2013 Subject Index: Planning and Forecasting

• Hybrid Models of Random Utility Maximization and Random Regret Minimization: Results from Two Empirical Studies
  Abstract: This paper shows how the co-existence of different decision rules can be accommodated in hybrid discrete choice-models. Specifically, the paper presents a generic hybrid model specification that allows for some attributes being processed using conventional linear-additive utility-maximization based rules, while others are being processed using regret-minimization based rules. We show that on two revealed and stated choice datasets hybrid models outperform – in terms of model fit – choice models where all attributes are assumed to be processed by means of one and the same decision rule. However, on our data differences between models are very small. Implications, in terms of marginal Willingness-to-Pay measures (WtP), are derived for the different hybrid model-specifications and applied in the context of the two datasets. It is found that in the context of our data hybrid WtP-measures differ substantially from conventional utility-based WtP-measures, and that the hybrid WtP-specifications allow for a richer, because choice set-specific, interpretation of the trade-offs that people make.
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Rose, John Matthew; Hensher, David A.
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Rose, John Matthew; Hensher, David A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 391
  Paper Number: 13-0085
• Travel Choice Models That Generate Preferences for Compromise Alternatives: Empirical Comparison
  Abstract: Compromise alternatives have an intermediate performance on each or most attributes rather than having a poor performance on some attributes and a strong performance on others. The relative popularity of compromise alternatives among decision-makers has been convincingly established in a wide range of decision contexts. We discuss three choice models that capture a potential preference for compromise alternatives. One approach, which is introduced in this paper, involves the construction of a so-called compromise variable which indicates to what extent (i.e., on how many attributes) a given alternative is a compromise alternative in its choice set. Another approach consists of the recently introduced random regret-model form, where the popularity of compromise alternatives emerges endogenously from the regret minimization-based decision rule. A third approach consists of the contextual concavity model, which is known for favoring compromise alternatives by means of a locally concave utility function. Estimation results on a stated route choice dataset show that, in terms of model fit and predictive ability, the contextual concavity and random regret models appear to perform better than the model that contains an added compromise variable.
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Bierlaire, Michel
  Authors: Chorus, Caspar; Bierlaire, Michel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-0086
• Experiment in Mega-Regional Road Pricing Using Advanced Commuter Behavior Analysis
  Abstract: Worsening highway congestion is a challenge to mega-regional competitiveness; and changing regional geographies and development location decisions, among other factors, demand that public policy responses go beyond traditional demand management approaches. Congestion pricing has been suggested as a remedy. In this article, we analyze the outcomes of multiple congestion pricing approaches for the Capital Mega-region that spans the following five Metropolitan Planning Organization regions: Washington (DC-MD-VA), Baltimore (MD), Wilmington (DE), Fredericksburg (VA), and Frederick (MD) and counties in adjoining states of NJ, PA and WV. Using a mega-regional travel demand model, we incorporate different values-of-time for travelers under different conditions. However, our value-of-time estimates are not limited to income categories. Our estimates also include trip purposes across a number of scenarios. We demonstrate that adding trip-purpose to congestion price determination leads to different outcomes at the mega-regional level and also for individual sub-regions. We conclude with implications for adopting this approach and ideas for implementing them in a complex institutional set-up.Keywords: value of time, elasticity, commuter travel, congestion pricing, megaregion
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Chakraborty, Arnab
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Chakraborty, Arnab
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 418
  Paper Number: 13-0156
• Modeling Emission Policies Through Travel Demand Mechanisms: Analysis of the Best Reduction Strategies
  Abstract: Emission reduction strategies are gaining attention as planning agencies work towards adherence to air quality conformity standards. As state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) struggle to find more options to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG), emission pricing offers a solution. To consider emission pricing as an alternative, planners and policymakers will need tools to understand the implications on travel behavior of private vehicle users. In this paper we present an integrated travel demand and emission model to incorporate policy strategies for emission reduction. First, the travel demand model determines the destination, mode and route choice of the users in response to a particular strategy set by the planner. Second, the emission model provides GHG (NOx, VOC, and CO2) estimates at a very detailed level in the transportation network. A logit-based destination choice and mode choice is proposed and the user’s response to a strategy in assignment is captured by Frank-Wolfe algorithm. A Base-case and four models are proposed to achieve emission reduction in a multimodal transportation network. Each model provides several insights to pollutant specific emission, how different function classes of the network are affected by policies, impacts on vehicle miles of travel (VMT), total system emission, and total system travel time. The complete framework is applied to Montgomery County’s (located in the Washington DC-Baltimore region in the United States) multimodal transportation network. It is observed that each model has a set of advantages and limitations in terms of emission reduction.
  Authors: Welch, Timothy F.; Mishra, Sabyasachee
  Authors: Welch, Timothy F.; Mishra, Sabyasachee
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-0148
• Evolution of Modal Captivity and Mode Choice Patterns for Commuting Trips: Longitudinal Analysis by Using Cross-Sectional Data Sets
  Abstract: This paper presents an econometric model that uses multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets to explain temporal evolutions of commuting mode choice preference structures. The model explicitly addresses latent captivity to different modes in addition to systematic elements of choice behaviour. The empirical model is a pooled model and is estimated by pooling three household travel survey datasets together that are collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a 10 year time period. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent captivity and the mode choice preference structure of commuting mode choice in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivity to different modes; in the transportation cost perceptions among different occupation groups, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. Furthermore, the pooled model developed in this paper demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is a more efficient method of capturing behavioural changes than using a cross-sectional model. Finally, the pooled model reveals that unexplained components of the modal captivities change more over time than the unexplained portions of the systematic utility functions. These findings highlight the necessity of considering latent captivity in commuting mode choice models for proper policy evaluations and forecasting.
  Authors: Weiss, Adam; Nurul Habib, Khandker M.
  Authors: Weiss, Adam; Nurul Habib, Khandker M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0220
• Investigating the Transferability of Individual Trip Rates: Decision Tree Approach
  Abstract: Transferring trip rates to areas without local survey data is a common practice which is typically performed in an ad-hoc fashion using household-based cross-classification tables. This paper applies a rule-based method called decision tree to develop individual-level trip generation models for eight different trip purposes as defined in the National Household Travel Survey data (NHTS 2009) in addition to their daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT). For each trip purpose, the models are then obtained by finding the best-fitted statistical distribution to each one of the final decision tree clusters while considering the correlation between different trip purposes. The rule-based models utilize several socio-demographic and land-use explanatory variables and are sensitive to changes in demographics. The performance of the models are then tested and validated in a transferability application to Phoenix Metropolitan Region. These models can be employed in a disaggregate microsimulation framework to generate trips with different purposes at individual or household level. They can also be used as an alternative solution for trip generation step of a conventional four step travel demand model.
  Authors: Fasihozaman Langerudi, Mehran; Hossein Rashidi, Taha; Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Authors: Fasihozaman Langerudi, Mehran; Hossein Rashidi, Taha; Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0218
• Automated Microscopic Analysis of Pedestrian Gait Parameters at Urban Signalized Intersections
  Abstract: There is an increased awareness of the importance of active non-motorized modes of travel. Therefore, pedestrian behavior studies are receiving a growing attention from policy makers, researchers and practitioners. A solid understanding of pedestrian walking behavior is necessary for the evaluation of measures associated with walking conditions such as comfortability and efficiency. Gait analysis is one of the useful approaches for analyzing pedestrian behavior at the microscopic level. The goal of this paper is to examine the spatio-temporal parameters of pedestrian gait (step frequency and step length) by means of automated video analysis to understand pedestrian walking behavior beyond the analysis of walking speed. The main outcome of this microscopic-level analysis is to provide an insight into pedestrian walking mechanisms and the effect of different characteristics such as gender and age. The study uses a data set collected from a video recorded in Oakland, California. Gait parameters were found to be influenced by pedestrian gender, age, group size, crosswalk length, and pedestrian signal indication. The results showed that pedestrians tend to increase their step length more than they increase their step frequency to increase walking speed. It was also found that, compared to males, females generally increase their walking speed by increasing their step frequency more than step length; however, when in non-compliance with signal indications, females increase their walking speed by increasing their step length more than step frequency. It was also found that older pedestrians do not significantly change their walking behavior when in non-compliance with signal indications
  Authors: Hediyeh, Houman; Sayed, Tarek; Zaki, Mohamed H.
  Authors: Hediyeh, Houman; Sayed, Tarek; Zaki, Mohamed H.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-0349
• Residential Preferences Among Residents Along Hiawatha Light Rail Corridor and Their Transit Use
  Abstract: Light rail transit (LRT) has been touted as an effective way to increase ridership. However, not all residents move to LRT corridors for the quality of transit service and access to transit. Using data collected from the Hiawatha corridor in Minneapolis and control corridors, this study explores the characteristics of station area residents, the reasons of moving to the LRT corridor, and their association with transit use. We find that there are few differences in residential preferences between urban residents who live close to or far from the LRT, except their preferences for transit. Further, although Hiawatha residents strongly value transit preferences and the preferences are associated with some demographic characteristics, there are no significant differences in demographics between Hiawatha and urban control residents and the Hiawatha LRT does not have an independent effect on transit uses. Thus, the LRT itself is not sufficient to attract frequent transit users and promote transit uses among station area residents. However, land use and transportation policies may play an important role. This study also finds the evidence of residential self-selection
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-0276
• Automated Classification of Pedestrian Gender and Age Using Spatiotemporal Parameters of Gait
  Abstract: Human gait can be a good tool for the recognition of human attributes from a distance. This study investigates the feasibility of using the spatiotemporal parameters of gait (step frequency and step length) as cues to classify pedestrians according to their gender and age. In this paper, the pedestrian walking speed profile is used to extract motion features such as step frequency and step length in order to classify pedestrians according to their gender and age. Computer vision techniques are used for the automatic detection and tracking of pedestrians in an open (uncontrolled) environment. The classification is undertaken using a simple k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) algorithm. Two case studies are used for demonstration from Vancouver, British Columbia and Oakland, California. For gender, correct classification rates (CCR) of 78% and 81 % were achieved for the Vancouver and Oakland case studies, respectively. The Vancouver case study considers pedestrians walking alone or in groups while the Oakland case study only considers pedestrians walking alone. Pedestrian age classification resulted in a CCR of 86% for the Oakland case study where pedestrians walking alone or in groups are considered. These results are based on two motion feature vectors, step frequency and step length. Adding the walking speed as a third motion feature improved the results of gender classification for the case study in Oakland with a CCR of 85% (4% improvement) but had no effect on the Vancouver case study. Another classification measure, the kappa statistic, showed that the classification results are statistically significant beyond what is expected by chance.
  Authors: Hediyeh, Houman; Sayed, Tarek; Zaki, Mohamed H.
  Authors: Hediyeh, Houman; Sayed, Tarek; Zaki, Mohamed H.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-0350
• Multientity Perspective Freight Demand Modeling Technique: Varying Objectives and Outcomes
  Abstract: The importance of freight transportation modeling and forecasting to better address planning and policy issues, ranging from general and long-range planning and project prioritization to modal diversion and economic assessment, is well recognized by policy makers. Compared to advancement in travel demand modeling for passenger travel, however, current freight demand modeling methods are not yet in the adequate levels to assess increasingly complex and important planning and policy issues. Besides firms generating and consuming commodities, the three most important players in freight demand modeling are (a) the shippers, (b) the planners, and (c) policy (decision) makers. The objective of each player is different as it is geared towards attainment of respective objective. Past research is limited in proposing a unified methodology to address the objective of each player and to assess performance of transportation networks under conditions to achieve such objectives. In this paper, freight demand modeling is designed to address each objective of three players in a multimodal transportation network. A freight transportation model that combines three geographic scales—national, state, and local—is proposed and developed to capture different characteristics of short- and long-distance freight flows subjected to stochastic networks (when network conditions vary by time of day) and uncertain market conditions (when freight demand vary by objective of the player), with a focus on the state-level modeling in Maryland. Data for the model include freight flows by commodity and by Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) zone, which are further disaggregated to Statewide Modeling Zones in Maryland; a transportation network with detailed link level attributes; user costs in addition to all details needed for auto travel demand model. The model is captured in a multi-class user equilibrium traffic assignment. The results demonstrate the network performance and key information on travel characteristics for each player. The proposed tool can be used for freight travel demand modeling for analyzing impacts of policies at state, county and local levels.
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Iseki, Hiroyuki; Moeckel, Rolf
  Authors: Mishra, Sabyasachee; Iseki, Hiroyuki; Moeckel, Rolf
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 321
  Paper Number: 13-0376
• Chinatown Curbside Management Study: Case Study on Implementing an Adaptive Public Outreach Framework in a Traditional Neighborhood
  Abstract: Manhattan’s Chinatown has a rich cultural heritage, which provides a vivid experience for its many users. This experience generates a considerable amount of vehicular and pedestrian traffic resulting in curbside challenges. Using best practices from similar neighborhood transportation studies, the New York City Department of Transportation’s Chinatown Curbside Management Study (CCMS) sought to address these challenges by developing curbside improvements. An interactive and transparent process was critical to the study’s success. The CCMS adapted its public outreach to provide increased engagement to a hierarchical, traditional, predominantly non-English speaking, and over-studied community. Numerous stakeholder meetings and public workshops were held throughout the course of the study. A formal workshop was restructured to include a simultaneous neighborhood park workshop. Bringing the workshop to the people established a rapport and fostered a relationship with the public. Instead of writing off poor meeting attendance, the project team adapted to allow better engagement. Similarly, various community groups hosted smaller-scale workshops, held in native languages, to provide personalized interaction. Participants played a board game, which focused on identified issues, potential improvements, and the associated trade-offs of these treatments. Most recently, a mobile open house traveled through the study area to provide information on the proposed pilot treatments and collect feedback.This case study is a useful lesson for public involvement practitioners, particularly when engaging diverse and unique communities. As robust public involvement project portfolios are developed and implemented, it is critical that practitioners learn from and listen to the community and utilize an adaptive engagement approach.
  Authors: Camay, Stephanie; Gray, Nathan; Stein, David; Maguire, Thomas; Sanagavarapu, Suchitra; Leung, Jennifer; Mosseri, Gill; Jordan, Patrick B.
  Authors: Camay, Stephanie; Gray, Nathan; Stein, David; Maguire, Thomas; Sanagavarapu, Suchitra; Leung, Jennifer; Mosseri, Gill; Jordan, Patrick B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Society
  Session: 505
  Paper Number: 13-0381
• Strategies to Decrease the Computational Burden of Path-Based Static Traffic Assignment Algorithms
  Abstract: There are three important stages of path-based algorithms (PBAs) for solving the static user equilibrium traffic assignment problem (STA): finding shortest paths between various origins and destinations based on the present flow conditions to update the path set, updating path flows based on the move direction of the PBA, and updating the link flows and costs. This paper proposes strategies to improve the computational efficiency of these three stages. The first strategy provides a simple method to preclude the through-routing via the zone centroid and helps to avoid unrealistic flow without affecting the flow update process of a PBA. The second strategy seeks to improve the efficiency of the path flow update process by circumventing unnecessary computation. The third strategy proposes faster link flow and link cost update processes along with a link data structure to support it. The computational experiments using two recently developed PBAs validate the effectiveness of these strategies and help to understand their rationale. The strategies are significant from both theoretical and practical perspectives. From a theoretical viewpoint, they help in designing an efficient execution process for PBAs and provide an improved common platform for comparing their performances. For practice, they can reduce the computational cost in finding the solution of the STA without increasing the complexity of the execution of the algorithm.
  Authors: Kumar, Amit; Peeta, Srinivas
  Authors: Kumar, Amit; Peeta, Srinivas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 451
  Paper Number: 13-0417
• Social Media and Primary Commercial Service Airports
  Abstract: Throughout the past decade the aviation industry in the United States has continually encountered significant socio-economic burdens. Most notable, the tragic events of September 11th left the industry highly susceptible to economic turmoil, such as the global recession accentuated by record high fuel prices, as well as sociological events like world pandemic in the form of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The nation’s airports, the infrastructure supporting this industry, are no exception. In conjunction with these onerous events, continuing cuts in intergovernmental funding sources, as well as weakened revenue streams, have forced airports to utilize contemporary tools, strategies, and techniques to reinforce traditional management functions. Social media platforms such as blogs, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Foursquare, are a growing trend throughout various public and private industries to increase effectiveness, efficiency, and overall yield in regard to marketing and communication strategies. Consistent with New Public Management and the reinvention of government in the 1980s, conducive of cost-efficiency and customer-centric approaches, airports utilize social media to increase self-sufficiency by reducing expenditures associated with traditional marketing and communication modes. In addition, social media technologies enable airports to more effectively target, engage, and foster two-way communication with a multitude of audiences. This study provides an overview of these popular social media services. In addition this study empirically examines, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the current usage of social media throughout Primary Commercial Service airports. Statistics on airport usage and best practices are provided supporting preliminary guidance on the use of social media at airports.
  Authors: Stambaugh, Clayton
  Authors: Stambaugh, Clayton
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: AV020
  Paper Number: 13-0436
• Travel Behavior of Two Major Groups in Large-Scale Residential Areas in the Periphery of Shanghai, China:Case Study of Jinhexincheng, Jiading District
  Abstract: Shanghai is in the process of urban redevelopment. In order to reform old downtown areas and improve living conditions, poor houses are demolished and government relocates the residents. Usually they are relocated in large-scale residential areas in the periphery of Shanghai. Jinhexincheng is one of them. Previous studies usually focus on travel behavior in developed countries. Suburban travel behavior in developing countries waits to be more studied. Studies which look into different people¡¯s travel behavior in large-scale residential areas in the suburbs in developing countries are even scarce. This study analyzes two major groups¡¯ travel behaviors to provide a deeper understanding of this issue in Chinese big cities.Data is collected through a random sampling survey. Considering population pyramid of Jinhexincheng, socioeconomic and travel characteristics, two main groups come out: workers (representing commuters) and retirees (representing non-commuters).Results show that many workers commute across districts while retirees often travel inside the district. The logistic regression model is utilized, suggesting the most important factor of cross-district commuting is education. To workers, buses, mopeds and the metro are popular mode choices. However, to retirees, buses, the metro, supermarket shuttle buses and walking become popular choices. Furthermore, the morning departure time of the elderly is later than the workers¡¯ and the workers¡¯ is earlier than morning peak in Shanghai center. Compared to the world average commuting time (40 minutes), Jinhexincheng¡¯s commuting time (over an hour) is quite long. The results suggest that transportation planning must consider travel needs of different people.
  Authors: Guan, Jinping; Yang, Dongyuan
  Authors: Guan, Jinping; Yang, Dongyuan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 732
  Paper Number: 13-0510
• Geographic Distribution of E-shopping: Application of Structural Equation Models in the Twin Cities
  Abstract: The proliferation of internet shopping has imposed enormous pressure on traditional stores. Few studies have examined the geographic distribution of online buyers and its implications on retail development. Using 585 internet users in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, this study develops structural equation models to test two competing hypotheses regarding the connections between spatial attributes and e-shopping: diffusion of innovation and efficiency. The results demonstrate that the influence of shopping accessibility on e-shopping is not uniform, but depends on the locations in metropolitan areas. Specifically, internet users living in urban and/or high shopping accessibility areas tend to purchase online more often than their counterparts in other areas because the former are better educated and use the internet more heavily than the latter. However, low shopping accessibility in exurban areas does promote the usage of e-shopping, compared to exurban areas with relatively high shopping accessibility.
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu; Chen, Qian; Choo, Sangho
  Authors: Cao, Xinyu; Chen, Qian; Choo, Sangho
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 815
  Paper Number: 13-0474
• Will Privacy Concerns Limit the Ability of Smart Phone Technologies to Help Foster Collaborative School Travel?
  Abstract: The GPS functionality in modern Smartphones has the capability of pinpointing an individual’s position at any given time. As a result, a wide variety of apps are now available, providing the user with location-specific services, tailored to their location in space and time. In a transportation sense, such functionality has potential for providing users with visibility of current and future potential transport options. Understanding where an individual is, where they have been and might be in the immediate future, and knowledge of their typical schedules and historic trace patterns means that opportunistic, collaborative travel opportunities might be possible. A key issue with such a concept, however, is the extent to which individuals are prepared to share information on their whereabouts, schedules and travel habits with others. This concept is being explored as part of the 6th Sense Transport project and this paper looks specifically at using smartphone technology to visualise lift-sharing opportunities for the morning school run, and the associated privacy issues.Findings from a study of parents of primary-age children suggested that such a ‘real-time’ travel option visualisation system (RTOVS) must consider both who a user’s personal information is given to and the type of information given to be successfully adopted by users. This is because the benefits it offers must outweigh the privacy risks perceived by the users. Additionally, the survey results indicated that such a system will be particularly attractive to the educated, employed, high-income household with time-scheduling pressures.
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott; Cherrett, Tom; Waterson, Ben; Norgate, Sarah; Davies, Nigel; Speed, Chris; Dickinson, Janet
  Authors: Cruickshanks, Scott; Cherrett, Tom; Waterson, Ben; Norgate, Sarah; Davies, Nigel; Speed, Chris; Dickinson, Janet
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0525
• Impact of Weather Conditions on Capital Bikeshare Trips
  Abstract: Automated bicycle renting systems have seen tremendous growth over the last few years, with many cities implementing systems. Washington, DC, has one of the largest systems of bikesharing in the US and recently made all their usage data publically available for analysis. One issue with promoting bicycling as a reliable alternative mode of travel is the impact of unfavorable weather conditions on usage. In theory, usage can be affected by colder weather, precipitation, and excessive heat. The research presented here analyzes the effect of weather on the use of the Washington, DC, bikeshare system. Hourly weather data, including temperature, rainfall, snow, wind, fog, and humidity levels are linked to hourly usage data and statistical models linking both number of users and duration of use are estimated. Further, we evaluate trips from bikeshare stations within one quarter mile of Metro (subway) stations at times when Metro is operating. This allows us to determine whether Metro serves as a back-up option when weather conditions are unfavorable for bicycling. Results show that cold temperatures, rain, and high humidity levels reduce both the likelihood of using bikeshare and the duration of trips. Trips taken from bikeshare stations proximate to Metro stations are affected more by rain than trips not proximate to Metro stations and less likely when it is dark. This information is useful for understanding bicycling behavior and also for those planning bikeshare systems in other cities.
  Authors: Gebhart, Kyle; Noland, Robert B.
  Authors: Gebhart, Kyle; Noland, Robert B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 225
  Paper Number: 13-0563
• Time-of-Day Dynamics of Episodic Hedonic Value of Activities and Travel
  Abstract: In this paper a preliminary analysis of episodic reports of feelings are analyzed to explore the correlation with activity and travel characteristics, personal and household circumstances as well as other contextual factors that may influence feelings. Interestingly, a strong correlation is found between global indicators of satisfaction about life, health, and finances and discrepancies with marriage satisfaction. Very important, however, is the finding that different types of activities are significantly associated with many different scores of feelings with some of them varying by time of day in a way that is as expected (tired and pain) but not uniformly across indicators of subjective well being. Travel as a passenger is consistently a pleasant activity while traveling alone is associated with positive and negative feelings. In addition, interaction with social networks is an important correlate of episodic feelings. Strong correlation between person and household characteristics and episodic reports, on the other hand, is also found. Moreover, the role enacted within a household and companionship in activities are also important correlates of feelings. Where persons live (region of the US) and living arrangements (retiree communities and elderly housing) are also correlates of emotions.
  Authors: Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Authors: Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0521
• Tour-Based Mode Choice of Joint Household Travel Patterns on Weekend and Weekday
  Abstract: Joint household travel, with or without joint participation in an activity, constitutes a fundamental aspect in modelling activity-based travel behaviour. This paper examines joint household activities and travel using a utility maximising approach that considers all household members as active agents in the household decision-making. An individual tour-based mode choice model is formulated contingent on joint household decisions where joint household activities and shared ride arrangements are recognised as part of the joint household decision-making that influences the travel patterns of each household member. Two models, one for weekend and one for weekday, are estimated using empirical data from the Sydney Household Travel Survey. The results show that weekend travel is characterised by a high joint household activity participation rate while weekday travel is distinguished by more intra-household shared ride arrangements. The generation of joint household travel patterns is highly associated with travel purpose, social and mobility constraints and household resources. On weekends, public transport is mainly used by captive users (i.e., no-car households and students) and its share is about half of that on weekdays. Also, values of travel time are found to be higher on weekends than on weekdays. This paper highlights the importance of studying joint household travel and using different transport management measures for alleviating traffic congestion on weekdays and weekends.
