2013 Subject Index: Economics

• Accessibility and Housing Price Resilience: Evidence from Limited-Access Roadways
  Abstract: This paper investigates the hypothesis that houses located in proximity to limited-access roadways exhibit a resilience to price decline during and after exogenous market downturns. Using a quasi-experimental design, we look for empirical evidence of price differentials before, during, and after construction and operation of network improvements. Using a spatial-autoregressive difference-in-differences estimator with spatial disturbances, we find evidence of price resilience in the aftermath of the real estate bubble affecting the local and state economy. Single-family homes exhibit a price premium ranging from 4.6 to 5.2 percent over their controls. These premium differentials are realized four to five years after the facilities’ opening and following the U.S. real estate market downturn. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by providing a quasi-experimental approach to select comparable parcels for spatial hedonic regression.
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 297
  Paper Number: 13-0193
• Analysis Framework for Designing Two-Device Checked Baggage Inspection Systems at Airports
  Abstract: This paper presents a decision support analysis framework for selecting screening devices, their sensitivity parameters and detection thresholds in a two-device system for automated, non-intrusive inspection of checked baggage at airports. The analysis procedure assumes that the output signals of a screening device, when presented with a baggage with or without security threat, may be modeled by probability distributions. Compared with the pre-specified thresholds, the probability of making wrong decisions (false clear and false alarm) for the baggage may then be estimated. An objective function is then formulated to minimize the total expected cost of screening errors. Based on this framework, two decision criteria, one based on the minimum total expected cost and another one incorporates the operating characteristic curve of the system, are recommended. The application of the analysis framework is demonstrated with a hypothetical problem based on published data.
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey Long; Blejcharova, Nela; Bína, Ladislav
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey Long; Blejcharova, Nela; Bína, Ladislav
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0132
• Financial Evaluation of Mileage-Based User Fee: State of Florida Case Study
  Abstract: Fuel taxes, assessed on a per gallon basis, have been the major source of transportation funding for the past century. Despite increasing travel demand, aging infrastructure, soaring construction, operation and maintenance costs, and improved fleet fuel economy, the federal fuel tax rates have remained unchanged since 1993. It is recognized that the current fuel taxing regime will not be sustainable in the long term. Given the concerns over the future fuel tax revenues and highway funding, a new mileage based user fee (MBUF), based on the actual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) needs to be explored. Successful regional pilot MBUF projects have investigated the technological, institutional, operational and implementation aspects of an MBUF.In light of above stated observations, this study sets out to assess the financial impacts of conversion to an MBUF for the State of Florida. Several strategies including: Time of Day, Area Type, Facility Type, and Congestion Level pricing are financially assessed. An aggregate uni-variant time series model is constructed to forecast the analysis period annual VMT based on the historical data. A robust financial model is designed to estimate the annual net revenues associated with various pricing scenarios.Despite much higher cost of collection and administration, the MBUF (in lieu of the current per gallon taxes) is found to not only generate substantially more revenues, but also could assist in travel demand management by reducing congestion level and environmental impact of urban peak period travel.
  Authors: Al-Deek, Haitham M.; Moradi, Massoud
  Authors: Al-Deek, Haitham M.; Moradi, Massoud
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0332
• Transport Improvement, Agglomeration Effect, and Urban Productivity: Case Study of Chinese Cities
  Abstract: Improvement in the transport sector can increase accessibility to economic activities, which in turn can benefit urban productivity by enabling agglomeration economies which are the major parts of the wider economic impacts of transport. Nowadays, there is an increasing interest on the evaluation of agglomeration effect of transport. However, most of current studies focus attention mainly on the question of improved productivity following an improvement in an intra-city transport system. This paper extends the analysis to look at the issue of inter-city transport improvement and the effects this has on productivity for the case of China using city-level employment and productivity data linked to inter-city transport network data. It is found that depending on the magnitude of the distance decay parameter which represents the conditions of the inter-city transport system, the average agglomeration elasticity for cities in China as a whole can range from a low value of 0.064 to a high value of 0.202, with a middle range value of 0.109 when the distance decay parameter is assumed to be varied from a high value of 1.5 to a low value of 0.5 and with a most commonly used value of 1.0. Agglomeration elasticities are also found to vary across different regions in China.
  Authors: Lin, Tan; Truong, Truong
  Authors: Lin, Tan; Truong, Truong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-0360
• Is There Still A Southwest Effect?
  Abstract: The US airline industry is going through a period of consolidation through mergers between leading airlines. A number of recent mergers have been approved by the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice (DOJ) based on the presence of Southwest Airlines in merger-affected markets. In doing so, the DOJ makes a key assumption that Southwest is unresponsive in its pricing strategy to the reduced competition when its competitors merge. Numerous studies have validated the so-called “Southwest Effect”, where potential or actual entry by Southwest Airlines is associated with lower market fares. However, considerably less work has examined Southwest’s post-entry pricing strategies. In this study, we find that Southwest raised fares more in markets affected by the Delta/Northwest and US/America-West mergers, between 2005-2010. However, Southwest’s fares either decreased or rose by less if facing direct or adjacent competition from a low-cost carrier (LCC). Furthermore, Southwest is now merging with AirTran Airways, its biggest LCC competitor and the strongest deterrent to raising its prices in merger-affected markets. This implies that Southwest is no longer a suitable deterrent to post-merger fare hikes, particularly in the absence of other LCCs in those markets.
  Authors: bin Salam, Sakib
  Authors: bin Salam, Sakib
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics
  Session: AV040
  Paper Number: 13-0429
• Depeaking Schedules: Beneficial for Airports and Airlines?
  Abstract: Post deregulation, many U.S. airlines created hubs with banked schedules, however, in the past decade these same airlines began to experiment with depeaking their schedules to reduce costs and improve operational performance. To date there has been little research that has investigated revenue shifts associated with depeaked schedules; yet understanding the trade-offs among revenue, costs, and operational performance at a network level is critical before airlines will consider further depeaking and related congestion-management strategies. This paper develops data cleaning and analysis methodologies based on publicly available data that are used to quantify airport-level and network-level revenue changes associated with schedule depeaking. These methodologies are applied to a case study of Delta’s depeaking of Atlanta. Results show that depeaking was associated with Delta’s revenue increasing slower than the rest of the network and the industry as a whole, but could have made a profit if costs were cut to a great enough degree. The Atlanta airport likely benefits from the increase in connection time. The methodologies developed in this paper can be extended to other depeaking cases to provide a comprehensive assessment of revenue shifts and to understand airport and network characteristics that are most conducive to schedule depeaking.
  Authors: Katz, Donald Samuel
  Authors: Katz, Donald Samuel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics
  Session: AV040
  Paper Number: 13-0433
• Consensus-Building Mechanism for Setting Service Expectations in Air Traffic Flow Management
  Abstract: A significant challenge of effective air traffic flow management (ATFM) is to allow for various competing airlines to collaborate with an air navigation service provider (ANSP) in determining flow management initiatives. This challenge has led over the past 15 years to the development of a broad approach to ATFM known as collaborative decision making (CDM). A set of CDM principles has evolved to guide the development of specific tools that support ATFM resource allocation. However, these principles have not been extended to cover the problem of providing strategic advice to an ANSP in the initial planning stages of traffic management initiatives. In this paper, we describe a mechanism whereby competing airlines provide “consensus” advice to an ANSP using a voting mechanism. It is based on the recently developed Majority Judgment voting procedure. The result of the procedure is a consensus real-valued vector, that must satisfy a set of constraints imposed by the weather and traffic conditions of the day in question. While we developed and modeled this problem based on specific ATFM features, it appears to be highly generic and amenable to a much broader set of applications. Our analysis of this problem involves several interesting subproblems, including a type of column generation process that creates candidate vectors for input to the voting process.
  Authors: Swaroop, Prem
  Authors: Swaroop, Prem
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0437
• Equitable Resource Allocation Mechanisms During Reduced Airspace Capacity
  Abstract: During bad weather, the Federal Aviation Administration is using various Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) initiatives to alleviate the problems associated with imbalanced demand and capacity. A new concept that was recently introduced to be part of the Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs) is the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), where customers are allowed to submit cost-weighted sets of alternative trajectory options for their flights. In this research we propose a meaningful way for carriers to express some preference structure during AFP. We also propose a resource mechanism allocation that will improve the system efficiency and at the same time will take into account the preferences of the airlines. First we examined how the results from using the proposed preference structure of airlines is compared to Ration By Schedule (RBS). Then we examined how the allocation mechanism proposed works compared to RBS.
  Authors: Vlachou, Kleoniki
  Authors: Vlachou, Kleoniki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0438
• Funding Urban Transport in New York: Revenue Potential of VMT and Carbon Taxes in New York State
  Abstract: One the prime engines of transport financing in the US has been fuel taxes. Yet States with a high proportion of urbanization tend to raise less revenue through that means because of lower fuel use due to the higher mass transit use. Nowhere is this more of an issue than in New York State, home to New York City where half of the transit trips in the US take place. This paper examines options that New York can use to make up for this structural funding problem and achieve desired environmental policy goals as well. VMT and Carbon charges are given special attention. The paper concludes with implications for funding reforms nationwide.
  Authors: Gordon, Cameron Elliott; Peters, Jonathan Richard
  Authors: Gordon, Cameron Elliott; Peters, Jonathan Richard
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0443
• Creating an Air Traffic Analysis Structure to Support Forecasting
  Abstract: A well structured analytical process for air traffic is required at NAV CANADA for two main reasons. The first is for forecasting and the continued enhancement of the empirical forecasting models that are currently under development. The second is to respond to questions regarding the air traffic activity during recent periods. This paper describes the process and levels of analysis without any discussion regarding the results. Results from May 2012 are shown as the sample month.
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0482
• Productivity Performance of U.S. Passenger Airlines Since Deregulation
  Abstract: To evaluate US passenger airlines' productivity performance since the airline deregulation in 1978, this paper measures and compares productivity at both the US airline industry and individual carrier levels.Productivity is measured at the aggregate airline industry level in terms of multifactor productivity (MFP), the ratio of a single output to a combination of inputs, to compare industry productivity over time from 1978 to 2009. In addition, productivity is measured at the disaggregate carrier level in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), the ratio of total outputs to total inputs, to compare productivity growth across airlines and over time from 1995 to 2010.Overall, results indicate that US passenger airlines have experienced tremendous MFP improvements since deregulation despite periods of reduced productivity levels that coincide with exogenous factors including economic recessions, fuel price spikes, and other unforeseen events. Cumulative MFP in terms of airline traffic, measured in revenue-passenger miles (RPMs), and network capacity, as determined by available seat miles (ASMs), increased at 191% and 117%, respectively, between 1978 and 2009. Looking at individual US carriers’ productivity, low-cost carriers achieved rapid TFP growth in the early 2000s before leveling off in the latter portion of the decade. The restructuring efforts of legacy carriers enabled them to improve their productivity growth in the latter part of the 2000s, although at a much lower rate than their low-cost counterparts. As of 2010, although low-cost carriers had a slight advantage in TFP levels, there is evidence of continued convergence between the two carrier types.
  Authors: Powell, Robert Andre; Mwakalonge, Judith L.; Perkins, Judy A.
  Authors: Powell, Robert Andre; Mwakalonge, Judith L.; Perkins, Judy A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0667
• Assessment of Determinants of Financial Innovations in Transportation Infrastructure
  Abstract: Traditional methods of financing infrastructure, which include gas taxation, tax-exempt bonds, and reserve funds, have not been able to meet the growing demand for infrastructure development. Financial innovations such as leaseback agreements, availability payment mechanism, and innovative bonding instruments have emerged to close the gap that exists between the available and needed financing sources. The key to expansion of financial innovations is sustainable policies based on a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the system. Despite their significance for addressing infrastructure challenges around the globe, the determinants of financial innovations have not been systematically explored. The objective of the study presented in this paper is to assess determinants of financial innovations in infrastructure using a System-of-Systems approach, and to demonstrate this approach in the context of the U.S. highway transportation sector. Data obtained from a case-based research approach and a survey deployed to the state Departments of Transportation in the U.S. is utilized in parallel with a network analysis to explore the status quo, key players and interactions, and the drivers of financial innovations for infrastructure. The findings, which include constructs regarding the players, practices, and activities are used to create a conceptual model relating to the drivers of financial innovations. The model along with the constructs provides an analytical tool for understanding the dynamics of financial innovations. Such understanding would lead to expansion of the creation and diffusion of financial innovation practices in the highway transportation infrastructure globally.
  Authors: Mostafavi, Ali; Abraham, Dulcy Mary; Lee, Joung
  Authors: Mostafavi, Ali; Abraham, Dulcy Mary; Lee, Joung
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-0662
• Assessment of Social Dimensions of Sustainable Innovative Financing in Transportation Infrastructure Projects
  Abstract: While traditional financing approaches such as federal and state grants funded by taxation are insufficient to address the existing need, innovative financing such as novel public private partnership models, credit enhancement tools, and new bonding instruments has emerged to expand the fiscal space of public agencies for infrastructure development. Formulating innovative financing approaches is one of the challenges of policymakers to address the ever growing need for restoring the close to failing civil infrastructure in the U.S. Public support/opposition is one of the major drivers/disruptors of innovative financing. Since, public response to innovative financing of infrastructure is affected by the social attitudes, such as public knowledge, awareness, and perception, the assessment of social attitudes is a major component towards developing sustainable infrastructure financing policies. However, there are a few priori studies related to social attitudes regarding innovative financing of infrastructure. The objective of this paper is to assess social attitudes and their implications in policy making related to innovative financing of civil infrastructure. The effects of: (a) economic factors (economic production and unemployment), (b) infrastructure conditions (such as structural condition of infrastructure facilities) and (c) personal characteristics (such as income, gender and education) on the knowledge, awareness, perceptions, and attitudes of the public regarding infrastructure development and financing are assessed. Binary probit and ordered probit models are developed using data collected from 50 states in the U.S. The significant variables affecting the dimensions of social attitudes of the public regarding infrastructure development and financing are identified through this study. The findings of the study revealed that the probability of public support of innovative financing will increase if: (i) the need for infrastructure is significant; (ii) projects are delivered without time and cost overruns; (iii) the benefits of innovative financing are linked with protection against natural disasters; and (iv) the public is informed about the success of innovative financing in other states and in other developed countries. Infrastructure sponsor organizations could benefit from the findings of this study to take the following proactive measures: (1) educating the public to enhance the public knowledge and awareness; and (2) designing financing structures that are consistent with the social attitudes of the public. Conducting these proactive measures by public agencies could ultimately enhance the creation and diffusion of innovative financing to address the need for restoring the infrastructure systems. The study presented in this paper is novel with respect to systemic exploration of the impacts of economic factors, infrastructure conditions, project characteristics, and personal characteristics on the public knowledge, awareness, perception, and attitude towards infrastructure financing.
  Authors: Mostafavi, Ali; Abraham, Dulcy Mary; Vives, Antonio
  Authors: Mostafavi, Ali; Abraham, Dulcy Mary; Vives, Antonio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0664
• Comparison of Two Dynamic Transportation Models: Case of Stockholm Congestion Charging
  Abstract: This paper reviews the transportation models used for predicting impacts of congestion charging in European cities and carries out in-depth comparison of two such models, METROPOLIS and SILVESTER. Both are mesoscopic dynamic models involving modal split and departure time choice calibrated for the Stockholm baseline situation without charges and applied for modeling effects of congestion charging. The results obtained from the two models are mutually compared and validated against actual outcome of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Both models provide significant improvement in realism over static models. However results of cost benefit analysis differ substantially.
  Authors: de Palma, André; Engelson, Leonid; Kristoffersson, Ida; Motamedi, Kiarash; Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Authors: de Palma, André; Engelson, Leonid; Kristoffersson, Ida; Motamedi, Kiarash; Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0760
• Exploring the Feasibility of Using Airport Data in Real-Time Risk Assessment
  Abstract: The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports’ weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link 6-year (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from 8 airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research depicts that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways.
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed M.; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A.; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed M.; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A.; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0834
• Framework for Determining Highway Truck-Freight Benefits and Economic Impacts
  Abstract: Effective truck-freight transportation is critical to both national and local economic competitiveness. Given limited institutional funding, a rational investment prioritization framework is needed for decision makers that supports allocating funding to the most effective projects. However, there is no known nationally-accepted framework for analyzing the full range and full impact of freight related projects. In light of this, this paper proposes a method for not only calculating the direct freight benefits, but also the larger economic impacts of transportation projects. Measurable and critical freight related benefits resulting from transportation investments are developed from a review of the literature, as well as technical input from collaborative meetings with stakeholder groups in Washington State. The identified direct transportation benefits included in the methodology are travel time savings, operating cost savings, and environmental impacts. These are estimated using regional transportation demand models, and additional factors. Economic impacts are estimated using a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The total project impacts are estimated combining the outputs of the transportation model and an economic model. A Washington State highway widening project is used as a case study to demonstrate the method. The proposed method is transparent, and can be used to identify total freight specific benefits and generated impacts. This framework will ultimately be used to enhance Washington State’s infrastructure investment prioritization process.
  Authors: Wang, Zun; Sage, Jeremy; Goodchild, Anne; Jessup, Eric L.; Casavant, Kenneth L.; Knutson, Rachel
  Authors: Wang, Zun; Sage, Jeremy; Goodchild, Anne; Jessup, Eric L.; Casavant, Kenneth L.; Knutson, Rachel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation
  Session: AT010
  Paper Number: 13-0985
• Private Investment and Road Pricing: The Investment Public-Private Partnership
  Abstract: Private infrastructure investment is often viewed as providing an alternative financing method given a revenue stream from a transportation facility rather than providing additional revenue. However, private investment in the form of upfront concession lease payments for newly priced roads can be used to reduce political resistance to pricing, thus generating additional facility-specific revenue. We suggest preserving a portion of the wealth generated by road pricing in perpetuity through a permanent fund, which is one type of public trust fund. Permanent funds are currently in use in Alaska, Texas, and Norway to preserve wealth originating from natural resources. Following Alaska, we propose that investment income from the fund be used to provide an annual dividend payment to all households within the area that is priced. This has several advantages relative to current proposals to reduce opposition to road pricing. In particular, it ameliorates the agency problem between citizens and elected representatives created by the free cash flows road pricing generates. It also creates direct citizen-stakeholdership in transportation infrastructure which increases public support for road pricing. The Alaskan experience suggests that this approach can also reduce income inequality, create higher personal income, and mitigate recessions.
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond Richard; Nentchev, Dimitar
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond Richard; Nentchev, Dimitar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-1087
• Perception of Traffic Safety and Its Relation to Residents' Frequency of Outdoor Activities on Neighborhood Streets
  Abstract: This study used demographic variables, traffic conditions, and street characteristics to explore the influencing factors of residents’ perception of traffic safety on the streets where they live and its relationship to the individuals’ frequency of participating in outdoor activities on these streets. A questionnaire survey was administered to residents living along 58 street sections with varying characteristics, and a survey of traffic volume and vehicle speed was also conducted on all these sections. The results based on a sample of 346 Japanese respondents showed that in addition to demographic variables, residents’ traffic safety perception was affected by various factors including traffic conditions and street characteristics. Traffic volume was an important factor of perceived traffic safety, and residents were likely able to accurately evaluate vehicular volume traveling on the street on which they live. Although perceived traffic safety was influenced by perceived traffic speed, the influence of traffic speed on traffic safety perception was considerably lower than that of traffic volume. Both the perceived considerateness of drivers towards the safety of pedestrians/cyclists and the frequency of actual traffic accidents were significantly associated with residents’ perceived traffic safety. Regarding street features, the total width designated for pedestrians/cyclists and the types of non-signalized intersections were found to be determinants of residents’ traffic safety perception. This research confirmed the positive association between perceived traffic safety and individuals’ frequency of outdoor activities. Finally, several determinants of residents’ outdoor-activity participation were also explored.
  Authors: Dinh, Do Duy; Kubota, Hisashi
  Authors: Dinh, Do Duy; Kubota, Hisashi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-1106
• Transportation Infrastructure Funding with an Electrified Fleet
  Abstract: Transportation infrastructure funding has long relied on user fees assessed on gasoline consumption. These fees have lost purchasing power as they have not tracked inflationary pressures and increasing numbers of fuel efficient vehicles further erodes the vital source of revenue. The emergence of alternative fueled vehicles powered with new energy sources will exacerbate the long term trend of limited funding for critical infrastructure maintenance.Electric vehicles (EVs) are a type of alternative fueled vehicle offering the potential for enhanced environmental and economic well-being through reduced air emissions, lower energy costs, and increased energy security. EVs can be easily charged at home to meet most daily travel needs and are starting to gain in number on our nation’s highways. Current impediments of high initial purchase prices and shorter ranges of operation are expected to decrease as incremental improvements to the underlying technologies drive down costs and increase range.This paper reviews the history of the most important current transportation user fee, the motor fuels tax, and considers criteria for funding mechanisms applicable to alternative fuel vehicles, such as Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) user fees. Electric utility tariffs on EV electric use are proposed as an acceptable transition from the gas tax to regulated utility rates for EV contributions to infrastructure funding.Vermont’s transportation system is used as an example of how EV related transportation funding prospects could be implemented at the state level.
