonresident workers, as well as the number of resident workers to non-resident workers. The results indicate that more people who live and work in the same area if there is a balance between earned wages of resident and non-resident workers. This model fits the data better than previously published models that relate travel outcomes to jobs and housing. Since metropolitan census tracts from across the nation were used, the models derived from this research should be widely generalizable. This research provides planners the capability to predict how employment and housing affect whether people can live and work in the same area.
  Authors: Stoker, Philip; Ewing, Reid
  Authors: Stoker, Philip; Ewing, Reid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-1522
• What to Expect in 2030: Impacts of Fuel Price and Fuel Economy on Land Use and Transportation
  Abstract: The cost of travel, which depends highly on fuel prices, can have a significant impact on the allocation of land uses, the amount of travel, the modes chosen for travel and the routes drivers select in a region. With the volatility of energy prices over the past several decades, the growing instability of energy supply both domestic and foreign, and ever growing demand, it is difficult to predict what fuel prices will be in the future. To begin to grapple with such uncertainty, planners must understand the potential future impacts of energy prices. With knowledge of these impacts, better planning can be achieved to accommodate the likely outcomes. This paper investigates the impacts of increased fuel prices on future transportation system performance utilizing an integrated land use and transportation model. The developed scenarios build on national macro-economic forecasts of changes in household and employment allocations with future transportation network improvements and modeled in a multi-state integrated land use and transportation model for year 2030 in the Capital Mega-region area. The scenarios are designed such that both the impacts of fuel prices and resulting vehicle fuel economy on land use and travel behavior are captured. The model results show that increased fuel prices and fuel economy have a significant impact on land use and travel patterns. Increased fuel prices lead to a denser land use pattern and a reduction in automobile mode share and vehicle miles traveled even though fuel economy increases. The reduction is less pronounced if fuel economy increases significantly.
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi; Welch, Timothy F.; Knaap, Gerrit; Ducca, Frederick
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi; Welch, Timothy F.; Knaap, Gerrit; Ducca, Frederick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4330
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Job-Worker and Income Balance in the United States
  Authors: Stoker, Philip
  Authors: Stoker, Philip
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-1522
• Policy Analysis Using PECAS Framework
  Authors: Abraham, John
  Authors: Abraham, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4246
• What to Expect in 2030: Impacts of Fuel Price and Fuel Economy on Land Use and Transportation
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4330
• Perceived Neighborhood Environment and Transit Use in Low-Income Populations
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-5235
• Perceived Neighborhood Environment and Transit Use in Low-Income Populations
  Abstract:

  Although much has been written about local access to public transport, few studies have examined the role of perceived environment in promoting transit by considering both those who use transit and those who do not. To address this issue, this study examined how travelers’ perception of neighborhood environment affects their travel behavior by analyzing three types of transit user: non-user, occasional user, and regular user. I developed a theoretical framework of travel behavior that incorporates neighborhood type, transit service, socio-economic status, and perception. A principal component analysis was used to reduce many overlapping perceptional variables to latent factors that represent perceptions about physical safety, personal safety, amenities and isolation. The main contribution of this research aims to understand how the effects of these perceptions differ by neighborhood type. To ascertain neighborhood type, this study measured urban-form features of each household’s neighborhood and then classified them using cluster analysis. These component variables of perception and neighborhood type were then used in subsequent models of transit use. The results of this study show that, in Los Angeles County, unfavorable perceptions of environmental conditions are related to decreased regular transit use; however these effects vary among different income groups and neighborhood types. Higher-income travelers are significantly affected by the physical attributes and perceived amenities factors of their neighborhoods. In contrast, low-income travelers are more likely to be affected by safety concerns. In particular, personal safety concerns are associated with decreased transit use in mixed land-use areas, while physical safety and isolation concerns are the significant deterrent to the use of public transportation in low-density areas. Findings suggest that we need policy actions that enhance public safety and improve neighborhoods’ walkability in order to increase the utility of transit for disadvantaged populations.

  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-5235