  Authors: Ho, Chinh; Mulley, Corinne
  Authors: Ho, Chinh; Mulley, Corinne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 686
  Paper Number: 13-0609
• An Alpha-Reliable Combined Mean Travel Time Measure for Modeling Routing Risk Behaviors in Stochastic Traffic Network
  Abstract: Based on the reliability budget and percentile travel time (PTT), this study proposes a new travel time measure named the combined mean travel time (CMTT) to model the travellers¡¯ routing risk-attitudes under the stochastic traffic network. CMTT here is defined as the convex combination of the conditional expectations of PTT-below and PTT-excess travel times. The former is designed as a risk-optimistic travel time measure, and the latter is a risk-pessimistic one. The central idea of CMTT is comprehensively illustrated and the differences among the existing travel time measures are analysed. The Wardropian combined mean traffic equilibrium (CMTE) model is formulated as a variational inequality and solved via an alternating direction algorithm nesting the extra-gradient projection process. Some quantitative and qualitative properties of CMTT and CMTE model are rigorously proved. In the end, numerical example based on an artificial network is performed to characterize the CMTE network.
  Authors: Zhang, Wenyi; Guan, Wei; Song, Liying; Sun, Huijun
  Authors: Zhang, Wenyi; Guan, Wei; Song, Liying; Sun, Huijun
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-0611
• Random Regret and Random Utility in the Household Purchase of a Motor Vehicle
  Abstract: Random utility maximisation is the preeminent behavioural theory used to model choices. An alternative paradigm, however, is random regret minimisation. While the majority of the literature examines the choices of individuals, this paper compares the choices of groups, as well individuals, in both the utility maximisation and regret minimisation frameworks and explores the influence household members have with respect to an automobile purchase decision within an interactive agency choice experiment. Regret minimisation is shown to be the preferred behavioural mechanism for groups and individuals within groups who shoulder a high degree of responsibility for the choice of the group.
  Authors: Beck, Matthew John; Chorus, Caspar; Rose, John Matthew; Hensher, David A.
  Authors: Beck, Matthew John; Chorus, Caspar; Rose, John Matthew; Hensher, David A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 686
  Paper Number: 13-0577
• Dynamic Route Choice Behavior Analysis Considering En Route Learning and Choices
  Abstract: This paper presents a method to model a driverfs en-route learning process and changes in route choice at each decision node. A model based on Bayesian networks (BN) is proposed to describe the en-route updating of the driverfs knowledge of the traffic state. A random utility-based model is developed to predict en-route choices. A case study based on probe data is carried out to illustrate the development of the model and analyze the dynamic route choice problem. The results show that the model in which a driverfs choice of making en-route decisions is taken into account has a better goodness of fit. The probability of making an en-route choice is related to the distance from the origin and the spatial scale of the intersection at the decision node.
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-0646
• Weighing Integration by Block Heterogeneity to Evaluate Pedestrian Activity
  Abstract: Pedestrian exposure is a necessary component for a meaningful evaluation of pedestrian safety. The Space Syntax approach has a track record of accurate prediction of pedestrian activity, by estimating the physical street connectivity in urban environments. However, for some environments, the performance of Space Syntax is limited and cannot be used as a reliable estimate of exposure. This paper makes use of the interdependency between: (i) street connectivity - estimated here using integration; and (ii) land-use characteristics; to propose a mechanism to adjust integration by land-use features at the block level. Values of integration for each street-block, which hold the same mean values along the same street, are weighted based on dominant land-use features. The weighted integration value for a street-block dominated by commercial property is higher than the mean integration value for that street. Conversely, the weighted integration value for a residential street-block is lower than the mean integration value for that street. The proposed approach captures the heterogeneity of street-blocks, which is not always captured by Space Syntax. Applying this method to the northern periphery of the University of California, Berkeley, has produced promising preliminary results. It was shown that the weighted integration values (at the street-block level) are better correlated with pedestrian volumes than mean integration values (street scale). Further research efforts are required to develop this simplified approach into a pedestrian exposure prediction model
  Authors: Grembek, Offer; Do, Minh-Tan; Ragland, David R.; Chan, Ching-Yao
  Authors: Grembek, Offer; Do, Minh-Tan; Ragland, David R.; Chan, Ching-Yao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-0579
• Identifying Chosen Public Transport Connections from GPS Observations
  Abstract: Transport planners around the world are currently searching for innovative strategies for customer-friendly and efficient public transport systems. An important element in this process is the understanding of the passengers' valuation of different elements of public transport trips. One challenge associated with this the observation of the actual passenger behaviour in all its complexity. One way to address this challenge is to use person-based GPS devices for observing the public transport connections chosen by passengers. GPS-based studies have become increasingly popular in the last two decades and their advantages for observing and modelling car and bicycle route choice have been shown by many studies. However, for public transport connection choice modelling the processing routines to extract the chosen connections and their relevant attributes have so far been missing.This paper reports on a first implementation of such a procedure called "public transport map-matching". The basic idea is to first employ a car map-matching procedure for each stage of a public transport trip to determine the route within the public transport network. Then, this route is used to find the most likely public transport line and the respective boarding and alighting stops. Finally, the stages of the public transport trip are joined together including the access and egress stages by walk or bicycle. The procedure is tested using the data from an ongoing GPS study in Zurich - an area in Switzerland with a very dense public transport network.
  Authors: Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Authors: Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 486
  Paper Number: 13-0588
• Road Congestion in Europe: Measurement and Monitoring Using GPS Traces
  Abstract: The methodology presented here allows to measure and monitor road congestion across Europe using traces from in-vehicle navigation systems. The approach is based on the analysis of a large number of real vehicle speeds that have been measured on each road link and the application of algorithms that allow the estimation of congestion indicators for specific types of roads during selected time periods. The results include the detailed mapping of recurrent congestion both geographically and temporally, as well as the comparison of the quality of service of road networks between different zones.The large number of "probes" (over 1 trillion of measurements) gives a highly accurate and representative picture of the actual driving conditions across the European road network. The data collected are clustered in groups of speed profiles which represent change in average speed behaviour along a road link in five-minute time intervals over a 24-hour period. Each road link has a specific speed profile assigned per day of the week. The average speed on a specific link during a certain time period can be compared to the benchmark speed estimated for the link under free flow conditions or against selected threshold values. As a result, indicators of congestion for different time periods can be measured and compared across links, regions and countries. The paper also presents examples of the application of this methodology:• Mapping congestion and monitoring its evolution over time, by comparing the level and distribution of congestion in two different points in time • Application of the congestion indicators in European transport policy, by comparing average congestion between the peak hour and wider time periods and identifying measures to improve the temporal distribution• Combination of congestion indicators with traffic counts in order to improve speed flow curves used in transport network models
  Authors: Christidis, Panayotis; Ibañez Rivas, Nicolás
  Authors: Christidis, Panayotis; Ibañez Rivas, Nicolás
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-0679
• Mixed Multinomial Logit Model for Out-of-Home Leisure Activity Choice
  Abstract: This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities themselves such as transport mode and day of the week. The Dutch 2008-2009 Continuous Time Use Research data (CVTO) on leisure activities is used to estimate a mixed multinomial logit model that accounts for heterogeneity in individuals’ preferences. The present model formulation also allows the analysis of substitution and complementary between the different types of activities. Results indicate differences in behavior between people with different socio-demographic characteristics, especially regarding their lifecycle stages, which is a variable composed by age and household composition. The built environment exerts a small influence on leisure activity purpose choice, whereas travel party has a strong influence. In terms of substitution and complementary relationships between activity purposes it was found that while outdoor leisure decreases the propensity to perform sports or hobbies/courses activities, it increases the propensity to perform fun shopping and going out/culture activities. A discussion of limitations of the study completes the paper
  Authors: Grigolon, Anna Beatriz; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Grigolon, Anna Beatriz; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-0683
• Incorporating Intrahousehold Interactions into Tour-Based Model of Public Transport Use in Car-Negotiating Households
  Abstract: Intra-household interactions in travel constitute a fundamental aspect in understanding activity-travel behaviour, as reflected by the substantial percentage of regional travel which is made jointly. The development of travel demand models incorporating intra-household interactions are crucial to providing a more credible analysis of travellers’ response to policies and this paper contributes by examining intra-household interactions in travel mode choice using a tour-based modelling framework with a particular focus on public transport use in households with differences in car availability. An important distinction is made between car-sufficient households (where there are at least as many cars in the household as licence holders) and car-negotiating households (households with fewer cars than licence holders). Intra-household interactions and temporal-spatial constraints are explicitly represented by different patterns of joint household tours, using home-based tours as the unit of analysis. The empirical analysis is based on a nested logit model which is developed to integrate intra-household interactions with tour-based mode choices, using the Sydney Household Travel Survey data. The results show that joint household travel account for more than half of weekday home-based tours in Sydney. The arrangement of joint household tours is shown to depend on household context, situational factors, and social constraints. Mode choice associated with different joint tour patterns are influenced by household and individual characteristics, tour attributes, and transport-related fringe benefits.
  Authors: Ho, Chinh
  Authors: Ho, Chinh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 842
  Paper Number: 13-0039
• Analysis of Pedestrian Performance in Shared Space Environments
  Abstract: The concept of Shared Space, applied in urban road environment, aims to reduce the dominance of the motor vehicle by promoting pedestrian and cyclist activity and utilising the road space as a place. Unlike a conventional road, a shared space encourages all road users to legally occupy the same road space with little physical separation. This paper presents pedestrian-related performance measures developed under a multi-faceted methodological framework to evaluate the successfulness of shared space schemes based on study areas in Auckland’s city centre. The analysis of the ‘before and after’ implementation data reveals a positive result to pedestrian performance across all sites based on 24-hour pedestrian profile, pedestrian trajectory, dwell time and stationary activity. A comparative analysis of the ‘after’ data highlights the importance of the active frontage in enabling a lower (vehicular) speed environment in relation to the number of pedestrians within the shared space. The research analysis reported in this paper forms part of a doctoral research study at the University of Auckland with support from Auckland Transport, a regional transport agency in New Zealand.
  Authors: Karndacharuk, Auttapone; Wilson, Douglas James; Dunn, Roger
  Authors: Karndacharuk, Auttapone; Wilson, Douglas James; Dunn, Roger
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-0081
• Cycling Habits and Other Psychological Variables Affecting Commuting by Bicycle in City of Madrid
  Abstract: In order to develop effective cycling policies it is important to know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Since psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of different cycling factors, and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured using attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits.Statistical differences in the variables are established according to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport/leisure, no use). This enabled us to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle, and to make recommendations for cycling policies. We identify two underlying structures (factors) among the attitudinal variables: “Direct Benefits” and “Long-term benefits”; and three other factors related to variables of difficulty: “Physical conditions”, “External facilities”, and “Individual capacities”. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on individuals’ decision to cycle to work/place of study is tested using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid (Spain), the decision to cycle to work/place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for non-commuting trips). Since bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña; Monzon, Andres; Lois, David
  Authors: Muñoz López, Begoña; Monzon, Andres; Lois, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0624
• Identifying Differences in Travel Time Budgets Between Elderly and Nonelderly Groups Using PSL Structural Equation Models: Case Study for Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea
  Abstract: To date aging is one of the most important issues in our society because of its significant socio-economic impacts. Corresponding concerns about the transportation needs of the elderly have led to a focus on the mobility and quality of life of the elderly and motivated various studies of senior mobility. In particular, the frequency of seniors' travel activities heavily relies on how far and easily they can travel. It is of great interest to explore travel behavior of the elderly. This study is to investigate the difference of travel behavior between the elderly and the non-elderly groups focusing on travel time budget (TTB), using 2006 household travel diary survey data in Seoul Metropolitan Area. We develop PLS-structural equation models to identify major variable to affect TTB of the two groups and then compare the differences between the models. The model results indicate that the significant variables to have effects on TTB are different between the two groups, and their degrees of effects of the same variables are also different with respect to personal and household characteristics.
  Authors: Kim, Taeho; Choo, Sangho; Shin, Yeacheol; You, Soyoung Iris
  Authors: Kim, Taeho; Choo, Sangho; Shin, Yeacheol; You, Soyoung Iris
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0643
• Cross-Sector Metropolitan Coordinating Body for Urban Transportation in Developing Countries
  Abstract: Metropolitan areas in developing countries especially in emerging countries are facing chronic traffic congestion in conjunction with low service level of public transportation. On the other hand, the recent transportation policies such as a bus rapid transit (BRT) could be a breakthrough even though coordination of several governmental agencies is prerequisite. This paper proposed the theoretical framework of the metropolitan coordinating body in urban transportation, mainly for developing countries, and identified issues in the process of formulating the body. Based on the examples from throughout the world, three directions of coordination; consolidation, independence and comprehensiveness are identified. Taking the level of autonomy and the impact of transportation issues into account, the appropriate level of consolidation, independence and the number of participants shall be chosen. As almost all the developing countries are facing typical problem of lack of financial and human resources, unsound institutional framework and unstable political conditions etc., the points of coordination in developing countries such as an institutional framework, coordination with urban planning, infrastructure development, transportation demand management, funding scheme and operation of public transportation were examined. Finally, the metropolitan transportation coordination scheme, issues of establishing the coordinating body were clarified utilizing the example in Jakarta metropolitan area. It was revealed that both continuous meetings and political support were required to build consensus of more than 30 organizations.
  Authors: Kawaguchi, Hirohisa; Hamada, Keigo
  Authors: Kawaguchi, Hirohisa; Hamada, Keigo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-0295
• Quantifying Truck Delay on Interstates in Georgia
  Abstract: This paper advances the state-of-the-practice in public sector freight transportation performance measurement, with implications for freight policy and planning. The research transcends anecdotal observations of congestion by presenting a methodology to quantify freight delay at a scale simultaneously detailed and statewide in scope.Combined volume and speed data specific to trucks and on a statewide basis are not commonly available. This study presents a method used in Georgia to combine truck volume and speed data from separate sources to quantify truck delay. In 2010, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) conducted a truck speed study on Georgia Interstates. Within one-mile segments, ATRI calculated weekday average speeds by time-of-day based on truck global positioning system traces. The truck volumes were obtained from a database of the State Traffic and Report Statistics (STARS) from the Georgia Department of Transportation.Trucks experienced approximately 7,600 hours of delay per day on Georgia’s Interstates. Trucks were delayed more in the afternoon peak period than the morning peak period. The vast majority (76%) of that delay occurred in the Atlanta region, and a large portion (45%) of the statewide truck delay occurred in Atlanta’s afternoon peak period. The hours of truck delay were also quantified for specific chronically congested corridors and bottlenecks. This approach can be repeated to establish an annual record of truck delay to target and subsequently measure the impacts of future investments. The method may also be extended to other states and roadway types.
  Authors: Zuehlke, Kai; Pierce, David
  Authors: Zuehlke, Kai; Pierce, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 321
  Paper Number: 13-0590
• Evaluating Beat Structure and Truck Allocation for the Tarrant County Courtesy Patrol
  Abstract: Non-recurring congestion poses a significant concern to urban freeway drivers. Effective incident management relies on many tools to lessen the overall impact of crashes, road debris, and stalled/disabled vehicles. Many urban areas have adopted freeway service patrol (FSP) programs that patrol the freeway network searching for incidents, providing aid to motorists, and assisting with incident management and clearance. FSP management must consider the beat structure and fleet allocation. This study uses both deterministic and probabilistic response time estimations for each beat to assess different fleet allocations. The goal of the research is to consider whether the urban network should be segmented into as many beats as possible with individual trucks assigned to each beat or if additional trucks should be allocated to fewer beats.In an effort to explore the truck allocation problem with field data, the study uses the Tarrant County Courtesy Patrol (CP) as a case study. The Tarrant County CP typically uses a one-beat, two-beat or three-beat configuration with a single truck allocated to each beat. This study explores the merits of two-beat configuration. This study indicates that the incident distribution must be considered during both beat and tour design.
  Authors: Daneshgar, Farzad; Mattingly, Stephen P.; Haghani, Ali
  Authors: Daneshgar, Farzad; Mattingly, Stephen P.; Haghani, Ali
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-0725
• Moving Freight on Transit (FOT): Results of a Three Round Policy Delphi Study
  Abstract: Freight on Transit (FOT) refers to any trip that uses public transit vehicles and/or infrastructure to move things other than people. It can mean moving goods alongside passengers on buses, attaching cargo trailers to transit vehicles, operating freight vehicles between transit trips on subway lines, etc. A three round Delphi Study was conducted to explore the costs, benefits, and challenges of FOT and assess potential FOT operations in Toronto. Thirty four transportation experts participated in the study and through the iterative survey process, it is revealed that practitioners are not opposed to the concept of FOT so long as operations are competitive with current delivery methods in terms of cost and time, there is sufficient capacity on transit networks to support goods movement, and the operations do not disrupt or degrade public transit service. The expert evaluation of potential FOT operating strategies in Toronto, formulated based on aggregate opinion obtained throughout the Delphi process, suggests that while current transit infrastructure in Toronto does not have the capacity to support additional movements, there may be opportunities to include freight service in future projects as a means of offsetting operating costs and reducing the environmental impacts of urban goods movements. The results support previous claims that the technical challenges of FOT may be easier to overcome than institutional barriers like securing financing and balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders; and that the challenges and risks associated with FOT may not be worth what are perceived as only marginal benefits.
  Authors: Cochrane, Keith Andrew; Roorda, Matthew J.; Shalaby, Amer
  Authors: Cochrane, Keith Andrew; Roorda, Matthew J.; Shalaby, Amer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-0733
• Automated Inference of Linked Transit Journeys in London Using Fare-Transaction and Vehicle-Location Data
  Abstract: Urban public transit providers have historically planned and managed their networks and services with limited knowledge of their customers’ travel patterns. While ticket gates and bus fareboxes yield counts of passenger activity in specific stations or vehicles, the relationships between these transactions—the origins, transfers, and destinations of individual passengers—have typically been acquired only through costly and infrequent rider surveys. Building upon recent work on the utilization of automated fare-collection and vehicle-location systems for passenger-behavior analysis, this paper presents methods for inferring the journeys of all riders on a large public transit network.Using complete daily sets of data from London’s Oyster farecard and iBus vehicle-location system, boarding and alighting times and locations are inferred for individual bus passengers, interchanges (transfers) are inferred between passenger trips of various public modes, and origin–destination matrices of linked intermodal transit journeys are constructed, which include the estimated flows of non-farecard passengers. The outputs are validated against surveys and traditional origin–destination matrices, and the software implementation demonstrates that the procedure is efficient enough to be performed daily, enabling transit providers to observe travel behavior on all services at all times.
  Authors: Gordon, Jason B.; Koutsopoulos, Haris N.; Wilson, Nigel H.M.; Attanucci, John
  Authors: Gordon, Jason B.; Koutsopoulos, Haris N.; Wilson, Nigel H.M.; Attanucci, John
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-0740
• Structure of Joint Leisure Trips: Analyzing the Leisure Trips of Dutch Students
  Abstract: This paper investigates the spatial structure of students’ leisure trips and to what extent locational characteristics of social network partners influence decisions about their joint leisure activities and travel. To this end a survey was held among university students asking them about details of their last leisure trip made with a friend. Cluster analysis suggests that four typical leisure trip patterns can be derived. Three clusters seem to be determined by the residential locations of ego and alter. Depending on the residential distance between ego and alter, leisure trip distances are either short for ego and alter (if residential distance is very short), somewhat longer for both (if residential distance is slightly longer) or long for at least one partner (if residential distance is large). A fourth cluster includes cases with long leisure trips for both partners, independent of residential distance, representing cases where specific destinations are visited. A more detailed analysis of travel distance suggests that travel distance depends on size of the residential municipality, residential distance and objective and perceived quality of leisure facilities such as cafés, bars and restaurants. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that leisure trip decisions should be understood on the level of social network ties (i.e. ego and alter) rather than based on individual characteristics only. Also, it provides support for the idea that a focus on single ties, rather than on the structure of social networks as a whole, increases our insight in leisure trip decision making.
  Authors: Ettema, Dick
  Authors: Ettema, Dick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 842
  Paper Number: 13-0781
• Comparison of Two Dynamic Transportation Models: Case of Stockholm Congestion Charging
  Abstract: This paper reviews the transportation models used for predicting impacts of congestion charging in European cities and carries out in-depth comparison of two such models, METROPOLIS and SILVESTER. Both are mesoscopic dynamic models involving modal split and departure time choice calibrated for the Stockholm baseline situation without charges and applied for modeling effects of congestion charging. The results obtained from the two models are mutually compared and validated against actual outcome of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Both models provide significant improvement in realism over static models. However results of cost benefit analysis differ substantially.
  Authors: de Palma, André; Engelson, Leonid; Kristoffersson, Ida; Motamedi, Kiarash; Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Authors: de Palma, André; Engelson, Leonid; Kristoffersson, Ida; Motamedi, Kiarash; Saifuzzaman, Mohammad
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0760
• Travel Behavior Change After Introduction of Public Bicycle Systems: Case Study in Minhang District, Shanghai, China
  Abstract: The paper presents the first step of a series research on the characteristics of public bicycle users¡¯ travel behavior and the underlying mechanisms to support the development of public bicycle systems (PBS) in China. Based on a questionnaire survey in Minhang District, Shanghai, the paper focuses on travel behavior change after the introduction of the PBS. Using statistical analyses, it is found that people travel slightly more often than before when using PB; their travel distances are longer than expected. However, most users ride PB as a replacement of public transit, walking and private bicycle. Few modal shifts happened from car and moped/motocycle. Convenience contributes most to people¡¯s modal shift to PB, much more than the second and third most important factors, saving time and exercising, which is further confirmed by estimating a binary logit model explaining modal choice behavior between PB and other transport modes. The estimated travel utility gain based on the model turns out to be significant. The charging experiment reveals that charging PB rental fee can reduce PB use extensively, much more than compensating for long distance ride.
  Authors: Zhu, Wei; Pang, Yuqi; Wang, De; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Zhu, Wei; Pang, Yuqi; Wang, De; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 735
  Paper Number: 13-0764
• Unassisted Off-Hour Deliveries and Their Potential Role in Freight Transportation Demand Management: Results from an Attitudinal Survey
  Abstract: This paper analyzes the chief results of an attitudinal survey regarding the willingness of receivers of urban deliveries to switch to unassisted off-hour deliveries, i.e., deliveries that take place outside regular business hours without the assistance of staff of the receiving establishment, in response to a series of policy incentives. In doing so, the paper describes the survey conducted, conducts descriptive analyses of the results, and analyzes the respondents’ stated willingness to participate in connection to business attributes and policy variables. The paper ends with a discussion of policy implications and a summary of the key findings.
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Hodge, Stacey Darville; Campbell, Shama; Sanchez, Ivan; Marquis, Robyn; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Rothbard, Sandra; Wojtowicz, Jeffrey M.
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Hodge, Stacey Darville; Campbell, Shama; Sanchez, Ivan; Marquis, Robyn; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Rothbard, Sandra; Wojtowicz, Jeffrey M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-0811
• Joint Optimization of Supply Chain Network Design and Highway Pavement Rehabilitation Plan Under Traffic Equilibrium
  Abstract: Expansion of industries often leads to construction of new facilities, and these facilities often induce additional traffic demand in a transportation network to or from these facility locations. This imposes pressure on the existing highway transportation infrastructure especially due to the heavy freight vehicles, which has a major impact on the traffic congestion and highway pavement deterioration. Hence, it is important to design facility locations in a holistic manner, taking into account the routing of vehicles as well as planning of pavement rehabilitation. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework for a capacitated facility location problem which incorporates traffic routing under congestion and pavement rehabilitation under deterioration. The objective is to minimize the total facility investment, transportation delay, along with life cycle costs of the pavement facilities. A bi-level mixed integer non-linear program (NLP) is developed to simultaneously determine the optimal number and location of facilities, optimal routing of shipments, and optimal pavement rehabilitation frequency and intensity. A Lagrangian relaxation (LR) solution framework is developed to solve the problem and get optimal solutions. A numerical case study on a hypothetical transportation network is conducted, and the computational results show that the proposed algorithm is able to solve the problem effectively. Managerial insights are also drawn.