  Authors: Roberts, David
  Authors: Roberts, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0682
• Evaluation of Impacts of Urban Road Pricing on Social and Spatial Inequalities
  Abstract: In the context of “sustainable” urban development, this paper evaluates the impact of setting up traffic toll zones, cordon pricing, on the evolution of inequalities based on a study of the conurbation of Lyon. It simulates a new charging policy implemented by imposing an urban road pricing to analyse its impacts on the evolution of inequalities with respect to the current situation used as reference. Four different types of indicator are used to achieve this. Besides “specific” indicators of inequalities such as those of Gini, Theil and Atkinson, the gravity-based measurement of accessibility is also considered to enlighten public decision-makers on the evolution of inequalities. In agreement with the literature, our results show that the different indicators of inequality produce highly contrasted and sometimes contradictory results on both the scale of the zone and that the city. Furthermore, although an improvement of accessibility was observed, notably for the central zones, it is the first ring (adjacent to the toll zone) that will be affected most negatively by the toll. This is confirmed by the three indicators. Lastly, the indicators of Theil and Atkinson alone show that introducing a toll can lead to reducing inequalities for the zones furthest away.
  Authors: Souche, Stéphanie
  Authors: Souche, Stéphanie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0898
• Congestion pricing and Inter-temporal Preferences Rate Integration in Social Welfare Function
  Abstract: Assessing social benefits in transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure social benefit using different discount rates including the inter-temporal preferences rate of users, the private investment discount rate and the inter-temporal preferences rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rate belonging to different social actors in order to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short, medium and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The method is tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid considering socio- economic efficiency and environmental criteria. Based on the modified social welfare function (WF), the effects on the measure of social benefits are estimated and compared with the classical WF results as well. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and social actors’ benefits distribution in a metropolitan context. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly over time.
  Authors: Guzman, Luis A.; Di Ciommo, Floridea; de la Hoz, Daniel
  Authors: Guzman, Luis A.; Di Ciommo, Floridea; de la Hoz, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-0974
• Comparative Analysis of Road Financing Approaches in Europe and the United States
  Abstract: Road infrastructure has a remarkable economic and social impact on society. This is the reason why road financing has always drawn the attention of policy makers, especially when resources available for government spending become scarce. Nations exhibit differing approaches toward dealing with road transportation financing. In the United States, the current system of road financing has been called into question, for some regard it as insufficient to meet the necessary amounts required for road expenditure. By contrast, in most European countries, road charges are very high, but are not earmarked for the funding of roads. This paper analyzes, the balance between charging for the use of, and expenditure on, the road sector in the United States, and compares the American policy with those of several European countries (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Switzerland). To that end, we define a methodology to calculate the annual amount of fee-charges levied on light and heavy vehicles in the selected countries, in order to compare those charges with the annual road expenditure. The results show that road charges in America are noticeably lower than those paid in Europe. Additionally, the research concludes that, in Europe, road-generated revenues exceed road expenditure in all countries studied, so road charges actually subsidize other policies. By contrast, in the United States the public sector subsidizes the road system in order to maintain the current level of expenditure.
  Authors: Gomez, Juan; Vassallo, José Manuel
  Authors: Gomez, Juan; Vassallo, José Manuel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1147
• Are Changed Living Arrangements Influencing Youth Driver License Decline?
  Abstract: Young people in the developed world are less likely to hold a drivers license and, if they can drive, they are driving less. This is a remarkable trend which is not well understood. This paper is an empirical analysis exploring how changes in youth living arrangements, notably living with parents and postponement of child-rearing, influence youth driver licensing.A binary logistic regression model of travel survey data (1994 to 2009) for Melbourne, Australia is used to explore these issues. Results demonstrate a statistically significant link between 24-30 year olds living with parents and reduced licensing. Some 30% of this age group lived with parents and this has been trending upwards in Australian and international data. In addition, 24-30 year olds living independently with children are more likely to have a driver license. Between 14% and 21% of this age group lived independently with children and trend data shows this is in decline. Together it is theorised that these changes in living arrangements may be influential in overall licensing decline rates. Analysis also established that these living arrangements were not significant predictors of licensing rates for 18 to 23 year olds, suggesting that in this age group living with parents/children was less important than access to a household car, gender, age and employment status. Living independently with children was unlikely to be a significant influence with this group as less than 2% fell into this category.The paper considers implications of findings for policy and opportunities for future research.
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1284
• Addressing Two Issues in Airline Origin and Destination Survey
  Abstract: The methods proposed are intended to estimate historical air travel demand and capacity information which could be useful in (say) calibrating demand analysis and forecasting models. More specifically, we addressed two issues in the Airline Origin and Destination Survey data. One is that it contains some sampling errors. The other one is that it does not provide capacity information. To address the first issue, we design a constrained least square model to estimate the complete historical travel demand served by the survey participating carriers. To address the second issue, we propose an adaptive adjustment capacity estimation scheme and embed it into the solution algorithm of the constrained least square model. We applied the methods to the 2007 survey data. We found that 1) on average, about 75% of the itineraries’ actual capacities are utilized and the variance is about 7%; 2) the survey oversampled the total demand by about 0.4% and the variance of sample rate is about 1.1%.
  Authors: Lee, Tao; Baik, Hojong
  Authors: Lee, Tao; Baik, Hojong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1280
• State Transition of Gaze During Flight Simulation
  Abstract: The analysis of eye movements is a popular tool in traffic safety research. Among different motions of eye movements, gaze is a major parameter of eye tracking process. Besides fixation duration time and fixation duration percentage, transition matrix from one gaze state to the other can catch the dynamics of gaze patterns and capture the important features of eye movements. In this study, an inexpensive experiment system is designed to create a simulation environment where the participants can performance flight tasks. This system combines up-to-date eye tracker (FaceLAB 4.0), flight simulation (Microsoft Flight Simulator X and Logitech G940), and data management tools. Experiments are designed to test critical flight phases under different meteorological conditions. During the experiments, gaze views are divided into three zones: cabin instrument panel, outside and others. Markov Chain models are applied to analyze the data collected from the experiment system. State transition probability matrix and stationary distribution vector are computed. The result shows that there are no significant differences among gaze state transition matrixes, for all the scenarios. In addition, the total flight time and gaze ratio on zones are unstable.
  Authors: Dong, Shen; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Yu
  Authors: Dong, Shen; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Yu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1440
• Charging for Road Use When Road Systems HaveMultiple Independent Road Owners
  Abstract: The dedicated, unindexed fuel taxes commonly used to charge for road use in the United States and Canada are generally considered to be unsatisfactory because, with falling fuel consumption, they do not raise sufficient revenues. They are also unsatisfactory because they cannot function as effective prices for road use, which prevents roads from becoming part of the market economy.This paper reviews the ways in which flexible, autonomous charging methods and technologies can operate within a single, interoperating charging system, permitting road-use charging on any configuration of private, state, regional or municipal road, with minimal roadside infrastructure. Payments by road users would be made to “Payment Operators” who would aggregate the amounts payable for the use of specific road segments and credit the individual road owners with the amounts due to them.After setting out some essential criteria for national (even international) mileage-based user fee (MBUF) systems, the paper describes “thick” and “thin” “autonomous” road use metering. It concludes that only thick, autonomous systems can meet these criteria, and that, to reduce their costs, MBUF systems should be offered in conjunction with benefits desired by road users, such as insurance premiums based on distance travelled. The paper also suggests that such new charging methods should be introduced on a voluntary basis, giving road users the choice of using one of them before the existing one (fuel taxes) is replaced, and that private firms should be invited to offer these new payment systems in conjunction with appropriate incentives.
  Authors: Grush, Bern; Roth, Gabriel J.
  Authors: Grush, Bern; Roth, Gabriel J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-1778
• Minimizing the Impacts of Cost and Revenue Uncertainties on Transportation Project Delivery
  Abstract: A process improvement effort is well underway at the Wyoming Department of Transportation to optimize the delivery of highway projects. Specifically, the focus of the effort is to manage the risks of project cost and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, in order to deliver projects on time and as intended. The goal is to maximize the successful delivery of projects that have been planned 6 to 8 years in advance. The results of this work will provide WYDOT and other transportation agencies with great leverage in achieving performance targets, by delivering more projects on time, with the performance benefits anticipated in the initial selection of the projects. The approach considers various funding scenarios, with plausible uncertainties, and examines candidate methods to mitigate the impacts of these. For example, due to mismatches between projected and actual funding in the intended years of delivery, some projects may suffer costly delays due to a lack of funding, or need to be accelerated in order to spend excess revenue. Understanding these potential outcomes has enabled process improvements to be developed. The results of the effort are enabling WYDOT to maximize the performance benefits anticipated in their asset management efforts. The department will now be able to better manage the amount and mix of transportation projects in the project pipeline, with estimated benefits of between 5 and 10%. In summary, this work will provide information that project planners can use to improve on-time project deliveries and maximize their achievement of performance targets over the long-term.
  Authors: Redd, Larry
  Authors: Redd, Larry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1599
• Putting Schools on the Map: Linking Transit-Oriented Development, Households with Children, and Schools
  Abstract: Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) remains a popular strategy to achieve environmentally sustainable infill development and auto use reduction. Typically, TOD in the United States offers retail amenities and housing catered to singles, childless couples, and empty nesters. Increasingly, TOD aims to foster “complete communities,” which provide a mix of jobs, shops, community services, and homes affordable to more diverse households across a mix of incomes. These goals tend to be explicitly equity- focused and family-oriented, thus calling for a different TOD model than has typically been developed. This requires an examination of the ways in which TOD might attract households with children concerned with access to high quality schools, even when schools are outside the domain of traditional transportation and land use public agencies. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area region, municipal and regional leaders have developed a vision for managing expected future growth that aims to increase equity, support households with children, and create mixed income communities that includes TOD as a core strategy. This paper first reviews the TOD and transportation literature and its attention to households with children and issues of K-12 schools. Then, five exploratory case studies from the Bay Area offer insights into the opportunities and tensions that practitioners face in planning and implementing TOD that might attract families. Reflecting on the literature and case study findings, we develop a conceptual framework that outlines 10 core connections between TOD, households with children, and schools. The paper concludes with policy and research recommendations.
  Authors: Bierbaum, Ariel H; Vincent, Jeffrey M
  Authors: Bierbaum, Ariel H; Vincent, Jeffrey M
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1674
• Fuel Tax Refund Policy and Process Review of States
  Abstract: The primary source of funding for transportation infrastructure is a tax imposed on motor fuels. One aspect of fuel tax collections requires consumers to apply for refunds of taxes paid on fuels used for tax-exempt purposes. Fuel tax refund is a complex process and one of the many ways tax evasion occurs. Fuel tax evasion has been the focus of many studies, however, only a few have focused on tax evasion through the refund process. Fuel tax refund policies of states are being updated regularly in order to curb evasion and to make the process efficient. The Montana Department of Transportation has expressed concern over the possibility of fraud, errors, and inefficiencies in the current fuel tax refund process. This paper presents an evaluation of the fuel tax refund process of Montana by comparing it with neighboring states that have a similar fuel tax refund process. The study includes general fuel tax refund process, eligibility of fuel and refund, refund process, and identified tax evasion. Lessons learned such as allowing only one year to submit refund claims, bulk purchase for agriculture, and died diesel for any off-road use will help states to improve their fuel tax refund process and curb fuel tax evasion.
  Authors: Chaudhari, Jaydeepkumar P; McGowen, Patrick Tracy; Booth, Janelle; Church, Brian
  Authors: Chaudhari, Jaydeepkumar P; McGowen, Patrick Tracy; Booth, Janelle; Church, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1354
• Long-Term Motor Fuel Tax Revenue Projections in Georgia
  Abstract: This paper discusses the results of a model built to capture the effect of how demographic, economic, environmental, and technological changes could affect Georgia’s future motor fuel tax revenue. Currently, fuel tax revenue is the major funding source for many transportation agencies; however, in recent years, inflation and fuel economy increases have decreased the revenue generated by fuel taxes. The model was intended to be a tool to allow users to project long-term revenue and observe how adjustments to different pricing and socioeconomic inputs affect future revenue under both Georgia’s current fuel tax structure and alternative revenue mechanisms. The model projects that Georgia’s fuel tax revenue will continue to increase through 2020 but will decline between 2020 and 2030 due mainly to improvements in vehicle technology. To combat these revenue declines, the model also estimates how much revenue would be generated by increasing motor fuel tax rates or adopting alternative funding methodologies such as the VMT fee. These results indicate that Georgia could generate hundreds of millions of annual additional transportation revenue with a minimal impact to household contributions, which illustrates that leaders have options when developing sustainable funding solutions that promote fuel-efficient and livable lifestyles.
  Authors: Cherry, Phillip Warren; Meyer, Michael D.; Bui, Binh
  Authors: Cherry, Phillip Warren; Meyer, Michael D.; Bui, Binh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1383
• Highway Capital Expenditures and Induced Vehicle Travel
  Abstract: We investigate the effects of public capital investment on the demand for travel. We define capital stock as a productive flow that accounts for the physical deterioration of infrastructure over time. We present a framework where additions to capital stock only cover a portion of the long-run equilibrium level, and where policy decisions are dictated by expectations of economic and travel growth. To the extent that these investments increase productivity, they generate induced travel. Using a panel dataset at the state level for the period 1982-2005, we find that the elasticity of travel demand with respect to changes in state highway capital stock is equal to 0.041in the short run, while the long-run is 0.237. Our results show that changes in capital expenditures in response to past levels of traffic are characterized by a three-year lag, suggesting that the investment response to changes in travel is slow to converge to the desired long-run levels.
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-1568
• The Times Are They A-Changin’? Youth, Travel Mode, and the Journey to Work
  Abstract: Today’s youth live in a far different world than the youth of previous generations. They are struggling to transition into the most unwelcoming job market since the Great Depression, they are the first generation to have never known a world without the Internet, and they must surmount greater hurdles to driver’s licensing than teens of any previous generation. In this paper, we examine the effect of these momentous societal changes on the travel behavior of youth. In particular, we use data from the 1990, 2001, and 2009 National Personal/Household Travel Surveys (NP/HTS) to model the commute mode choices of young workers over time.Our analysis suggests that both the economy and changes in licensing regulations have influenced youth commute mode choice. While youth in 2009 commute by solo driving at slightly higher rates than in 2001, our analysis suggests that these rates would have been even higher in the absence of both the deep recession and changes in driver’s licensing regulations. Whether the observed effects on youth travel will be short-lived (a period effect) or more enduring (a cohort effect) remains to be seen.
  Authors: Blumenberg, Evelyn; Wander, Madeline; Taylor, Brian D.; Smart, Michael
  Authors: Blumenberg, Evelyn; Wander, Madeline; Taylor, Brian D.; Smart, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1592
• Private Finance of Transport Infrastructure: Shifts in Risk Perceptions
  Abstract: Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are about the sharing of risks and risk transfer. The various models are based on respective risk sharing, while responsibilities in financing, business development and governance demonstrate different trends in the various modes. The economic crisis has had an impact on both the transport sector and stakeholder risk assessment. Private finance of public infrastructure has been based on the assumption of ever growing demand and user willingness or ability to pay. Revenue risk was considered comparatively low. Proper allocation of this risk was insignificant. The pertaining economic crisis has highlighted this shortcoming. Risk estimates have shifted. A pilot survey registers this shift. These trends are used to propose key characteristics to be included in PPPs. New financing models may be required. The present research reports on the initial findings of an international survey investigating inter-temporal shifts in the assessment of key risks in Transport sector PPPs and respective impact on the preferred risk allocation strategy prior to and following the financial/economic crisis. The ultimate scope of the survey is to identify the key characteristics of future financing/contractual models and verify the continued interest in the PPP model of transport infrastructure development.Initial evidence shows an increase in the probability of occurrence of demand related risks, as well as an increase in the anticipated impact of the occurrence of political, social and revenue risks. The proposed allocation of risks to financiers and lenders gives the direction of potentially new project finance models.
  Authors: Roumboutsos, Athena
  Authors: Roumboutsos, Athena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-1694
• Pareto-Improving Hybrid Policy for Transportation Networks
  Abstract: This paper investigates an innovative Pareto-improving hybrid policy that combines two policy instruments, i.e., congestion pricing and road space rationing, and takes advantage of the synergistic effects between those instruments. Mathematical formulations for developing Pareto-improving pure road space rationing schemes and hybrid policies are presented. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed hybrid policy offers greater flexibility and is more prominent in leading to Pareto improvement than both pure congestion pricing and road space rationing schemes.
  Authors: Song, Ziqi; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Yang, Hai
  Authors: Song, Ziqi; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Yang, Hai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-1809
• Auctions for Private Congestible Infrastructures
  Abstract: This paper investigates regulation by auctions of private supply of congestible infrastructures in two networks settings: 1) two serial facilities, where the consumer has to use both in order to consume; and 2) two parallel facilities that are imperfect substitutes. There are four market structures: a monopoly and 3 duopolies that differ in how firms interact. The effects of an auction depend on what the bidders compete. With a bid auction, the bidders compete on how much money they transfer to the government. This auction leads to the same outcome as the unregulated game (for a given market structure), since this gives the maximum profit to transfer. An auction on the capacity of a facility leads to an even lower welfare than no regulation, because firms set very high capacities and usage fees. Conversely, an auction on generalised price or number of users leads to the first-best outcome. Moreover, these two auctions are robust: they attain the first-best regardless of whether the facilities are auctioned off to a single firm or to two firms, and for all market and network structures. On the contrary, the performances (relative to the first-best) of the bid and capacity auctions strongly depend on these considerations.
  Authors: van den Berg, Vincent A.C.
  Authors: van den Berg, Vincent A.C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-1823
• Transportation Inequality in Beijing: Impacts of Land Use and Transport Systems on Jobs Accessibility of Low-Income Workers
  Abstract: Transportation inequality is one of key issues in relation to sustainable urban transport. The conclusions on it and related policy implications are still ambiguous, although many studies have been done with cases from developed countries. This paper seeks to provide an initial investigation into the low income workers¡¯ job accessibility and its determinants in developing cities by looking Beijing as a case. The results of the analysis show that there is an obvious social inequality in job accessibility as workers from low-income households have longer commuting times than those from high-income households. Low-income workers¡¯ commuting times is affected by the features of residential location, urban design and local transport system when their socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. A higher level of job-housing balance and metro services tend to reduce commuting times of low-income workers. However, residential density has no significant influences on worker¡¯s commuting time, and higher employment density is related to longer commuting times for low-income workers because of less affordable houses to them in jobs-dense areas. A low-income worker from a household with children has shorter commuting times, which may be a result of a trade-off between high housing rents and proximity to good school in the central urban areas. The results suggest that the fragmentation of job-housing relations, roaring housing price and massive investments in roads tend to worsen the social inequality in transport in China¡¯s cities in the current process of transition.
  Authors: Zhao, Pengjun
  Authors: Zhao, Pengjun
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-1971
• Historical Review of Air Traffic Management System Concept of Operations
  Abstract: Air Traffic Management (ATM) system has the objective of enabling aircraft operators to meet their planned times of departure and arrival and adhere to their preferred flight profiles with minimum constraints and without compromising agreed levels of safety.Understanding a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) is the most critical step required for a holistic analysis of any system, including the ATM system. CONOPS is a document that contains all the necessary information by which to explain a system as a whole for the needs of all parties involved in its production and exploitation. In recent years there have been many attempts to define the future CONOPS of the ATM system whilst ignoring both the current ATM CONOPS and also the historical evolution of the ATM CONOPS.This paper, by means of a literature review from multiple sources, aims to critically review the CONOPS through all the different phases ATM has undergone from the beginnings of aviation. By doing so, this paper aims to overcome the gap in the existing literature related to the ATM CONOPS evolution description. Additionally the paper highlights the importance of understanding of the ATM CONOPS as means for deriving a holistic system description. This has been illustrated with two examples showing the ATM system structure based on the CONOPS from the period between 1990 and 2005, and the CONOPS from the period between 2005 and 2025 respectively.