  Authors: Hajibabai, Leila; Bai, Yun; Ouyang, Yanfeng
  Authors: Hajibabai, Leila; Bai, Yun; Ouyang, Yanfeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-0796
• Continuum Approximation Approach to Competitive FacilityLocation Design Under Facility Disruption Risks
  Abstract: This paper presents game-theoretical models based on a continuous approximation (CA) scheme to optimize service facility location design under spatial competition and facility disruption risks. The share of customer demand in a market highly depends on the functionality of service facilities and the presence of nearby competitors, as customers normally seek the nearest functioning facility for service. Our game-theoretical models incorporate these complicating factors into an integrated framework, and use continuous and differentiable density functions to represent discrete location decisions. We first analyze the existence of Nash equilibria in a symmetric two-company competition. Then we build a leader-follower Stackelberg competition model to derive the optimal facility location design when one of the companies have first-move advantage over its competitor. Both models are solved efficiently, and closed-form analytical solutions can be obtained for special case. Numerical experiments (with hypothetical and empirical data) are conducted to show the impacts of competition, facility disruption risks and transportation cost metrics on the optimal design. Interesting properties of the models cast managerial insights to real-world problems.
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Ouyang, Yanfeng
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Ouyang, Yanfeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-0797
• Landscape Pattern and Car Use: Evidence Linking Household Data with Satellite Imagery
  Abstract: Landscape pattern has long been hypothesized to influence automobile dependency. This paper extends this inquiry of quantifying landscape pattern to predict automobile use by drawing on satellite data in order to gain greater spatial coverage of household profiles. Furthermore, because choices about land development tend to have long-lasting impacts that span over decades, understanding the magnitude of this influence is critical to the design of policies to reduce emissions and other negative externalities associated with car use. Combining household survey data from Germany with satellite imagery and other geo-referenced data sources, we address this topic with an econometric analysis of the relation between landscape pattern and automobile dependency. Specifically, we employ a two-part model to investigate two dimensions of car use, the discrete decision to own a car and, conditional upon ownership, the continuous decision of how far to drive. Results indicate that landscape pattern, as captured by measures of both land cover (e.g. the extent of open space and landscape diversity) and land use (e.g. the density and composition of regional businesses) are important predictors of car ownership and use. Other policy-relevant variables, such as fuel prices and public transit infrastructure, are also identified as important correlates. Based on the magnitude of our estimates we conclude that carefully considered land development measures, ones that encourage dense development and mixed use, can have beneficial impacts in reducing car dependency that extend far into the future. Key terms: Landscape pattern, Satellite imagery, Germany, Two-part model
  Authors: Keller, Rose; Vance, Colin
  Authors: Keller, Rose; Vance, Colin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-0810
• Empirical Evidence on Ratio of Means Problem and Estimation of Values of Time with Stated Preference Data
  Abstract: Values of time calculated as the ratios of time and cost parameters for groups of individuals do not correspond to the average of the individual values of time where these individual values are heterogeneous. This is known as the ratio of means problem. Empirical evidence on the implications of the ratio of means problem for value of time estimation is provided in the form of a meta-analysis of 31 sets of binary choice stated preference data for car drivers. A deterministic, cost-minimizing methodology is used to estimate individual values of time for each data set. Meta-regression analysis reveals systematic between-study variation related to the proportion of non-traders in the data. Comparison of the averages of the individual values of time with the corresponding values of time derived from binary logit models shows that the latter values tend to be significantly lower across a range of sensitivity tests, even under conservative assumptions. Awareness of the ratio of means problem and its potential consequences is important, particularly for meta-analyses or benchmarking exercises that include values of time derived using a variety of methodologies. It is recommended that in future, methodologies for estimating values of time that explicitly allow for heterogeneity should be preferred. For binary choice data with small numbers of attributes, the deterministic cost-minimizing methodology presented here is recommended as a useful complement to more computationally intensive techniques.
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Authors: Mitrani, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0828
• A Mode-Neutral Innovation Framework for Commuter Transport: Part 1
  Abstract: Innovation in all fields is recognized as a high risk activity, with many more failures than successes. In commercial product and service innovation, “Customer-Outcome Driven” innovation has been recognized by leading companies as a more effective foundation for innovation. Central to the outcome-driven approach is the methodical identification of desired customer outcomes and the use of survey data to identify underserved outcomes that represent opportunities for development of innovative solutions. This paper explores the application of this technique to commuter travel, to the job of ‘making a daily trip to and from a destination’, with the overall goal of understanding what it would take to increase “passengership” and concludes that the approach delivers potentially useful results. Further research is recommended, and the authors call for metropolitan areas to help with further data collection, solution development and deployment.
  Authors: Minett, Paul; Pearce, John H.
  Authors: Minett, Paul; Pearce, John H.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 559
  Paper Number: 13-0838
• Reserve Capacity on Multiphase Signalized Road Network with Stochastic User Equilibrium
  Abstract: In this paper, a mathematical programming is firstly formulated to describe drivers¡¯ route choice behavior on multi-phase signalized road network based on stochastic user principles while taking signal delays into account. Then, an integrated method is used to maximize the reserve capacity of multi-phase signalized road network with Stochastic User Equation (SUE). The sensitivity analysis algorithm based on difference is presented to find maximum increase in travel demands at different level of knowledge the drivers have about route travel costs. The application of the proposed model on an example network indicates that the put forward algorithm can efficiently solve the bi-level problems and the transportation decision makers can adjust the signal plans and ATIS (Advanced Traveler Information System) information simultaneously to maximize the reserve capacity on multi-phase signalized road network.
  Authors: Wang, Jian; Deng, Wei
  Authors: Wang, Jian; Deng, Wei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 231
  Paper Number: 13-0836
• Investigation of Required Travel Survey Size for Training an Activity-Based Traffic Demand Model for Flanders Implemented in the FEATHERS Simulation Platform
  Abstract: It is known from many years now that operational activity-based models need a lot of survey data to incorporate behavioural decision making of people. While there have been contributions from the field of statistics about how much survey data is needed to come to reliable estimates of behaviour; an obvious question which is often overlooked in the domain is how much survey data is really necessary to obtain an activity-based model that is sufficiently competent and accurate. This question is not only scientifically challenging and interesting, but also can significantly reduce data collection costs and is also very useful for practitioners. A very appealing question would be whether an activity-based model could also be trained with a smaller survey data set without losing too much model quality. This paper tries to explore this research question in the case of an activity-based model for Flanders (Belgium) inside the ‘Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS’ (FEATHERS) framework. As the scheduler in this study is based on decision trees, progressive sampling is being applied in order to investigate accuracy for all discrete choice decision trees. Based on the results of this investigation, it is demonstrated that for some decision trees the activity-based survey data set can be very small without losing accuracy, while for other decision trees bigger data sets are needed.
  Authors: Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Authors: Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-0864
• Using a Multi-agent Simulation Tool to Estimate the Carpooling Potential
  Abstract: It is a general trend in transportation planning to try to minimize the negative externalities of the transport system as a whole, such as noise or pollutant emissions. One of the ways to achieve this is to reduce the number of cars on the roads, for instance by increasing car occupancy. This paper focuses on evaluating the potential of this possibility. The factors influencing this potential are manifold: behavioral, structural (number of potential matches), organisational (quality of available services to meet co-travelers)... In previous studies, mainly the behavioral and organisational factors were analyzed. This paper focuses on the structural factor. To do so, the highly detailed daily plans generated by the multi-agent microsimulation software MATSim are searched for potential matches. Information about the potential matches is used to assess the feasibility of carpooling. In particular, it is shown that when considering only structural factors, it is possible to group most of the car trips into two-person car-pools. The results of the analysis lead to the conclusion that there is no structural obstacle to carpooling development, and thus that the causes of the low share of this mode is to search in both the behavioral and organisational factors.
  Authors: Dubernet, Thibaut; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Authors: Dubernet, Thibaut; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 559
  Paper Number: 13-0866
• Application of Generalized Estimating Equations for Crash Frequency Modeling in Developing Countries
  Abstract: Researchers in developing countries are often faced with the small sample size issue in the crash data during the crash frequency analysis, due to the incomplete crash and information recording and reporting systems. Traditional generalized linear model (GLM) for crash frequency modeling is usually based on crash counts aggregated over multiple years, and would have a poor performance by the limitation of sample size. Treating crash count in each year as a separate observation could enlarge the sample size, but would create temporal correlation among crashes in different years which could bias the model estimates. In this study, we evaluated the application of generalized estimating equation (GEE) procedure to deal with the above dilemma faced by researchers in developing countries. Using a four-year crash data at exit ramps on a freeway in China, two traditional GLMs based on yearly aggregated and disaggregated data as well as a GLM with GEE procedure were estimated. The results showed that the models based on yearly disaggregated data generally performed better than the one with yearly aggregated data due to the enlarged sample size. The traditional GLM underestimated the standard errors of coefficients for explanatory variables which could lead to incorrect inferences. The GEE procedure with a exchangeable correlation structure successively captured the temporal correlation in the longitudinal data of this study and was considered to outperform the traditional GLMs in estimating the impacts of variables on crash counts.
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng; Zha, Liteng
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Xu, Chengcheng; Zha, Liteng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-0891
• Uniquely Satisfied: Exploring Cyclist Satisfaction
  Abstract: Despite increasing interest and focus on cycling planning and infrastructure, many research and policy frameworks overlook two important aspects of cycling: motivations and trip satisfaction. While many studies have found that cyclists are more satisfied with their commute than other mode users, few have explored why. We hypothesize that different types of cyclist—defined by reasons cited for cycling and seasonal mode patterns—will derive satisfaction from their cycling commute in different ways. Therefore, this study attempts to 1) group respondents into 'cyclist types' based on a cluster analysis of motivations for cycling and their alternate (winter) mode, and 2) understand how these personal characteristics moderate the relationship between built environment (e.g. land use, connectivity) and trip characteristics (e.g. distance) and expressed trip satisfaction. Similar to previous research, cyclists are found to be more satisfied with their commute compared to other mode users. Year-round cyclists are less satisfied with their travel than those who only cycle in good weather; while "Cycling Enthusiasts" are significantly more satisfied than most cyclists motivated by convenience. Surprisingly, the expected relationship between distance, slope, time and objectively measured elements of the built environment and satisfaction was not found. This work emphasizes the need to look beyond the built environment and trip characteristics to better understand cyclist trip satisfaction.
  Authors: Willis, Devon Paige; Manaugh, Kevin; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Authors: Willis, Devon Paige; Manaugh, Kevin; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-0943
• Exploring the Impact of Unfamiliar Transit Travel on Attitudes and Behavior
  Abstract: Past research has found that unfamiliar travel on public transport can be an unpleasant experience while research in psychology has shown first impressions to be integral to all attitude development due to a phenomenon referred to as the ‘primacy effect’. However the ‘primacy effect’ concept has never been explored in the context or urban transit. This paper explores the experience of unfamiliar travel and its potential importance by comparing first trip experiences, which in this study context means first time using public transport to travel to a university campus, with perceptions of overall trip experiences through a university access survey. The results show that unfamiliar travel by transit tends to be a more negative experience than familiar trips. ‘Ease of navigation’ (wayfinding), ‘emotional state’, ‘ease of navigating transfer’, and ‘ease of ticketing’ were particularly negative aspects of first trips. Unfamiliar travel was found to be significantly correlated with overall ratings of transit suggesting a strong basis for the ‘primacy effect’ in public transport. Results also suggest that first trip experiences are significantly correlated with subsequent travel behaviour but only for ‘choice travellers’ i.e. those with access to a car and not for ‘captive’ transit users. This is a novel research area with important implications for travel behaviour and user attitude research. Suggestions for future research are relevance to transport practitioners are made.
  Authors: Schmitt, Lorelei; Currie, Graham; Delbosc, Alexa
  Authors: Schmitt, Lorelei; Currie, Graham; Delbosc, Alexa
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0946
• Probability Distortion in Multiattribute Decisions: From Risk to Ambiguity
  Abstract: Transport users face complex decisions. Not only the consequences of their decisions are uncertain, but they generally involve several attributes, such as time and money. Time-money tradeoffs have been intensively studied in transport economics, and a growing attention is now paid to users' attitudes towards uncertainty related to transport decisions. The present paper makes two contributions to the transportation literature: one theoretical and the other experimental. First, we propose a fast and tractable method for measuring Prospect Theory parameters capturing attitudes towards probabilities (decision weighting function) and attitudes towards losses (loss aversion parameter). The elicitation method does not involve the value function and is particularly suitable in complex multi-attribute decisions were the shape of the value function is unknown.Second, we present the results of an experiment that uses the proposed elicitation method to measure, at individual level, probability distortion in decisions involving both time and money consequences in two contexts: risk (where probabilities are given) and ambiguity (where the probability distribution is unknown). An original experimental setup that exposes subjects to real gains and losses for money and time is built for the purpose. Inverse S-shaped probability weighting and loss aversion is observed for risk, and probability distortion is more pronounced in ambiguity.
  Authors: Kemel, Emmanuel; Paraschiv, Corina
  Authors: Kemel, Emmanuel; Paraschiv, Corina
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0978
• Using multi-source GPS data to characterize multiday driving patterns and fuel use in a large city region
  Abstract: The paper describes the use of GPS data obtained from both commercial and project-specific sources to examine the travel behavior and fuel consumption patterns of drivers over a three-day period in Gauteng Province, South Africa. Data for commercial (truck and light delivery vehicle) traffic are obtained from a commercial fleet management provider, which continuously tracks the movements of 42,000 vehicles. Data for private car users come from a panel of 720 drivers, whose multiday driving activity is tracked using mobile passive GPS loggers. We analyze and compare the driving behavior of the two driver populations in terms of total distance travelled, spatial patterns (e.g. the amount of travel on different road types) and temporal variations (e.g. variations across time of day and across multiple days). The detailed nature of GPS data also permits the estimation of fuel consumption at a very disaggregate level (by link and time of day), and the identification of differences between user groups, which have significant implications for transport and energy policy. We identify research needs related to the collection and integration of GPS data from multiple sources for model calibration and program evaluation.
  Authors: Venter, Christoffel; Joubert, Johan W.
  Authors: Venter, Christoffel; Joubert, Johan W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-1033
• Accessibility to Urban Parks in Montreal from the Perspective of Children
  Abstract: Parks are elemental components of urban environments that provide environmental value and serve valuable social functions. In particular, urban parks provide spaces for physical activity and may help reduce the risk of obesity and other adverse health outcomes. In order to enjoy the beneficial opportunities for activities in parks, users must have reasonable access to these resources. A starting point for inquiries about park utilization and the potential benefits of urban green spaces is an assessment of their geographical accessibility. Of particular interest, in terms of potential users of parks, are children, whose geographical range is limited by their ability to traverse space using non-motorized modes of transportation, or by their dependence on adults for common forms of motorized mobility. The objective of this paper is to measure accessibility to urban parks from the perspective of children traveling by walking in the island of Montreal, Canada. We evaluate the relationship between the distribution of children population and conditions of accessibility to urban parks, in order to understand the potential for use and possible spatial disparities in the distribution of valuable environmental resources. Implementation of accessibility measures is supported by statistical analysis of trip length using Montreal’s 2008 Household Travel Surveys database. Estimates of trip length for a desired child profile, based on attributes such as age, gender, income class, family structure, as well as geographical location are used to calculate accessibility to urban parks. This research contributes to the assessment of the distribution of access to urban parks by children, and can inform planners and policy makers in order to improve the supply of public facilities (parks) from a transportation perspective.
  Authors: Reyes, Mario; Paez, Antonio; Morency, Catherine
  Authors: Reyes, Mario; Paez, Antonio; Morency, Catherine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1058
• Leveraging the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) for Efficient Transit Analysis
  Abstract: Since 2007, the transit industry has benefited from a widely adopted data standard called the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) which has enabled the development of numerous traveler information tools, namely transit trip planners. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate the potential for GTFS feeds to be used as a data source for transit analyses such as those found in the Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual. Three primary project tasks include an analysis of GTFS field usage by different agencies; an analysis of a single agency at the stop, route and system level; and a batch analysis and comparison of 50 large transit agencies in North America. The experience of developing scripts and database queries for this project compared to alternatives such as “screen-scraping” schedules from transit websites or parsing printed schedules suggests that GTFS is a highly efficient data source and proves the importance of broadly accepted data standards. The methodology documented in this paper and the open-source scripts, which have been made available online, will be useful for any analyst or researcher who has tasks related to analyzing single or multiple transit systems at the stop, route or system level.
  Authors: Wong, James Christopher
  Authors: Wong, James Christopher
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-1070
• Integrating Traffic Router and Microsimulator into Land Use and Travel Demand Model
  Abstract: This paper describes a first-of-its-kind attempt at integrating a dynamic and disaggregated land use model with a traffic microsimulator and compares its predictions of land use to those from an integration of the same land use model with a more traditional four-step travel demand model. For our study area of Chittenden County, Vermont, we used a 40-year simulation beginning in 1990. Predicted differences in residential units between models for 2030 broken down by town correlated significantly with predicted differences in accessibility. The two towns with the greatest predicted differences in land use and accessibility are also the towns that currently have the most severe traffic bottlenecks and poorest route redundancy. Our results suggest that our particular integration of a microsimulator with a disaggregated land use model is technically feasible but that in the context of an isolated, small metropolitan area, the differences in predicted land use are small.
  Authors: Troy, Austin
  Authors: Troy, Austin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-1091
• Quantity and Quality of Productive Use of Transit Commuting Time: A Heckman Model
  Abstract: In North America, the average individual taking public transportation spends about 45 minutes commuting one way each day. This equates to about 398 hours per year and thus ways to reduce travel time are imperative. Rather than attempting to reduce travel time directly, changing the perspective of how commuting time is spent by improving the productive use of time provides a more cost effective solution. This paper explored and measured the extent that bus commuters are currently using their time actively during in-vehicle travel time and bus-stop waiting time. Heckman’s selection method was used to incorporate passengers who do not use their time actively to correct for sample selection bias and model the decision to use time actively as a two stage process. Average quantity and quality of primary activity time was found to be 66% and 20 minutes, respectively. The impact of ICT is predominant in almost all models tested, with degree of crowding and gender being a major factor in one’s choice to use time actively. Given that individuals are able to work productively during their transit commute, commuters will in hopes be more attracted to use transit by having this advantage over driving. If being productive does have an influence on an individual’s travel mode choice, there could be important implications on transportation modelling and demand management.
  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua; Lung, Allison; Guo, Zhan
  Authors: Zhao, Jinhua; Lung, Allison; Guo, Zhan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 539
  Paper Number: 13-1100
• Multi-Directional Flow as Touch-Stone to Assess Models of Pedestrian Dynamics
  Abstract: For simulation models of pedestrian dynamics there are always the issues of calibration and validation. These are usually done by comparing measured properties of the dynamics found in observation, experiments and simulation in certain scenarios. For this the scenarios first need to be sensitive to parameter changes of a particular model or – if models are compared – differences between models. Second it is helpful if the exhibited differences can be expressed in quantities which are as simple as possible ideally a single number. Such a scenario is proposed in this contribution together with evaluation measures. In an example evaluation of a particular model it is shown that the proposed evaluation measures are very sensitive to parameter changes and therefore summarize differences effects of parameter changes and differences between models efficiently, sometimes in a single number. It is shown how the symmetry which exists in the achiral geometry of the proposed example scenario is broken in particular simulation runs exhibiting chiral dynamics, while in the statistics of 1,000 simulation runs there is a symmetry between left- and right-chiral dynamics. In the course of the symmetry breaking differences between models and parameter settings are amplified which is the origin of the high sensitivity of the scenario against parameter changes.
  Authors: Kretz, Tobias
  Authors: Kretz, Tobias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1160
• Network Design of Logistics Systems with Expedited Shipment Services
  Abstract: This paper studied an integrated logistics network design problem that optimizes supplier locations and their assignments to terminal facilities, expedited shipment configurations and inventory management strategies in an uncertain environment. We first formulated elementary models for certain special case problems and discuss their model properties and solution methods. Built on these developments, we proposed a mathematical programming model that minimizes the sum of supplier set-up costs, expected shipment costs for both regular and expedited services, and expected inventory holding cost under stochastic demand rates and transportation lead times for a general network logistics system throughout the planning horizon. Due to the consideration of interdependent operational components including inventory management and shipment expedition, the proposed model is of high non-linearities and involve complex discrete structures. After studying problem element properties, we developed a customized solution approach based on the Lagrangian relaxation technique that can solve the model efficiently and accurately. This approach has been tested on a number of instances on three logistics networks of different scales, and their results uniformly showed that this approach can solve a realistic problem instance to its exact optimum or a near-optimum solution in a short time. We presented extensive experimental results to draw managerial insights into how problem settings and key parameter values affect the optimal design results, including cost component magnitudes, transportation configurations, inventory management strategies and network layouts. We noted that under the optimal design, utilizing expedited shipment services actually does not incur too much extra cost overall while guaranteeing service reliability. We also found under the integrated design, all planning and operational components complement each other in the optimal way, and thus it is important and necessary to consider all the planning and operational decisions all together in a holistic design framework.
  Authors: Li, Xiaopeng
  Authors: Li, Xiaopeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-1208
• Models for Anticipating Nonmotorized Travel Choices and Role of the Built Environment
  Abstract: This paper uses detailed travel data from the Seattle metropolitan area to evaluate the effects of built-environment variables on the use of non-motorized (bike + walk) travel modes. Several model specifications are used to understand and explain non-motorized travel behavior in terms of household, person and built-environment (BE) variables. Marginal effects of covariate effects for models of vehicle ownership levels, intrazonal trip-making, destination and mode choices, non-motorized trip counts per household, and miles traveled (both motorized and non-motorized) are presented. Mode and destination choice models were estimated separately for interzonal and intrazonal trips and for each of three different trip purposes, to recognize the distinct behaviors at play when making shorter versus longer trips and serving different activities.The results underscore the importance of street connectivity (quantified as the number of 3-way and 4-way intersections in a half-mile radius), higher bus stop density, and greater non-motorized access in promoting lower vehicle ownership levels (after controlling for household size, income, neighborhood density and so forth), higher rates of non-motorized trip generation (per day), and higher likelihoods of non-motorized mode choices. Intrazonal trip likelihoods rose with street connectivity, transit availability, and land use mixing. Across all BE variables tested, street structure offered the greatest predictive benefits, alongside accessibility indices (for both motorized and nonmotorized access). For example, non-motorized trip counts are estimated to rise 7% following a 1% increase in this variable, and walk probabilities by 27% following a one standard deviation increase in this index at the destination zone. Regional and local accessibility and density (of population plus jobs) variables were also important, depending on response being modeled. Case study applications illuminate when and to what extent significant travel behavior changes may be witnessed, as land use settings and other variables are changed.
  Authors: Khan, Mobashwir; Kockelman, Kara; Xiong, Xiaoxia
  Authors: Khan, Mobashwir; Kockelman, Kara; Xiong, Xiaoxia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1240
• Accuracy of Geo-imputation: An Approach to Capture Micro-Environment
  Abstract: The role of built environment in travel behavior has seen increased interest in strategic transportation planning. To capture relationships between travel behavior and the built environment, micro-environment variables representing infrastructure and land uses surrounding trip origins and destinations are being used as explanatory variables in travel demand models. Buffers of various sizes can be created around origins or destinations in order to capture the micro-environments. A key requirement is to know the exact latitude/longitude of the location. However, such information is commonly removed from public use data due to privacy concerns. To assess if synthetic geo-imputed residences can overcome the removal of exact location information, two North Carolina activity-based travel survey datasets (the Research Triangle survey, N=4,724 and Charlotte survey, N=3,310) were analyzed. The fundamental question is whether the geo-imputed micro-environmental measurements can be used to sufficiently accurately model travel behavior. Comparisons were conducted between actual residences, geo-imputed residences and residences assumed to be located at centroids of census blocks (as is current practice). The results indicate that: 1) census block centroid assignment results in statistically significant systematic errors when calculating the accessibility measures; 2) geo-imputation based on TAZ level can provide reasonably accurate accessibility measures in larger buffer sizes of 0.75 miles, but not in smaller buffers of 0.25 miles; 3) geo-imputation based on census block level provided reasonably accurate accessibility measures that were sufficiently accurate for specifying travel behavior models.
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Khattak, Asad J.; Chen, Juyin
  Authors: Wang, Xin; Khattak, Asad J.; Chen, Juyin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0700
• Evaluation of Impacts of Urban Road Pricing on Social and Spatial Inequalities
  Abstract: In the context of “sustainable” urban development, this paper evaluates the impact of setting up traffic toll zones, cordon pricing, on the evolution of inequalities based on a study of the conurbation of Lyon. It simulates a new charging policy implemented by imposing an urban road pricing to analyse its impacts on the evolution of inequalities with respect to the current situation used as reference. Four different types of indicator are used to achieve this. Besides “specific” indicators of inequalities such as those of Gini, Theil and Atkinson, the gravity-based measurement of accessibility is also considered to enlighten public decision-makers on the evolution of inequalities. In agreement with the literature, our results show that the different indicators of inequality produce highly contrasted and sometimes contradictory results on both the scale of the zone and that the city. Furthermore, although an improvement of accessibility was observed, notably for the central zones, it is the first ring (adjacent to the toll zone) that will be affected most negatively by the toll. This is confirmed by the three indicators. Lastly, the indicators of Theil and Atkinson alone show that introducing a toll can lead to reducing inequalities for the zones furthest away.
  Authors: Souche, Stéphanie
  Authors: Souche, Stéphanie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-0898
• Exploring the Dynamics in Travel Time Frontiers
  Abstract: The role of time in activity-travel behavior is of great interest to researchers because people are essentially using up time when they travel and participate in activities. Understanding people’s travel time expenditures and the factors contributing to such expenditures can provide valuable insights into activity-travel demand under a range of policy scenarios. While the travel time expenditure constitutes the actual time spent traveling in a day, it does not necessarily constitute the upper limit of the amount of time that people are able and willing to dedicate to travel. In this context, it may be feasible to define an unobserved travel time frontier which represents an upper bound (under usual conditions) on the amount of time that people are able to dedicate to travel. A stochastic frontier modeling approach is adopted to estimate the travel time frontier, as this is an unobserved behavioral characteristic. Models are estimated for a sample of households from four different years of the National Household Travel Survey in the United States to explore the dynamics of the frontier over a 25 year time period. It is found that frontier values are decreasing for workers and remaining largely steady for non-workers. This suggests that both the travel time frontier, and the expenditure that is influenced by the frontier, may be reaching levels of saturation despite productivity gains and other efficiencies afforded by mobile technology and other services. The findings are indicative of a slowdown in the growth of per-capita travel demand, at least in the foreseeable future.
  Authors: Volosin, Sarah Elia; Paul, Sanjay; Christian, Keith P.; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.
  Authors: Volosin, Sarah Elia; Paul, Sanjay; Christian, Keith P.; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 539
  Paper Number: 13-0981
• Empirical Study of Crowd and Pedestrian Dynamics: Impact of Different Angle Paths and Groupings
  Abstract: An analytical study is proposed in this paper to investigate pedestrian crowd from a multi-disciplinary approach (i.e. traffic engineering and social science) focusing on pedestrian movement dynamics in high-density situations. Taking advantage of previous studies that highlighted the importance of turning movements of crowd during evacuations, we empirically investigated the impact of angled paths on orderly crowd egress flows. We also proposed to consider the local spatial interactions among people within the crowd, taking into account the presence of groups. Results of the flow rates level and walking speed of different scenarios studied in this work are presented (0°, 45°, 60° and 90° angle degrees). These showed that in high-density situations the walking speed of group members was lower compared to the singles within all scenarios studied. Likewise, the angle path with 60° degrees (compared to the scenario of corridor with 0° degrees) has a significant negative impact on both the flow rate and walking speed. These results could be of notable interest for all generic crowd models aiming at replicating crowd dynamics
  Authors: Sarvi, Majid; Gorrini, Andrea; Bandini, Stefania; Dias, Charitha; Shiwakoti, Nirajan
  Authors: Sarvi, Majid; Gorrini, Andrea; Bandini, Stefania; Dias, Charitha; Shiwakoti, Nirajan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1136
• Dynamic System Optimal Routing In Multimodal Transit Network
  Abstract: The system optimal routing problem has been widely studied for road network while it is less considered for public transit system. Traditional shortest-path-based multimodal itinerary guidance systems may deteriorate the system performance when the assigned lines become congested. For this issue, we formulate the dynamic system optimal routing model for multimodal transit system. The transit system is represented by a multilevel graph to explicitly simulate passenger flow and transit system operations. A solution algorithm based on the cross entropy method is proposed, and its performance is compared with the method of successive averages in static and dynamic cases. Numerical study on a simple multimodal transit network provides the basis for comparing the system optimal routing and user optimal routing under different congestion levels.
  Authors: Ma, Tai-Yu; Lebacque, Jean-Patrick
  Authors: Ma, Tai-Yu; Lebacque, Jean-Patrick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation
  Session: 279
  Paper Number: 13-1247
• Enhancing External Cordon Travel Forecasting Methods for International Border Areas: Tour-Based Analysis of Mexican Residents’ Travel in San Diego County, California
  Abstract: In San Diego County, California, residents of Mexico make an estimated 350,000 trips daily and account for twenty-one percent of weekday boardings on the local light rail system. To adequately plan for this market, a border intercept survey and activity diary was used to develop a tour-based microsimulation model of travel made by Mexican residents within the region. Given an exogenous macroeconomic forecast of the total number of border crossings, the model predicts the volume of travelers using each port of entry, the locations of primary destinations within San Diego County, the frequency and locations of intermediate stops, the modes of travel across the border and between stateside locations, and the contributions from Mexican residents to highway and transit facility usage in the United States. The model’s design is compared and contrasted with typical external cordon methods and recently developed bi-national models. Empirical results show that the sensitivity of external cordon travel forecasting methods to characteristics of international border areas can be substantially enhanced with this approach.
  Authors: Hood, Jeffrey; Freedman, Joel; Sun, Wu; Ouyang, Ziyang; Samarin, Alex
  Authors: Hood, Jeffrey; Freedman, Joel; Sun, Wu; Ouyang, Ziyang; Samarin, Alex
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-0892
• Role of Bicycle in Limiting Transport Poverty in The Netherlands
  Abstract: The Netherlands is well-known for its high share of bicycle use and its relatively compact cities, suggesting that transport poverty may well be less of a problem than in other developed countries. This paper explores the role of the bicycle in the avoidance of transport poverty, based on two exploratory studies. The first study focuses on low-income households and shows that the bicycle does limit transport poverty, but is of limited importance in providing access to the labor market. The second study, exploring the ability of car-less households to maintain social networks, underlines the importance of the bicycle, but also shows that the bicycle is used very selectively by elderly residents and is of limited relevance for households with a social network spanning beyond the urban borders.
  Authors: Martens, Karel
  Authors: Martens, Karel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-1118
• Interrelationship and Order of Decision between Bicycle Choice and Trip Chain Pattern
  Abstract: Choices of bicycle mode and trip chain pattern are important decisions in individuals¡¯ daily activities. Little is known about the interrelationship between the choice of bicycle and the pattern of trip chain. It is interesting to ask if a decision on bicycle usage is made before planning a trip chain or is dependent on a decision of trip chain. This study aims to explore the relationships between bicycle choice and trip-chaining pattern and capture the order between the two decisions. Using the data extracted from the household survey in a medium-sized city in China, co-evolutionary approach combined with binary logit and multinomial logit models is estimated. The results show that there are more bicycle usages in subsistence trip chains than in non-subsistence chains. In the majority of cases the trip chain is planned before the decision on bicycle choice, especially when the trip is related to subsistence activities. 76.33% of travelers who use bicycle for travel determine the trip chain first and choose to use bicycle accordingly. Only 25.69% of travelers who make mode choice first select bicycle as the trip mode. Findings are discussed to assist the development of policies to promote the bicycle usage.
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Yang, Chen; Wang, Yong; Jiang, Guojun
  Authors: Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Yang, Chen; Wang, Yong; Jiang, Guojun
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-1133
• Intelligence-Based Route Selection Model of Passenger Flow in a Transportation Station
  Abstract: This paper proposes an intelligence-based approach to predicting passengers¡¦ route choice behaviour, which is crucial to the effective utilisation of transportation stations. Although intelligence-based model (e.g., artificial neural network) have been developed rapidly and widely adopted in various fields in the last few decades, their application to predict human decision-making in pedestrian flows is limited, as the actual route choice decisions of passengers involve human behaviour. A comprehensive methodology for capturing route choice behaviour is still lacking, because extensive labour and time resources are required to collect passenger movement data from different stations. In this study, a four-month site-survey was carried out to collect actual route choice behaviour information in nine transportation stations in Hong Kong during peak hours by following passengers and recording their chosen route. We developed an intelligent model to capture passengers¡¦ route choice decision-making that achieved a prediction accuracy of almost 88% and this intelligent model is proposed to implement in the simulation tools for passenger flow simulation.
  Authors: Yuen, J. K. K.; Lee, E. W. M.; Lo, S. M.; Yuen, R. K. K.
  Authors: Yuen, J. K. K.; Lee, E. W. M.; Lo, S. M.; Yuen, R. K. K.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1134
• Innovative Online Research Tools Investigating Attitudes Toward Cars Among Young People
  Abstract: Young people are less car-reliant, a worldwide trend documented in US, Europe and Australian contexts. However little research explains how attitudes are shaping these trends. Popular hypotheses are the (i) changing social status of the car, (ii) growing role of electronic communications and (iii) growing environmental awareness, but no academic research has directly explored these issues.This paper uses innovative online research tools to explore these issues with young people. While the research was qualitative a range of common themes emerged. In general results support the hypothesis that cars have less social status in terms of prestige however they were still considered an important aspect of maturity and adulthood and of critical value for mobility Social status and the car may thus have changed from being a luxury to one of maturity. How this affects car travel is unclear.Results support the view that electronic communications are of growing importance although they are not replacing face to face interaction and unlikely to be reducing travel. Young people spoke passionately about the importance of time spent with friends and emphasised how transport could facilitate/ hinder this. It is difficult to see this as a strong basis for reduced car orientation.Not one person in the sample spontaneously mentioned that environmental concerns shaped their travel choices. Even when prompted these concerns were far removed from travel decisions.The paper concludes with a discussion of key findings, discusses the effectiveness of the methods used and outlines future areas for research in this field.
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Authors: Delbosc, Alexa; Currie, Graham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1141
• Estimating Service-Related Traffic Demand from Trip Chain Data
  Abstract: Commercial traffic constitutes a significant part of total traffic. While on long distances goods traffic prevails, particularly in metropolitan areas service related traffic (i.e. traffic resulting from services delivered to customers at home, offices, constructions sites etc.) takes the lead – and is continuously growing.It is common practice to forecast transport demand for passenger traffic and goods traffic. Dedicated models for service related traffic are still rare. This is not only due to the recognition of the particularities of this special part of traffic among transport planners, it is also due to the complexity of analyzing and depicting service related traffic.One characteristic of service related traffic is that it consists of tours connecting sometimes more than one destination with the origin of the tour. Furthermore, many trips are trips with commercial vehicles, registered by a company or organization, but also private vehicle owners use their cars to some extent for commercial trips. This poses the opportunity to use trip chain data available for private and commercial vehicles to derive total transport demand of service related trips from a sample population.This article introduces such a methodology to extrapolate traffic demand from trip chain data. It is not only applicable to service related traffic, but to all tour based traffic, if empirical tour patterns are available. A regular survey of the German Federal Motor Transport Authority together with detailed spatial and demographic data was used as input to the model. The city of Berlin served as a case study.
  Authors: Schneider, Sebastian; Wolfermann, Axel J.
  Authors: Schneider, Sebastian; Wolfermann, Axel J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-1181
• Assessing Impacts of Teleworking Policy on Crash Occurrence: Case of Flanders, Belgium
  Abstract: Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the effectiveness of transportation systems by changing travel behavior. The primary objective of such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to simulate the traffic safety impact of conducting a teleworking scenario (i.e. 5% of the working population engages in teleworking) in the study area, Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at a geographically aggregated level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at an aggregate level. Given that crash occurrences are often spatially heterogeneous and are affected by many spatial variables, the existence of spatial correlation in the data is also examined. The results indicate the necessity of accounting for the spatial correlation when developing crash prediction models. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) within the Geographically Weighted Generalized Linear Modeling (GWGLM) framework are developed to incorporate the spatial variations in association between the number of crashes (NOCs) (including fatal, severe and slight injury crashes recorded between 2004 and 2007) and other explanatory variables. Different exposure, network and socio-demographic variables of 2200 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) are considered as predictors of crashes. An activity-based transportation model framework is adopted to produce detailed exposure metrics. This enables to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models. In this study, several ZCPMs with different severity levels and crash types are developed to predict the NOCs for both the null and the teleworking scenario. The models show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the teleworking scenario due to its impact on the reduction of total Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) by 3.15%. Implementing the teleworking scenario is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 1.426 billion and total NOCs to decline by 2.62%.
  Authors: Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert
  Authors: Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 815
  Paper Number: 13-1050
• An Overview of Shared Bicycle/Bus Lanes in the United States
  Abstract: As urban areas continue to grow in population and traffic congestion increases, more cities are looking for ways to improve multimodal mobility within constrained right-of-way. Where there are at least two through lanes for general traffic in each direction, one option is to designate the outside lanes for shared use by bicycles and buses only. A study was conducted for the Florida Department of Transportation to identify where shared bicycle/bus lanes are presently operating in U.S. cities, describe their design and operational characteristics, identify the benefits and barriers to implementing such facilities, and develop recommendations to consider their use on the Florida State Highway System. The review found that few states and municipalities have design standards for shared bicycle/bus lanes, and that primary issues for design and operation include lane width, operating speed, passing procedures, conflict with right-turning vehicles, and enforcement.
  Authors: Hendricks, Sara Jane; Hillsman, Edward; Koos, Mary Anne; Fiebe, JoAnne
  Authors: Hendricks, Sara Jane; Hillsman, Edward; Koos, Mary Anne; Fiebe, JoAnne
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation
  Session: 347
  Paper Number: 13-1217
• Linking Elderly Transport Mobility and Subjective Well-being: Multivariate Latent Modeling Approach
  Abstract: It is widely accepted that mobility is critical for social integration in a complex urban society and is essential to the maintenance of life satisfaction and well-being. Subjective well-being has recently become a topic of interest within the transportation research community. In this paper we aim at understanding the fundamental linkages between subjective well-being or happiness and transport mobility/travel behavior of the elderly population. The research here is based on data from Disability and Use of Time (DUST) 2009, which specifically targets senior couples with an average age of 68 years. Using scores to a set of satisfaction questions about life, health, memory, finances, marriage, we estimate latent class clusters. This leads to four distinct clusters of respondents depending on the degree of happiness in each of the satisfaction questions. Using the membership to each cluster as a dependent variable, we estimate ordered probit and multinomial logistic regression models to study the relationship between clusters and individual characteristics including socio-demographics, activity patterns, time use and use of active modes (walking/bicycling). The results show that respondents who are engaging in activities out of home, socializing and enjoy better mobility, also report higher levels of subjective well-being leading to a better quality of life. The model findings also show that illness and pain are related to lower well-being and that quality of life in older age is correlated to mobility.
  Authors: Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Yoon, Seo Youn; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Authors: Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Yoon, Seo Youn; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1242
• A Spatial Autoregressive Multinomial Probit Model for Anticipating Land Use Change in Austin, Texas
  Abstract: This paper develops an estimation strategy for and then applies a spatial autoregressive multinomial probit (SAR MNP) model to account for both spatial clustering and cross-alternative correlation. Estimation is achieved using Bayesian techniques with Gibbs and generalized direct sampling. The model is applied to analyze land development decisions for undeveloped parcels over a 6-year period in Austin, Texas. Estimation results suggest that residential and commercial/civic development tends to favor more regularly shaped and smaller parcels, which may be related to parcel conversion costs and aesthetics. Longer distances to Austin’s central business district increase the likelihood of residential development, while reducing that of commercial/civic and office/industrial uses. Everything else constant, distances to a parcel’s nearest minor and major arterial roads are estimated to increase development likelihood in all use types, perhaps because development is more common in less densely developed locations (as proxied by fewer arterials). As expected, added soil slope is estimated to be negatively associated with all three types of development, though its effect on residential uses is not significant (perhaps due to some steeper terrains offering view benefits). Estimates of the cross-alternative correlations suggest that a parcel’s residential use “utility” or attractiveness tends to be negatively correlated with that of commercial/civic and office/industrial uses, while the latter two land uses exhibit some positive correlation. Using an inverse-distance weight matrix for each parcel’s closest 50 neighbors, the spatial autocorrelation coefficient is estimated to be 0.712, indicating a marked spatial clustering pattern for land development in the selected region.
  Authors: Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara; Damien, Paul
  Authors: Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara; Damien, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-1250
• A Multi-Criteria-Based Guideline for Marked and Unmarked Pedestrian Crosswalks at Unsignalized Intersections
  Abstract: There have been controversial perceptions with respect to the use of marked pedestrian crosswalks at unsignalized intersections over the years. Several agencies tend to prefer marked crosswalks at most locations with the expectation of improving pedestrian mobility and safety. However, several studies conclude that marked crosswalks actually involve higher pedestrian accident rates than unmarked crosswalks. Such controversial claims make it difficult for state and local agencies to develop policies pertaining to pedestrian crosswalks. Existing guidelines for determining marked and unmarked crosswalk types are normally presented as descriptive statements or mostly relying on a single dominate factor like pedestrian volume. One of the major issues lies in the lack of comprehensive consideration and interpretation of all potential variables. A new guideline is presented to help select marked and unmarked crosswalks at unsignalized intersections with no traffic signals or stop signs on the major street approach. The guideline is based on a combination of revised multi-criteria decision analysis methodologies, PROMETHEE and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. A ranking score considering potential factors, including variables such as volume, speed limit, and pedestrian related crash records is produced to represent the likelihood of using a marked or unmarked crosswalk. The proposed guideline was further applied to a case study involving 32 unsignalized intersections in Nevada and the study showed promising results with the guideline.
  Authors: Zhao, Yue
  Authors: Zhao, Yue
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1282
• Role of Commuter Benefits in Shaping Decision to Walk, Cycle, or Ride Transit to Work in Washington, D.C., Region
  Abstract: This study examines the relationship between commuter benefits and the likelihood to walk, cycle, or ride public transport to work in the Washington, DC region. The analysis examines individual level commute data along with information about multiple categories of commuter benefits, such as free car parking, public transport benefits and workplace facilities for cyclists and pedestrians. Data about full-time workers originate from the 2007/2008 Washington, DC Household Travel Survey. Results of a multinomial logistic regression model indicate that free car parking is significantly associated with lower levels of commuting by public transport as well as less walking and cycling to work. Public transport benefits are associated with higher levels of commuting by public transport as well as more walking and cycling to work. Benefits for walking and cycling are associated with higher levels of walking and cycling to work, as well as public transport use. Employees simultaneously offered free car parking, public transport benefits, and benefits for walking and cycling are significantly less likely to choose public transport. This suggests that free car parking may effectively counterweigh the incentives for walking, cycling, and public transport when benefit packages include free car parking alongside incentives for other modes. Results for control variables have expected signs and most are significant. Limitations of the study, relating to endogeneity, selection bias, and omitted variables, are discussed. These findings are consistent with other studies of commuting in the Washington, DC region as well as other studies of transportation mode choice and commuter benefits.
  Authors: Hamre, Andrea; Buehler, Ralph
  Authors: Hamre, Andrea; Buehler, Ralph
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 735
  Paper Number: 13-1429
• Transit to Eternal Youth: Life-cycle and Generational Trends in Greater Montreal Public Transport Mode Share, Canada
  Abstract: Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing 20th century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin-destination surveys of the Greater Montreal region (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work trips are studied for each survey year. Transit use growth between 2003 and 2008 is high and relatively universal, possibly reflecting 2008 period conditions such as a rapid gasoline price spike; as such, 2008 data are viewed with caution. Nevertheless, a general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies.
  Authors: Grimsrud, Michael A.; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Authors: Grimsrud, Michael A.; El-Geneidy, Ahmed M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1438
• Modeling Gender-Based Differences in Mode Choice Considering Time-Use Pattern: Analysis of Bicycle, Public Transit, and Car Use in Suzhou, China
  Abstract: Activity-travel behavior differs between women and men. Previous researches dealing with gender differences mainly pay attention to travel itself, but few focus on the interaction between time-use pattern and travel mode choice. Based on the activity-travel survey data of Suzhou, China, data processing, gender-based descriptive analysis and rigorous significance tests are conducted. Then, multi-group structural equation modeling is adopted to explore the reason of gender-based differences in mode choice through comparing the interactions among socio-demographics, time-use pattern and mode choice for men and women. The results indicate that gender-based differences do exist in mode choice. Women prefer bicycle while men prefer traveling by car in Suzhou, and men¡¯s mode choice is not so easily to be affected by other travel mode as women¡¯s. Besides, gender-based differences exist in the magnitude or the sign of the interrelations among socio-demographics, time-use pattern and mode choice. It is better to explain gender-based differences in mode choice by including time-use pattern endogenously than through socio-demographics alone. Furthermore, the study shows that by examining the direct, indirect and total effects in the model system simultaneously, we are able to better capture the differences in mode choice across gender, and further understand the reason of those differences. Finally, some dedicated suggestions are presented for planners and government to ensure a healthy transportation system.
  Authors: Li, Dan; Wang, Wei; Yang, Min; Chen, Xuewu; Hua, Xuedong
  Authors: Li, Dan; Wang, Wei; Yang, Min; Chen, Xuewu; Hua, Xuedong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation; Society
  Session: 594
  Paper Number: 13-1445
• Online Stochastic Routing Incorporating Real-Time Traffic Information
  Abstract: This study develops on-line stochastic routing policies which identify the optimal next (path choice) action at the current decision node (intersection) for travelers, based on their preferring future paths with the shortest travel time, the lowest travel time variability, or a combination thereof, given the current network conditions. A modified label-correcting algorithm is provided to solve for the shortest path resulting from the proposed routing policies. Its running time is bounded by O(mn^2 ), where m and n are the number of arcs and nodes, respectively, in the network. Considering that real-time traffic information is usually available with a certain level of accuracy, the proposed on-line routing policy integrates an existing information fusion model by the authors (1), which provides real-time short-term arc travel time distributions by considering information accuracy. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed routing policies/algorithms as well as the impacts of real-time information accuracy on the online stochastic routing.
  Authors: Du, Lili; Peeta, Srinivas; Kim, Yong Hoon
  Authors: Du, Lili; Peeta, Srinivas; Kim, Yong Hoon
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-1477
• Chemical Reaction Optimization Approach to Solving the Environmentally Sustainable Network Design Problem
  Abstract: Nowadays the decision makers in transportation industry are being urged to instill environmental values into road network design decision-making. To evaluate a road network design, not only should it be cost-effective, but also sustainable. This article proposes a new methodology to consider all the environmental concerns into a network design problem (NDP). This proposed NDP is formulated as a bi-level program. The lower level problem is formulated as static UE-assignment model. In the upper level, total emission costs and noise costs are calculated as monetary terms into the objective function value and minimized with the total system travel time cost at the same time. It is known that such bi-level problem is NP-hard, a new metaheuristic called the Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO) method is implemented to solve it. This newly invented algorithm has been proved to have a wide application field and satisfying performance compared with other metaheuristics. Two benchmark city road networks with different scales are used to evaluate the performance of CRO. This study also addresses the importance of incorporating the environmental concerns into NDP sufficiently and the tradeoffs between different objective components are explored. It is found that CRO outperforms Genetic Algorithm (GA) on certain scenarios and have an overall comparable performance compared with GA.
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Wang, Yi; Wong, S. C.