  Authors: Studic, Milena; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.; Schuster, Wolfgang
  Authors: Studic, Milena; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.; Schuster, Wolfgang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1972
• Traveler Response to Co-present Multiple Pricing Schemes:Results of an Elaborated Mixture-Amount Experiment
  Abstract: Many academics and transportation planners seem convinced that pricing schemes may be one of the most effective policy instruments to change travelers’ behaviour such to minimize congestion and/or emissions, or optimize system use otherwise. Consequently, a considerable amount of empirical work has been conducted, however primarily with respect to single pricing policies. Travelers’ adaptive behaviour to accumulated transport charges has not yet received much attention. Addressing this under-researched issue, this paper documents the construction, implementation and analysis of a mixture-amount experiment involving three mixtures of pricing schemes: toll road, congestion pricing and parking price and three different travel budget levels per day. Basic mixed-amount design applications are extended to include an attribute associated with each pricing policy to capture different levels of travel time savings. Using seven mixtures of the simplex lattice design, we estimate a second-degree polynomial model to predict choice of amount and mixture of expenditures to different pricing schemes, capturing the trade-off with level of travel time savings. To collect the data for the model, a total of 304 respondents participated in an Internet-based stated choice experiment, conducted in February 2012 in The Netherlands. A mixed logit model (ML) is estimated to model behavioral response. Results indicate the negative attitude of the sample towards their willingness to pay for pricing policies. Respondents seem more sensitive to congestion pricing than to the two other policies. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of socio-demographic variables on choice probabilities. Income and public transport accessibility for conducting the rush-hour trip were recognized as the most effective variables on respondents’ preference. Keywords: Transportation Demand Management (TDM), accumulated pricing policies, mixture-amount design, Mixed Logit (ML)
  Authors: Khademi, Elaheh; Timmermans, Harry J.P.; Borgers, Aloys
  Authors: Khademi, Elaheh; Timmermans, Harry J.P.; Borgers, Aloys
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-1966
• Aging Demographics in Medium-Sized Cities: Case Study of Travel Behavior in Kamloops, Canada
  Abstract: In western countries, the imminent aging of the baby boomer generation will have significant impacts on the function and sustainability of transportation systems. While the demographic shift of larger cities will be mitigated by the in-migration of younger residents, smaller cities will experience a sharper increase in median age due to the out-migration of younger residents. This outlook, coupled with the existing auto-oriented culture in medium-sized cities, presents a unique set of transportation sustainability challenges for smaller communities. In the Canadian context, the effects of the aging demographic on transportation demand have received surprisingly little attention, and, though the demographic change will be most pronounced in smaller cities, the existing literature is focused on large cities. Given this, this paper serves to research the effects of age on travel behavior in the medium sized city of Kamloops, British Columbia. From the city’s household travel survey data, it is found that significant travel behavior differences exist between different age cohorts. The empirical behavior analysis is supplemented with the city’s population projections for each age cohort to demonstrate the future transportation impacts of the aging demographics. Though transit ridership in the city is lacking and an increase in older residents is shown to perpetuate this problem, the analysis indicates that the city is well positioned to push for increasing active mode shares into the future.
  Authors: Toop, Erin; Harmon, Adam; Miller, Eric J.
  Authors: Toop, Erin; Harmon, Adam; Miller, Eric J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-2101
• Transit-Oriented Development and Household Transportation Costs: Household-Level Analysis
  Abstract: Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a comprehensive approach to sustainable community and regional planning that integrates critical environmental, economic, and social issues. This study focuses on a fundamental question for end users, i.e., travelers: whether TOD as a planning concept can serve people’s needs and expectations as well as translate into tangible expenditure savings. The role of TOD as a distinct planning strategy in affecting household transportation costs is specified within a sample selection regression model which controls for residential self-selection bias. Using a sample of 6,526 households in the San Francisco Bay Area in 2000 the regression results indicate that TOD has a dominant influence on household transportation costs. However, it makes only a moderately positive contribution to reducing household expenditures on transportation. The regression results also indicate that the self-selection effect accounts for about 21 percent of the total influence of TOD.
  Authors: Zhou, Xin; Zolnik, Edmund J.
  Authors: Zhou, Xin; Zolnik, Edmund J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-2197
• Explaining Willingness-to-Pay for Tolls: Individual Self-Interests, Concern for Greater Good, and Sociopolitical Factors
  Abstract: This research examines citizen acceptance of tolls and road pricing, and specifically focuses on determinants of the individual’s expressed willingness-to-pay tunnel tolls to use an express lane which would be free of traffic delays. We answer the research question “What factors influence citizens’ willingness-to-pay tolls” by empirically estimating a model of willingness-to-pay being influenced by three factors: (a) individual self-interest; (b) the greater public good; and (c) socio-political variables. We use data about citizen perceptions from the Life in Hampton Roads Survey, which is a survey of 700 residents of Hampton Roads, Virginia. We find that willingness-to-pay is primarily driven and motivated by self-interest, through the anticipated direct cost and benefits of tolls to be borne by the individual. In addition, concern for the greater good also contributes to willingness-to-pay. The individual’s perception of government’s trustworthiness, and characteristics of the individual (race and education) also influence the extent to which an individual is willing to pay tolls.
  Authors: Yusuf, Wie; O'Connell, Lenahan; Anuar, Khairul A; Gable, Matthew
  Authors: Yusuf, Wie; O'Connell, Lenahan; Anuar, Khairul A; Gable, Matthew
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-2317
• Economic Impact of Highway Investment at the Metropolitan Level: Empirical Analysis with Considerations for Induced Demand and Induced Supply
  Abstract: Public infrastructure investment, especially transportation investment is always seen as an effective way to boost economy nowadays. Studies have confirmed that positive relationship exists between transportation investment and economic development. However, the magnitude of this impact stays in doubt. Based on analysis at different geographical level and with different modeling methods, the magnitude of the effect varies from around 0.5 to 0. Most of the existing researches look at this problem from an economic perspective of view, and several issues that are critical for transportation problems are neglected. This paper tried to solve the economic problem from a transportation perspective of view, and mainly addressed three issues: using physical measurement of highway infrastructure instead of financial measurement to avoid bias caused by price variance, inclusion of qualitative indicators besides quantitative indicators to represent the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic development more comprehensively, endogeneity of travel demand and transportation investment are considered simultaneously during the analysis. The results confirmed the existence of induced demand and induced supply. Transportation investment has a positive impact on economic development. However, the effect is relatively small, with the short-run and long-run elasticity to be 0.018 and 0.028 respectively.
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2390
• Traffic Congestion’s Economic Impacts: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions
  Abstract: Congestion alleviation has long been a core planning objective in most transportation programs, but existing policy portfolios have been both costly and unsuccessful at alleviating congestion. Road gridlock is inconvenient, but it remains unclear under which conditions this indicator of active urban places also impedes other social objectives, among which this research focuses on the economy. Using panel data for 88 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), this study estimates congestion’s drag on employment growth (1993 to 2008) and gross metropolitan productivity growth per capita (2001 to 2008). Results indicate that higher congestion is not associated with slower productivity growth, but is associated with slower employment growth rates above congestion levels of 28 (shorter-term) or 32 annual hours of delay per commuter (longer-term). Nevertheless, evidence also suggests that natural adaptations to congestion through shifts in industry mix moderate congestion's expected drag - particularly over the longer term.
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2625
• Roadmap to Plan and Deploy Transportation Infrastructure ProjectsUsing Public-Private Partnerships
  Abstract: Traditionally, in many developing countries, the provision of infrastructure facilities as “public goods” has been the responsibility of the public sector and the government. With rapidly changing economic conditions, communication methods, increased economic pressure, and competition for investment opportunities, the “government owned” notion is facing challenges and undergoing changes. In many countries infrastructure investment needs cannot be financed by the public sector alone. To meet these needs, governments are attempting to encourage private sector involvement in investment in infrastructure projects as an additional option they cannot afford to ignore. Private sector can play a vital and efficient role in accelerating and providing the needed infrastructure system that is essential in facilitating the communication and movement of people and goods while minimizing impacts on sustainable development. Public Private Partnerships “PPP” involvement in infrastructure development has gone through several evolutions. There are several attempts and a few good examples that describe such collaborations. However, they differ widely in their physical, political, financial, and technical conditions. There is limited discussion and documentation on the subject of PPP involvement as a collaboration model in transportation infrastructure and technology. To date, not a single set of rules to be followed exists that would make successful implementation likely. This paper argues that a systematic approach could be adopted by the public sector to engage the private sector in forming a collaborative “PPP” model. This paper’s scope is to document, analyze and provide lessons learned and guiding principles and to present a roadmap of how to establish partnerships between public (government) and private sectors. It documents partnering challenges and opportunities and how to encourage cooperation and private sector initiatives. Also, to provide an overview of current policies, processes and challenges to private sector involvement in public transportation infrastructure and ITS technology projects. The paper focuses on how to provide strategies and a systematic approach that allows the government to engage the private sector in forming PPPs and to work together on transportation infrastructure projects (roads, bridges, and technology deployment). Given limited resources, PPPs can be an effective tool to provide transportation infrastructure to development locations. The paper is evaluating several case studies of urban and rural regions in Northern California, Northwestern Nevada and Southern Oregon, applicable experiences, and suggested solutions that could be transferred and adopted successfully in other countries and settings. Finally, a roadmap will be presented for private sector engagement suggesting how to use the PPP collaboration model.
  Authors: Elhamshary, Osama
  Authors: Elhamshary, Osama
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-2779
• Transportation Infrastructure, Industrial Productivity, and Return on Investment: A Spatial Spillover Approach
  Abstract: This study examines the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) based Manufacturing Industry (NAICS 31-33) from 1997-2010 in a cost-based framework. We first construct and estimate both profit and production function models for the US manufacturing industry at the state level that allow for spatial spillovers and interactions. Utilizing profit and production provides an alternate approach to the dual cost function. Through the inclusion of transportation infrastructure spending data we are able to determine elasticities associated with infrastructure investment and industry total costs. The results of the spatial econometric models and the computed elasticities are then delivered in a Geographic Information System.
  Authors: Eloff, Jeffrey J.; Smirnov, Oleg A.; Lindquist, Peter S,.
  Authors: Eloff, Jeffrey J.; Smirnov, Oleg A.; Lindquist, Peter S,.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-2812
• The P3 Potential
  Abstract: For well over two decades public/private partnerships (P3s) have been promoted as a means for leveraging scarce public resources for transportation infrastructure investments. Although the number of P3s has greatly increased since the 1980s, they still constitute a tiny portion of all US transportation infrastructure investments. What are the barriers to P3s, and how might they be overcome? What strategies might states and municipalities employ to expand the use of P3s? This paper presents a summary of findings from a comprehensive study of P3s in California. We present our summary in the form of lessons learned. We find that strong market demand, broad support, and institutional capacity are key factors in effective P3s.
  Authors: Giuliano, Genevieve; Holliday, Kevin Thomas; Elgart, Zachary
  Authors: Giuliano, Genevieve; Holliday, Kevin Thomas; Elgart, Zachary
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-2971
• Feedback Loop Dynamics in Financial Stress Testing ofToll Road Projects
  Abstract: Large infrastructure development often requires public-private partnerships between a government agency (e.g. a DOT) that seeks to meet a public need and a profit-maximizing private developer. Different and sometimes divergent objectives of the partners can create challenges in designing and managing these projects. This paper describes a dynamic feedback simulation model of a public-private partnership to finance, design, build, and operate a toll road, in particular, a financing stress testing model that can be used by lenders to evaluate the effects of typical project characteristics on the occurrence of tipping point dynamics driving the project rapidly to either success or failure. This stress testing uses a mental model where lenders have no risk and developers have to continuously refinance the project based on the current level or risk. The model is then used to investigate the risks associated with different levels of project characteristics including government subsidies. Results illustrate the need to understand and exploit project feedback loops in public-private partnerships projects.
  Authors: Damnjanovic, Ivan D.; Ford, David; Scott, Johnson
  Authors: Damnjanovic, Ivan D.; Ford, David; Scott, Johnson
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3029
• Key Considerations for States Seeking to Implement Public-Private Partnerships for New Highway Capacity
  Abstract: Implementing a Public-Private Partnership (P3) for new highway capacity within a public agency involves issues from enabling legislation through identification, evaluation, negotiation and management of P3 projects. Public agencies will need:•A legal framework to establish and enforce long term P3 agreements;•Policies, processes, and tools to guide policy decisions;•Technical skills to identify, develop and evaluate P3 projects and to negotiate agreements; and•Skilled staff to manage and oversee projects over the long-term.This paper explores key considerations involved in implementing a P3 project at a State DOT or other public agency. Public agencies seeking to facilitate the delivery and stewardship of P3 projects may consider whether to establish a P3 program or develop P3 projects on a project-by-project basis. P3 programs establish policies and processes that enable the fair and efficient evaluation, procurement, and oversight of P3 projects. Those policies and processes include: planning and procurement processes that facilitate the selection of appropriate projects as potential P3s; evaluation processes that assist decisionmakers in structuring commercially viable P3 agreements that achieve policy goals, optimally allocate risks, and bring value to the investment; fair and competitive procurement processes that allow the public agency to select the best partner and negotiate a final agreement that is transparent and protects the public interest; and management of a new role as a performance-based contract manager.
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick T.; Mayer, Jennifer R.; Jette, Aaron; Buxbaum, Jeffrey N.
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick T.; Mayer, Jennifer R.; Jette, Aaron; Buxbaum, Jeffrey N.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-3030
• Comparing Public-Private Partnerships with Traditional Procurement: Incorporating Considerations from Benefit-Cost Analysis
  Abstract: Value for Money (VfM) analysis processes have been used in evaluating various approaches to procure a highway project, to help government officials determine whether, from the perspective of the public agency’s financial balance sheet, a public-private partnership (P3) is likely to be preferable compared to traditional approaches to procuring the same highway project. VfM is an analysis tool that primarily focuses on the financial impacts of different procurement models from the perspective of the agency sponsoring a project. Non-financial impacts such as benefits to users or non-users of a facility are not generally considered, or are relegated to a qualitative evaluation. Quantitative VfM analysis has normally been conducted once an agency has decided to undertake a project and wishes to evaluate how to deliver it in a way that has the least financial impact on its balance sheet. Benefit-cost analysis (BCA), on the other hand, has been used by public agencies earlier in planning and project development phases to determine whether an investment is worth making. BCA is a more comprehensive tool which is capable of quantifying and monetizing non-financial impacts, such as benefits to users or non-users that may accrue from earlier delivery of a project. This paper discusses how BCA considerations may be incorporated in a more analytically comprehensive approach to comparing P3s with traditional procurement, by using some of the results from VfM analysis and adding new items that are consistent with a BCA approach. The paper illustrates the use of the approach using a hypothetical project.
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick T.; Lee, Douglass B.; Timothy, Darren; Mayer, Jennifer R.
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick T.; Lee, Douglass B.; Timothy, Darren; Mayer, Jennifer R.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-3014
• Knowledge Management and Public-Private Partnerships:How State Transportation Agencies Manage Knowledge for Designing and Implementing PPPs
  Abstract: This paper reports findings from case studies of two state-level departments of transportation, to provide best practices for how transportation agencies can improve their approaches to managing public-private partnerships (PPP) for surface transportation projects. The findings reported in this paper draw from two separate case studies of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) and the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), and were analyzed in respect to a theoretical framework. The qualitative research behind this paper involved a review of more than 120 peer-reviewed articles on knowledge management and organizational learning and reports produced by government and industry; content analysis of interviews with twenty-four public and private sector experts through the software application Atlas.ti; and a review of more than 100 government documents on PPPs in Virginia and Texas.Findings suggest that while public sector organizations are often at a skill-disadvantage compared to the private sector on PPPs, public sector capacity can be improved. Four core domains of learning were identified by interviewees as supporting knowledge development for PPPs, including assessing & assigning employees; deciphering & integrating external knowledge, discussing & documenting lessons from direct experience, and designing and evaluating performance standards. Findings also suggest that developing a clear strategy for a PPP program, centered around public interest objectives, is central to improving the government position in negotiating and overseeing PPPs. Furthermore, cultivating a climate where employees feel comfortable reporting on their own personal failures and challenging superiors was seen as particularly important for identifying and acting upon lessons from the implementation of PPPs. Overall conclusions suggest that goal-oriented learning is central to improving the government approach to managing PPPs, and that a clear strategy centered on public interest objectives can drive the process.
  Authors: Boyer, Eric
  Authors: Boyer, Eric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-3141
• Who Knows About Kids These Days? Analyzing Determinants of Youth and Adult Mobility Between 1990 and 2009
  Abstract: We know a great deal about the travel behavior of adults, and more recently about travel by children and the elderly, but what about teens and young adults? This question is particularly pressing because youth in the late 2000s and early 2010s (a) face the harshest economic climate in decades, which has caused much higher unemployment rates than among middle-aged adults and forced many young adults to return (“boomerang”) home, (b) use information and communication technologies (ICTs) extensively, and considerably more than their elders, and (c) are subject to increasingly stringent graduated driver’s licensing (GDL) regulations. All are dramatic societal changes to be sure, but are they affecting youth travel behavior? And it so, how? To answer these questions we examine (1) how the travel behavior of youth compares to that of older adults, (2) whether the basic determinants of youth travel have changed over time, and (3) whether the societal changes described above affect youth travel behavior. To do this we analyzed nationwide personal mobility trends (measured as person-miles of travel (PMT)) between 1990 and 2009 and find that many key determinants of travel are similar for teens, young adults, and adults: being employed, licensed, having access to cars, and residential area population density all significantly affect PMT regardless of age. By contrast, some socio-economic factors long found to influence adult travel – such as race/ethnicity and household income – are not significant for today’s teens. Finally, with the exception of employment, the effects of societal trends (ICTs, GDLs, and young adults “boomeranging” to live at home with parents) on youth travel are surprisingly muted. When it comes to recent changes in teen, youth, (and adult) travel behavior, the adage “it’s the economy, stupid” appears to hold.In analyzing nationwide trends in person-miles of travel (PMT) between 1990 and 2009, we find that many key determinants of travel behavior are largely similar for teens, young adults, and adults: being employed, licensed, having access to cars, and residential area population density all significantly affect PMT regardless of age. Other socio-economic factors long found to influence adult travel–such as race/ethnicity and household income – are not significant for today’s teens. Finally, with the exception of employment, the effects of societal trends (ICTs, GDLs and “boomeranging”) on youth travel are surprisingly muted. When it comes to recent changes in teen, youth, (and adult) travel behavior, the adage “it’s the economy, stupid” appears to hold.
  Authors: Taylor, Brian D.; Ralph, Kelcie; Blumenberg, Evelyn; Smart, Michael
  Authors: Taylor, Brian D.; Ralph, Kelcie; Blumenberg, Evelyn; Smart, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-3214
• Performance-Based Framework to Include Air Quality in Mileage-Based User Fees: Framework Structure
  Abstract: The main objective of the work described in this paper was to develop an approach to utilize mileage vehicle fees to address air quality problems. To achieve this goal, a system of performance measures was created that would allow fee rates to be set based on vehicle and driver performance in a systematic manner. Two sets of performance measures were used to quantify aspects of the transportation system for the purposes of determining an MBUF rate: individual vehicle performance and behavior indicators and system-wide performance indicators. In this way, the eventual fee system reflects how well the individual performed in light of overall system needs.
  Authors: Farzaneh, Mohamadreza; Novak, Kristen; Baker, Richard Tremain; Burris, Mark W.
  Authors: Farzaneh, Mohamadreza; Novak, Kristen; Baker, Richard Tremain; Burris, Mark W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3236
• How Do Drivers Respond to Risk and Ambiguity in Travel Times? Empirical Approach to Behavioral Decision Theories
  Abstract: Drivers’ route choice behavior has been a subject of research for a very long time now. Existing efforts in this area mostly involved models that simplified drivers’ decision process by assuming travelers to have definite information about travel times on various routes. The driving force behind these models has been economic rationality, which follows the principles of rational theory. However, random disruptions in traffic, both expected and unexpected, make traffic networks uncertain and drivers’ route-choice behavior may drift away from rationality. Therefore, efforts should be made to advance existing route-choice models by exploring the use of theories in other fields of science, like psychology, where it has been well established that peoples’ attitudes are often influenced by behavioral factors like subconscious perceptions and risk preferences. The goal of this research is to cross-fertilize state-of-the art behavioral theories and random utility based route choice models to measure drivers’ route choice attitudes toward travel time uncertainty. The route choice attitudes are elicited through stated preference surveys. Non-linear logit models are formulated that incorporate probability weighting, and risk and ambiguity attitudes (two aspects of uncertainty) with a goal of adding behavioral rigor existing random utility framework. Most importantly, willingness to pay values are derived for uncertain routes that are more behaviorally appealing. Finally, the results are applied in the context of variable tolling via illustrative examples.