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Wang, Yi; Wong, S. C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1619
• Null-Space Metric for Analysis of Partial Network Observability in Sensor Location Problems
  Abstract: This paper presents a new methodology and an intuitive metric for assessing the information quality of a set of (link) sensors in a network. This methodology is based on the concept of network observability, i.e. given a set of sensors covering a few links, what is the amount of information obtained on the rest of the network, where sensors are not installed.Existing approaches can efficiently find solutions for complete network observability, which means that through these methods one can identify the smallest number of links needed to fully determine the flows on the remaining set of links. Similar approaches can be found using route and OD pairs as variables. However, no comprehensive metric is found in literature that can quantify the quality of a solution in case of partial observability. This paper aims to fill this gap. This is a crucial contribution in this field, since even in small size networks the solution for full observability requires an exceedingly large amount of sensors.We tested this new methodology both on small toy networks, in order to analyze the properties of the metric and to explain and test the local search algorithms for optimal sensor positioning, and on real-sized networks. Comparison with partial observability methods proposed in other studies shows the benefits of the new methodology in finding the links that contain the largest deal of information in a network.
  Authors: Rinaldi, Marco; Corman, Francesco; Viti, Francesco
  Authors: Rinaldi, Marco; Corman, Francesco; Viti, Francesco
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 231
  Paper Number: 13-1671
• On the Existence of the Simultaneous Occurrence of Braess and Emission Paradoxes
  Abstract: Braess¡¦ paradox is well-known and examined. However, an emission paradox, an analogue to Braess¡¦ paradox for vehicular emissions, is not. Without considering the emission paradox, the road network improvement that mitigates congestion may increase harmful vehicular emissions. In this paper, we analytically examine the occurrence of the emission paradox and the simultaneous occurrence of the Braess and emission paradoxes in the classical Braess¡¦ network. We ascertain that the occurrence of the emission paradox depends on the demand for travel, the parameters of link performance functions as well as link emission factors. We also find that the Braess and emission paradoxes do not always occur at the same time, and that the emission paradox is more likely to occur than the Braess paradox in some networks. More importantly, we discover that under some conditions of the parameters of link performance functions, the emission paradox does occur but Braess¡¦ paradox does not. This implies that road network design for mitigating congestion alone may not be able to avoid the increase in vehicular emissions. A more comprehensive view for road network design is necessary to avoid the occurrence of both the Braess and emission paradoxes.
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Jaber, Xiaoqing; O'Mahony, Margaret
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Jaber, Xiaoqing; O'Mahony, Margaret
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1745
• Analyzing Human Activity Patterns Using Cellular Phone Data: Case Study of Jinhe New Town in Shanghai, China
  Abstract: In the urbanization process of big cities in China, the rise of satellite towns, the migration of manufacturing and the relocation of residents to the suburban areas have accelerated the separation between workplace and residence and brought enormous changes to the activity patterns of Chinese cities. In this paper, we propose a novel and data-driven method of extracting individuals¡¯ daily activities and identifying ¡°anchor points¡± (home and workplace) from mobile phone data and survey data, and apply it to the Jinhe new town. People in study area are classified into three groups, and use time-geographic concept to depict individual activity pattern of each group. Furthermore, we focus on the residents with obviously separated home and workplace caused by suburbanization. For representing the cluster of these people¡¯s activities in space-time, kernel density estimation is used to detect the intensity in space-time. The activity density profile facilitates finding the spatio-temporal characteristic of the demand deriving from suburban residents. The study shows that mobile phone data allows analyzing human activity pattern in space-time at very detailed scale but also require other data resources for comprehensiveness and visualization of all people across the city.
  Authors: Cheng, Xiaoyun; Li, Weifeng; Jia, Fengjiao; Yang, Dongyuan; Duan, Zhengyu
  Authors: Cheng, Xiaoyun; Li, Weifeng; Jia, Fengjiao; Yang, Dongyuan; Duan, Zhengyu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Environment; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 278
  Paper Number: 13-1782
• Bus Commuters’ Jobs-Housing Balance in Beijing: Exploration Using Large-Scale Synthesized Smart Card Data
  Abstract: Could smart-card data collected by the public transportation agency be used to estimate bus commuters’ workplace and residence locations and jobs-housing balance when supplementing with extra data? If so, how? Massive smart card data were queried using computer programs to get 216,844 bus commuters’ workplace and residence locations in Beijing. Resulting data enabled a jobs-housing study of bus commuters in the metropolis with a much larger sample size than most existing studies. Using local expert consultations, field trips and information provided by on-line housing search engines to supplement the location information, this study has also established five land-use prototypes of jobs-housing imbalance and proposed countermeasures to address the imbalance. Smart card data can be used to obtain bus commuters’ workplace and residence locations and to study their jobs-housing balance and related issues when enhanced with extra low-cost or free data. Beijing’s bus commuters (a) have a shorter actual required commuting (ARC) and minimum required commuting (MRC) than commuters in four other auto-dependent western cities with comparable population and/or land use sizes; (b) have a longer ARC and MRC than commuters of all modes in Guangzhou, another metropolis in South China that is half of the land/population sizes of Beijing. To other researchers who want to use smart card data to conduct more studies, this study provides a good example and a generic roadmap regarding how to enhance the value of smart card data with complementary data available on line, field trips and local expertise.
  Authors: Zhou, Jiangping; Long, Ying
  Authors: Zhou, Jiangping; Long, Ying
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 692
  Paper Number: 13-1680
• Assessing the Role of Land Use, Network Characteristics, and Spatial Effects on Freight Trip Attraction
  Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between land-use, network characteristics and freight trip attraction using spatial econometric techniques. The authors use variables that have not been used before (e.g., land-value, distance to truck route, width of streets) to study the influence of accessibility and land-use on deliveries attracted, while considering other economic characteristics such as employment, type of commodity, and sales. The data correspond to more than 300 establishments from five different industry sectors located in New York City. The establishments are geo-located and spatial association indicators are estimated to assess the presence of spatial effects. Spatial econometric techniques are used to account for spatial interaction between establishments. To test the statistical significance of spatial autocorrelation the Spatial Lag Model, and the Spatial Error Model are used.
  Authors: Sanchez, Ivan; Holguín-Veras, Jose; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)
  Authors: Sanchez, Ivan; Holguín-Veras, Jose; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-1340
• Travelers’ Preferences in Multimodal Networks: Design and Results of a Comprehensive Series of Choice Experiments
  Abstract: In this paper, we develop and apply a series of SP experiments to estimate a comprehensive multimodal, multi-stage travel choice model. In total, four experiments are designed focusing on particular multimodal (including P+R) and public-transport choices for trips of varying distance. A representative national sample (N = 2.746) of individuals from the Netherlands participated in the experiments through an online questionnaire. The data pooled across experiments are used to estimate the model in a scaled mixed multinomial logit framework. In this way, valuations of time, costs and service-quality attributes could be estimated on a relatively high level of detail concerning modes and trip stages. The estimation results can be used to specify link costs functions in multimodal network models for network analysis and route planning.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Molin, Eric
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Molin, Eric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-1310
• Predicting Tour Patterns Derived from Ubiquitous Data Sources
  Abstract: Ubiquitous data sources (e.g. GPS traces, mobile phone call records, smart card entries etc.) are increasingly being popular among researchers for deriving mobility patterns. These mobility patterns depend on socio-economic characteristics of the traveler as well as associated situational, contextual and environmental factors. These patterns therefore vary substantially with age, gender, employment status, income level and other demographic factors. Habitual markers (propensity to use the internet, social networking websites, mobile phones or media for example) also provide useful indications about these patterns. In this research, the day-to-day tour patterns of travelers have been extracted from GPS and WLAN records and a discrete choice modeling framework has been proposed to predict these patterns using demographic factors, habitual markers and other travel related attributes collected from travelers of Lausanne, Switzerland. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood technique using the software BIOGEME. Estimated model parameters confirm that demographic factors (e.g. age, occupation and gender) combined with habitual markers (e.g. habit of listening to music on smart phone) and other contextual attributes (e.g. day of the week) can be used to predict the tour pattern of an individual on a certain day. The developed model demonstrates how information obtained from ubiquitous data sources can be successfully used as a tool for transportation planning and management.
  Authors: Iqbal, Shahadat; Siddique, Abu Bakkar; Islam, Md Mozahidul; Choudhury, Charisma Farheen
  Authors: Iqbal, Shahadat; Siddique, Abu Bakkar; Islam, Md Mozahidul; Choudhury, Charisma Farheen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-1330
• Integrating Shared-Use Vehicles: Building the Next Generation of Transit
  Abstract: This paper serves as an introduction to practitioners on shared use vehicles and several strategies to implement and integrate shared use vehicles into an existing transit or transportation network. The shared use vehicles identified are ride sharing, car sharing and bike sharing. The history and current market of each mode is reviewed. The paper includes a review of research of transit integration. The integration methods suggested is integration through street infrastructure, the fare card and information technology. Challenges of each integration method are reviewed and several case studies are explored. A policy implementation chart is included to guide practitioners in municipal government to implement an integrated transportation system that includes shared use vehicles.
  Authors: Alpert, Lauren
  Authors: Alpert, Lauren
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 559
  Paper Number: 13-1332
• Measuring and Reporting Travel Time Reliability Statistics for the Most Congested Corridors in the United States: Methodology and Results
  Abstract: For nearly 30 years, the Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI) has developed methodologies and appropriate performance measures for estimating congestion performance and communicating them to technical and non-technical audiences. TTI’s Urban Mobility Report (UMR) (1) informs decision-making at the federal, state, and local levels. While very important for guiding policy discussion and assisting resource allocations to infrastructure, the congestion statistics in the UMR only tell part of the congestion story – the magnitude of the problem based on areawide average congestion levels. The reality is that congestion is not just an “average” problem. Reliability performance measures capture an important aspect of the travel experience, and they illustrate the variability in traffic congestion so that travelers can estimate the extra “buffer” time needed to ensure on-time arrival. The transportation profession is moving toward the use and application of travel reliability performance measures for project prioritization and decision-making. However, the practice of using reliability measures for decision-making is in its relative infancy. This paper describes the methodology and analytical procedures for computing and ranking corridors throughout the United States with reliability measures. The results are documented in TTI’s inaugural 2011 Congested Corridors Report (CCR) (2). In this paper, researchers describe the methodology and reliability measures presented in the inaugural CCR. The results of the CCR identify the 328 most unreliable roadway corridors as ranked by the buffer index. The performance measures and detailed data like those used in the 2011 CCR can guide investments and improve decisions and communication about the congestion problem.
  Authors: Eisele, William L.; Schrank, David Lynn; Schuman, Rick; Lomax, Timothy J.
  Authors: Eisele, William L.; Schrank, David Lynn; Schuman, Rick; Lomax, Timothy J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; MAP-21
  Session: 760
  Paper Number: 13-1338
• Integrated Model of Attribute and Benefit Activation in Individuals’ Mental Representations of Multidimensional Decision Problems
  Abstract: Individuals’ mental representations of complex decision problems are simplifications of reality that allow them to understand how well different concrete (travel) choice alternatives fulfill their own underlying more abstract needs. Depending on the specific (concrete) attribute and (abstract) benefit components that are activated in the individual’s mental representation and how these components are linked, individuals’ evaluation of decision alternatives may differ. This is especially prominent in the case of multi-dimensional activity-travel decision problems where attributes and benefits may or may not be nested within dimensions. This study introduces a formal model of the activation of attributes and benefits and their links in individuals’ mental representations. The approach allows for tests of differences in activation of mental representation components across individuals and across choice situations. It can guide the selection of (tailored) marketing communications (soft policies) or the development of new travel demand management strategies that target individuals in a specific activity-travel context. The model is illustrated using data collected in an interactive online survey of individuals’ mental representations of a complex shopping decision problem involving a choice of shopping location, transportation mode, and shopping time.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Dellaert, Benedict G.C.; Horeni, Oliver; Liberali, Jordana; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Arentze, Theo A.; Dellaert, Benedict G.C.; Horeni, Oliver; Liberali, Jordana; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-1364
• Latent Class Choice Model of Heterogeneous Drivers' Route Choice Behavior Based on Real-World Experiment
  Abstract: The research presented in this paper develops a hierarchical two-level heterogeneous route choice model using real-world experimental data. The study addresses two limitations in route choice literature, namely: experiment reality and driver heterogeneity. Specifically, aside from random error components, almost all route choice models used in transportation engineering practice assume that drivers are homogeneous in the way they make their route choices and in the way they respond to information. Although this paper only studies the way drivers make route choices, the proposed framework is capable of incorporating the heterogeneity of driver responses to information. The models developed in this paper are based on a sample of 20 drivers who collectively made more than 2,000 real-world route choices. In the proposed model, the first level model uses driver demographic and personality traits together with the characteristics of the choice situation to predict a behavior type. Within the context of this paper, a behavior type connotes a metaphoric measure of driver aggressiveness in route switching behavior, and captures driver behavior heterogeneity. The second level of the model uses the predicted behavior type and the travel experiences of the driver to predict the driver’s route choice. The results of the developed models indicate that in general: 1) behavior types can be predicted from driver demographics, personality traits, and choice situation characteristics, 2) the predicted behavior types are significant in route choice models, and 3) route choice models based on the proposed framework demonstrate better fits than state-of-the-art general models.
  Authors: Tawfik, Aly M.; Rakha, Hesham
  Authors: Tawfik, Aly M.; Rakha, Hesham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-1367
• Impact of Concessionary Bus Travel on Well-being of Older and Disabled People
  Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the concessionary bus pass scheme for older and disabled people in Britain. The scheme currently offers those aged 61 and over and those with disabilities free off-peak local bus travel across the country. The scheme has evolved from ad hoc local schemes through half-price local travel and free local travel. It costs the taxpayer over £1 billion ($1.6 billion) a year. There have been calls for the scheme to be abolished or reduced in scope in order to save public expenditure. However, the scheme is very popular with those who hold Concessionary Travel Passes (CTPs) and more generally. The paper commences with a brief description of the scheme, then the take-up rate is considered and how it has increased over time. The effects on the travel behavior of older and disabled people are then discussed in terms of changes in trip patterns, trip purposes and modal usage. The paper examines the evidence on the benefits that CTPs offer their holders in terms of quality of life, health, social inclusion, the process of ceasing to drive and access to local services, all of which contribute to wellbeing. The paper also considers the wider benefits to society of CTPs and the value placed upon them. Whilst it is not possible to put a monetary value on all the benefits, it is clear that they are large and need to be considered in any discussion about abolishing or amending the scheme.
  Authors: Mackett, Roger
  Authors: Mackett, Roger
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Safety and Human Factors
  Session: 306
  Paper Number: 13-1369
• Reliability-Based Modeling of Park-and-Ride Service on a Linear Travel Corridor
  Abstract: This paper studies the modeling of multimodal choice in a railway/highway system with single park-and-ride service on a linear travel corridor. Commuters choose either auto or railway to directly travel from home to city center, or drive to the park-and-ride facility and transfer to railway transit service. Both the traffic congestion on highway and crowding effect on rail transit are considered. The highway capacity is assumed to be stochastic to take into account the travel time reliability for using auto mode. Commuters are assumed to be uniformly distributed along the corridor. A linear complementarity system is proposed to model the commuters’ modal choice along the corridor and solve the spatial equilibrium pattern. The formulated linear complementarity system is transformed into a mixed integer linear program to be solved. The modeling approach and solution algorithm are implemented in a small numerical example.
  Authors: Wang, David Zhiwei; Du, Bo
  Authors: Wang, David Zhiwei; Du, Bo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 231
  Paper Number: 13-1481
• HANDS FREE STEERING IN A VIRTUAL WORLD FOR THE EVALUATION OF GUIDANCE SYSTEMS IN PEDESTRIAN INFRASTRUCTURES: DESIGN AND VALIDATION
  Abstract: This paper presents the development and validation of hands free steering in a cave automatic virtual environment (CAVE) designed to make the reactions of pedestrians to guidance information measureable. The navigation uses the Microsoft Kinect to obtain information on the movement of the user. The user walks on the place to move forward in the virtual world and turns her shoulders to invoke rotations in the virtual world in order to make turns. After the implementation of the hands free steering the validity of the model has been explored using a case study involving parallel test groups exposing individuals to wayfinding exercises in the real world and the corresponding virtual world. The results show that the objective distances and times in the real and the virtual worlds as well as perceptions of distances, times and directions do not differ statistically significantly validating the model for steering.
  Authors: Bauer, Dietmar; Schneckenburger, Jasmin; Settgast, Volker; Millonig, Alexandra; Gartner, Georg
  Authors: Bauer, Dietmar; Schneckenburger, Jasmin; Settgast, Volker; Millonig, Alexandra; Gartner, Georg
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1484
• A Meta-Analysis of the Value of Travel Time Savings Incorporating GDP Per Capita: Evidence from Japanese Passenger Travels
  Abstract: This paper conducts a meta-analysis of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) in Japan. The meta-analysis is based on 261 VTTS estimated from 68 peer-reviewed papers on travel behavior in Japan between 1979 and 2003. First, the basic characteristics of VTTS are analyzed on the basis of purpose of travel, weekday or weekend travel, type of data, urban or inter-urban travel, and attributes of travel. Regression analyses are then conducted on all VTTS estimates, together with those of urban travel and inter-urban travel. Our analysis reveals that the VTTS estimated using the stated preference data are lower than those estimated with revealed preference data: (1) the VTTS of business travel is higher than that of home-to-school, private, and leisure travel and (2) the VTTS of access/egress time, wait time, and transfer time are higher than that of in-vehicle time. We also show that the VTTS of inter-urban travel is higher than that of urban travel. In addition, the VTTS elasticity of GDP per capita is estimated to be 0.55.
  Authors: Kato, Hironori; Tanishita, Masayoshi; Abe, Ryosuke
  Authors: Kato, Hironori; Tanishita, Masayoshi; Abe, Ryosuke
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1502
• Profiling Unsafe Drivers with Parkinson's Disease: Does Clinical Subtype Predict On-Road Driving Performance?
  Abstract: Aim: To investigate the relationship between clinical subtypes of Parkinson’s disease (PD) and on-road driving performance. Methods: A total of 100 patients with PD were categorized into three subtypes: Postural Imbalance and Gait Disorder (PIGD), n = 59; tremor-dominant (TD), n = 29; or indeterminate (IND), n = 12. All participants completed an off-road evaluation consisting of a clinical questionnaire, a driving history, visual and neuropsychological tests and an on-road driving evaluation. Results: The three groups were matched for age, gender, and disease stage, but not for UPDRS scores. Failure rates on the road test differed between the three groups (p = 0.001). Participants with PIGD were more likely to fail the on-road test compared to those with TD (46% vs 7%, p = 0.0002).After adjustment for UPDRS differences, the odds of failing the on-road test for participants with PIGD was 9.49 (95% confidence interval, 1.66 – 54.21; p = 0.01) times as high as those for patients with TD. The PIGD group performed worse on executive control (p = 0.006), cognitive interference (p = 0.046),and 4-choice movement time (p = 0.01).After correction for UPDRS scores, only executive control remained significant (p = 0.02).Discussion: When screening for unsafe driving ability in PD, patients with PIGD should receive additional attention due to their higher risk of failing on-road assessment.
  Authors: Devos, Hannes; Vandenberghe, Wim; Tant, Mark; Akinwuntan, Abiodun Emmanuel; Alice, Nieuwboer
  Authors: Devos, Hannes; Vandenberghe, Wim; Tant, Mark; Akinwuntan, Abiodun Emmanuel; Alice, Nieuwboer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors
  Session: 605
  Paper Number: 13-1527
• Hysteresis and Urban Rail
  Abstract: Problem + research strategy: Cities are endowed with and accumulate natural and constructed assets based on their unique histories, which in turn define the choice set of the present. But, common practice is that current behavior can be described without reference to past circumstances. This work departs from that practice by examining the effects of historical urban rail on current residential location and travel behavior, from the era of horsecars and streetcars to the present in Boston. It uses aggregate spatial data, with controls for possible endogeneity over these long time frames to explore the hysteretical effects of past access to rail—the extent to which the urban system retains the impacts of rail even when it no longer exists. Findings: Current density and travel behavior are measurably influenced by past access to rail. These findings are robust to a series of alternate causal, functional, and spatial specifications. The built environment and demographic patterns are found to be the strongest mechanisms for these persistent effects. Past access to rail has shaped the city, and that shape has, in turn, affected travel behavior. For density and auto ownership there is an additional measurable effect of past access unexplained by the built environment or demographic patterns. This legacy is plausibly explained by cultural effects—mnemonics—due to personal history or behavioral norms. Takeaway for practice: This research shows that past rail access continues to reverberate in current residential location and travel behavior. These findings of quasi-irreversability add to an understanding of the long-term impacts of rail infrastructure, and imply a need to consider how policy decisions will influence the city's future choice set.
  Authors: Block-Schachter, David; Zhao, Jinhua
  Authors: Block-Schachter, David; Zhao, Jinhua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1575
• Price of Anarchy for Reliability-Based Traffic Assignment and Network Design
  Abstract: In recent years, price of anarchy (PoA) in transportation engineering has recent great attention. Apart from the traditional user-equilibrium traffic assignment problem, scholars also studied PoA in other transportation engineering problems such as stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problems and road pricing problems. In this paper, PoA in a reliability-based user-equilibrium traffic assignment problem is investigated. A definition of PoA for a reliability-based user-equilibrium traffic assignment problem is proposed, and an analytical formula for the PoA for general transportation networks is derived. This formula is extended to reliability-based transportation network design problems. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effect of the value of the risk-aversion parameter on PoA.
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Wang, Bei; Wong, S. C.
  Authors: Szeto, Wai Yuen; Wang, Bei; Wong, S. C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 231
  Paper Number: 13-1617
• A Study on Pedestrian Choice Between Stairway and Escalator in Transfer Station Based on Floor Field Cellular Automata
  Abstract: Stairway and escalator are main transfer facilities in the station where pedestrians make choices between them. A good understanding of pedestrian choices is helpful to raise the efficiency of transfer stations and lower the probability of disasters, such as stamps caused by congestion. This paper studies the choice behavior of pedestrians using random utility theory and floor field cellular automata. Among the factors influencing pedestrian choices, there are non-quantitative ones and quantitative ones. Thus, a method combining qualitative description and quantitative description is adopted. Subsequently, a logit model is presented to mimic the choice behaviors of pedestrians. In this model, there are three new important parameters, including familiarity, walking disutility, and time pressure. By using micro-simulation, a sensitivity analysis for these parameters is conducted. Besides, a counting rule based on Large Number Law is presented to count the real data in transfer stations in Shanghai. After comparing the sensitivity analysis results and measurement data, several reference values of the three important parameters are obtained in uncongested and congested situations respectively.
  Authors: Ji, Xiangfeng; Zhang, Jian; Ran, Bin
  Authors: Ji, Xiangfeng; Zhang, Jian; Ran, Bin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-1635
• Validating Urban Design Measures
  Abstract: Focusing on the street level experience, Ewing et al. (2005, 2006) developed measurement protocols for nine urban design qualities cited in the literature—imageability, enclosure, human scale, transparency, complexity, coherence, linkage, legibility, and tidiness. The first five were successfully operationalized. This paper builds on earlier research to, for the first time, validate the urban design measures against pedestrian counts on 588 block faces in New York City. An effort is made to distinguish which measures, if any, influence levels of pedestrian activity after controlling for the “D” variables: development density, land use diversity, street network design, destination accessibility, distance to transit, and demographics. The urban design quality of transparency, related to windows overlooking the street, continuous building facades forming a street wall, and active street frontage, proves to have more explanatory power than any other D variable.
  Authors: Ewing, Reid; Connors, Mark; Hajrasouliha, Amir; Goates, JP; Neckerman, Kathy; Nelson, Arthur C.; Greene, William H.
  Authors: Ewing, Reid; Connors, Mark; Hajrasouliha, Amir; Goates, JP; Neckerman, Kathy; Nelson, Arthur C.; Greene, William H.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1662
• Rising Gasoline Prices and Residential Relocation Closer to Workplaces
  Abstract: Residential relocation is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline price changes as a potential driving factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation within the location theory framework using the 1996–2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with fewer households relocating but a higher percentage of movers moving closer to workplaces. The effects diminish after three years. The direct effects are stronger than the indirect effects through disposable income. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on housing policies and transportation planning.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-1686
• Understanding the Impact of Gasoline Price Changes on Traffic Safety: A Time Geography Approach
  Abstract: The impact of gasoline price changes on traffic safety has received increasing attention in empirical studies. In this study, we use time geography to provide a theoretical framework for examining the effects of time-varying fluctuations in gasoline prices and their relationship to traffic safety in a case study of Mississippi from April 2004 to December 2010. Application of time geography theory suggests that gasoline prices act as one type of capability constraint of the space-time path. As gasoline prices increase (that is, as the capability constraint becomes stronger), we hypothesize traffic crash rates decrease, and they decrease more for groups for whom the constraint is stronger. The results corroborate the hypotheses and suggest that gasoline prices have stronger effects on reducing less severe crashes and negligible effects on reducing fatal crashes. Gasoline price effects on reducing crashes start at a 9-month lag, peak at a 12-month lag, and diminish after an 18-month lag.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Porter, Jeremy; Cosby, Arthur G.; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Chi, Guangqing; Porter, Jeremy; Cosby, Arthur G.; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-1687
• Characteristics of Drivers with Dementia Referred for a Fitness-to-Drive Evaluation in Missouri
  Abstract: This research investigated drivers reported to the State of Missouri in the years 2001-2005 as being possibly suffering from a dementing illness and requiring a fitness-to-drive evaluation. The research identifies that symptoms possibly linked to a dementing illness, such as confusion, memory loss, getting lost while driving, were frequent primary concerns of reporters. About 40% of those reported had either Alzheimer’s, cognitive impairment, or other brain insult noted in their reports.Of those reported by family members, more than 50% of them do not continue the process and do not submit a physician’s evaluation and thereby forfeit their driver’s license. Of those that do return a physician’s evaluation, in most cases the physician agrees with the family reported diagnosis of a dementing illness, especially for Alzheimer’s where the agreement is 100%, but least for cognitive impairment where the agreement is 75%. Of those reported with a dementing illness, most are not required to complete a driver’s license examination and most lose their licenses based on the evaluation alone, although those reported by physicians are slightly more likely to be required to take such tests. Of those with a dementing illness, about 98% lose their driver’s license due to the report. Interestingly, crash history is generally less frequently a motivator for reports of those with a dementing illness than for those reported without cognitive impairment concerns.
  Authors: Unger, Elizabeth A.; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur Freyr; Meuser, Thomas M.; Carr, David B.
  Authors: Unger, Elizabeth A.; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur Freyr; Meuser, Thomas M.; Carr, David B.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors
  Session: 605
  Paper Number: 13-1690
• Disaggregated Real Estate Demand Model with Price Formation for Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modeling
  Abstract: This paper presents a disaggregated model of real estate demand with price formation for use in integrated land use and transportation modeling. Previous land use models for similar purpose either pursue an aggregated equilibration approach or a disaggregated dis-equilibrium approach without much realistic representation of price movement. We build a disaggregated real estate demand model based on discrete choice model where agents (households) choose residence location based on Random Utility Maximization principle and the prices move to reflect competition among agents. Our model has the advantage over previous models of being able to capture realistic price formation while representing heterogeneous taste of agents in a dynamic modeling framework. Our model has been implemented as a module for UrbanSim, a micro-simulation modeling system for land use, transportation, and environment, allowing users to easily swap between versions of residence location choice models with and without price formation. Implemented in Python and utilizing optimized scientific computing packages numpy and scipy, the module is very efficient and allows models of a large metropolitan area to run on standard computer hardware in reasonable time. In this paper we show the structure and implementation of the model, demonstrate its performance, and present model estimation and sensitivity testing results using housing and population data of the San Francisco Bay Area.
  Authors: Wang, Liming; Waddell, Paul
  Authors: Wang, Liming; Waddell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-1718
• Pareto-Improving Hybrid Policy for Transportation Networks
  Abstract: This paper investigates an innovative Pareto-improving hybrid policy that combines two policy instruments, i.e., congestion pricing and road space rationing, and takes advantage of the synergistic effects between those instruments. Mathematical formulations for developing Pareto-improving pure road space rationing schemes and hybrid policies are presented. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed hybrid policy offers greater flexibility and is more prominent in leading to Pareto improvement than both pure congestion pricing and road space rationing schemes.
  Authors: Song, Ziqi; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Yang, Hai
  Authors: Song, Ziqi; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Yang, Hai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 485
  Paper Number: 13-1809
• Differentiated Congestion Pricing of Urban Transportation Networks with Vehicle-Tracking Technologies
  Abstract: This paper explores a new type of congestion pricing that differentiates users with respect to their travel characteristics and charges them different amount of toll accordingly. The scheme can reduce the financial burden of travelers or lead to more substantial reduction of congestion. Given that the scheme requires tracking vehicles, an incentive program is designed to mitigate travelers' privacy concerns and entice them to voluntarily disclose their private travel information.
  Authors: Zangui, Mahmood; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Chen, Shigang
  Authors: Zangui, Mahmood; Yin, Yafeng; Lawphongpanich, Siriphong; Chen, Shigang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1825
• Analysis and Design of Tradeable Credit Schemes Under Uncertainty
  Abstract: Market-based instruments for congestion mitigation can be generally classified into two classes, i.e., price- and quantity-based. The former, widely-known as congestion pricing, charges tolls to influence travelers’ decisions, while the latter regulates quantity directly. More specifically, credits or permits are first distributed by a government agency, and travelers are then required to pay a certain number of credits to access transportation facilities. The credits can be traded among travelers and the price is determined by the market through free trading. In this paper we formally establish the identity between congestion pricing and tradable credit schemes in managing network mobility. Using a numerical example, we demonstrate how the identity falls apart when there is uncertainty associated with transportation supply or demand. We then conduct sensitivity analysis of the coupled network and market equilibrium to predict how credit price varies with respect to the perturbation associated with the supply or demand. A safety valve policy is then investigated to balance regulation success and price volatility under uncertainty.
  Authors: Shirmohammadi, Nima; Zangui, Mahmood; Yin, Yafeng; Nie, Yu
  Authors: Shirmohammadi, Nima; Zangui, Mahmood; Yin, Yafeng; Nie, Yu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1826
• Integrated Pricing of Roads and Electricity Enabled by Wireless Power Transfer
  Abstract: This paper explores integrated pricing of electricity and roads enabled by wireless power transfer technology. We envision that high-power, high-efficient wireless power transfer technologies are mature in the near future, which electrify roads to be charging infrastructures. The prices of electricity at electrified roads will affect electric vehicles’ route choices while the energy requirement of those vehicles will in return affect the operations of the power network and thus the prices of electricity. To determine the optimal prices of electricity and roads to maximize social welfare, first- and second-best pricing models are proposed under different authoritarian regimes. More specifically, assuming that a government agency manages both transportation and power systems, we develop the first-best pricing model, based on which a marginal-cost pricing scheme is derived. The second-best pricing model is proposed if the agency participates in a competitive wholesale power market while being able to impose tolls on electrified roads. The toll design is formulated as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints, and is solved by a manifold suboptimization algorithm. Numerical examples are presented to offer insights on integrated pricing of roads and electricity and demonstrate its effectiveness on improving social welfare.
  Authors: He, Fang; Yin, Yafeng
  Authors: He, Fang; Yin, Yafeng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1822
• Optimizing Variable Speed Limits for Efficient, Safe, and Sustainable Mobility
  Abstract: This paper envisions a variable speed limit system where speed limits vary strategically and periodically in accordance with traffic and weather conditions to achieve better safety, efficiency and environment sustainability on a traffic network. For such a variable speed limit system, we propose a tri-objective bi-level programming model to design optimal link-specific speed limits that minimize system travel time, number of expected accidents and traffic exhaust emissions simultaneously for each specific strategic scenario. A solution framework is developed to solve the model, which implements a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and integrates various tools for performance evaluation. The proposed model and solution framework are demonstrated using the road network within the 2nd ring road in Beijing.
  Authors: Yang, Yanni; Lu, Huapu; Yin, Yafeng; Yang, Hai
  Authors: Yang, Yanni; Lu, Huapu; Yin, Yafeng; Yang, Hai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-1828
• Factors Associated with Pedestrian Crossing Behavior at Signalized Intersections in China
  Abstract: Traffic crashes involving pedestrians make up a large proportion of road casualties, and they are more likely to occur at signalized intersections. The primary objective of this paper is to study the factors that influence the behaviors of regular users, late starters, sneakers, and partial sneakers. Behavior information was observed manually in field study. After obtaining the behavior data, the survey team distributed a questionnaire to the same participant who has been observed, in order to acquire detailed demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as attitude and preference indicators. In total, 1878 pedestrians were surveyed at 16 signalized intersections in Nanjing, China. First, correlation analysis is performed to analyze the effect of each factor separately. Then, five latent variables including safety, conformity, comfort, flexibility and fastness are obtained by structure equation modeling (SEM). Based on the results of SEM, a multinomial logit (MNL) model with latent variables is developed to describe how the factors influence pedestrians¡¯ behavior choices. The following conclusions are drawn from the model: (1) arrival time, the presence of oncoming cars, and crosswalk length are the most significant factors when pedestrians choose to be late starters, (2) gender, oncoming cars and trip purpose have the most significant effects on the pedestrians to be sneakers, and (3) for the choice of being partial sneakers, age, gender and oncoming cars are the most important factors.
  Authors: Zhou, Zhuping; Wang, Wei; Li, Haiyuan
  Authors: Zhou, Zhuping; Wang, Wei; Li, Haiyuan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-1842
• Model for Work Activity Schedules with Synchronization for Multiple-Worker Households
  Abstract: This paper presents a hybrid discrete choice-duration model for work activity scheduling with interactions between workers in a multiple-worker household. The model operates in discrete space with a fine level of temporal resolution. Main innovative component relates to intra-household interactions that are expressed in coordination and synchronization mechanisms between the workers. The model was estimated based on a large Household Travel Survey in the San Francisco Bay Area. The estimation results confirmed strong intra-household interactions including synchronizations for outbound and inbound commute as well as creating overlaps of available time windows for joint activities before and after work. Relative strength of the synchronization mechanisms proved to be a function of the person characteristics and household composition.
  Authors: Vovsha, Peter; Gupta, Surabhi
  Authors: Vovsha, Peter; Gupta, Surabhi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 842
  Paper Number: 13-1844
• Optimization Method of Alternate Traffic Restriction Scheme Based on Elastic Demand and Mode Choice Behavior
  Abstract: To cope with urban traffic congestion problem, alternate traffic restriction (ATR) has become an emerging countermeasure, in which a certain proportion of automobiles are prohibited to enter the pre-determined ATR districts in specific time periods. This study proposes an optimization method of ATR scheme for both its restriction districts and restriction proportion of automobiles. As a Stackelberg game between traffic policy makers and road users, the ATR scheme optimization problem is established with a bi-level programming model. The upper-level model is about ATR scheme aiming at consumer surplus maximization under the condition of overload flow minimization. The lower-level model is to optimize the elastic demands, mode choice and multi-class user equilibrium assignment synthetically. The proposed genetic algorithm with prolonging codes is of high computing efficiency in that it dynamically includes newly-appeared overload links into the codes so as to reduce the following searching range. Moreover, practical processing approaches are suggested to improve the operability of the model-based solutions. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to theoretically optimize the ATR scheme by systematic approach with mathematical model specification.
  Authors: Shi, Feng; Xu, Guang-ming; Liu, Bing; Huang, Helai
  Authors: Shi, Feng; Xu, Guang-ming; Liu, Bing; Huang, Helai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-1853
• Modeling Resilience Enhancement Strategies for International Express Logistics
  Abstract: International express is one most time-sensitive industry, which may need to respond disruptions quickly so as to improve service quality and to avoid losing their competitiveness with other logistics service providers. Instead of arbitrarily making rush decisions during the post-disruption phase, this paper contributes a method for quantifying and optimizing the resilience strategies based on the integrated resource assignment concepts, regardless of how the available resources are located with respect to the studied logistics network or how many capacities we can rent from others.The study starts from a typical transportation network modeling approach and then incorporates nonlinear time-dependent cargo value functions into a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming (MMINLP) problem. A set of optimal actions from resilient strategies are considered, such as: selecting alternative routes, switching shipping modes, renting other carriers¡¦ capacities, re-allocating local trucks, and prioritizing the order of shipments due to limited capacities. Decisions should be based on overall trade-off considerations, while jointly maximizing the product of total time-dependent cargo value and the corresponding throughput and minimizing the costs incurred by resilience enhancement strategies.
  Authors: Chen, Cheng-Chieh; Feng, Cheng-Min; Tsai, Ya-Hsuan; Wu, Pei-Ju
  Authors: Chen, Cheng-Chieh; Feng, Cheng-Min; Tsai, Ya-Hsuan; Wu, Pei-Ju
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 268
  Paper Number: 13-1869
• Urban Setting and Transportation Modes Repositories: Multilevel Mixture Model Specification
  Abstract: The overwhelming number of studies on the relationship between travel and the urban environment have typically examined whether density, mixed land use and other morphological and functional characteristics of neighbourhoods induce individuals to use more environmentally friendly modes of transportation and travel less distance. To contribute to this already substantial accumulation of knowledge, this study will focus on the relationship between urban environment and the possession of different means of transportation, motivated by the consideration that the acquisition of transportation modes precedes their actual use in the context of daily activity-travel patterns. The analysis is based on the 2009 Dutch National Travel Survey, involving 65535 respondents, who reported their possession of different transportation modes. First, descriptive analyses are performed, followed by the estimation of best subset binary probit models and a multi-level mixture model. Congruent with previous findings about the use of transportation modes, both the results of the descriptive and the formal modelling analyses strongly indicate the existence of a weak interaction between urban density and the (non-) possession of in particular the car. However, results at the same time suggest the lack of any strong relationship between urban setting and transportation modes repositories. Implications of these research findings are discussed.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1940
• Phased Decisions Under Multiple Source of Uncertainty: Analysis of Multimodal Choice Behavior
  Abstract: Most previous research on route choice under uncertainty has examined simple single choices. To contribute and expand to this stream of research, the present study analyzes choice behaviour in phased decisions using the choice of multi-modal transportations chains as an example. An experimental design is constructed in which respondents first have to choose between two bus line/route alternatives, which vary in terms of travel times and associated uncertainty in these travel times, and then between two train lines/routes which vary in terms of the same attributes in the context of an appointment for an interview. Results indicate that individuals exhibit risk-avoiding behaviour. To the extent they take risk, it tend to concentrate at the first phase of the two-phased decision process. Except for age, the effects of socio-demographic variables are not significant. Limitations of the present study and critical considerations for any future work on this topic are discussed in completing the paper.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-1941
• Multimodal Simulation-Based Planning for Pedestrians
  Abstract: In this contribution Strasbourg’s plan piéton will briefly be summarized and as a part of it the traffic situation around the central bridge Pont Kuss will be introduced. At Pont Kuss a number of safety and convenience issues in pedestrian traffic are reported. This is the motivation for a multi-modal microscopic simulation project which assesses measures to improve the situation for pedestrians. The assessment includes both: benefits for pedestrian and potential drawbacks for vehicular traffic. It will be shown in detail that clear benefits for pedestrians and for public transport are opposed by only small – if at all – drawbacks for vehicular traffic. It is concluded that multi-modal micro-simulation is a powerful tool to handle all traffic modes with equal care and equal rights in the planning process and that it is at the same time a powerful tool to produce material for communication with the public.
  Authors: Kretz, Tobias; Reutenauer, Frédéric; Schubert, Florian
  Authors: Kretz, Tobias; Reutenauer, Frédéric; Schubert, Florian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-1943
• Adjusting Origin-Destination Matrices Based on Traffic Counts and Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals
  Abstract: Mobility studies require, as a preliminary step in most of them, conducting a survey to a sample of users of the transportation system. The statistical reliability of the data determines the goodness of the results and conclusions which can be inferred from the analyses and models generated. Due to the high economic costs of the collecting field stages, collected data are partially reused in either a disaggregated o aggregated manner. In the first case, the statistical reliability is not always guaranteed, affecting drastically the results to be derived from projections and estimates of future and hypothetic scenarios.In this paper we present a methodology, based on the techniques of "bootstrap", for the robust statistical estimation of the mobility matrices, and generate the confidence intervals of travel between origin-destination (OD) pairs defined by each matrix cell derived from a mobility survey. This result is of interest in defining the dimensions of certinty for matrix cells and subsequent adjustment by techniques based on aggregate data (i.e. traffic counts, cordon line matrices, paths, etc..).Bootstrap techniques was invented in the 70's and, although widely used since the 90's, have not been professionally full exploited in the field of mobility studies matrices.To address this task we have counted with a statistically reliable data mobility study conducted in Spain at the level of regions. This paper presents the results derived from disaggregating date at interprovincial level, and an application to the posterior mobility matrix adjusment based on traffic counts data. The study results demonstrate the potential of the methodology developed and the usefulness of conclusions.
  Authors: Benitez, Francisco Garcia; Romero, Luis M.; Caceres, Noelia; Del Castillo, Jose Maria
  Authors: Benitez, Francisco Garcia; Romero, Luis M.; Caceres, Noelia; Del Castillo, Jose Maria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-1947
• Planning for Sustainable Transport and Land Use in Polycentric Mega-Regions: Comparing Regional Rail Development and Governance in the Rhein-Ruhr and Los Angeles Metro Areas
  Abstract: As urban areas across the world continue to expand, ”megaregions”, i.e. large, continuously urbanized areas with more than ten million inhabitants, emerge as key sites of future global economic production and consumption. The densely sprawling character of such megaregions holds vast challenges for the successful development of efficient transport infrastructures. This paper explores the particular challenges of rail-based transport development in two pivotal polycentric megaregions in Europe and the U.S. It is organized into two main parts. The first part, focused on analytical foundations, presents an overall analytical model for rail infrastructure governance at the megaregional level. Megaregions are then established as key units of analysis in re-directing human settlements towards more sustainable forms. The first part concludes with a brief review of the larger policy trends that have led to a renaissance of rail infrastructure investment over the last couple of decades, both at the regional and at the supra-regional scale. In particular, this concerns the contemporary policy shift towards sustainable transport, smart growth and low carbon cities, and the role rail transport is expected to play in moving towards more sustainable systems. The second major section roots the paper’s analytical considerations in two concrete local experiences, comparing rail infrastructure development and governance in the Rhein-Ruhr region in Germany and the LA metro area in the U.S. A final section provides concluding remarks and suggestions for further study.
  Authors: Peters, Deike
  Authors: Peters, Deike
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 418
  Paper Number: 13-1954
• Evaluation of Urban Land Redevelopment Impact on Nonmotorized Traffic: Case Study in Shanghai, China
  Abstract: Urban land redevelopment is an important component of city evolution and has a great impact on transportation system. The current traffic impact analysis (TIA) is lack of a comprehensive component for non-motorized transportation under redevelopment, which is especially critical in China where non-motorized mode share is extremely high. For a better guidance of land redevelopment and non-motorized transportation planning, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of redevelopment on non-motorized traffic before the project is approved and the construction starts. The objective of this study is to fill the gap in the transportation impact analysis (TIA) system and promote the sustainable development of the non-motorized transportation.In this paper, we emphasize the importance of the urban redevelopment impact evaluation on non-motorized traffic, and focus on providing an evaluation framework for the impact analysis. We use the systematic analysis method to organize the procedures and objects of redevelopment impact evaluation on non-motorized traffic, and proposed the corresponding evaluation indicators to analyze the impact qualitatively and quantitatively. A case study of Shanghai, China is discussed as an application. The results indicate that the redevelopments such as a residential land redeveloped into a mixed commercial land have a significant impact on non-motorized traffic, and reasonable improvements in the internal design are effective to avoid the potential negative impact. The framework and process can be integrated into the general motorized traffic impact analysis.
  Authors: Wang, Yanli; Zhu, Xiaoyu; Li, Linbo; Wu, Bing
  Authors: Wang, Yanli; Zhu, Xiaoyu; Li, Linbo; Wu, Bing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-1900
• Investigating Changes in Willingness to Pay for Managed Lane Systems: Quasi-Panel Approach
  Abstract: This paper investigates the hypothesis that the willingness-to-pay for managed lanes changes through time in the aftermath of opening and operating a facility. Using a quasi-panel of stated preference surveys, we found that the estimates of the value of travel time savings are higher two years after the opening and operation of managed lanes in both regular and urgent situations. These results provide an indication of a lingering perception of the inherent value offered by managed lanes becomes more evident after the lanes have been opened and used.
  Authors: Patil, Sunil; Concas, Sisinnio; Burris, Mark W.; Devarasetty, Prem Chand
  Authors: Patil, Sunil; Concas, Sisinnio; Burris, Mark W.; Devarasetty, Prem Chand
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2052
• Social Networks in Agent-Based Models for Carpooling
  Abstract: In this paper we present social networks in an agent-based model (ABM) for carpooling. Our model for the carpooling application is a computational model for simulating the interactions of autonomous agents and for analysing the effects of change in factors related to the infrastructure, behaviour and cost. Primarily, we focus on our agent-based approach for creating social networks for the carpooling application using socio-demographic data and daily activity-trip schedules estimated by Feathers, which is an activity-based traffic demand model. Social networks for the carpooling application, called carpooling SocNet in this paper, depicts the potential relationship information between carpoolers. We need relationship data to initiate our agent communication model and then employ a route matching algorithm and a utility function to trigger the negotiation process between agents. To generate carpooling SocNet, we proposed three similarity measures: profile, path and time interval similarity measure. In order to test the three similarity measures, we conducted experiments with input data in the Hasselt region and Limburg province, Belgium. As a result, it shows an interesting relationship information between the agents, which people in the study area have 65% of similarity to each other based on socio-economic attributes. Moreover, we found it is important to find an optimal value of the threshold because of the impact on finding a carpool partner and dependency on the study area. We plan to, as a part of the future work, use this carpooling SocNet data and feed it to our agent-based model to initiate communication, coordination and negotiation in carpooling.
  Authors: Cho, Sungjin; Yasar, Ansar-Ul-Haque; Knapen, Luk; Patil, Bharat; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Authors: Cho, Sungjin; Yasar, Ansar-Ul-Haque; Knapen, Luk; Patil, Bharat; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2055
• Activity Fragmentation, ICT, and Travel: Unraveling Interrelationships with Structural Equation Models
  Abstract: A substantial number of studies have addressed the relationship between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), daily activities (here, paid work) and travel. Most studies have been primary concerned with direct effects of ICT on activities and travel. The aim of this study is to gain more insight into the relationship between ICT and travel behavior by using fragmentation as an intermediate concept to investigate how ICT influence travel behavior. The concept of fragmentation relates to how activities are reorganized temporally and spatially linked to ICT use. The causality of ICT, activity fragmentation and travel relationships remains to date unclear. We examine different causalities between ICT use, fragmentation and frequency of travel, based on a two-day communication-activity-travel data collected in The Netherlands. Using three different specifications, structural equation models (SEM) are applied to investigate the likely directions of the relationships. The results show that the causal associations between fragmentation ICT and travel are far from simple. ICT mediate the participation in non-work activities and can both substitute and complement the number of trips depending on the traveller’s attributes and type of ICT devices. More work fragmentation seems to limit the ability to travel for non-work purposes compared to work trips which is less elastic. ICT and fragmentation appear to have a reciprocal relationship with mobile ICT use influencing fragmentation while sedentary communications are more determined by the degree of fragmentation.
  Authors: Alexander, Bayarma; Ben-Elia, Eran; Ettema, Dick
  Authors: Alexander, Bayarma; Ben-Elia, Eran; Ettema, Dick
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 791
  Paper Number: 13-2057
• Sampling of Alternatives in Random Regret Minimization Models
  Abstract: We propose a methodology to achieve consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency, while sampling alternatives in Random Regret Minimization models. Our method is an extension of previous results for Logit and MEV models. We illustrate the methodology using Monte Carlo experimentation. Experiments show that the proposed methodology is practical, that it outperforms the uncorrected model, and that it yields acceptable results.
  Authors: Guevara, C. Angelo; Chorus, Caspar; Ben-Akiva, Moshe E.