  Authors: Sikka, Nikhil; Hanley, Paul F.
  Authors: Sikka, Nikhil; Hanley, Paul F.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3184
• Trip Making and Activity Participation of Youth: Trends from 1990 to 2009
  Abstract: Young people today take fewer trips than did previous generations of young people. Why? Several trends are suggestive. First, today’s youth are members of the first generation to have never known a world without instantaneous and nearly ubiquitous mobile phone access. Second, they have come of age and entered the worst job market since the Great Depression–one that has been particularly hostile to young workers. And third, they are the first generation of teens subject to increasingly stringent, and now nearly universal, graduated drivers’ licensing regimes, which have delayed licensing and driving among teens. Our study investigates the trends in the determinants of youth vis-à-vis trip-making (and by extension activity participation). We find that while the effects of income, auto access, and working are all positively associated with trip-making among both adults and youth, internet access appears to have no effect on youth trip-making, and may actually be associated with a slight increase in adult trip-making. Likewise, and remarkably, increasingly strict licensing regimes for teens appear to have little, if any, effect on youth trip-making.
  Authors: Smart, Michael
  Authors: Smart, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-3283
• Classification of Days Using Weather-Affected Traffic in National Airspace System
  Abstract: Classification of days based on weather impact on the National Airspace System is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic management decisions in the past, which ultimately can improve the operational readiness when similar events occur in the future. To achieve this goal, this paper presents a methodology to classify days based on severe weather impact on traffic. A daily index of the impact of severe weather on scheduled traffic flow, termed as the Weather Impacted Traffic Index, is used as an input to perform the classification. First, a factor analysis is performed to identify the dominant weather patterns that occur on various days. Six major weather factors are identified based on this analysis. Factor scores are obtained for each day based on the day’s weather location and severity. Days are clustered using Ward’s minimum-variance method applied to the daily factor scores. The outcome of the analysis is a set of 21 clusters and days within each cluster. While the weather and traffic in the days belonging to a common cluster are similar, they are not completely identical. Following the classification of days, the reroute advisories are analyzed to identify the frequently used routes on days belonging to various clusters. It is observed that the most frequently used reroutes on days that belong to a particular cluster exhibit similarity to the National Playbook routes designed to mitigate weather impact on those days, which is an intuitive result that is supported by data analysis.
  Authors: Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar
  Authors: Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3363
• Positive Model of Departure Time Choice Under Road Pricing and Uncertainty
  Abstract: This paper develops an innovative theoretical framework for modeling departure time choice under road pricing and uncertainty at the individual level, and analyzes the consequent system-level dynamic properties. The proposed modeling framework avoids assumptions of substantial rationality, and focuses on how individuals actually make decisions. Learning, knowledge updating, searching, and decision-making under uncertainty are modeled in the framework. Then, the time-dependent departure patterns along with other system performances are investigated in a series of agent-based simulation experiments. How individuals actually choose departure time under various supply- and demand-side uncertainty scenarios are explored, as well as their effect on system performance and its dynamic properties.
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-3421
• Framework to Analyze Vehicle Miles Travelled Fee Implementation
  Abstract: This paper proposes a framework for a successful implementation of the vehicle miles travelled (VMT) fee. The VMT fee is looked on as an alternative to supplement the current road infrastructure financing system based mainly on the fuel-tax. The decision context for the implementation of the VMT fee projection is discussed, identifying the factors that will affect a successful implementation. This study offers the VMT fee differentiated into three categories of vehicles and three emission classes, following a trend from the European Union that motivates fleet renewal and lowers emissions. A simple case study with three scenarios based on the current fuel tax revenues illustrates the application of this VMT fee projection. Findings from this case study point out that there is a potential for VMT fees.
  Authors: Vavrova, Marketa; Chang Albitres, Carlos M.; Bína, Ladislav
  Authors: Vavrova, Marketa; Chang Albitres, Carlos M.; Bína, Ladislav
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-2915
• Effects of Dubai Metro on Residential Property Values
  Abstract: This paper has analysed the effects of the newly operated Dubai Metro on residential property values for three types of datasets: sale transaction, sale listing and rent listing values. Repeated cross-sectional data were obtained for a year before and two years after the metro started operations. As genuine panel data were not available, a pseudo panel data dataset was constructed by grouping observations into cohorts. A cohort is formed by grouping individuals to either the land parcel ID or the building in which the property is in. The impact of the metro on property values was estimated using both difference-in-differences (DID) methods and hedonic price models. While the results suggest no significant impact on sale transaction values for properties within 2km distance to a station, estimations show a clear positive effect of the metro on sale listing values of residential properties. In addition, we find that there is a significant enhancement in values of residential properties listed for rent due to the operation of the metro.
  Authors: Graham, Daniel; Mohammad, Sara Ishaq; Melo, Patricia C.
  Authors: Graham, Daniel; Mohammad, Sara Ishaq; Melo, Patricia C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-3005
• Local Funding Options for Public Transportation
  Abstract: This paper describes the results of a study that identified and evaluated potential local funding options to help finance public transit improvements. It evaluates seventeen options according to eight criteria. This is a somewhat larger set of funding options and more detailed and systematic evaluation process than most previous studies of this type. This research discovered no new options that are particularly cost effective and easy to implement; each option has disadvantages and constraints. As a result, the overall conclusion of this study is that a variety of funding options should be used to help finance the local share of public transit improvements to insure stability and distribute costs broadly.
  Authors: Litman, Todd Alexander
  Authors: Litman, Todd Alexander
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3125
• Dynamic Road Pricing for Revenue Maximization:Modeling Framework and Solution Methodology
  Abstract: This paper presents a modeling framework and solution methodology for the Dynamic Revenue Maximization Toll Problem (DRMTP). The problem requires determining the optimal time-varying toll prices for a multi-gantry toll road facility so that total revenue is maximized subject to agency-mandated constraints on average speed and average traffic volume. The framework extends a real-time traffic network state estimation and prediction system to provide dynamic pricing capabilities. The presented framework overcomes limitations of most existing approaches by considering: a) consistency between the toll value and the drivers' willingness to pay behavior; and b) drivers' route choice dynamics in terms of competition between the toll facility and alternative routes. The paper also presents the results of a set of simulation-based experiments that are conducted to examine the robustness of the proposed prices under several operational scenarios.
  Authors: Hassan, Ahmed; Abdelghany, Khaled F.; Semple, John
  Authors: Hassan, Ahmed; Abdelghany, Khaled F.; Semple, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-4118
• Beijinger Life Aspirations and Implications for Transportation Planning
  Abstract: One day in Beijing provides a jarring snapshot of motorization issues in China. Beijing is considered the most motorized city in China, and the consequent air pollution and congestion are stark. However, despite worsening conditions and rising prices, owning a car is often portrayed as a natural expectation, or even requirement, for rising middle class Chinese. Prior studies suggest that the desire for cars is a values-based perception, influenced by desires for social status and materialistic aspirations, rather than an instrumental desire. Through semi-structured interviews, this study explores the life aspirations and values of post-80’s generation white collar workers, and how important car ownership is to them. While all interviewees express desire to own a car at some point, the motivations for doing so were quite different. Men felt a significant pressure from women and society to ‘provide’, which includes having a car. Women all saw having a car as necessary, but not because of prestige or status. Overall, the assumption by these rising middle class Beijingers is that owning a car is an expectation rather than a luxury. Strong value associations with driving already exist, independent of driving experience, suggesting the role of advertising and peer conformity. Almost no ‘rational thinking’ weighing mobility options occurred, but thinking was highly emotionally coded.
  Authors: Campbell, Rupert; Zhao, Jinhua
  Authors: Campbell, Rupert; Zhao, Jinhua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4158
• Comparison of Travel Time Indexes and Other Travel Time Reliability Measures Using Florida Freeway Spot Speed Data
  Abstract: Travel time reliability is a congestion measure that is becoming increasingly important to public agencies, elected officials, and particularly the traveling public. The travel time reliability concept for highways is about a decade old and continues to be explored and advanced primarily through research programs sponsored by the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) and FHWA. Travel time reliability expands beyond traditional congestion measures that focus solely on recurring congestion to capture the effects of non-recurring events including incidents, weather, special events, and construction over the period of a year. A comparison of different travel time reliability measures would help agencies better understand the meaning and difference of using different reliability measures. This allows agencies to select and report one or two reliability measures when evaluating roadway operations. The Florida Statewide Transportation Engineering Warehouse for Archived Regional Data (STEWARD) (1) was used in this study for the Florida Department of Transportation. Based on the spot speed sample data, the study found that 90th Percentile Travel Time Index (ratio of the 90th percentile of travel time in peak period to free flow travel time) was the most “sensitive” and “consistent” reliability measure for Florida freeways.
  Authors: Jin, Li; McLeod, Douglas S.
  Authors: Jin, Li; McLeod, Douglas S.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3338
• Sources of Market Power in the Airline Industry: Panel Data Evidence from U.S. Airports
  Abstract: A firm can obtain market power through its dominant position on the product market, or via control of a key resource. In particular, it has been argued that airport dominance is a more important source of market power in the US airline industry than route dominance. We examine this contention by analyzing a 17-year panel of airport-level prices in the United States. We demonstrate that even though on average airport-level concentration appears to be the strongest source of market power, concentration on routes originating at an airport is the strongest predictor of price levels for the sub-set of large and medium hub airports. There is little evidence that either airport or route dominance significantly affect prices in the sub-sample of medium and small hub airports. There is also little evidence that an airport’s dominant carrier exerts market power beyond the level predicted by the airport or route dominance. Our results imply that consumer welfare losses due to airline consolidation can be concentrated in smaller communities, and related to changes in airport-level concentration. We provide a simple evaluation of the possible effects of two recent mergers (Delta – Northwest and United – Continental) in light of this finding, and suggest that the former consolidation event can potentially lead to non-trivial consumer welfare losses to travelers in over 30 small communities.
  Authors: Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Authors: Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3382
• Explanatory Power of Different Data Envelopment Analysis Models for Determining Airports’ Cost Efficiency
  Abstract: For analysing cost efficiency of airports and the determinants of that efficiency there are several Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methods available. The variety across the available approaches is primarily a result of different assumptions in the model specification. Whilst it is well established that the outcome of these models vary depending on what the analyst assumes with respect to input/output orientation and economies of scale, there is still a lively debate on the impact of bootstrapping and the choice of input variables on the explanatory power of such models. This paper analyses the cost efficiency of Italian and Norwegian airports over time. We apply a series of two-stage DEA approaches, with truncated regression models in the second stage to evaluate the explanatory value of the chosen methods and also to establish robust results on the impact factors of airports’ cost efficiency. With regard to the latter we find that the impact of airport size is limited to technical efficiency and that the catchment area is the most significant impact factor on cost efficiency.
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Mangia, Luca
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Mangia, Luca
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3459
• Beyond the Average Elasticity: Applying Quantile Panel Regression to German Household Mobility Data
  Abstract: This paper employs quantile panel regression to the study of fuelprice elasticities. Contrasting with standard panel approaches, thismethod reveals the impact of explanatory variables across all points inthe conditional distribution of the response variable while controllingfor unobserved heterogeneity. Applying quantile panel regression toGerman household data demonstrates that fuel price elasticities arevery high in magnitude - below -0.8 - for a small segment of householdswhose car mileage is low, but that this effect tapers off rapidly amonghouseholds with higher car mileage. These findings have implicationsfor policy instruments that rely on estimates of fuel price elasticities, for example fuel taxation.
  Authors: Ritter, Nolan
  Authors: Ritter, Nolan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-3464
• Low-Cost Airlines-Within-Airlines: Business Model Moving East
  Abstract: Low-cost carriers (LCCs) are a significant threat to the sustainability of conventional airlines. That LCCs are growing – particularly within Asia-Pacific – exacerbates this problem and conventional airlines have reacted to this threat in various forms. One strategy is to create lower-cost subsidiaries, known as airlines-within-airlines (AWAs). Hence, the purpose of this paper is to determine the necessary criteria for successful AWAs while updating analysis of past, present, and proposed and announced AWAs. For this, we revisit existing literature and airline data, mainly from annual reports, from such AWAs. Initial results indicate that AWAs have limited success, with 26 failures of an identified 67, although only three in Asia-Pacific. Of those presently operating, 56.7% are from Asia-Pacific with this region containing 54.5% of the proposed and announced carriers. In our view it is ill-defined strategies, late market entrance, excessive management control, insufficient dissimilarity from the parent, higher costs and less efficiency vis-à-vis low-cost competitors, and comparatively low fares that are key reasons for failure. In contrast, the most successful AWAs have considerable autonomy from their parent, market dominance, decisive leadership, and less deviation from the pure LCC model unless a sufficient revenue premium is achieved.
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Pearson, James
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Pearson, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3580
• Eliciting Risk Attitudes from Route Choice over Simulated Driving Choices
  Abstract: Transportation planners and engineers alike have identified that drivers’ risk attitudes have a significant effect on their route and departure time choices. Our research question is: Are subjects’ risk attitudes different across different geographic traffic regions? If risk attitudes are reasonably accurate across regions then traffic planners will not need to conduct full scale measurements for every new region where a transportation policy needs to be evaluated. To answer the research question, we utilize methods from experimental economics to elicit risk attitudes through controlled incentivized experiments in driving simulators with actual monetary consequences for subjects. Providing monetary incentives has been found to eliminate hypothetical biases observed in other studies that utilize purely hypothetical questions. In addition, we use structural estimation to predict risk attitudes in our sample. Our econometric approach applies the “contextual utility” correction by Wilcox (2011) to control for “size effects” that have been identified in the estimation of value of time and reliability. Although risk attitudes are heterogeneous in our sample and largely explained by subjects’ age and accumulated income during the experiment, we find no evidence of a structural difference between the two traffic regions used in this study.
  Authors: Dixit, Vinayak V.; Harb, Rami Charles; Martinez-Correa, Jimmy; Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Authors: Dixit, Vinayak V.; Harb, Rami Charles; Martinez-Correa, Jimmy; Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3585
• Seeking New Revenues to Finance Transportation Investments: Placing Tolls on Untolled Interstates and the Challenges of Estimating Changes in Demand
  Abstract: Tolls have been used as a major source of transportation finance for more than 50 years and with recent innovations in all-electronic tolling technology, tolling interstates is being considered a viable alternative transportation finance approach. A transportation financing approach being considered by State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) involves the collection of tolls on existing interstate highways on which tolls are not presently collected; however, there are challenges associated with estimating demand changes on these roadways. Central to this paper is a case study that focuses on the formulation and preliminary evaluation of a toll based financing approach potentially suitable for consideration along a segment of Interstate 93 in Boston where tolls are not currently charged. The literature and previous work show that elasticity based methods have been used and are an appropriate first step for estimating transportation demand changes. In this case study, the evaluation includes two different analysis approaches of the expected change in demand: one that takes into account the cost of congestion and one that does not. The results in this paper will guide transportation planners and analysts interested in estimating expected demand changes due to the placement of tolls on interstates not currently tolled. Moreover, these results will enhance our knowledge base concerning the analytical challenges associated with estimating demand changes on roadways that are not currently tolled.
  Authors: Berliner, Rosaria; Collura, John; Gao, Song
  Authors: Berliner, Rosaria; Collura, John; Gao, Song
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3700
• Cases in Congestion Resilience: Fostering High-Functioning Regional Economies Despite Gridlock
  Abstract: Congestion alleviation has served as a key surface transportation program objective, but traditional policy portfolios (excluding pricing) have been not yielded significant congestion alleviation benefits. But while the importance of enabling high-functioning places despite congestion is becoming increasingly apparent, existing research provides little guidance. Links are comparatively clearer between capacity building or travel demand management and economic growth, system efficiency outcomes, and individual welfare improvements. But common capacity building and demand management policies have been and unsuccessful at alleviating congestion. Researchers broadly agree that congestion pricing is a necessary precondition for significant congestion alleviation, but pricing remains politically unpalatable. The outlook for transportation policy to meaningfully reduce congestion is poor in the current political climate, yet it remains unclear how transportation policy can contribute to high-functioning regions despite congestion. To identify “better” regional adaptations to congestion, I explore congestion resilience using a metric of economic growth per unit “cost” of congestion growth. Using case studies of high-congestion MSAs, I explore policies distinguishing congestion resilient Los Angeles and Washington, DC from congestion unresilient Chicago and Houston. Case study results suggest that there appear to be important roles for road policy, public transit policy, and urban spatial structure in distinguishing the congestion resilient from congestion unresilient regions
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 297
  Paper Number: 13-3706
• Mileage-Based User Fees: Proposed Business Model Incorporating a System of Solutions
  Abstract: In the United States, mileage-based user fees (MBUF) are being examined as an alternative funding mechanism for motor fuel taxes due to the declining ability of motor fuel taxes to meet the need for maintaining, improving, and expanding roadway infrastructure. Numerous methodologies for implementing an MBUF program have been proposed, and in some cases tested, in several areas of the United States. Methodologies proposed range from changes in existing practices, such as tying vehicle registration fees to mileage driven, to technology intensive solutions involving global positioning satellite (GPS) system solutions. This paper examines the possibility of implementing an MBUF system by refining existing funding methods to better recognize the differences between urban, suburban, and rural roadway needs as well as the differences between revenue development for routine maintenance, rehabilitation, and expansion of roadways. How existing methodologies such as registration fees and tolling can be combined to encourage efficient use of roadway infrastructure as well as producing needed revenue is examined. In this way, the goals of the move toward MBUF, including those beyond revenue generation, can be met by combining and refining existing funding methods into an overall MBUF business model that targets each funding source to the need or needs they are most appropriate to meet.The paper proposes a business model for MBUF that can result in an overall funding source for roadway infrastructure that meets the nation's needs, is relatively simple to implement, and does not require a complete overhaul of current financing methodologies.
  Authors: Swenson, Chris Robert; Ungemah, David H.
  Authors: Swenson, Chris Robert; Ungemah, David H.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4217
• Investigating the Truth of Heinrich’s Pyramid in Offshore Helicopter Transportation
  Abstract: Several hazardous industries have embraced the premise that incidents of negligible safety consequences are precursors to accidents in a statistical sense. However, in few such industries research has verified the truth of this assumption. This paper explores the relationships between accidents and reported incidents in the context of oil and gas-related offshore helicopter operations, using the accident investigation reports published by the UK Air Accident Investigation Board (AAIB) and the incidents filed under the British Mandatory Occurrence Reporting (MOR) Scheme between 1997 and 2010. Classification frameworks were developed to enable the independent analysis of accidents and incidents in relation to specific variables of interest. Frequencies and statistical associations that could have indicated the precursor relationship were explored. From the results of the analysis, the paper highlights potentially severe shortcomings in the assumptions underpinning incident data collection, as well as on the process with which incident data is generated. For example, it unveils the existence of sudden failures that cannot be reliably anticipated nor reported, and draws attention to a potentially flawed incident reporting culture. Given the results, the paper informs stakeholders in the industry of specific initiatives to ensure that the right lessons are learned from past occurrences (e.g., through ways of collecting incident data that will not solely rely on reporters) and how these could be used to inform future interventions, e.g., via the analysis of potential consequences of incidents, as a complement to the analysis of frequencies.
  Authors: Nascimento, Felipe Augusto Coutinho; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.
  Authors: Nascimento, Felipe Augusto Coutinho; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3923
• Decision Support System to Assess the Impacts of Placing Tolls Along Interstate Highways
  Abstract: As states continue to consider taking on more responsibility in transportation, a major issue State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) face relates to financing future transportation investments. A financing approach being considered includes the placement of tolls along selected interstate highways where tolls are not currently collected. Questions of interest to state DOT officials and transportation policy makers relate to the potential impacts of such approaches. The objective of this paper is to initiate the development of a decision support system (DSS) to assist State Departments of Transportation in the evaluation of the impacts related to placing tolls on interstate highways. Anticipated impacts include capital and operating costs to implement the required toll collection strategies and technologies; expected changes in existing demand along the interstate and alternate routes; potential toll revenue; and privacy and equity implications. With the aid of this DSS, a decisionmaker would be able to specify different toll system characteristics, add options such as desired levels of privacy and equity, and in a matter of minutes estimate capital and operating costs, forecast revenues, perform net present value and payback period analyses for alternative toll collection systems. The paper also includes an illustrative example to demonstrate the application of the DSS to assess the impacts of alternative toll approaches along a segment of Interstate 93 through Boston. The expectation is that this DSS will be expanded to evaluate other financing approaches including congestion pricing strategies, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based fees, and innovative fuel tax schemes indexed to inflation.