  Authors: Guevara, C. Angelo; Chorus, Caspar; Ben-Akiva, Moshe E.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 324
  Paper Number: 13-2063
• The Effects of Urban Sprawl on Daily Life: Smart Growth Implementation of Atlantic Station
  Abstract: Urban sprawl is a multifaceted concept, which includes the spreading outwards of a city and its suburbs to its outskirts to low-density and auto-dependent development on rural land, high segregation of uses, and various design features that encourage car dependency. Urban sprawl directly impacts traffic congestion, high oil consumption, and many other transportation issues. It is evident that urban sprawl has negative impacts on both air quality and public health, which affects the human condition. This results in health issues for inner-city residents and air pollution. Air pollution can affect our health in many ways with both short-term and long-term effects. The purpose of this research paper is to determine if Urban Sprawl is an emerging dilemma or if it has been an issue in past civilizations. Also to evaluate the positive and negative effects of urban sprawl on daily lives in the United States. To analyze whether or not the use of a Smart Growth project in the southeast that has been implemented, significantly addresses the effects of urban sprawl. Finally to review past and present studies done on urban sprawl that will give insight on how urban sprawl came to be, so conclusions and recommendations for future research can be developed.
  Authors: Brunner, Andrew Middle
  Authors: Brunner, Andrew Middle
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-2077
• Unconstrained Formulation of Environmentally Constrained Traffic Equilibrium Problem
  Abstract: Various government legislations have recently been issued to alleviate the environmental deterioration of transportation systems. Environmental constraint is a valid means to explicitly reflect various environmental protection requirements imposed by the government. In this paper, we examine the environmentally constrained traffic equilibrium problem (EC-TEP), which is a fundamental tool for modeling and evaluating environmental protection requirements. Specifically, we provide an equivalent reformulation for the EC-TEP. The proposed reformulation adapts the concept of gap function to simultaneously reformulate the nonlinear complementarity conditions associated with the generalized user equilibrium conditions, environmental constraints, and conservation constraints as an equivalent unconstrained optimization problem. This gap function reformulation has two desirable features: (1) it can handle a general environmental constraint structure (linear or nonlinear; link-based or area-based) and a general link and route cost structure, enhancing the modeling adaptability and flexibility; (2) it is smooth and unconstrained, permitting a number of existing efficient algorithms for its solution. A gradient-based solution algorithm with a self-regulated averaging stepsize scheme is customized to solve the reformulated unconstrained optimization problem. Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate the modeling flexibility of the proposed EC-TEP reformulation.
  Authors: Xu, Xiangdong; Chen, Anthony; Cheng, Lin
  Authors: Xu, Xiangdong; Chen, Anthony; Cheng, Lin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-2086
• Transferability of Freight Trip Generation Models
  Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to assess transferability of freight trip generation (FTG) models estimated for different industry sectors and geographies. After presenting the key premises that should guide the development of FTG models, the paper assesses transferability in two different ways. The first one is through the analyses of how well representative FTG models are able to estimate the FTG at a number of (external) validation cases. The second one is through FTG econometric models that assess the statistical significance of binary variables that represent specific geographic locations. The paper also introduces a synthetic correction procedure intended to improve the transferability and quality of the estimates provided by the constant FTG model.
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Sanchez, Ivan; Lawson, Catherine Theresa; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Campbell, Shama; Levinson, Herbert S.; Shin, Hyeon-Shic
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Sanchez, Ivan; Lawson, Catherine Theresa; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Campbell, Shama; Levinson, Herbert S.; Shin, Hyeon-Shic
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 321
  Paper Number: 13-2136
• Framework for Modeling and Forecasting Population Age Distribution in Metropolitan Areas at Level of Transportation Analysis Zone
  Abstract: Recent travel demand modeling practices focus on micro, disaggregate, and activity level travel behavior and patterns. The application of such practices requires detailed population information in socio-economic and demographic data. For example, in a four-step travel demand model total household and employment at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level are sufficient for trip generation. However, in an activity based model more detailed information in the small area (TAZ), such as population by different age categories and employment type, is required to produce trip chaining and other details in the population synthesis step. Conventionally many studies have used Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) to generate such detailed information. But, IPF suffers from severe drawbacks and is blind to detailed synthesis of variables. In this paper, a novel approach is presented where population by age category evolves over time period using logistic regression technique. The methodology is presented in three steps: coefficient estimation, forecast and validation. First, the 1990 census data is used to model population by age group in 2000 at the TAZ level. The model result is applied to forecast 2010 data for validation. The methodology is applied to Baltimore Metropolitan Council (BMC) region and the results show that the proposed model produces and forecasts reasonably well. The experiences gained from this study are: (1) population evolution pattern in city area should be treated separately from other, e.g., Baltimore City has a special population structure from other surrounding counties; (2) this model provides a good estimation and prediction for the age group 0-24 and 35-64 and the problems occurs in 25-34 and 65+ groups, whose migration trend is not consistent over time and cannot be captured by the current parameters alone. Though in this paper population by age is considered for demonstration, the proposed methodology can be used for other variables of interest such as household type, householder’s age, employment type, occupation, etc. The proposed tool can be adapted by small and large scale planning agencies for preparing detailed socio economic and demographic input data for travel demand modeling practices.
  Authors: Zhu, Xiaoyu; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Pandey, Birat; Baber, Charles
  Authors: Zhu, Xiaoyu; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Welch, Timothy F.; Pandey, Birat; Baber, Charles
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 829
  Paper Number: 13-2158
• Analyzing Car Ownership in Two Quebec Metropolitan Regions: Comparison of Latent Ordered and Unordered Response Models
  Abstract: Private car ownership plays a vital role in the daily travel decisions of individuals and households. The topic is of great interest to policy makers given the growing focus on global climate change, public health, and sustainable development issues. Not surprisingly, it is one of the most researched transportation topics. The extant literature on car ownership models considers the influence of exogenous variables to remain the same across the entire population. However, it is possible that the influence of exogenous variable effects might vary across the population. To accommodate this population heterogeneity in the context of car ownership, the current paper proposes the application of latent class versions of ordered (ordered logit) and unordered response (multinomial logit) models. The models are estimated and compared using the data from two Canadian cities of the province of Quebec: Montreal and Quebec City. The latent class models from the two regions offer superior data fit compared to their traditional counterparts while clearly highlighting the presence of segmentation in the population. The validation exercise using the model estimation results further illustrates the strength of the latent class models for examining car ownership decisions. In terms of the comparison exercise, the latent class unordered response models consistently outperform the latent class ordered response models for the two Quebec regions examined.
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Authors: Anowar, Sabreena; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen; Miranda-Moreno, Luis Fernando
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2198
• Accommodating Underlying Proenvironmental Attitudes in a Rail Travel Context: Application of a Latent Variable Latent Class Specification
  Abstract: Using data from a stated preference survey conducted in the United Kingdom, we show how the willingness to reduce reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accept longer travel time varies strongly as a function of underlying attitudes towards the environment. We specify a latent class structure that allocates respondents to two classes with substantially different valuations of greenhouse gas emissions, and show how the allocation of a given respondent to either class is a function of underlying attitudes that also drive the answers to a number of attitudinal questions. We also show how these underlying attitudes are a function of a number of socio-demographic characteristics, with female respondents, older respondents, and respondents with a university degree having a stronger pro-environmental attitude, with the opposite applying to respondents with regular car access.
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Shires, Jeremy; Jopson, Ann
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Shires, Jeremy; Jopson, Ann
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2241
• Quality Control of Toll Data for Mobility Performance Measures on Jingshen Expressway in China
  Abstract: China is experiencing an unprecedented growth in transportation development. The enclosed Chinese toll system provides an opportunity for the toll data to be used for monitoring mobility performance. However, quality control of such toll data is challenging. The toll data from the Jingshen Expressway in China was analyzed and assessed for mobility performance evaluation. Quality control criteria were developed to filtering out erroneous data and off-network stops. The mobility performance measures, namely, Travel Time Index, Congestion Duration, and Planning Time Index were calculated for the Jingshen Expressway network. The research shows the toll data which is essentially Origination and Destination (OD) data in nature can be used for overall mobility performance evaluation with sufficient quality control. However, the limitation of such data is that it is based on OD pairs. The mobility performance was assumed to be consistent within an adjacent OD pair. It is suggested that the toll data combined with spot speeds from other data sources, such as fixed-point sensors or surveillance camera, be used for more in-depth study.
  Authors: Qu, Tongbin Teresa; Li, Ding
  Authors: Qu, Tongbin Teresa; Li, Ding
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Environment; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 278
  Paper Number: 13-2219
• From Super Block to Small Block: Road Network Transformation and Its Impact
  Abstract: Super block and giant road network have been a dominant form of China¡¯s new urban development. This directly leads to numerous urban problems, such as high auto dependency, serious congestion, and unlivable communities. Transforming to a new urban form with human-scale blocks and fine-grain grid road network is drawing much attention recently. The transformation needs to answer a series of questions: what will be its impact on road capacity? How to deal with the cost re-arrangement between different players of road construction, maintenance, and management? Following a general discussion on related factors and approaches for a solution, these issues are further analyzed using the example of the core area of Chenggong new town in Kunming, China. The case study shows that the concern about a negative impact on road network capacity is unfounded, and through reasonable cost restructuring and management, a win-win situation is possible for all players of road construction, maintenance, and management thus an optimized societal cost-benefit arrangement can be reached in the transformation.
  Authors: Wang, Zhigao; Li, Yinghao; Li, Jungen; Li, Liang
  Authors: Wang, Zhigao; Li, Yinghao; Li, Jungen; Li, Liang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 413
  Paper Number: 13-2349
• Effect of Driving Restrictions on Travel Behavior in Beijing
  Abstract: This article measures the effect of Beijing’s driving restrictions on individual travel behavior using 2010 Beijing Household Travel Survey data. Driving restrictions decrease the auto use, however, with the effect lower than expectation. Evidence from trip frequency indicates that the adjustment in travel behaviors varies across individuals: for example, female, high-income drivers who live in the south of the Beijing central city tend to decrease auto use more facing restrictions. Drivers also make inter-temporal adjustments in trip making, especially within a 3-day time window. We also provide evidence of the uneven restrictions, that is, high traffic flow in the 4&9 restricted days, as well as how non-drivers decrease their trip frequency in such days.
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen; Deakin, Elizabeth; Long, Ying
  Authors: Gu, Yizhen; Deakin, Elizabeth; Long, Ying
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2352
• Urban Travel Demand Analysis for Austin, Texas, Using Location-Based Social Networking Data
  Abstract: The location-based social networking (LBSN) is a location-sensitive service interactively carried out by users with mobile devices, such as smart phones, to “check-in” with the “venues” reflecting their daily activities. With its increase popularity and sophistication, the location-based social networking (LBSN) data have emerged as a new data source for studying urban travel demand. Comparing with traditional Origin-Destination (O-D) estimation method such as survey based or traffic count based methods, LBSN data has the potential to provide O-D estimation with much higher temporal resolution at much lower cost. In this paper, the Foursquare LBSN data was used to analyze the O-D demand for the urban area near Austin, Texas, USA. A gravity model with two-regime friction factor functions is proposed to estimate the O-D matrix. The proposed methods are calibrated and evaluated against the ground truth O-D data from CAMPO (Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization). The results illustrate the promising potential of using LBSN data for urban travel demand analysis and monitoring.
  Authors: Jin, Jing; Yang, Fan; Cebelak, Meredith; Ran, Bin; Walton, C. Michael
  Authors: Jin, Jing; Yang, Fan; Cebelak, Meredith; Ran, Bin; Walton, C. Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-2374
• Greedy Genetic Algorithm for Improving Capacity Reliability in Large-Scale Networks Considering the Effect of Low-Frequency Events: Application to Expressway Network in Tehran, Iran
  Abstract: One of the most important problems in the area of transportation network analysis is Network Design Problem (NDP). The main issue of NDP refers to its high computational effort. This study has been conducted to promote the computational efficiency of NDP under supply uncertainty, where a reliability measure -network capacity reliability- defines the performance of network, through two steps. At the first step, a fast method is presented for the measurement of the capacity reliability for urban transport networks. The method is based on link performance reliabilities, which are computed with regard to traffic volume and the Probability Density Function (PDF) of capacity, caused by low-frequency events (e.g., accident and vehicle breakdown). Under the occurrence of a low-frequency event it might be assumed that the travelers are not well informed about the consequence of the event in such a way that they can change their previous paths which were selected under the absence of the event (‘non-adaptive users’ is assumed). Thus, a User Equilibrium model with the assumption of maximum link capacities has been considered to assign demand volumes on links and to compute the performance reliability of each link. Furthermore, this paper adopts Genetic Algorithm (GA) with a modification on initial population generation sub-procedure (using a greedy algorithm) to expedite the GA used for optimization of capacity reliability. The proposed greedy GA is applied on a simple test network to calibrate GA’s requirements as well as to experiment the convergence of the proposed GA. Results of this application show that the computational efforts required by the proposed greedy GA is very less than that of the standard GA (e.g. 1:26 in terms of the number of iterations needed). The proposed method has also been applied on a real case study, the expressway network of Tehran City, Iran, and results indicate that the proposed GA can successfully be implemented even in very large networks.
  Authors: Babaei, Mohsen; Shariat-Mohaymany, Afshin
  Authors: Babaei, Mohsen; Shariat-Mohaymany, Afshin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-1817
• Effects of Household Structure and Accessibility on Travel
  Abstract: The concept of accessibility has been widely used in the transportation field, commonly to evaluate transportation planning options. The fundamental hypothesis of those accessibility-related studies could be “greater accessibility leads to more travel”. However, several studies showed inconsistent results with the common hypothesis, that is, accessibility is independent of trip/tour frequency. In addition, empirical aggregate urban modeling applications commonly produce either non-significant or negative (wrong sign) relationships between accessibility and trip/tour frequency. For this reason, many practitioners rarely incorporate a measure of accessibility into trip/tour generation models for induced demand consideration. In this context, this study examined the effect of accessibility in urban and suburban residence on the maintenance and discretionary activity tour frequencies of the elderly and the non-elderly using household travel survey data collected in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea. The major finding of this study is that higher density of land use and better quality of transportation service do not always lead to more tours due to the presence of intra-household interactions, trip chaining, and different travel needs by activity type. This finding implies that accessibility-related studies should not unquestioningly accept the common hypothesis when they apply accessibility measures to evaluate their transportation planning options or incorporate them into their trip/tour generation models.
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-1873
• Exploring the Links Between Personal Networks, Time Use, and the Spatial Distribution of Social Contacts
  Abstract: Although the study of the role of the social context in travel behavior and activity patterns has recently gained attention, the empirical evidence supporting the relationship between social networks and the temporal and spatial characteristics of social activities is still limited. With this motivation, this paper studies the link between “longer term” (social networks) and “shorter term” (social activities) social decisions, by exploring the intertwined relationship between the individuals’ personal networks attributes, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of their daily social activities. The paper contributes to the literature by adding two key aspects to the study of the role of social networks on travel behavior: the social networks’ structure, and the spatiality of all individuals participating on the social activities.Based on data which link people’s personal networks and time use, and using a structural equation modeling approach, the paper studies the influence of individual and interactional attributes on the duration, distance, and number of people involved in social daily activities. The results show that aspects such as tie social closeness, gender and age similarity, and network density, help to understand social activity duration and distance, complementing traditional socio-demographic aspects such as income, occupation, and accessibility to services. In this way, socio-demographic attributes are not enough to explain the spatiotemporal dimension of daily activities which makes necessary to include variables related to the social context to explain with a higher level of accuracy both the duration and distance traveled to the activity.
  Authors: Moore, Jose; Carrasco, Juan Antonio; Tudela, Alejandro
  Authors: Moore, Jose; Carrasco, Juan Antonio; Tudela, Alejandro
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 539
  Paper Number: 13-1999
• Large Traffic Generators: Opportunities for City Logistics Initiatives
  Abstract: This paper develops procedures to identify and quantify the role played by large traffic generators as contributors of traffic in large urban areas. Although, ports, container terminals, and other industrial sites are usually associated with large generations of truck trips, they only represent a small proportion of the total trips produced and attracted in large metropolitan areas. This paper analyzes the importance of other facilities such as ordinary businesses or buildings that individually or collectively generate a large proportion of truck traffic. The paper introduces two effective and complementary procedures to identify these generators using the models estimated by the authors.
  Authors: Jaller, Miguel Angel; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Holguín-Veras, Jose
  Authors: Jaller, Miguel Angel; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Holguín-Veras, Jose
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-2152
• It's Not That I Don't Care, I Just Don't Care Very Much: Confounding Between Attribute Nonattendance and Taste Heterogeneity
  Abstract: With the growing interest in the topic of attribute non-attendance, there is now widespread use of latent class (LC) structures aimed at capturing such behaviour. Specifically, these studies rely on a confirmatory LC model, using two separate values for each coefficient, one of which is fixed to zero while the other is estimated, and then use the obtained class probabilities as an indication of the degree of attribute non-attendance. In the present paper, we argue that this approach is in fact misguided, and that the results are likely to be affected by confounding with \emph{regular} taste heterogeneity. We contrast the confirmatory model with an exploratory LC structure in which the values in both classes are estimated. We also put forward a combined latent class mixed logit model (LC-MMNL) which allows jointly for attribute non-attendance and for continuous taste heterogeneity. Across two case studies, the exploratory LC model clearly rejects the confirmatory LC approach and suggests that rates of non-attendance may be much lower than what is suggested by the standard model, or even zero. The combined LC-MMNL model similarly produces significant improvements in model fit, along with substantial reductions in the implied rate of attribute non-attendance, in some cases even eliminating the phenomena across the sample population. Our results thus call for a reappraisal of the large body of recent work that has implied high rates of attribute non-attendance for some attributes. Finally, we also highlight a number of general issues with attribute non-attendance, in particular relating to the computation of willingness to pay measures.
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Stathopoulos, Amanda; Campbell, Danny; O'Neill, Vikki; Caussade, Sebastian
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Stathopoulos, Amanda; Campbell, Danny; O'Neill, Vikki; Caussade, Sebastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 227
  Paper Number: 13-2252
• Simple Test for Identifying Violations of Random Utility Model
  Abstract: In this paper, we show that the key condition in determining the consistency of discrete choice data with the Random Utility Model (RUM) is regularity, i.e. choice probability should not increase as the choice set is extended. We implement this condition as an empirical test within the framework of 3-alternative nested logit (i.e. treating nests as reduced choice sets), showing that any regularity failures will relate to inter-nest choices (i.e. preference reversals in relation to the lone alternative), and that the prevalence of such failures will be determined by the magnitude of the structural parameter (reflecting the degree of similarity between nested alternatives) and the relative choice shares for the 3 alternatives. More specifically, we find that if ?<0, then regularity will be contravened (i.e. preferences are non-RUM), whereas if 00, then regularity will be obeyed (i.e. preferences are RUM). The size of will depend upon the relative choice shares. We illustrate our findings empirically, showing that (unwittingly) fitting RUM to data which are non-RUM could have implications for model fit, willingness-to-pay and forecasts. We conclude that the limits 0
  Authors: Batley, Richard; Hess, Stephane
  Authors: Batley, Richard; Hess, Stephane
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-2255
• Do Others Influence Our Travel Decision?
  Abstract: Based on Japanese panel data derived from 12 monthly waves and 1,253 questionnaires, the study examines the impact of social interactions on tourism participation. Social interactions are classified into three types: namely, endogenous, exogenous and correlated effects. It is empirically confirmed that endogenous social effects have significant influences on tourism participation behavior. For example, it is found that interactions with people of the same income groups (an example of endogenous social effects) are generally significant across most months of the year. However, it is worth noting that endogenous social effects will be overestimated if the correlated social effect is not taken into account. The results suggest that social multiplier effects can be discerned that have potential implications for promotion and management of tourism participation rates.
  Authors: Wu, Lingling; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Wu, Lingling; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2282
• Generalized Multinomial Logit Model: Misinterpreting Scale and Preference Heterogeneity in Discrete Choice Models or Untangling the Un-Untanglable?
  Abstract: Recently published papers dealing with issues of scale and preference heterogeneity are having a significant impact on the choice modeling community. In particular, the generalized multinomial logit model (GMNL) is now being widely promoted as the model of choice in many discipline areas given its purported ability to separately identify scale and preference heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to firstly discuss a number of issues related to the estimation of the GMNL model. The second objective of the paper is to argue that the GMNL model does not in fact untangle scale and preference heterogeneity as has been reported and that the outputs derived from the model have been misinterpreted. We further argue that the model is not a generalised version of the mixed multinomial logit model, but in fact is a mixed multinomial logit with more flexible, but still restrictive, mixtures of distributions that do not necessarily equate to an ability to capture scale heterogeneity. We finally discuss the only theoretical circumstance under which random scale and preference can be separately identified within the logit family of models.
  Authors: Rose, John Matthew; Hess, Stephane; Greene, William H.; Hensher, David A.
  Authors: Rose, John Matthew; Hess, Stephane; Greene, William H.; Hensher, David A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 324
  Paper Number: 13-2297
• Missing Links: How Social Paths Can Improve Light-Rail Pedestrian Accessibility
  Abstract: In the last several decades, planners and policy makers have focused creating more balanced transportation systems that include better transit service as well as improved options for pedestrians and bicyclists. Pedestrian accessibility is vital to the success of transit stops since transit users are likely to walk on at least one end of their trip. As a result, practitioners have focused on improving pedestrian environments in station areas. Pedestrian accessibility studies have focused on formal pedestrian links such as roads, sidewalks and multi-use trails. However, a small but important body of literature suggests that the informal pedestrian environments play an important, but often overlooked, role in pedestrian accessibility. Social paths are informal routes that emerge in grassy areas due to footfall. Social paths have formed at numerous suburban transit stops and show the deficiencies in the design of formal pedestrian networks. Because current travel behavior studies omit informal pedestrian networks, their results may be inaccurate, resulting in misguided policy. This study identified social paths at twelve light rail stations in Denver, Colorado and Dallas, Texas. Using two pedestrian accessibility metrics, the formal pedestrian environment was compared to a joint formal-informal pedestrian environment that includes social paths. This paper makes the argument that social paths are important components of station-area pedestrian accessibility and should be incorporated into future travel behavior studies and pedestrian improvement projects.
  Authors: Gallagher, Patrick; Marshall, Wesley; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol
  Authors: Gallagher, Patrick; Marshall, Wesley; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 827
  Paper Number: 13-1799
• Living Close to Highways: Residential Satisfaction and Influence of Perceived Changes in Accessibility and Negative Externalities
  Abstract: Residential satisfaction is an important proxy for people´s wellbeing and for relocation behavior. In this paper we focus on gaining insight into the residential satisfaction of households near highways, based on survey data collected among 1,230 respondents in the Netherlands. Using ordinal regression analysis, we studied the effect of accessibility and negative externalities, alongside other contextual factors, on residential satisfaction. Moreover, the objective was to gain first insights into the extent to which plans for road infrastructure adjustments influence residential satisfaction. On average, 90 percent of respondents reported to be satisfied with living near the highway. Regarding explanatory characteristics, negative externalities slightly outweigh accessibility aspects. Moreover, subjective evaluations of hindrance appear to have stronger explanatory power than calculated air and noise exposure. Regarding road adjustments, we found that respondents living near locations where a road adjustment has been announced are marginally more satisfied compared to other locations. A reason could be that respondents expect the current situation to improve once the adjustments are finished, for instance by increased accessibility. The overall positive residential satisfaction evaluations near highways may imply that, generally speaking, problems regarding living near highways may be somewhat overstated. Moreover, the notion that the explanatory power of subjective hindrance outperforms calculated exposure levels may give reason to be cautious when making transportation planning decisions based solely on calculations. Keywords: highway infrastructure planning, accessibility and environmental trade-offs, residential satisfaction, planned road adjustments.
  Authors: Hamersma, Marije; Tillema, Taede; Sussman, Joseph M.; Arts, Jos
  Authors: Hamersma, Marije; Tillema, Taede; Sussman, Joseph M.; Arts, Jos
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-2076
• Taking U.S. Transportation Professionals to European Cycling Cities: Does It Matter?