  Authors: Plotnikov, Michael; Collura, John; Gao, Song; Burleson, Wayne
  Authors: Plotnikov, Michael; Collura, John; Gao, Song; Burleson, Wayne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3959
• Risk-Based Two-Stage Optimization Model for Optimal Highway Transportation Investment Decision Making
  Abstract: A new methodology is introduced for project selection which explicitly addresses issues of achieving maximized overall project benefits for a given budget level by controlling the associated total risk of expected project benefits at an acceptable lower bound level. The risk of project benefits is quantified by the covariance of total benefits that could be achieved from jointly implementing any two projects where each project maintains a range of possible benefits and corresponding probabilities of occurrences. The methodology contains two-stage optimizations. First, the Markowitz mean-variance model is employed to establish the acceptable lower bound limit of the total risk. Second, the conventionally accepted zero/one Knapsack model for project selection is augmented to incorporate the acceptable lower bound risk limit constraint established from the first stage optimization as one additional constraint. In this way, the overall benefits of projects selected for implementation could be maximized and the total risk of expected project benefits is minimized simultaneously. The proposed model is applied for a six-year state-wide Interstate highway programming and project selection. Comparisons are made in the consistency of projects selection results generated from the proposed model, the existing basic knapsack formulation, and current state highway programming practice.
  Authors: Zhou, Bei; Li, Zongzhi; Patel, Harshingar; Roshandeh, Arash M.
  Authors: Zhou, Bei; Li, Zongzhi; Patel, Harshingar; Roshandeh, Arash M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4044
• Real-World Test of Road User Fees: Evaluating Minnesota’s Mileage-Based User Fee Test
  Abstract: The increasing fuel efficiency of modern vehicles is decreasing the revenue collected by state agencies for use on roadway maintenance. Due to this loss of revenue, there is growing interest among the transportation community in exploring the possibility of implementing mileage-based fees to replace or supplement fuel tax revenues. This study pilot tested the use of a commercial off-the-shelf smartphone device outfitted with custom software to assess mileage-based user fees. A total of 500 participants were involved in test, each participating for a period of 6 months each. To simulate a real world deployment, participants were invoiced for their fees. This paper highlights findings regarding participant perceptions of the fuel tax, mileage-based user fees, the in-vehicle smartphone device, and privacy concerns. This paper focuses on data gathered through surveys and one-on-one interviews. Results from this test indicate that participants believe that revenue generated from the fuel tax benefits them as drivers and they understand the obligation to keep roads in a state of good repair. The majority of participants believed that varying a road fee based on location and time of the day was appropriate; however, participants favored varying the fee based on location. Participant perceptions throughout indicate that as their experience using a mileage-based system increases, so does their understanding and trust of the system and mileage-based user fee concepts. Furthermore, a large percentage of participants indicated they would prefer a mileage-based user fee to the traditional fuel tax.
  Authors: Kehoe, Nicholas Paul; Rephlo, Jennifer A; Miller, Sheryl; Armstrong, Christopher; Johnson, Cory J.
  Authors: Kehoe, Nicholas Paul; Rephlo, Jennifer A; Miller, Sheryl; Armstrong, Christopher; Johnson, Cory J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-4492
• Who Benefits from Rail Transit Investments? Assessment of Rail Access in Denver Metropolitan Area and Implications for Social Equity and Transit Effectiveness
  Abstract: This research fills a critical gap in the literature by assessing the extent to which existing and planned rail investments will provide access to those who are most likely to benefit from and use transit. Previous literature demonstrates that access to public transit for the least advantaged can play a critical role in facilitating social and economic well-being, and in supporting transit effectiveness goals. However, many scholars warn that rail transit investments may not serve transit-reliant populations to the extent they should. This study assumes a transportation equity lens to evaluate the extent to which there is evidence to support this concern. A series of standard and spatial statistical tools are used to examine differences between census tracts with and without rail access, as well as to identify the socio-economic characteristics that best predict whether a census tract will be served by rail. Spatial variations in the chance of rail access for low-income, high-renter, and high-minority tracts are also explored. Results yield little support for concerns that rail transit in the Denver metro will not benefit disadvantaged groups; rather, transit-reliant groups are expected to enjoy high levels of access. However, results should be approached with a cautious optimism, particularly with regard for low-income households, which could be experiencing diminished chances of access, a result that would undercut both equity and effectiveness. Findings indicate a critical need to mitigate for increased housing costs and ensure that equitable access to transit is maintained.
  Authors: Luckey, Kara Showalter
  Authors: Luckey, Kara Showalter
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4571
• Estimating the Impact on Fuel Tax Revenue fromIncreased Electric Vehicles in the Light-Vehicle Fleet
  Abstract: Advanced fuel economies in both traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) and electric vehicles (EVs) have a strong influence on transportation revenue by reducing fuel consumption per vehicle and ultimately drawing down the amount of fuel tax revenue received. It is expected that more electric vehicles, especially gasoline hybrid electric vehicles, with higher fuel economies than ICEs will enter the roadway in coming years, and fuel tax revenues and the Highway Trust Fund will increasingly become more affected. This study estimates the impact that increased sales of EVs will have on future fuel tax revenues by drawing on industry estimates of future EV market shares and anticipates future fleet mix and fuel economy. An estimation process overview is provided and assumptions are described. Fuel tax revenue amounts that would be expected from future light vehicle fleets with increased shares of EVs are compared to equally sized fleets comprised of all ICEs, and future fleet mixes are estimated. Results show that as more electric vehicles enter the light vehicle fleet, greater revenue losses are expected and total losses from years 2011 through 2050 depend on fleet composition and fuel economy. Finally, it is found that the amount of fuel taxes paid by ICE drivers each year remain greater than fuel taxes paid by EV drivers even with advances in the average ICE vehicle fuel economy.
  Authors: Hall, Andrea Lynn; Walton, C. Michael; Jin, Jing
  Authors: Hall, Andrea Lynn; Walton, C. Michael; Jin, Jing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4582
• Demand Shifts and Observed Effects on Traffic Operation as a Result of Congestion Pricing Implementation on San Francisco Bay Bridge
  Abstract: The San Francisco Bay Bridge is one of heaviest travelled bridge in California and in the United States. A congestion pricing scheme was implemented on July 1st 2010. This paper describes the work that was conducted to evaluate the effects of such new toll policy on traffic operation. The study is based on traffic data that are acquired from vehicle detection stations located upstream of the toll plaza over a six-month period in 2010 and corresponding periods in 2009. With data aggregated into hourly and daily intervals, traffic attributes were extracted to compare performances before and after the introduction of the congestion pricing scheme. The findings indicated that the toll pricing policy led to a shift in travel demand and resulted in statistically significant effects on travel operation. In a relatively short term period, from June just before and July just after the toll changes, the morning peak hours’ average speed increased, the vehicle flow rate was lower, and travel time delay was reduced.
  Authors: Du, Yaoqiong; Chan, Ching-Yao; Jang, Kitae
  Authors: Du, Yaoqiong; Chan, Ching-Yao; Jang, Kitae
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-4672
• A Region Divided: Campaign for 2012 Transportation Referendum in Atlanta, Georgia
  Abstract: Following the national trend toward funding transportation with sales tax referendums, the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan region voted on an $8.5 billion proposal in July of 2012. Despite bi-partisan and bi-racial support from the political elites and an $8 million campaign by the business community, the referendum failed with less than 40% of the vote. While just about everyone in the Metropolitan Atlanta region agrees there is a transportation problem, they do not agree on how to define the problem and therefore the solutions. An examination of three competing discourses, congestion, choice, and equity, framing transportation in Atlanta explains why the referendum failed. Polling data, participant observation, and examination of campaign materials are used to describe the interplay between the discourses and their public acceptance. Conclusions are offered on what Atlanta and other regions can do to build consensus around transportation moving forward and what this means for the growing trend of using sales tax referendums to fund transportation.
  Authors: Paget-Seekins, Laurel
  Authors: Paget-Seekins, Laurel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4715
• Rural Highway Expansion and Economic Development: Impacts on Private Earnings and Employment
  Abstract: With the interstate system substantially complete, the majority of new investment in highways is likely to take the form of selective capacity expansion projects in urban areas, along with incremental expansions and upgrades to expressway or freeway standards of existing intercity highway corridors. This paper focuses specifically on the latter type of project, rural highway expansions designed to connect smaller outstate cities and towns, and examines their effects on industry-level private earnings and local employment. We examine three case study projects in rural Minnesota and use panel data on local earnings and employment to estimate the impacts of the improvements. Our results indicate that none of the projects studied generated statistically significant increases in earnings or employment, a finding we attribute to the relatively small time savings associated with the projects and the maturity of the highway network. We suggest that for rural highway expansion projects, as with other types of transportation projects, user benefits should be a primary evaluation criterion rather than employment impacts.
  Authors: Iacono, Michael J.; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Iacono, Michael J.; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-4701
• Gasoline Price Volatility and the Willingness to Support Investment in Mass Transit
  Abstract: The determinants of public opinion toward public transit is a little-researched topic, though a more thorough understanding of what makes consumers willing support transit may reveal which attributes consumers value most. In this paper, I hypothesize that one determinant of people’s willingness to support mass transit investment is the economic climate surrounding the use of transit’s principal competition—the car. In this case, I examine the cost of gasoline. I hypothesize that fuel price volatility, rather than gasoline price itself, will be positively associated with a stated support for more mass transit funding. That is: as the price of gasoline becomes more uncertain, the public should, all else equal, support investment in forms of transportation that provide consumers with some measure of protection from the price of fuel. Results suggest a strong effect of price volatility on consumers’ willingness to support transit expenditures, and no effect of price itself.
  Authors: Smart, Michael
  Authors: Smart, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-4740
• Using the Real Estate Market to Establish Light Rail Station Catchment Areas: Case Study of Attached Residential Property Values in Salt Lake County with Respect to Light Rail Station Distance
  Abstract: Considerable literature reports the price effects of light rail transit accessibility on residential properties built principally for owner-occupants. Few show the relationship between light rail transit and rental apartment building values and those that do evaluated outcomes within narrow distance bands from light rail transit stations. Our paper closes some of this gap in research. We estimate the association between TRAX, the light rail system operated by the Utah Transit Authority serving Salt Lake County, Utah, and the value of rental apartment buildings in one-quarter mile distance-bands from light rail stations out to one and one-half miles. Controlling for structural, neighborhood and location characteristics, we find a positive relationship between TRAX station proximity and rental apartment building values to one and one-quarter miles but not beyond. Implications are offered.
  Authors: Nelson, Arthur C.; Petheram, Susan J.; Miller, Matt; Ewing, Reid
  Authors: Nelson, Arthur C.; Petheram, Susan J.; Miller, Matt; Ewing, Reid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-4771
• Flight Time Predictability: Concepts, Metrics, and Impact on Scheduled Block Time
  Abstract: The concept of predictability in air transportation has received increased attention in recent service quality assessments. While in ground transportation the concept of predictability has been extensively studied, there is little literature in air transportation. In this paper, a systematic review of the analogy regarding travel time reliability, or predictability between the two types of transportation is conducted. New concepts of flight predictability and different approaches to measure it at the individual flight level are proposed. The predictability performance of the National Airspace System over the past few years is examined based on predictability measures. It is found that predictability performance has similar trends with traffic volume and flight delay. The time-based metric is further decomposed to see proportion of different contributions. Then, the relationship between flight predictability and scheduled block-time is investigated empirically. Multiple regression models are conducted with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) data. The impact of predictability is incorporated into the models with different approaches. It is found that departure delay plays a minor role in setting scheduled block-time, and that scheduled block times are insensitive to historical flight times in the upper tail of the flight time distribution.
  Authors: Hao, Lu; Hansen, Mark
  Authors: Hao, Lu; Hansen, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-4770
• Impact of Highway Construction on Land Prices: Case of the Beltway in São Paulo, Brazil
  Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of highways on land prices using the implementation of the west branch of a large beltway around Sao Paulo Metroplitan Area. This is a unique opportunity since the beltway is being implemented by branches. So, it is possible to use the zones surrounding the branches where construction has actually started as a treatment group to be compared with zones surrounding branches for which construction has not started yet. Since we have a proxy for land price data before and after construction, it is possible to estimate the impact by difference-in-difference. The evidence is that there are significant and asymmetrical effects caused by the highway construction. Parcels located close to ramps outbound of the track observed an increase in price faster than similar zones close to other (planned) branches. For parcels located inbound of the beltway, relatively far from the track (between 2.5 km and 5 km), the effects of construction and delivery/operation faced a (relative) decline in land prices. These results have consequences for transportation finance; betterment levies and value capture taxes; and welfare.
  Authors: Maciel, Vladimir Fernandes; Biderman, Ciro
  Authors: Maciel, Vladimir Fernandes; Biderman, Ciro
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 297
  Paper Number: 13-4528
• Neighborhoods of Affinity: Social Forces and Travel in Queer Neighborhoods
  Abstract: In this paper, we present the concept of a “neighborhood of affinity” and analyze this concept for queer neighborhoods. Neighborhoods of affinity are neighborhoods where a particular social group resides in close proximity and has strong social ties. We analyze the travel behavior of same-sex couples living in queer (lesbian, gay, bi-sexual and transgender) neighborhoods. We hypothesize that many LGBT individuals choose to reside in LGBT neighborhoods in order to participate in queer political, social and economic activities; proximity to work may thus be less important for LGBT individuals when selecting a home. We hypothesize that this unique residential location choice calculus may thus result in longer commute trips and shorter non-work trips. To test these hypotheses, we use the 2009 National Household Travel Survey, and employ a linear regression model to examine the relationship between LGBT clustering in space and distance for non-work and work trips. Our results suggest that living in a queer neighborhood has a strong negative effect on all trip distances of male-male partnered households (both work-related and non-work), even after controlling for a number of other factors. The results suggest that social networks embedded in neighborhoods may have a strong influence on individuals’ activity and travel patterns.
  Authors: Smart, Michael; Klein, Nicholas J.
  Authors: Smart, Michael; Klein, Nicholas J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4817
• Fuel Tax Evasion via the Fuel Tax Refund Process
  Abstract: Despite data that estimates the amount of fuel tax evasion, little research has examined fuel tax evasion through the fuel tax refund process. This paper presents data analysis indicating that the fuel tax refund process, although susceptible to errors, is not heavily populated with evasion. Motor fuel taxes are excise taxes meant to benefit transportation infrastructure. But some fuel uses occur off of the roadway; for example, a farming tractor expends fuel while plowing a field; well-drilling trucks expend fuel while drilling a well; and, refrigeration units on trucks with a fuel tank separate of the primary fuel tank expend fuel powering a refrigerator pump. Arguably, users should not have to pay an excise tax for fuel used for off-road purposes. For diesel, at least, the federal government created tax-exempt, dyed diesel. But not all users are able to purchase dyed diesel, or they require another type of fuel. The federal government and some state governments provide processes for these off-road users to obtain tax credits or refunds when tax exempt fuel is unavailable, but these processes are susceptible to errors, omissions, and evasion. This paper examines data from a three-year period for three types of refunds from Montana, but the results have implications for all states. The data indicates that mathematical errors and errors relating to the forms most commonly plague the refund process. And yet, the data does not indicate that much evasion is occurring within the fuel tax refund process.
  Authors: Church, Brian V.; McGowen, Patrick Tracy; Abernathy, Craig
  Authors: Church, Brian V.; McGowen, Patrick Tracy; Abernathy, Craig
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4944
• Determining Reasonable Toll Highway Network Scale in China
  Abstract: This research introduces a new methodology for determining the reasonable scale of tollway network in China by which addressing issues of impacts of non-debt investment, agency costs of construction and maintenance, and other cost items, user costs of travel time, debt repayment, and toll revenue on the scale of tollway network. Specifically, the proposed methodology contains a bi-level optimization model where the lower level optimization conducts network traffic assignments using O-D travel demand to obtain traffic volumes on tollway segments and the upper level optimization utilizes assigned traffic volumes as inputs to determine reasonable scale of tollway network. The bi-level model is successfully applied in a computational study to determine the reasonable expressway network scales in provinces of Jiangsu, Hebei, Shaanxi, and Jilin located in the east, north, northeastern, and western economic regions in the country. It was revealed that the current expressway network scales in all four provinces are much higher than the reasonable scales by 22 to 38 percent. All provinces face pressure of extremely high asset-debt risk. With the high asset-debt risk associated with the current national expressway network in place, the issue would become even more extensive and devastating if superimposing additional expressways according to the provincial level expressway network plan that essentially doubles the expressway network scale. It is recommended to seek alternative financial resources to reduce the funding gap and one possible solution would be to attract social capitals entering into the construction and management of expressways.
  Authors: Wang, Jianwei; Mao, Xinhua; Li, Zongzhi; Moore, Adrian T.; Staley, Samuel
  Authors: Wang, Jianwei; Mao, Xinhua; Li, Zongzhi; Moore, Adrian T.; Staley, Samuel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4977
• Use of Passenger Facility Charges as a Funding Stream for Sustainable Transport Facilities at Airports
  Abstract: In this paper we use a case study approach to examine how airport operators have used Passenger Facility Charges to finance sustainable transport facilities, specifically multimodal transit and rail links, on their properties. Passenger Facility Charges (PFCs) are charges that airports may impose on boarding passengers to fund improvements on their properties. Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements, PFC projects must enhance security, increase capacity, or reduce noise impacts. Importantly, unlike Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants, the other significant FAA-administered improvement fund, PFCs can finance non-aeronautical projects (on the “land” side)—access roads, terminals and gates. This represents a potential major revenue stream for airport multimodal transit and rail connections. However, PFCS are limited to projects located on airport property and for the exclusive benefit of airport passengers, employees and visitors. We examine the types of projects that have been funded by these charges and obstacles to their use.Our findings suggest that there is growing airport operator interest in developing multimodal transit connections, as well as federal policy support. Motivations for this consideration include airport operators' increasing interest in improving their properties' sustainability.Through this research, we identify exemplar cases of PFC-funded intermodal projects and how FAA policy shaped them. We also identify areas for additional research: studies to develop deeper knowledge of effective airport intermodal strategies, more robust evaluation of economic impacts and effects on mode split and greater understanding of integrating airports with the surface transportation system, especially with recent federal and state policy efforts and discussions related to the development of high-speed rail.
  Authors: Orrick, Phyllis; Frick, Karen Trapenberg
  Authors: Orrick, Phyllis; Frick, Karen Trapenberg
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5055
• Transit and Access to Jobs in Competitive Clusters
  Abstract: Since the 1990s, the concept of competitive economic clusters, export oriented industries that are geographically clustered and linked to one another through trading or other arrangements that signify regional specialization, has become an important tool of regional economic development. In this study we use the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area to identify its regional competitive clusters and look at the role the current metropolitan transit system plays in providing access to jobs in these sectors. We identify nine clusters for the region and find that the clusters exhibit different location patterns which affects their ability to be served by transit. We argue that understanding the connection between transit systems and regional competitive clusters have critical policy implications for increasing transit ridership, reducing negative consequences associated extensive auto use, strengthening existing economic clusters by expanding the labor force access, and improving the accessibility for those that are transit dependent in the region to jobs in these sectors. To ensure that jobs with different skill requirements are encompassed in our analysis, we use an expanded definition of economic clusters where a range of industrial sectors are linked together through trading relationships. Though these clusters at their center are anchored by the sectors considered the drivers of the regional economy, the related sectors we identify as part of these clusters constitute a range of employers and labor force needs. The framework allows for focusing on the regions strengths and ensuring that people of varying transportation needs can participate in these growing sectors.
  Authors: Tilahun, Nebiyou Yonas; Fan, Yingling
  Authors: Tilahun, Nebiyou Yonas; Fan, Yingling
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-5062
• Development of a National Airport-to-Airport Origin-Destination Table of Air Trips in the United States
  Abstract: Several large and detailed datasets describing air travel within and to and from the United States are collected by the FAA and in part or in their entirety are made publicly available. These datasets include the Airline Origin and Destination Survey Data (DB1B) and T-100 data that describe air passenger trips between airports in several different ways. The data potentially provide travel researchers with a high level of understanding of the air travel market in the United States and in particular represent a comprehensive database of air trip origins and destinations, but their large size and individual limitations means that using them for this purpose is practically difficult and not well understood or documented in the literature.This paper describes an analysis and comparison of the complete 2008 DB1B public dataset, the restricted DB1B international dataset, the T100 market data and the T100 segment data. The paper includes discussion of techniques to process the datasets, infer round trip directions in the DB1B datasets to understand visitor and resident segmentation at a given airport, and to adjust the DB1B sample data so that they better reflect the T100 market data. Finally, the paper presents the results of this work, which is a complete, airport to airport origin-destination table for 2008, segmented into visitors and residents. This table is an input to continuing work, which forms part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Travel Analysis Framework, to develop county to county origin-destination tables for air trips in the United States.
  Authors: Smith, Colin; Sana, Bhargava
  Authors: Smith, Colin; Sana, Bhargava
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5145
• Time on Market and Impact of Mass Rapid Transit System on Residential Property Values: Case of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
  Abstract: The construction of a public transit system in a large metropolitan area can relieve congestion, enhance mobility, and improve air quality. In a well-functioning housing market, these benefits will be reflected in housing prices. In this paper, we analyze transactions of apartments with elevators from 2007 and 2009 in Kaohsiung (Taiwan’s second largest city) to capture the impact of the opening in 2008 of a brand new mass rapid transit (MRT) system. Our data includes time on market information (TOM) so we combine a two stage least square model with a geographically weighted regression model to tackle the joint determination of price and TOM. Our results show that the opening of the MRT had a statistically significant and positive impact on the value of apartments with elevators. Moreover, accounting for TOM has a negligible impact on our results, which suggests that this information may not be necessary to perform hedonic studies of the housing market.
  Authors: Saphores, Jean-Daniel Maurice; Yeh, Chung Cheng
  Authors: Saphores, Jean-Daniel Maurice; Yeh, Chung Cheng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-5256
• Modeling Bike Share Station Activity: Effects of Nearby Businesses and Jobs on Trips to and from Stations
  Abstract: Bike sharing systems have been established in several cities across North America. An objective of all bike sharing programs is to maximize the number of trips to and from bike share stations. The purpose of this research is to identify correlates of bike station activity, with special emphases on the association of trips to and from bike stations with the number of nearby businesses and jobs. Using data on 2011 trips from Nice Ride stations in Minneapolis-St. Paul, we introduce three ordinary least square regression models to evaluate the marginal effects of the presence of businesses on annual total station trips, trip origins and trip destinations. Our models include 19 variables in four general categories, including, in addition to the presence of different types of businesses and jobs, sociodemographic, built environment, and transportation infrastructure variables that are used as controls. Our result shows the number of trips at Nice Ride stations is positively and significantly associated with food-related destinations near the station and job accessibility but not with general retail establishments. Use of bike share stations also is correlated with race, age, proximity to the central business district, proximity to water, accessibility to trails, and distance to other bike share stations. This research is important for planners, academics, and policymakers because the findings will facilitate the understanding of bike share operations, help planners locate new stations, evaluate the potential of implementing new bike share programs, assess economic activity associated with bike share trips, and minimize costs of operations.
  Authors: Wang, Xize; Lindsey, Greg; Schoner, Jessica E.; Harrison, Andrew
  Authors: Wang, Xize; Lindsey, Greg; Schoner, Jessica E.; Harrison, Andrew
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4593
• Seeking Alternative Transportation Financing Approaches in Massachusetts: Vehicle-Miles-Traveled Fee as a Supplement to Fuel Tax
  Abstract: State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) today are seeking financing alternatives so that transportation infrastructure investments can become less dependent on the amount of fuel U.S. drivers consume. Because the fuel tax in its current form is no longer viewed by many as a sustainable and stable option, other financing alternatives are being considered. One such alternative includes the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) fee. Examples of such VMT fee alternatives include: 1) collection using an onboard diagnostic system (OBD); 2) collection at the fuel pump using an OBD in conjunction with GPS technology; and 3) collection at a vehicle inspection station using the OBD. The primary objective of this paper is to evaluate these three VMT fee alternatives in terms of their benefits, challenges, and suitability for consideration in Massachusetts. A major conclusion is that a fuel tax, if increased and indexed to inflation, is a viable short term financing approach and that a VMT fee should be considered further as part of a long term strategy. It is expected that the results of this research will be of interest to State DOT personnel and policy makers seeking new financing approaches and revenue streams to support transportation investments.
  Authors: Costa, Ashley L; Plotnikov, Michael; Collura, John
  Authors: Costa, Ashley L; Plotnikov, Michael; Collura, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4654
• Research Needs for Virginia Transportation Public-Private Partnership Policy
  Abstract: The focus of this study is to address research needs for transportation public-private partnership (P3) policy within the context of Virginia. The discussion begins examining the definition of P3s, an overview of P3 project implementation in the U.S., legislative factors and value for money analysis. Then, the research needs for Virginia transportation P3 policy are reviewed, using the Capital Beltway High Occupancy Toll lane (HOT lane) project as an example case study. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy research needs.
  Authors: Daito, Nobuhiko; Chen, Zhenhua; Gifford, Jonathan L.
  Authors: Daito, Nobuhiko; Chen, Zhenhua; Gifford, Jonathan L.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-4898
• Investigating the Role of Frequent Flyer Membership in Context of Passenger Itinerary Choice
  Abstract: Air passenger itinerary choice has been studied from different perspectives, such as airport preferences in multi-airport regions and desired departure times . However, there lacks a comprehensive study of Frequent Flyer Program (FFP) membership and its influence on itinerary choices. This paper presents two discrete choice models to investigate the role of FFP membership on the itinerary choice. First, a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model is estimated and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for FFP is derived for various groups of travelers based on income and trip purpose. The results suggest a wide range of WTP values for flying on an FFP airline for different travelers. After taking FFP membership into account, there is little differentiation between the legacy carrier airlines, suggesting that they are viewed by passengers as a commodity. Finally, a mixed logit model is estimated to further capture the preference heterogeneity for FFP airlines beyond the discrete socio-demographic divisions in the MNL model. Lognormal distributions and normal distributions are used for the FFP coefficients and the airline coefficients respectively. = A full covariance matrix is estimated to capture the distribution in preferences across the population. Continuous WTP distributions are calculated for each income and trip purpose group. The results show that non-business travelers typically have a very low WTP to fly on an FFP airline, but business travelers, particularly those with high incomes, reveal very large estimates for WTP. A median WTP of $250 is found for high income business travelers with elite FFP memberships. Our estimates for WTP for flying with an FFP airline are much larger than those in previous literature, particularly for travelers with elite FFP membership status.
  Authors: Seelhorst, Michael; Liu, Yi
  Authors: Seelhorst, Michael; Liu, Yi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5294
• Public Perceptions and Preferences towards a VMT Fee System in Nevada
  Abstract: A number of barriers are associated with the implementation and deployment of a Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) system, ranging from technology issues to public acceptance. Technologically related barriers are easier to address compared to publicly related barriers. In addition, addressing technological barriers requires explicit consideration of the public attitudes and preferences towards various technological options. This paper studies public perceptions and preferences towards a VMT system in Nevada. A survey questionnaire was developed to capture these perception and preferences. A series of discrete choice models – including ordered, probit, and logit models – were tested to determine the best model to use for evaluating the results of the survey. Multinomial logit models provided the best explanatory power. Modeling assumptions were tested to ensure adequate results. The model provided a number of interesting insights about public perceptions and preferences regarding the VMT system. Based on these insights, some policy recommendations are provided.
  Authors: Nordland, Andrew; Paz, Alexander; Khan, Alauddin
  Authors: Nordland, Andrew; Paz, Alexander; Khan, Alauddin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-2215
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Benefits and Costs of Electric Vehicles for Public Finance: Integrated Valuation Model and Application to France
  Abstract: The upcoming launch of electric vehicles has financial impact on the public budget of a given country. Replacing a combustion engine vehicle by an electric vehicle entails fiscal effects not only due to announced supportive policy measures but also due to industrial factors that reflect changes in the manufacturing of a vehicle and in the provision of products and services throughout the vehicle’s operating life. Existing financial analyses have so far either only focused on the ‘obvious’, direct financial impacts resulting from policy measures, or have taken a socio-economic welfare approach incorporating environmental costs and benefits. Industrial factors have, to our knowledge, been left aside so far. This study delivers an exhaustive economic analysis taking all direct and indirect financial impacts of the introduction of electric vehicles on the public budget into account. Direct impacts refer to financial transfers due to subsidies and tax breaks. Indirect impacts refer to industrial factors which entail implications for i) the employment situation and therefore for salaries, social contributions by employers and employees and unemployment benefits and ii) tax revenues on the consumption side (VAT) and the production side. The valuation method is based on an input-output model of the productive economy, combined with mechanisms of fiscal and social transfer. The methodology is applied to France. Scenarios that vary assumptions on whether vehicle manufacturing and usage is taking place in- or outside the country are developed and analysed by their fiscal impact on the public budget.
  Authors: Windisch, Elisabeth; Leurent, Fabien M.
  Authors: Windisch, Elisabeth; Leurent, Fabien M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-2521
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Study on Toll-Pricing Strategies for Managing Transportation Facilities in Design-Build-Finance-Operate Partnerships
  Abstract: In recent years, transportation planning has been challenged by increasing need for infrastructure development, a shortfall of revenue from the public sector, and political trending towards deregulation of transportation infrastructure development. These factors have led to increased interest in the privatization of transportation infrastructure and the development of public-private partnerships, such as Design Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO). Although the overall goal of a transportation infrastructure project is to provide safe, reliable transportation systems for the public, the parties involved in public-private partnerships take different roles and responsibilities. The public sector leads in laying out the terms and standards to regulate the obligations between the State DOTs and private entities. The private sector makes capital investment to provide agreed services as well as to assume various investment risks, including project operational and financial risks. Toll pricing strategies are a key component for the public sector to regulate operation of a PPP facility and for the private sector to control investment risks. This paper investigates the applicability of deterministic dynamic optimization models for determining toll-pricing strategies that can help improve mobility, reduce the overall cost of motorists, and attract the investment from the private sector. A case study of a DBFO project was carried out. The results showed that the proposed model provides a useful tool for both public and private sectors to make more informed decisions, including the study of optimal strategies to seek the investment return and the determination of the predefined contract regulations.
  Authors: Wu, Hui; Zhang, Zhanmin
  Authors: Wu, Hui; Zhang, Zhanmin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-2865
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Implementing Marginal-Cost Vehicle Mileage Fees on Maryland Statewide Road Network
  Abstract: Vehicle mileage fees or similar user-based road charge could be an effective supplement or replacement of the current fuel tax on the nation’s highways and bridges. At the same time, properly structured mileage fee systems may help transportation professionals and officials at all levels address prominent issues such as funding gap, traffic congestion, and emissions. In theory, vehicles should be assessed a user fee equivalent to the full marginal cost not already borne by the users. This paper first estimates the full marginal cost of auto and truck travel in different time periods on all roadways in Maryland, and evaluates the impacts of such marginal-cost vehicle-miles-traveled fees (VMT fees) on travel behavior, revenue generation, equity, pollution, and GHG emissions both in Maryland and in the surrounding States of Delaware, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia (DC). Results show that with consideration of all driving externalities, the marginal-cost VMT fee for auto (truck) travel in Maryland during peak periods ranges from 0.20~12.16 (3.91~45.33) cents/mile. Compared to the existing revenue policy, the marginal-cost VMT fee can reduce overall vehicle miles traveled by 7.65% in the multi-state region covered by the quantitative model, by 7.81% just in Maryland. In addition, air pollution and GHG emissions in Maryland can be reduced by 7.62% to 9.42% by pollutant type. Total revenue generation would increase by about 168% from that under the existing revenue policy (including fuel taxes and sporadic bridge/roadway tolls). In terms of income equity, the middle-income group would be hurt the most with the largest consumer surplus decrease, while the highest income group is hurt the least. Results also indicate that the proposed marginal-cost VMT fee in Maryland can affect the neighboring states to varying degrees. For instance, vehicle miles traveled reduction ranges from 0.02% to 1.35% in the neighboring four states and DC, and their revenue generation changes by -1.48% to 0.15%.
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yijing
  Authors: Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yijing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3171
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Economic Assessment of Public Rest Areas and Traveler Information Centers on Limited-Access Freeways
  Abstract: Public rest areas located along limited access freeways throughout the United States allow quick access and free 24-hour availability to basic amenities, such as parking and restrooms. The recent economic downturn has made it increasingly difficult for state agencies to maintain a network of rest areas, forcing many states to consider downsizing services or closing facilities. Although rest areas provide many intrinsic benefits to motorists, the safety and economic impacts associated with rest areas and traveler information centers have proven to be difficult to quantify. A benefit/cost analysis methodology was developed for public rest areas and traveler information centers located on limited access freeways. This methodology considered a broad range of benefits associated with public rest areas, including travel diversion savings, comfort and convenience benefits, and crash reductions. Increased tourism spending was also considered for traveler information centers. The costs were almost exclusively related to those incurred by the agency, which included construction, rehabilitation, operation, and routine maintenance. The methodology was demonstrated using data provided by the Michigan Department of Transportation. The benefit/cost ratio for the 58 Michigan public rest areas on limited access freeways ranged from 1.24 to 5.89 with an average of 3.36. The benefit/cost ratio for the nine traveler information centers ranged from 1.10 to 7.02 with an average of 4.00. A majority of the overall benefits for standard rest areas originated from a combination of comfort/convenience for patrons (i.e., the “value” to users) and a reduction of fatigue-related crashes, which were estimated at slightly greater than two crashes reduced per facility per year. Additional wages, benefits, and tax revenue resulting from increased tourism spending comprised a large portion of the benefits estimated for traveler information centers. As the estimated benefits were strongly correlated with annual utilization of the facility, the facilities with the highest B/C ratios included heavily utilized facilities located on the primary freeway routes. Those with the lowest B/C ratios were underutilized facilities with high operation and/or maintenance costs.
  Authors: Gates, Timothy J.; Savolainen, Peter Tarmo; Datta, Tapan K.; Todd, Ryan G.
  Authors: Gates, Timothy J.; Savolainen, Peter Tarmo; Datta, Tapan K.; Todd, Ryan G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3257
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Do State Public-Private Partnership Enabling Laws Affect Investment in Infrastructure?
  Abstract: A growing number of U.S. states and localities are pursing private investment in transportation infrastructure through public-private partnerships, or PPPs. As of late 2011, thirty states had enacted legislation enabling use of PPPs. This legislation clarifies such issues as the treatment of unsolicited PPP proposals, prior legislative approval of PPP contracts, and the mixing of public and private funds, among others. Using expert-weighting of thirteen key elements of PPP enabling laws, we develop an index reflecting the degree to which a state’s law is encouraging or discouraging of private investment. In previous work, we examined the factors that cause PPP enabling laws to be adopted, and that lead to more enabling laws. In this paper, we examine the effect of PPP enabling laws on the level of private infrastructure investment in a state. We control for a variety of factors in addition to the PPP laws in a state, and find that more favorable PPP enabling laws increases both design-build and more complex non-design build (mostly design-build-finance-operate) type of PPP contracts. We do not, however, find evidence that either more Design-Build projects or non-DB projects reduces traffic congestion as measured by the travel-time index, eliminating a potentially important source of endogeneity.
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond Richard; Wagner, Benjamin L.
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond Richard; Wagner, Benjamin L.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-1588
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Equity Evaluation of Fuel Tax per Gallon and VMT Fee
  Abstract: The widely suggested vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) fee is an alternative pricing option to the current state-of-practice, the fuel tax per gallon, that has drawn great attention by researchers and policymakers, particularly regarding its equity performance among various social groups. Using socioeconomic-, geographic-, and vehicle-specific attributes from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey, the authors identified which social subgroups would mostly be affected under each pricing option, via estimation of three-stage least squares (3SLS) models at the national level. The results showed that particular social subgroups, such as households (HHs) located in states with lower fuel taxation, operate vehicles of lower fuel efficiency at the HH level and thus shoulder a larger portion of the fuel tax. On the other hand, HHs such as those that own vehicles of higher fuel efficiency, or have a higher average income, generate more trips annually, and as such would have higher VMT at the HH level. The authors also examined whether the estimated national model may apply to a smaller level of analysis, for the state of Iowa. The results suggested that, despite the similarities, the development of distinct local models was statistically supported.
  Authors: Kastrouni, Eirini; Gkritza, Konstantina; Hallmark, Shauna
  Authors: Kastrouni, Eirini; Gkritza, Konstantina; Hallmark, Shauna
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-2826
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Economic Impact of Increased Congestion for Freight-Dependent Businesses in Washington State
  Abstract: Congestion in the transportation system causes freight dependant businesses to alter their business model to satisfy consumer demands under uncertain operational conditions. Wasted fuel, lost productivity, and reduced mobility on the urban road network cost the nation’s network users billions every year. Despite the magnitude of this cost, it is not in itself useful to inform public policy at the state level. Instead, transportation agencies need additional knowledge to understand how industries are impacted by congestion, what their likely response will be to increasing congestion, and the net impact of these industry responses to the economy.Data from a survey of freight dependant businesses and seven IMPLAN models were used to calculate the costs of congestion and estimate the annual economic impact of increased congestion for freight dependant businesses in the State of Washington. Responses from freight dependant businesses indicate that consumers would likely pay 60 to 80 percent of the increased cost of congestion. Ultimately, this means that consumers will pay higher prices for freight dependant goods and freight dependant businesses will spend more to provide those goods. The primary areas of increased cost for freight dependant businesses were identified as additional trucking costs and inventory costs. It is estimated that the consumer cost for a 20 percent congestion increase, 60 percent cost realization, in Washington State is $8.7 billion. The economic impact of this redistribution of wealth and inefficiency is a loss of $3.3 billion dollars in total output and over 27,000 jobs.
  Authors: Taylor, Justin; Casavant, Kenneth L.; Moore, Danna; Sage, Jeremy; Ivanov, Barbara A.
  Authors: Taylor, Justin; Casavant, Kenneth L.; Moore, Danna; Sage, Jeremy; Ivanov, Barbara A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 522
  Paper Number: 13-4243
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Benefit Transfer Approach to Evaluate Livability Benefits of Transit Projects in Benefit-Cost Analysis
  Abstract: The United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) is seeking to refine guidance to states and localities on Benefit Cost Analyses (BCA) methods. The purpose of the request is to improve the quality and consistency of transportation grant applications received by the Department, most recently under the Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) program. One of the heated topics regarding BCA methods is the estimation of livability benefits. People place a value on their assessment of the quality of life in an area, which can include a sense of overall attractiveness of the physical place and a sense of community cohesiveness. These aspects are significantly influenced by individuals’ mobility to and access in the surrounding communities. Economics practice has favored the estimation of these benefits through analyzing changes in property values, as this provides value capture evidence for policy makers to justify the investment. In particular this approach suggests the value of all the amenities generated by a transit project may be capitalized in the increased value of nearby properties, which after the improvement are located in place that is more ‘livable.’ This research connects consumer demand and value of livability through benefit transfer in a BCA framework. The importance of this work derives in part from the large effect that livability benefits can have on the economic evaluation of the project.
  Authors: Ko, Kate
  Authors: Ko, Kate
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-4459
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• General Framework for Evaluating Long-Term Leasing of Toll Roads: Case Study of Indiana I-90
  Abstract: One type of public-private partnerships (PPP), the long-term leasing of toll roads, is attracting greater attention of state governments since the two influential cases of Chicago Skyway and Indiana Toll Road in 2005 and 2006 respectively. In order to assist governments make appropriate decisions to enter PPPs that are in the best interest of taxpayers, this paper develops a general framework for evaluating the long-term leasing of toll roads. The two main decision criteria, the economic efficiency of privatization and the protection of public interest, are investigated. Economic efficiency is analyzed using an uncertainty-based Net Present Value (NPV). Further, a case study of the Indiana Toll Road lease is carried out. The NPV calculated using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that government is not likely to earn as much benefit as the upfront payment lease amount if it continued its in-house management of the toll road. Sensitivity analysis in terms of benefit and cost factors is also conducted. Further, a “break-even” analysis is conducted to examine the conditions under which the government would obtain as much benefit as it did from the privatization. Finally, the actions taken by the Indiana government attempting to protect the interest of Indiana citizens and toll road users are discussed.
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo; Bai, Qiang; Labi, Samuel; Sinha, Kumares C.
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo; Bai, Qiang; Labi, Samuel; Sinha, Kumares C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-4539
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Transit service, physical agglomeration, and productivity in US metropolitan areas
  Abstract: Public transit improvements could cause more clustered and higher-density employment and enable urban growth, giving rise to agglomeration economies by making labor markets more accessible, increasing information exchange, and facilitating industrial specialization. Using data on almost all metropolitan areas in the United States, we explicitly traced the links between transit service and multiple physical measures of agglomeration, and hence to wages and gross metropolitan product per capita. Doubling transit service levels (using measures such as total seat capacity) is associated with large increases in central city employment density and consequent wage increases ranging from 1.1 to 1.8 percent, or between $7 million and $12 billion yearly per metropolitan area depending on the size of the workforce and the starting average wage. Firms and households likely receive unanticipated benefits from transit-induced agglomeration, and current benefit-cost evaluations may underestimate the benefits of improving transit service.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.; Noland, Robert B.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.; Noland, Robert B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4710
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Are Transport Cost-Benefit Analyses Robust?
  Abstract: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is often used for evaluating transport investments. They often play an especially important role when many suggested investments need to be ranked against each other, for example in national investment planning. However, they are often questioned based on the claim that the ranking depends crucially on uncertain assumptions about the future, and on methodologically or ethically contestable trade-offs of different types of benefits relative to each other, for example travel time savings, traffic safety and emissions. This paper studies the robustness of CBA rankings with respect to two types of uncertainties: future climate policy and relative benefit valuations, using CBAs of 480 suggested road and rail investments in Sweden that have been shortlisted for possible inclusion in the national transport investment plan. First, the CBA ranking turns out to be surprisingly robust with respect to various assumptions regarding future climate policy. Even rather drastic assumptions, such as a doubled oil price, hardly affect investment ranking at all. Second, the CBA ranking also turns out to be robust to relative valuation of different types of benefits – person travel time savings, traffic safety, emissions and freight benefits. We also compare two sets of travel time valuations against each other, one of which differentiated with respect to mode and travel purpose and one which is not, again concluding that the investment ranking is hardly affected.
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Lundberg, Mattias
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Lundberg, Mattias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3620
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Retail Fuel Price Stabilization and Revenue Generation of Dynamic Taxation Policy
  Abstract: Over the past few years, the U.S. Highway Trust Fund (HTF) experienced shortfalls as transportation investments outpaced revenue contributed to the trust fund. Alternative revenue options are necessary to fill the shortfalls from gas tax revenue and keep up with the growing need to finance infrastructure. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), through its Leadership Initiative for Transportation Solvency, recently released a report—Road to Recovery: Transforming America’s Transportation— that proposed a new revenue mechanism to fully fund a reformed transportation program. It recommends that Congress couple a per-barrel oil fee with a variable, countercyclical gas tax. This paper discusses the dynamic impacts of CEIP’s revenue policy on household travel behavior, revenue generation for the federal trust fund, energy consumption, equity, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission/air pollution at the national level from 2008 to 2010. Our analysis develops econometric models, such as multiple VMT regression model and discrete vehicle ownership model. The model assumes no pass-through of the upstream oil security fee, paid by the oil producer or importer, to the consumer. Model results show that the CEIP revenue proposal has the potential to fill the revenue shortfall regardless of the world oil price. During the recent historic study period of 2008-2010, the CEIP policy would collect up to more than double the federal revenue. At the same time, households would increase their vehicle miles travel by as much as 1.8% when oil prices peak, and reduce their vehicle miles travel by up to 8.6% when the crude oil price drops to the lowest point. Over the study period, the policy could counteract the potential of slight regressivity if a portion of the extra revenues raised were reinvested in transit and other auto alternatives or recycled back to lower-income households. We estimate that, without such investments or revenue recycling, lower-income households would experience a 0.45%-0.5% reduction in consumer surplus changes measured as a percentage of income, while higher-income households experience a 0.06% to 0.1% reduction. Finally, the CEIP policy is estimated to reduce air pollution and GHG emission by an average 4% to 4.35% for different pollutant types.
  Authors: Lu, Yijing; Zhang, Lei; Tsay, Shin-pei; Zhu, Yiwen
  Authors: Lu, Yijing; Zhang, Lei; Tsay, Shin-pei; Zhu, Yiwen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3158
• Aggregating VMT Within Predefined Geographic Zones by Cellular Assignment: Non-GPS-Based Approach to Mileage-Based Road Use Charging
  Abstract: Currently, most of the costs associated with operating and maintaining the roadway infrastructure are paid for by revenue collected from the motor fuel use tax. As fuel efficiency and the use of alternative fuel vehicles increases, alternatives to this funding method must be considered. One such alternative is to assess mileage based user fees (MBUF) based on the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) aggregated within the predetermined geographic areas, or travel zones, in which the VMT is generated. Most of the systems capable of this use Global Positioning Systems (GPS). However, GPS has issues with public perception, commonly associated with unwanted monitoring or tracking and is thus considered an invasion of privacy.The method proposed here utilizes cellular assignment, which is capable of determining a vehicle’s current travel zone, but is incapable of determining a vehicle’s precise location, thus better preserving user privacy. This is accomplished with a k-nearest neighbors (KNN) machine learning algorithm focused on the boundary of such travel zones.The primary experiment performed evaluates the accuracy of the algorithm at sample boundaries in and around the commercial business district of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The results show that with the training data available, the algorithm can correctly detect when a vehicle crosses a boundary to within ±2 city blocks, or roughly ±200 meters, and is thus capable of assigning the VMT to the appropriate zone. The findings imply that a cellular-based VMT system may successfully aggregate VMT by predetermined geographic travel zones without infringing on the drivers’ privacy.
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Donath, Max
  Authors: Davis, Brian; Donath, Max
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3170
• What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 3 of a National Survey
  Abstract: This paper summarizes the results of a national random-digit-dial public opinion poll that asked 1,519 respondents if they would support various tax options for raising federal transportation revenues, with a special focus on understanding support for increasing revenues for public transit. Eleven specific tax options tested were variations on raising the federal gas tax rate, creating a new mileage tax, and creating a new federal sales tax. Other questions probed various perceptions related to public transit, including knowledge and opinions about federal taxes to support transit. In addition, the survey collected data on standard socio-demographic factors, travel behavior (public transit usage, annual miles driven, and vehicle fuel efficiency), and attitudinal data about how respondents view the quality of their local transportation system and their priorities for government spending on transportation in their state. All of this information was used to assess support levels for the tax options among different population subgroups.
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha Weinstein; Nixon, Hilary; Murthy, Vinay
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha Weinstein; Nixon, Hilary; Murthy, Vinay
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-4941
• Emerging Strategies to Reduce Costs and Increase Public Acceptance of Mileage-Based User Fees
  Abstract: Inflation and improved fuel economy have undermined revenue from federal and state excise taxes on gasoline and diesel, making it challenging to maintain and expand the nation’s road network. With more stringent federal fuel economy standards and the emergence of alternative fuels threatening to accelerate this problem in future years, policymakers have begun to explore mileage-based user fees as a long-term replacement for fuel taxes. Unaffected by fuel type or fuel economy, mileage fees would provide more sustainable revenue, and the system could be structured to promote more efficient use of the roads, offer value-added motorist services, and collect travel data to support better network planning and operations. Mileage fees will likely cost more to administer than fuel taxes, however, and the concept faces acceptance challenges related to privacy protection and other concerns. These obstacles in turn have spurred great innovation. Drawing on recent studies, trials, and implementation efforts, we review a set of promising mileage-fee design and implementation strategies intended to reduce system costs and foster greater public acceptance.
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul; Ecola, Liisa; Wachs, Martin
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul; Ecola, Liisa; Wachs, Martin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Finance; Policy; Economics
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-1381
• Empirical Investigation of Measurement of Land Use Mix in the Context of Public Transport Demand
  Abstract: Numerous studies have examined the link between the mixing of land uses and travel behaviour, operationalizing land use mix in diverse ways. However, few studies have attempted to compare the various land use mix metrics employed in travel behaviour research. In particular, an empirical model of travel demand that tests the wide range of measures used in past studies is, to our knowledge, absent in the literature. In this paper, we estimate a model for public transport trip frequency in London, in which we apply a number of distinct land use mix measures. We define land use mix both in terms of counts of establishments and land area to further investigate whether the unit of measurement of land uses affects model results. We find that, although not all measures applied are significant in explaining public transport demand, elasticities for measures that are significant in the model are comparable. Moreover, model results allow us to draw some general conclusions regarding the suitability of different metrics in the context of public transport demand.
  Authors: Karathodorou, Niovi; Graham, Daniel
  Authors: Karathodorou, Niovi; Graham, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-1759
• Policy Analysis Using PECAS Framework
  Abstract: The PECAS land use and transportation interaction model of Baltimore MD has been simplified and modified for demonstration purposes. The resulting Demo Model was run to analyze four policies: 1) provision of new crosstown inner city road infrastructure, 2) increase in government activity and employment, 3) public housing development, and 4) mobile source carbon tax. Different types of model outputs are shown and compared between scenarios, including calculation of consumer surplus benefits (for comparison against costs), industrial and household location, space development and rents, wages, labor production and consumption, travel cost and travel composite utilities. The examples show some of the diverse types of analysis possible with a PECAS model and the ways that a land use and transportation interaction model can promote complete policy discussion and holistic planning.
  Authors: Abraham, John; Hunt, John Douglas; Fuenmayor, Geraldine
  Authors: Abraham, John; Hunt, John Douglas; Fuenmayor, Geraldine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4246
• Does TOD Need the T? Auto use, residential sorting, and access to rail
  Abstract: Smart growth planning often focuses on building new housing near rail stations, on the assumption that transit-oriented development can reduce driving and therefore mitigate climate change, pollution and congestion. But research has rarely investigated how transit-oriented development affects auto use—or asked whether new development should be oriented away from autos, rather than toward rail. This study addresses two questions. First, do households choosing new housing near rail stations have different patterns of auto ownership and use? Second, are those differences a result of rail access, or other factors associated with rail access? Previous studies have not used comparable data to compare nearby and farther away housing units; have lacked data on parking supply; have not controlled for characteristics of the housing itself, particularly the age of the housing; and have generally failed to account for how residential choices may affect TOD housing outcomes. I surveyed over 1,100 households within two miles of ten rail stations, and conducted a field count of over 6,200 on-street parking spaces on 818 block faces near the stations. The household survey collected information on housing characteristics, parking, travel, and household demographics as well as stated residential choice criteria to control for heterogeneity in preferences. The survey data were geocoded and joined to on-street parking supply data and other spatial data from secondary sources. I used regression analysis to examine how housing, parking, neighborhood and subregional spatial characteristics are correlated with automobile ownership, commuting, and grocery trips. Auto ownership and use is much lower among households living in new housing near rail stations, but these differences are not explained by rail access. Off- and on-street parking availability, housing type and tenure, local and subregional density, and bus service are much more highly correlated with residential choices and subsequent auto ownership and travel. Rail access is associated with lower auto use when combined with factors like parking supply and housing type, but rail by itself has little explanatory power. I conclude that the details of TOD matter, and some of the things that “work” about TOD have little or nothing to do with rail access by itself. Planners should broaden efforts to develop dense, mixed-use housing beyond rail station areas. Denser housing development coupled with good management of automobile parking and improved bus service could be more effective, and less expensive, than a development policy oriented around rail stations.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-5164
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Combined Effects of Compact Development, Transportation Investments, and Road User Pricing on Vehicle Miles Traveled in Urbanized Areas
  Abstract: The new federal surface transportation act, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21), passed by Congress and signed into law by the president in July 2012 advances several goals, including improving safety, reducing traffic congestion, and “minimizing transportation-related fuel consumption and air pollution” (Section 1201:134, p. 278). All of the above depend on vehicle miles traveled or VMT. Previous studies have analyzed the impact of compact development, transportation investments, and highway user costs on VMT. This study expands on previous work, using more recent data, additional metrics, and structural equation modeling to explain VMT levels of urbanized areas and to test the effects of various policy and planning levers. 
  Authors: Ewing, Reid; Hamidi, Shima; Nelson, Arthur C.; Grace, James B.
  Authors: Ewing, Reid; Hamidi, Shima; Nelson, Arthur C.; Grace, James B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-5230
• Beyond the Built Environment at Home: Does Compact Development Along Commuting Routes Reduce Driving and Conserve Fuel?
  Abstract: While extensive research has investigated how the built environment near people’s homes and work places influence automobile travel behavior, little is known about how commuting routes affect travel outcomes. This article presents an empirical study of the influences of the built environment along commuting routes on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption for non-work automobile travel. Using a unique Global Positioning Systems (GPS) dataset collected from automobile trips of 46 drivers from the Southeast Michigan area over a 30 day time frame, this study identifies the actual commuting routes for all drivers and derives their fuel consumption for non-work travel. The results do not support the contention that commuting routes characterized by more compact and mixed-use development have the effect of reducing non-work VMT and fuel consumption. This study is unique in its focus on the commuting routes and in establishing a method for using GPS data in transportation and land-use research, and it offers suggestions for refining the modeling of travel behavior along commuting routes.
  Authors: Wang, Xiaoguang; Grengs, Joe; Kostyniuk, Lidia P.
  Authors: Wang, Xiaoguang; Grengs, Joe; Kostyniuk, Lidia P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-0107
• Do Residents of Smart Growth Neighborhoods in Los Angeles Travel “Smarter”?
  Abstract: Using individual trip diary from the recent 2009 National Household Travel Survey, we study the impact of different aspects of smart growth patterns on commute mode choice, daily work travel mode choice and non-work travel mode choice for individuals living in different neighborhoods in the Los Angels MSA. We include socioeconomic measures of smart growth in our models, in addition to the commonly used physical smart growth development patterns (i.e. built environment). Model results consistently show that the transportation infrastructure diversity and quality is the most important aspect of smart growth patterns that has a substantial effect on commute mode choice, daily work and non-work travel mode choice. Moreover, housing mix in a neighborhood increases the likelihood of choosing walking/cycling for daily work trips and daily non-work trips. Socioeconomic diversity of a neighborhood reduces the likelihood of choosing walking/cycling for daily non-work trips. After taking into account these three indices, the rest two indices--residential density and mixed land use--only have insignificant impact on travel mode choice. Overall, people living in smart growth neighborhoods in Los Angeles do travel “smarter”, in terms of using environmentally more sustainable (bus and train) and healthier (walking and cycling) travel modes.
  Authors: Zhu, Pengyu; Dong, Hongwei
  Authors: Zhu, Pengyu; Dong, Hongwei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-3476
• Job-Worker and Income Balance in the United States
  Abstract: Across the country, one of the main reasons commuter trip lengths are increasing and traffic conditions are deteriorating is because people do not, or cannot, live near their jobs. The physical distance between the location of jobs and appropriate housing can be significant. Often the only feasible alternative for workers who cannot work from home is to commute by car to their job location. Congested freeways and rush hours provide ample evidence of this spatial separation. When jobs and housing are located in close proximity, the need for long commutes may be reduced. This study uses journey-to-work data from metropolitan census tracts across the country to investigate whether people’s choices to live and work in an area is related to the presence of jobs, or whether it is related to the type of job. Ordinary least squares regression is used to generate a model that relates the number of people who live and work in the same area to the earned wages of resident and nonresident workers, as well as the number of resident workers to non-resident workers. The results indicate that more people who live and work in the same area if there is a balance between earned wages of resident and non-resident workers. This model fits the data better than previously published models that relate travel outcomes to jobs and housing. Since metropolitan census tracts from across the nation were used, the models derived from this research should be widely generalizable. This research provides planners the capability to predict how employment and housing affect whether people can live and work in the same area.
  Authors: Stoker, Philip; Ewing, Reid
  Authors: Stoker, Philip; Ewing, Reid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-1522
• What to Expect in 2030: Impacts of Fuel Price and Fuel Economy on Land Use and Transportation
  Abstract: The cost of travel, which depends highly on fuel prices, can have a significant impact on the allocation of land uses, the amount of travel, the modes chosen for travel and the routes drivers select in a region. With the volatility of energy prices over the past several decades, the growing instability of energy supply both domestic and foreign, and ever growing demand, it is difficult to predict what fuel prices will be in the future. To begin to grapple with such uncertainty, planners must understand the potential future impacts of energy prices. With knowledge of these impacts, better planning can be achieved to accommodate the likely outcomes. This paper investigates the impacts of increased fuel prices on future transportation system performance utilizing an integrated land use and transportation model. The developed scenarios build on national macro-economic forecasts of changes in household and employment allocations with future transportation network improvements and modeled in a multi-state integrated land use and transportation model for year 2030 in the Capital Mega-region area. The scenarios are designed such that both the impacts of fuel prices and resulting vehicle fuel economy on land use and travel behavior are captured. The model results show that increased fuel prices and fuel economy have a significant impact on land use and travel patterns. Increased fuel prices lead to a denser land use pattern and a reduction in automobile mode share and vehicle miles traveled even though fuel economy increases. The reduction is less pronounced if fuel economy increases significantly.
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi; Welch, Timothy F.; Knaap, Gerrit; Ducca, Frederick
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi; Welch, Timothy F.; Knaap, Gerrit; Ducca, Frederick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4330
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Agglomeration, Accessibility, and Productivity: Evidence for Urbanized Areas in the United States
  Abstract:

  This paper undertakes an empirical analysis with the aim of improving the current understanding of the relationship between labor productivity and urban agglomeration economies across a sample of urbanized areas in the US. Agglomeration economies are represented with driving time measures of employment accessibility to establish a direct account for the link between transport and agglomeration economies. The paper investigates the presence of nonlinearities in the relationship between labor productivity and agglomeration economies, and examines the spatial decay pattern of the effects arising from this relationship. The findings indicate that there is considerable nonlinearity in the relation between productivity and transport induced agglomeration effects, implying that the estimation of country-level aggregate elasticities is likely to misrepresent the actual magnitude of any productivity gains from urban agglomeration. The results also suggest that the magnitude of the productivity-agglomeration effects decays very rapidly with time and is very strong within 20 minutes driving time. This suggests that knowledge spillover externalities are likely to be a very important Marshallian source of agglomeration economies.

  Authors: Melo, Patricia C.; Graham, Daniel; Levinson, David M.; Aarabi, Sarah
  Authors: Melo, Patricia C.; Graham, Daniel; Levinson, David M.; Aarabi, Sarah
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-1479
• Beyond the Built Environment at Home: Does Compact Development Along Commuting Routes Reduce Driving and Conserve Fuel?
  Authors: Wang, Xiaoguang
  Authors: Wang, Xiaoguang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-0107
• Do Variable-Pricing Strategies Influence Activity-Travel Patterns of Carsharing Users? Case Study
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: 13-1108
• Are Changed Living Arrangements Influencing Youth Driver License Decline?
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1284
• Are Changed Living Arrangements Influencing Youth Driver License Decline?
  Authors: Currie, Graham
  Authors: Currie, Graham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1284
• Agglomeration, Accessibility, and Productivity: Evidence for Urbanized Areas in the United States
  Authors: Melo, Patricia C.
  Authors: Melo, Patricia C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-1479
• Job-Worker and Income Balance in the United States
  Authors: Stoker, Philip
  Authors: Stoker, Philip
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-1522
• Transport Improvement, Agglomeration Effect, and Urban Productivity: Case Study of Chinese Cities
  Authors: Lin, Tan
  Authors: Lin, Tan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-0360
• Assessment of Determinants of Financial Innovations in Transportation Infrastructure
  Authors: Darani, Ali
  Authors: Darani, Ali
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-0662
• Comparison of Two Dynamic Transportation Models: Case of Stockholm Congestion Charging
  Authors: de Palma, Andre
  Authors: de Palma, Andre
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0760
• Comparison of Two Dynamic Transportation Models: Case of Stockholm Congestion Charging
  Authors: Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Authors: Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0760
• Auctions for Private Congestible Infrastructures
  Authors: van den Berg, Vincent
  Authors: van den Berg, Vincent
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-1823
• Transit-Oriented Development and Household Transportation Costs: Household-Level Analysis
  Authors: Zhou, Xin
  Authors: Zhou, Xin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-2197
• Evaluation of Impacts of Urban Road Pricing on Social and Spatial Inequalities
  Authors: Souche, Stephanie
  Authors: Souche, Stephanie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0898
• Putting Schools on the Map: Linking Transit-Oriented Development, Households with Children, and Schools
  Authors: Vincent, Jeffrey
  Authors: Vincent, Jeffrey
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1674
• Private Investment and Road Pricing: The Investment Public-Private Partnership
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-1087
• Emerging Strategies to Reduce Costs and Increase Public Acceptance of Mileage-Based User Fees
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul
  Authors: Sorensen, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-1381
• Do State Public-Private Partnership Enabling Laws Affect Investment in Infrastructure?
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond
  Authors: Geddes, Raymond
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-1588
• The Times Are They A-Changin'? Youth, Travel Mode, and the Journey to Work
  Authors: Taylor, Brian
  Authors: Taylor, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-1592
• Traffic Congestion's Economic Impacts: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2625
• Study on Toll-Pricing Strategies for Managing Transportation Facilities in Design-Build-Finance-Operate Partnerships
  Authors: Wu, Hui
  Authors: Wu, Hui
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-2865
• Retail Fuel Price Stabilization and Revenue Generation of Dynamic Taxation Policy
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3158
• Positive Model of Departure Time Choice Under Road Pricing and Uncertainty
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-3421
• Empirical Investigation of Measurement of Land Use Mix in the Context of Public Transport Demand
  Authors: Karathodorou, Niovi
  Authors: Karathodorou, Niovi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-1759
• Pareto-Improving Hybrid Policy for Transportation Networks
  Authors: Song, Ziqi
  Authors: Song, Ziqi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-1809
• Economic Impact of Highway Investment at the Metropolitan Level: Empirical Analysis with Considerations for Induced Demand and Induced Supply
  Authors: He, Xiang
  Authors: He, Xiang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2390
• Traveler Response to Co-present Multiple Pricing Schemes: Results of an Elaborated Mixture-Amount Experiment
  Authors: Khademi, Elaheh
  Authors: Khademi, Elaheh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-1966
• Aggregating VMT Within Predefined Geographic Zones by Cellular Assignment: Non-GPS-Based Approach to Mileage-Based Road Use Charging
  Authors: Davis, Brian
  Authors: Davis, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-3170
• Who Knows About Kids These Days? Analyzing Determinants of Youth and Adult Mobility Between 1990 and 2009
  Authors: Ralph, Kelcie
  Authors: Ralph, Kelcie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 717
  Paper Number: 13-3214
• Do Residents of Smart Growth Neighborhoods in Los Angeles Travel "Smarter"?
  Authors: Zhu, Pengyu
  Authors: Zhu, Pengyu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-3476
• Policy Analysis Using PECAS Framework
  Authors: Abraham, John
  Authors: Abraham, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4246
• Effects of Dubai Metro on Residential Property Values
  Authors: Mohammad, Sara
  Authors: Mohammad, Sara
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-3005
• Public Perceptions and Preferences towards a VMT Fee System in Nevada
  Authors: Paz, Alexander
  Authors: Paz, Alexander
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-2215
• Comparing Public-Private Partnerships with Traditional Procurement: Incorporating Considerations from Benefit-Cost Analysis
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: 13-3014
• Risk-Based Two-Stage Optimization Model for Optimal Highway Transportation Investment Decision Making
  Authors: Li, Zongzhi
  Authors: Li, Zongzhi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4044
• Dynamic Road Pricing for Revenue Maximization: Modeling Framework and Solution Methodology
  Authors: Abdelghany, Khaled
  Authors: Abdelghany, Khaled
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-4118
• What to Expect in 2030: Impacts of Fuel Price and Fuel Economy on Land Use and Transportation
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi
  Authors: Erdogan, Sevgi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-4330
• Real-World Test of Road User Fees: Evaluating Minnesota's Mileage-Based User Fee Test
  Authors: Rephlo, Jennifer
  Authors: Rephlo, Jennifer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: 13-4492
• Rural Highway Expansion and Economic Development: Impacts on Private Earnings and Employment
  Authors: Iacono, Michael
  Authors: Iacono, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-4701
• Transit Service, Physical Agglomeration, and Productivity in U.S. Metropolitan Areas
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-4710
• Using the Real Estate Market to Establish Light Rail Station Catchment Areas: Case Study of Attached Residential Property Values in Salt Lake County with Respect to Light Rail Station Distance
  Authors: Petheram, Susan
  Authors: Petheram, Susan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-4771
• What Do Americans Think About Federal Tax Options to Support Public Transit, Highways, and Local Streets and Roads? Results from Year 3 of a National Survey
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha
  Authors: Agrawal, Asha
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 643
  Paper Number: 13-4941
• Transit and Access to Jobs in Competitive Clusters
  Authors: Tilahun, Nebiyou
  Authors: Tilahun, Nebiyou
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 691
  Paper Number: 13-5062
• Combined Effects of Compact Development, Transportation Investments, and Road User Pricing on Vehicle Miles Traveled in Urbanized Areas
  Authors: Ewing, Reid
  Authors: Ewing, Reid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-5230
• Perceived Neighborhood Environment and Transit Use in Low-Income Populations
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Society
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-5235
• General Framework for Evaluating Long-Term Leasing of Toll Roads: Case Study of Indiana I-90
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: 13-4539
• Demand Shifts and Observed Effects on Traffic Operation as a Result of Congestion Pricing Implementation on San Francisco Bay Bridge
  Authors: Du, Yaoqiong
  Authors: Du, Yaoqiong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-4672
• Does TOD Need the T? Auto use, residential sorting, and access to rail
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Authors: Chatman, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 453
  Paper Number: 13-5164
• Economic Impact of Increased Congestion for Freight-Dependent Businesses in Washington State
  Authors: Casavant, Kenneth
  Authors: Casavant, Kenneth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 522
  Paper Number: 13-4243
• Time on Market and Impact of Mass Rapid Transit System on Residential Property Values: Case of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
  Authors: Saphores, Jean-Daniel
  Authors: Saphores, Jean-Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 790
  Paper Number: 13-5256
• Transportation Impacts of New Gas Developments
  Authors: Tolliver, Denver
  Authors: Tolliver, Denver
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Freight Transportation
  Session: 442
  Paper Number: P13-5613
• Public Benefits Resulting from Public Fund Investments in Private Freight Rail Projects
  Authors: Ludlow, Donald
  Authors: Ludlow, Donald
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 522
  Paper Number: P13-5617
• Describing the Benefits of HSR Panel
  Authors: Quinn, Patricia
  Authors: Quinn, Patricia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7123
• Status of International HSR Programs
  Authors: Romo, Eduardo
  Authors: Romo, Eduardo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7124
• Status of International HSR Programs
  Authors: Franca, Helio
  Authors: Franca, Helio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7124
• Design and Operational Integration of HSR Panel
  Authors: Kick, Armin
  Authors: Kick, Armin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7122
• Describing the Benefits of HSR Panel
  Authors: Galloway, Andrew
  Authors: Galloway, Andrew
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7123
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: White, Karen
  Authors: White, Karen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: Z13-196
• U.S. Manufacturing: What Can the Past Reveal About the Future?
  Authors: Laney, Karen
  Authors: Laney, Karen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 476
  Paper Number: P13-6902
• The Interdependency of Transportation Systems and National Competitiveness
  Authors: Bingham, Paul
  Authors: Bingham, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 476
  Paper Number: P13-6915
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: White, Karen
  Authors: White, Karen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 387
  Paper Number: Z13-387
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Neels, Kevin
  Authors: Neels, Kevin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Freight Transportation
  Session: 442
  Paper Number: Z13-442
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Bergeron, Nancy
  Authors: Bergeron, Nancy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 816
  Paper Number: Z13-816
• Current Macroeconomic Trends in the U.S. Economy
  Authors: Duncan, Douglas
  Authors: Duncan, Douglas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 476
  Paper Number: P13-7107
• Current Status of HSR in the United States
  Authors: Richard, Dan
  Authors: Richard, Dan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7119
• Panel: Unique HSR Challenges - The Front End
  Authors: Melaniphy, Michael
  Authors: Melaniphy, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7120
• Panel: Unique HSR Challenges - The Front End
  Authors: Haas, Peter
  Authors: Haas, Peter
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7120
• Panel: Unique HSR Challenges - The Front End
  Authors: Toliver, Paul
  Authors: Toliver, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7120
• Status of International HSR Programs
  Authors: Perl, Anthony
  Authors: Perl, Anthony
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7124
• Current Status of HSR in the United States
  Authors: Gardner, Stephen
  Authors: Gardner, Stephen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7119
• Financing HSR Panel
  Authors: Eckels, Judge Robert
  Authors: Eckels, Judge Robert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7121
• Financing HSR Panel
  Authors: Page, Sasha
  Authors: Page, Sasha
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7121
• Design and Operational Integration of HSR Panel
  Authors: Jenkins, Brian
  Authors: Jenkins, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7122
• Current Status of HSR in the United States
  Authors: Harnish, Rick
  Authors: Harnish, Rick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7119
• Describing the Benefits of HSR Panel
  Authors: Quandel, Charles
  Authors: Quandel, Charles
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7123
• Status of International HSR Programs
  Authors: Loubinoux, Jean-Pierre
  Authors: Loubinoux, Jean-Pierre
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Passenger Transportation
  Session: 145
  Paper Number: P13-7124
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Boast, Thomas
  Authors: Boast, Thomas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: Z13-178
• Techniques for Experimental Economics and Results from Minnesota Mileage-Based Road User Fee Study
  Authors: Pierce, Bennett
  Authors: Pierce, Bennett
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: P13-6250
• P3 Program Design and Decision Making: The Ohio Experience
  Authors: Riley, James
  Authors: Riley, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 537
  Paper Number: P13-6373
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Callender, Duane
  Authors: Callender, Duane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Railroad Industry Overview
  Authors: Keen, Dan
  Authors: Keen, Dan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Freight Transportation
  Session: 442
  Paper Number: P13-6340
• Examples from Engineering Economic Analysis Practices for Highway Investment, NCHRP Synthesis 424
  Authors: Markow, Michael
  Authors: Markow, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 522
  Paper Number: P13-6995
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Fanter, Edward
  Authors: Fanter, Edward
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Khan, Nasir
  Authors: Khan, Nasir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Sutherland, Willem
  Authors: Sutherland, Willem
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Sheehy, Robert
  Authors: Sheehy, Robert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: O'Brien, Kevin
  Authors: O'Brien, Kevin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Local Economic Development Strategies to Promote Logistics
  Authors: Steele, Chris
  Authors: Steele, Chris
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 784
  Paper Number: P13-5967
• It Pays to Do the Right Thing: Results from Transportation Behavioral Experiments from Bangalore, Singapore, and Stanford
  Authors: Prabhakar, Balaji
  Authors: Prabhakar, Balaji
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: P13-5983
• Experimental Techniques and Behavioral Results of Congestion Pricing in Atlanta, Georgia, and Orlando, Florida
  Authors: Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Authors: Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: P13-5984
• U.S. Federal Deficit and Debt: Ramifications for Future Economic Growth
  Authors: Brill, Alex
  Authors: Brill, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 476
  Paper Number: P13-6150
• Short Line Railroad Perspective on Changing Energy Markets
  Authors: Fischer, Ryan
  Authors: Fischer, Ryan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Economics; Freight Transportation
  Session: 442
  Paper Number: P13-5612
• Applying Benefit-Cost Analysis to Freight Project Selection: Lessons from the Corps of Engineers--Preliminary Findings of NCHRP 22
  Authors: Lambert, Bruce
  Authors: Lambert, Bruce
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Economics; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 522
  Paper Number: P13-5615
• Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Hands-on Introduction to Congestion Pricing Applications
  Authors: Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Authors: Rutstrom, Elisabet
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Deploying Transportation Research-Doing Things Smarter, Better, Faster
  Session: 196
  Paper Number: P13-5982
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: DiPrinzio, Raymond
  Authors: DiPrinzio, Raymond
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Sourcing Capital Funding with Banks and Bonds: Issues and Considerations in 2012 and 2013
  Authors: Mukani, Vinod
  Keywords: Public
  Authors: Mukani, Vinod
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Economics; Finance
  Session: 178
  Paper Number: P13-5824
• Highway Capital Expenditures and Induced Vehicle Travel
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-1568
• Implementing Marginal-Cost Vehicle Mileage Fees on Maryland Statewide Road Network
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Authors: Lu, Yijing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3171
• Economic Assessment of Public Rest Areas and Traveler Information Centers on Limited-Access Freeways
  Authors: Gates, Timothy
  Authors: Gates, Timothy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3257
• Comparison of Travel Time Indexes and Other Travel Time Reliability Measures Using Florida Freeway Spot Speed Data
  Authors: Jin, Li
  Authors: Jin, Li
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3338
• Analysis Framework for Designing Two-Device Checked Baggage Inspection Systems at Airports
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0132
• Financial Evaluation of Mileage-Based User Fee: State of Florida Case Study
  Authors: Al-Deek, Haitham
  Authors: Al-Deek, Haitham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0332
• Comparative Analysis of Road Financing Approaches in Europe and the United States
  Authors: Gomez, Juan
  Authors: Gomez, Juan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1147
• Addressing Two Issues in Airline Origin and Destination Survey
  Authors: Lee, Tao
  Authors: Lee, Tao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1280
• Minimizing the Impacts of Cost and Revenue Uncertainties on Transportation Project Delivery
  Authors: Redd, Larry
  Authors: Redd, Larry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1599
• Historical Review of Air Traffic Management System Concept of Operations
  Authors: Studic, Milena
  Authors: Studic, Milena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1972
• Equity Evaluation of Fuel Tax per Gallon and VMT Fee
  Authors: Kastrouni, Eirini
  Authors: Kastrouni, Eirini
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-2826
• Performance-Based Framework to Include Air Quality in Mileage-Based User Fees: Framework Structure
  Authors: Burris, Mark
  Authors: Burris, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3236
• Sources of Market Power in the Airline Industry: Panel Data Evidence from U.S. Airports
  Authors: Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Authors: Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3382
• Explanatory Power of Different Data Envelopment Analysis Models for Determining Airports' Cost Efficiency
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3459
• Low-Cost Airlines-Within-Airlines: Business Model Moving East
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3580
• Investigating the Truth of Heinrich's Pyramid in Offshore Helicopter Transportation
  Authors: Coutinho Nascimento, Felipe Augusto
  Authors: Coutinho Nascimento, Felipe Augusto
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3923
• A Region Divided: Campaign for 2012 Transportation Referendum in Atlanta, Georgia
  Authors: Paget-Seekins, Laurel
  Authors: Paget-Seekins, Laurel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4715
• Flight Time Predictability: Concepts, Metrics, and Impact on Scheduled Block Time
  Authors: Hao, Lu
  Authors: Hao, Lu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-4770
• Transportation Infrastructure, Industrial Productivity, and Return on Investment: A Spatial Spillover Approach
  Authors: Eloff, Jeffrey
  Authors: Eloff, Jeffrey
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-2812
• Eliciting Risk Attitudes from Route Choice over Simulated Driving Choices
  Authors: Harb, Rami
  Authors: Harb, Rami
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-3585
• Benefit Transfer Approach to Evaluate Livability Benefits of Transit Projects in Benefit-Cost Analysis
  Authors: Ko, Kate
  Authors: Ko, Kate
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics
  Session: 298
  Paper Number: 13-4459
• Creating an Air Traffic Analysis Structure to Support Forecasting
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0482
• Assessment of Social Dimensions of Sustainable Innovative Financing in Transportation Infrastructure Projects
  Authors: Darani, Ali
  Authors: Darani, Ali
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0664
• Transportation Infrastructure Funding with an Electrified Fleet
  Authors: Roberts, David
  Authors: Roberts, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0682
• Exploring the Feasibility of Using Airport Data in Real-Time Risk Assessment
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0834
• Seeking New Revenues to Finance Transportation Investments: Placing Tolls on Untolled Interstates and the Challenges of Estimating Changes in Demand
  Authors: Berliner, Rosaria
  Authors: Berliner, Rosaria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-3700
• Seeking Alternative Transportation Financing Approaches in Massachusetts: Vehicle-Miles-Traveled Fee as a Supplement to Fuel Tax
  Authors: Costa, Ashley
  Authors: Costa, Ashley
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-4654
• Fuel Tax Refund Policy and Process Review of States
  Authors: Chaudhari, Jaydeepkumar
  Authors: Chaudhari, Jaydeepkumar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1354
• Long-Term Motor Fuel Tax Revenue Projections in Georgia
  Authors: Cherry, Phillip
  Authors: Cherry, Phillip
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-1383
• Framework to Analyze Vehicle Miles Travelled Fee Implementation
  Authors: Vavrova, Marketa
  Authors: Vavrova, Marketa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-2915
• Funding Urban Transport in New York: Revenue Potential of VMT and Carbon Taxes in New York State
  Authors: Gordon, Cameron
  Authors: Gordon, Cameron
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-0443
• Congestion pricing and Inter-temporal Preferences Rate Integration in Social Welfare Function
  Authors: Guzman, Luis
  Authors: Guzman, Luis
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-0974
• Perception of Traffic Safety and Its Relation to Residents' Frequency of Outdoor Activities on Neighborhood Streets
  Authors: Dinh, Do
  Authors: Dinh, Do
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-1106
• Aging Demographics in Medium-Sized Cities: Case Study of Travel Behavior in Kamloops, Canada
  Authors: Harmon, Adam
  Keywords: scientific; research; template; custom; poster; presentation; symposium; printing; PowerPoint; create; design; example; sample; download
  Authors: Harmon, Adam
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-2101
• The P3 Potential
  Authors: Elgart, Zachary
  Authors: Elgart, Zachary
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-2971
• Key Considerations for States Seeking to Implement Public-Private Partnerships for New Highway Capacity
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: 13-3030
• Beyond the Average Elasticity: Applying Quantile Panel Regression to German Household Mobility Data
  Authors: Ritter, Nolan
  Authors: Ritter, Nolan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-3464
• Beijinger Life Aspirations and Implications for Transportation Planning
  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua
  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4158
• Modeling Bike Share Station Activity: Effects of Nearby Businesses and Jobs on Trips to and from Stations
  Authors: Wang, Xize
  Authors: Wang, Xize
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Society
  Session: 349
  Paper Number: 13-4593
• General Framework for Evaluating Long-Term Leasing of Toll Roads: Case Study of Indiana I-90
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo
  Authors: Zhang, Zhibo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5860
• Alaska's Experience with P3 Procurement
  Authors: Zofka, Ewa
  Authors: Zofka, Ewa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-6042
• Accessibility and Housing Price Resilience: Evidence from Limited-Access Roadways
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Authors: Concas, Sisinnio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 297
  Paper Number: 13-0193
• Cases in Congestion Resilience: Fostering High-Functioning Regional Economies Despite Gridlock
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance
  Session: 297
  Paper Number: 13-3706
• Minnesota's Transportation Economic Development Program: Using the Power of Partnerships to Deliver Job-Supporting Transportation Improvement Projects
  Authors: Shands, Matt
  Authors: Shands, Matt
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5848
• Surety and the P3 Contract Format
  Authors: Reid, Robena
  Authors: Reid, Robena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5859
• Private Activity Bonds and P3s
  Authors: Reid, Robena
  Authors: Reid, Robena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5873
• FHWA's Public-Private Partnership Programs and Roadmap
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5861
• Tools for Development of Public-Sector Comparator and P3 Shadow Bid for Value for Money Analysis
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5862
• Risk Assessment Tool for P3 Evaluation
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5864
• Financial Assessment Tool for P3 Evaluation
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Authors: DeCorla-Souza, Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 295
  Paper Number: P13-5866
• Perceived Neighborhood Environment and Transit Use in Low-Income Populations
  Abstract:

  Although much has been written about local access to public transport, few studies have examined the role of perceived environment in promoting transit by considering both those who use transit and those who do not. To address this issue, this study examined how travelers’ perception of neighborhood environment affects their travel behavior by analyzing three types of transit user: non-user, occasional user, and regular user. I developed a theoretical framework of travel behavior that incorporates neighborhood type, transit service, socio-economic status, and perception. A principal component analysis was used to reduce many overlapping perceptional variables to latent factors that represent perceptions about physical safety, personal safety, amenities and isolation. The main contribution of this research aims to understand how the effects of these perceptions differ by neighborhood type. To ascertain neighborhood type, this study measured urban-form features of each household’s neighborhood and then classified them using cluster analysis. These component variables of perception and neighborhood type were then used in subsequent models of transit use. The results of this study show that, in Los Angeles County, unfavorable perceptions of environmental conditions are related to decreased regular transit use; however these effects vary among different income groups and neighborhood types. Higher-income travelers are significantly affected by the physical attributes and perceived amenities factors of their neighborhoods. In contrast, low-income travelers are more likely to be affected by safety concerns. In particular, personal safety concerns are associated with decreased transit use in mixed land-use areas, while physical safety and isolation concerns are the significant deterrent to the use of public transportation in low-density areas. Findings suggest that we need policy actions that enhance public safety and improve neighborhoods’ walkability in order to increase the utility of transit for disadvantaged populations.

  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Society; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Economics
  Session: 823
  Paper Number: 13-5235
• Minnesota Mileage-Based User Fee Policy Task Force
  Abstract:

  Two national commissions have encouraged the development of a mileage-based charging system as a future alternative to the fuel tax. The State of Oregon has taken the lead in testing and moving toward a limited application of mileage-based user fees, and several other states have initiated demonstrations, surveys and policy studies. This paper presents the findings and recommendations from a 2011 policy task force study in Minnesota and discusses the lessons learned from this effort. The task force concluded that fairness was a primary reason for considering a mileage-based user fee system, not just raising revenue to fund future transportation infrastructure. As vehicles become more fuel-efficient, some vehicles are paying less per mile through the gas tax for transportation services than others, and some are paying nothing at all if they drive electric vehicles.

  Authors: Munnich, Lee W.; Doan, John Q.; Johnson, Cory J.
  Authors: Munnich, Lee W.; Doan, John Q.; Johnson, Cory J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Finance; Policy
  Session: 296
  Paper Number: 13-2753