  Abstract: The Bikes Belong Foundation and the Federal Highway Administration have sponsored a series of study tours for U.S. transportation professionals to European cities with more robust infrastructure and higher modal splits for cycling. Via this hands-on approach, professionals experience how bicycle transportation functions within integrated, multi-modal, balanced transportation systems. The ultimate goal of these programs is to give policymakers and transportation professionals opportunities to learn lessons they can apply in the US to encourage greater use of the bicycle for transportation. This research assesses the impact of those study tours through interviews with past participants, analyzing major lessons learned from the tours, how participants have implemented the lessons in US cities, and the barriers to implementation. Overall, participants highly valued the firsthand experience in cities where cycling is a significant mode of transportation as it expanded their vision for transportation infrastructure design and policy. Some insights were more readily implemented upon return to the U.S. and some remain slow to be adopted. This paper summarizes both aspects of these professionals’ experiences, as well as providing recommendations for future study tours. A few of these recommendations include: organizing a cycle track specific study tour, providing more firsthand experience with bicycle supportive policy formation and soft measure implementation, supporting participants through peer-to-peer information sharing and readjustment assistance upon return, and taking teams of politicians, engineers, planners, and community leaders from the same community to the most advanced European cycling cities.
  Authors: Mild, Cortney Elise; Schlossberg, Marc A.
  Authors: Mild, Cortney Elise; Schlossberg, Marc A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-2389
• Implications from South Korea's Smart Card Operation
  Abstract: Public transport should be promoted to increase the efficiency of urban transport and build sustainable urban transport systems. Smart Transit Card (STC) is acclaimed as a very effective policy that increases public transport convenience. Because STCs have been introduced and are successfully being implemented in many cities in South Korea, this study reviews whole process from beginning to end on the Integrated STC in South Korea. When the country first implemented STCs, it experienced diverse problems such as inability to refund fares, a lack of system capacity, and suspension of some services. South Korea has continued to solve the problems. Policymakers played key role to implement the policy, while stakeholders forged agreements. Laws and systems were mended and improved to achieve nationwide STC compatibility. Financial and technical improvements were implemented to enhance the convenience of using STCs. These efforts certainly led to an enhanced convenience of and demand for using public transport. The STC implementation case of South Korea is believed to provide good implications to many cities that intend to introduce Integrated STC.
  Authors: Kim, DongJun; Shin, Hee Cheol
  Authors: Kim, DongJun; Shin, Hee Cheol
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2380
• Economic Impact of Highway Investment at the Metropolitan Level: Empirical Analysis with Considerations for Induced Demand and Induced Supply
  Abstract: Public infrastructure investment, especially transportation investment is always seen as an effective way to boost economy nowadays. Studies have confirmed that positive relationship exists between transportation investment and economic development. However, the magnitude of this impact stays in doubt. Based on analysis at different geographical level and with different modeling methods, the magnitude of the effect varies from around 0.5 to 0. Most of the existing researches look at this problem from an economic perspective of view, and several issues that are critical for transportation problems are neglected. This paper tried to solve the economic problem from a transportation perspective of view, and mainly addressed three issues: using physical measurement of highway infrastructure instead of financial measurement to avoid bias caused by price variance, inclusion of qualitative indicators besides quantitative indicators to represent the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic development more comprehensively, endogeneity of travel demand and transportation investment are considered simultaneously during the analysis. The results confirmed the existence of induced demand and induced supply. Transportation investment has a positive impact on economic development. However, the effect is relatively small, with the short-run and long-run elasticity to be 0.018 and 0.028 respectively.
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: He, Xiang; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2390
• Modeling Framework to Analyze Effect of Multiple Traffic Information Service Providers on Traffic Network Performance
  Abstract: Along with the increasing popularity of mobile smart devices such as smartphones and tablet PCs, traffic information is coming closer to drivers through many intelligent traffic apps. Many countries have multiple traffic information service providers (ISP) who make every effort to improve their service quality in order to allure more people to subscribe to their services. As such a commercial environment is developing now, a study on the effect of multiple ISPs on the road network performance is necessary. Hence a modeling framework of day-to-day dynamics in which multiple information service providers (ISPs) compete/cooperate with each other to enhance their subscriber service quality is developed in this study. A realistic information acquisition and learning mechanism that ensures the consistent updating of individually perceived day-by-day travel times is incorporated for driver behavior in this framework. A boundedly-rational behavior model was adopted for route choice decisions. The framework is capable of investigating the effects of any potential competition/cooperation of multiple ISPs in the traffic information market in terms of their information sharing strategies. Numerical experiments on a real network were conducted to analyze the impact of such interactions on the network performance. The results showed that a cooperative system is not necessarily the best for network performance and that there exists an optimal level of market penetration of traffic information services in transportation networks beyond which the benefits will no longer increase, or can even worsen.
  Authors: Yang, Inchul; Jayakrishnan, R.
  Authors: Yang, Inchul; Jayakrishnan, R.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-2392
• Analysis of Route Choice Using Private Probe Data Considering Heterogeneity in Familiarity to Origin-Destination Pairs
  Abstract: An exploratory analysis about the heterogeneity in familiarity to OD pairs is carried out. This analysis is based on the probe data collected by private vehicles in Toyota, Japan. The hypothesis test results show that route choice behavior changes relating to the familiarity to OD pairs. Two specifications of choice models are proposed to consider the effect of familiarity explicitly. The estimation results show that the models consider familiarity fit the data better, and suggest that trips between more familiar OD pairs have larger error variances and less sensitivity to explanation variables. The estimated models are applied to a specific choice situation, the prediction results show the potential biases introduced by not considering heterogeneity in familiarity to OD pairs.
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Authors: Li, Dawei; Miwa, Tomio; Morikawa, Takayuki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-2393
• Effects of Household Structure on Grocery Shopping Behavior of Elderly in South Korea
  Abstract: Traditionally, Koreans in their old age tend to reside with adult children and receive physical and psychological support from them. This feature may have positive effects on the quality of life for the elderly. However, recent official statistics show Korea¡¯s soaring elderly households residing without adult children, indicating a need to examine the effects of household structure on the elderly. In this context, first, this study explored the effects of household structure on elderly grocery shopping behavior with a focus on grocery shopping frequency, accompanying behavior, and enjoyment with grocery shopping activities by estimating full structural equation models. In addition, aggregate urban modeling applications on the relationship between accessibility and trip/tour frequency commonly produce either non-significant or negative associations which violate the basic economic theory, that is, lower travel cost leads to more travel. We conjectured that individuals¡¯ subjective satisfaction with activities could lead to such unreasonable results. Therefore, the other objective of this study is to identify the possible causes to lead the unreasonable relationship between accessibility and trip/tour frequency. First of all, a hypothesized single population model was statistically tested by estimating a full structural equation model. Second, the entire survey dataset was segmented into four comparison groups by four dichotomous segmentation variables. The results showed that co-residence with adult children and better family relationship significantly alleviate the difficulties of the elderly such as elderly physical mobility and residential accessibility to grocery shopping places, consequently improving grocery shopping enjoyment of the elderly and the quality of life.
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Authors: Seo, Sang-Eon; Ohmori, Nobuaki; Harata, Noboru
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2406
• Changing Trends of Bicycle Usage in China: Macrolevel Analysis
  Abstract: Cities in China have experienced extremely large changes in both socioeconomics and traffic characteristics in the past decade. These changes have resulted in a long-term change in the percent of bicycle usage in the city areas. The primary objective of this study is to capture the changing trends of bicycle usage in cities of China from a macroscopic perspective and explore the reasons for the change. To achieve the objective, data are collected from 45 medium-to-large cities in different spatial regions of China. The data analysis shows that the percent of bicycle usage in cities of China gradually decreased in the past years with an average rate of 2.69% for conventional bicycles and 1.07% for all bicycles (including conventional and electric bicycles). Larger cities generally have lower levels of bicycle usage. The models are developed to analyze the relationship between bicycle usage and city-level characteristics. The results show that as the population and land area in a city grow and the income level increases, the average trip time becomes longer and more travelers choose to use motorized trip modes, which consequently reduce the bicycle mode share in the city area. This study concludes that the bicycle usage could keep decreasing in the future in cities of China.
  Authors: Yang, Chen; Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Mao; Zhao, Yajie
  Authors: Yang, Chen; Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Mao; Zhao, Yajie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2408
• Energy-Efficient Operation of Subway Systems
  Abstract: To reduce the operation cost and then improve the operational efficiency, people are paying more and moreattention to the energy-efficient operation of subway systems. In this paper, we present and compare to twoalgorithms to optimize the energy-efficient speed profile for trains of subway systems, which can reduce theenergy consumption of train operations. Firstly, we formulate a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)model to get the optimal trajectory for trains. Secondly, we present an integrated algorithm for optimizingthe timetable for the entire route together with the speed profiles between successive stations, which is calledas integrated timetable. Finally, we give some numerical examples to illustrate the validity of the algorithmsbased on the data from the Beijing YiZhuang subway line in China.
  Authors: Su, Shuai
  Authors: Su, Shuai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation
  Session: 279
  Paper Number: 13-2451
• When Explanatory Variables Are Unobserved: Example of Latent Income
  Abstract: Income is recognised as a key variable influencing consumer behaviour, most notably in terms of a strong link with cost sensitivity. This is supported by a large body of empirical evidence using choice modelling techniques. Unfortunately, income information as available in most datasets used for modelling is affected by a number of issues; (1) it is measured as a categorical rather than as a continuous variable, (2) many respondents fail to provide income information, (3) the reported income is potentially correlated with other unobserved factors, and (4) there is scope for deliberate under or overstating of income by respondents. In the present paper, we propose to deal with these issues by replacing reported income with a latent income variable in the choice models, which at the same time is also used to explain the stated income in a measurement model. The proposed structure has a number of theoretical advantages. In comparison with using stated income, we should deal with some of the measurement error and bias issues. In comparison with using imputation of missing values, our model draws not just on data on stated income for those respondents without missing information, but the simultaneous estimation with the choice model means that the observed choices also inform the latent income variable. Two empirical applications using stated and revealed preference data illustrate the good performance of the method in practice.
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Daly, Andrew; Dumont, Jeffrey; Sanko, Nobuhiro
  Authors: Hess, Stephane; Daly, Andrew; Dumont, Jeffrey; Sanko, Nobuhiro
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 391
  Paper Number: 13-2426
• Taxis in Road-Pricing Zone: Should They Pay the Congestion Charge?
  Abstract: This paper investigates the problem of whether taxis should be tolled in the pricing zone when designing congestion pricing scheme. A bi-level programming model is developed to compare the maximum social welfares before and after the congestion charge is imposed on taxis. The lower-level is a combined network equilibrium model (CNEM) formulated as a variational inequality program, which considers the logit-based mode split, route choice, elastic demand and vacant taxi distributions. The upper-level is to maximize the social welfare when toll rates vary. The bi-level problem can be solved by a conventional Genetic Algorithm, whereas the lower-level is solved by the block Gauss-Seidel decomposition approach together with the method of successive averages and diagonalization algorithm. A numerical example is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm and to promote some interesting findings.
  Authors: Zhu, Jincheng; Xiao, Feng
  Authors: Zhu, Jincheng; Xiao, Feng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-2470
• Evaluation of Bluetooth for Traffic Stream Travel Time Estimation Under Indian Conditions
  Abstract: Travel time estimation has been a high interest topic in traffic operation and management for years. Travel time information is more useful to the user than other parameters such as speed, flow, density, headway etc. However, travel time being spatial in nature, requires a spatial sensor for its measurement. The spatial sensors available for such a data collection include GPS, AVI, mobile phones, Bluetooth, etc. These can measure the travel time directly; however techniques like GPS and AVI require participation of the user for data collection, which is difficult especially in private vehicles. Use of mobile phones is another possibility, which has lesser location accuracy since it uses triangulation to find the location of vehicles. Bluetooth, Zigbee, and wifi sensors are other possibilities and are reported as possible source of travel time data from western countries. They have the advantage of no participation requirement and reasonably good location accuracy. However, the disadvantage is that they can capture only a small percentage of the entire traffic stream. The present study explores Bluetooth sensor as a traffic data source under Indian conditions. The first part of the study checks the penetration rate of Bluetooth to check the possibility of using it as a traffic data source under Indian conditions. The second part of the study analysed and identified the type of vehicles being represented by Bluetooth. This is important under Indian conditions, where several different types of vehicles are sharing the same roadway. And the last part of the study presents the stream travel time estimation from these selected classes of vehicles being represented by Bluetooth data. This involved the use of a weighted linear regression model. The results of modeling are promising and show potential for real time ITS applications.
  Authors: Agarwal, Nitish; Varma, Sunny Raja; Vanajakshi, Lelitha Devi
  Authors: Agarwal, Nitish; Varma, Sunny Raja; Vanajakshi, Lelitha Devi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 358
  Paper Number: 13-2483
• Incorporating Mechanisms of Social Adoption in the Design and Analysis of Stated Choice Experiments: Illustration and Application to the Choice of Electric Cars
  Abstract: The use of stated choice experiments in travel behaviour research has increased dramatically over the last decade. Although considerable progress has been made, over-prediction of market shares of new choice alternatives is often reported. This study is based on the contention that such over-prediction is partly due to the fact that experimental designs do not incorporate conditions that reflect how new alternatives are received in the market: social adoption is not experimentally varied. The aim of this paper is to show how social adoption can be incorporated in the design and analysis of stated choice experiments. The intention to buy an electric car is used for illustration. This paper discusses the design of the choice experiment and summarizes the main findings of the analyses. Results indicate that although social influence plays a less significant role than attributes of electric cars in the buying process, different elements of social networks do exert an influence on people’s buying decisions. These effects vary between friends, relatives, colleagues and the larger peer group. Moreover, the effects are non-linear, the particular form of the part-worth utility function depending on the element of the social network. The latent decision to buy a car also depends on socio-demographic variables. The results of this novel approach have implications for the design of stated choice experiments, which are discussed in the last section of the paper.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Society
  Session: 689
  Paper Number: 13-2506
• Paired Route Impedance Correction for Multinomial Logit Model Based on Equivalent Impedance
  Abstract: A closed-form logit-style formulation basing on route impedance correction is proposed to alleviate defeats caused by the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) and the homoscedasticity properties of multinomial logit (MNL) route choice model. The algorithm utilizes the traditional correction method to add addition impedance to each route by route pair combination with improved correction algorithm. For each route pair, a binary logit model with the concept of Logit Equivalent Impedance is utilized to calculate the route impedance correction, which is derived from two assumptions: (1) the route choice probabilities are independent of the overlapping part so that IIA property can be alleviated; and (2) the variances of route impedances are proportional to route impedances to resolve the homoscedasticity issue. The closed-form structure and easy computation of original MNL model remain unchanged. Numerical examples show that the proposed approach produces more reasonable results than traditional models with same complexity of computation, and is more stable when the number of routes in reasonable route choice set changes.
  Authors: Jun, LI; Lai, Xinjun; Yu, Zhi
  Authors: Jun, LI; Lai, Xinjun; Yu, Zhi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2486
• Uncertainty in Predicted Sequences of Activity-Travel Episodes: Measurement and Analysis
  Abstract: Application of uncertainty analysis requires appropriate statistics that capture the degree of uncertainty in model forecasts. Prediction of activity-based models of travel demand relates to (i) aggregate performance indicators; (ii) origin-destination tables and corresponding traffic flows, (iii) individual space-time trajectories and (iv) the sequence of activities that are conducted during the day. Realising that measures aiming at quantifying uncertainty in such multi-dimensional activity-travel sequence patterns have not been developed in transportation research, the aim of this paper is to propose an approach to measure uncertainty in predicted activity-travel sequences. The proposed method involves generating predicted activity-travel patterns for different model runs and quantifying the uncertainty in the sequential information embedded in these patterns by calculating the average efforts required to align these multi-dimensional sequences for all possible pairs of predicted sequences. Because computational costs may become prohibitive in large-scale applications, several heuristic approaches are suggested and examined. Results indicate that (i) the suggested methods can represent uncertainty in predicted activity-travel sequences very well, (ii) that the suggested heuristics tend to approximate the calculated uncertainty based on all possible sequences, and (iii) that the heuristics however do not necessarily produce asymptotically more accurate results. Implications of these findings are discussed to complete the paper.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2511
• Methodology of Parking Analysis
  Abstract: Cities are faced with many challenges, in particular in relation to the mobility of people and the structure of land-use. Parking management, which makes the link between the fields of urban planning and transportation, is one of the crucial ways to meet these challenges. However, parking studies are a poorly covered area in transportation research. The main barrier to study parking is parking data availability.In the Greater Montreal Area, data from origin-destination (OD) surveys are helpful in understanding typical travel behavior. These surveys have been conducted for forty years and provide useful data to describe and model various spatial-temporal features of daily mobility.This research illustrates the use of OD survey data to develop indicators on parking spaces and use in a given area. This study confirms that the systematic processing of car driver trips from travel surveys allows developing vehicle accumulation profiles for various zones and, from these, derive theoretical parking capacities. This research provides an assessment of the quality of the estimation by comparing the estimations from OD survey to other sources of data, namely geographical data and field surveys.The paper shows that parking capacity is subject to high variability and highlights that its assessment is quite complex and must take into account regulation data that modulates the availability of the raw parking capacity according to different days and hours of the day.
  Authors: Diallo, Abdoulaye; Morency, Catherine; Saunier, Nicolas
  Authors: Diallo, Abdoulaye; Morency, Catherine; Saunier, Nicolas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-2520
• Incorporating Time Dynamics in Activity-travel Behavior Model: A Path Analysis of Changes in Activity and Travel Time Allocation with Life Cycle Events
  Abstract: The study of dynamics in activity and travel behavior is not a new research interest in transportation field. There are a few arenas in the dynamics which have been partially covered, yet some remain rather unexplored. Short term dynamics of activity and travel behavior are better understood than long term changes in the contemporary research. For instance, intra-household decision making, day-to-day dynamics of activity-travel generation and scheduling, out-of-home or in-home activity organization have been addressed by a number of studies. However, one can rarely find studies on the dynamics of time allocation in activities and travel related to life cycle events. This study contributes to the understanding of such long term dynamics. Using path analysis it shows the effect of several life cycle events on the changes in time allocation in activities and associated travel. Data were collected in the Netherlands in September 2011 using an event-based questionnaire survey, where the respondents were asked to report a weekly activity and travel schedule before and after the event. Results also show the inter dependencies between the types of activity and travel. We conclude that life cycle events have significant impact on changes in time allocation for activities and travel. The effects are varied in direction, intensity and existence according to the type of event and the type of activity. The findings contribute to the specification of dynamics in activity-travel time allocation and predicting the rapid and far reaching changes in addition to the day-to-day dynamics.
  Authors: Sharmeen, Fariya; Arentze, Theo A.; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Sharmeen, Fariya; Arentze, Theo A.; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 539
  Paper Number: 13-2572
• Investigating Microsimulation Error in Activity-Based Travel Demand Forecasting Using Confidence Intervals
  Abstract: Activity-based models of travel demand using micro-simulation approach inevitably include stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a result, running a traffic micro-simulation model several times with the same inputs will obtain different outputs. In order to take the variation of outputs in each model run into account, a common approach is to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result (i.e., with a certain level of confidence that the obtained average value can only vary within an acceptable interval). In this study, systematic experiments are carried out by using the FEATHERS framework, an agent-based micro-simulation model particularly developed for Flanders, Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account, which are Building block level, Subzone level, Zone level, Superzone level, Province level, and the whole Flanders. Three travel indices, i.e., the average daily number of trips per person, the average daily distance travelled per person, and the average daily number of activities per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations, are estimated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more detailed geographical level is considered, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence of a certain percentile of zones at this level to be stable. In addition, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are computed subsequently. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of the FEATHERS at an aggregated level only requires limited model runs.
  Authors: Bao, Qiong; Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Authors: Bao, Qiong; Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 829
  Paper Number: 13-2528
• Network Flows of Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Impacts of Electricity-Charging Price
  Abstract: This paper is intended to model and evaluate the impacts of electricity-charging prices on work-related commuting network flows of electric vehicles. A stochastic user-equilibrium network flow problem is formulated and analyzed for commuters who drive battery electric vehicles and incorporate charging costs into routing decision makings. Given the spatial difference of electricity-charging prices, solving the problem requires tracking all individual paths. As such, a path-based solution algorithm based on the disaggregated simplicial decomposition scheme, with some modifications in the path generation phase and an added k-shortest path search procedure for eliminating the solution inaccuracy issue, is proposed for problem solutions. We implemented the modeling and solution methods for evaluating the network performance changes caused by varying electricity-charging prices in multiple network-level and link-level evaluation matrices. The evaluation results show that the traffic network of battery electric vehicles incurs a higher vehicle miles traveled (VMT) value and a lower vehicle hours traveled (VHT) value compared to the network of gasoline vehicles, and the VMT value decreases and the VHT value increases with the increase of either the origin-based or destination-based electricity-charging price.
  Authors: Zhang, Ti; Xie, Chi; Waller, S. Travis
  Authors: Zhang, Ti; Xie, Chi; Waller, S. Travis
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-2611
• Public-Private Partnership in Traveler Information Provisions: Case Study of a Developing Country
  Abstract: Developing countries make a larger contribution to global transportation related problems than developed countries, and they also suffer more acutely from limited budgets. Traveler Information Provisions (TIP) assist commuters in making better travel decisions, thereby leading to increased mobility and more efficient travel. At the same time, shrinking public funding has made the public-private partnership more attractive. Seemingly there are opportunities for Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in TIP in developing countries. Nonetheless, the use of PPP to fund public projects in the developing countries is in its infancy, and the issues related to this do not receive adequate attention in the literature. In this study, we investigated PPP’s opportunities in TIP in the case of a developing country; Tehran, Iran. We first studied the factors contributing to TIP effectiveness by analyzing commuters’ behavioral changes in response to currently broadcasted Radio Traffic Information (RTI). The analysis was conducted using Multi-Nominal Logit and Nested Logit models. From this analysis, we identified commuter characteristics, trip purpose, and the content of RTI information as contributing factors which direct us to some potential markets and strategies for investment in TIP. We then reviewed the literature to identify some challenges and opportunities of PPP in past experiences as well as special regional constraints. According to the modeling results and the literature review we outlined some business models for PPP in TIP. Some key findings are (i)data integration and customization is essential, (ii)with respect to purchasing behavior, the market has to be stratified into commuter and corporate markets, and (iii)the market for GPS based services is promising.
  Authors: Asadi Bagloee, Saeed; Kermanshah, Mohammad; Bozic, Claire
  Authors: Asadi Bagloee, Saeed; Kermanshah, Mohammad; Bozic, Claire
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Environment; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 278
  Paper Number: 13-2596
• Traffic Congestion’s Economic Impacts: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions
  Abstract: Congestion alleviation has long been a core planning objective in most transportation programs, but existing policy portfolios have been both costly and unsuccessful at alleviating congestion. Road gridlock is inconvenient, but it remains unclear under which conditions this indicator of active urban places also impedes other social objectives, among which this research focuses on the economy. Using panel data for 88 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), this study estimates congestion’s drag on employment growth (1993 to 2008) and gross metropolitan productivity growth per capita (2001 to 2008). Results indicate that higher congestion is not associated with slower productivity growth, but is associated with slower employment growth rates above congestion levels of 28 (shorter-term) or 32 annual hours of delay per commuter (longer-term). Nevertheless, evidence also suggests that natural adaptations to congestion through shifts in industry mix moderate congestion's expected drag - particularly over the longer term.
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Authors: Sweet, Matthias
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Economics; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 723
  Paper Number: 13-2625
• Drivers’ Perception of Route Alternatives as Indicator for the Indifference Band
  Abstract: Although travel time is probably one of the most important attributes in route choice, the shortest time route is often not the preferred route according to several studies in the literature. This study tries to explain this finding by testing the hypotheses that choice makers may be able to estimate travel times correctly for routes they prefer, but that they are biased against alternatives even if these are faster. For a few choice sets of routes in the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times from a license plate study. The comparison confirmed the hypotheses. For chosen routes, perceived travel times correspond quite well with actual travel times on average, while for non-chosen routes, perceived travel times are overestimated by 2 – 3 minutes on average. These results show that travelers are not able or do not want to evaluate routes objectively. This implies that within an indifference band of on average 2 – 3 minutes, they are probably not willing to alter their route choice, even if the traffic situation induced for example by traffic management measures, changes in a negative way for their preferred route.
  Authors: Vreeswijk, Jaap; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric; van Arem, Bart
  Authors: Vreeswijk, Jaap; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric; van Arem, Bart
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-2607
• Stated Adaptation Experiment for Individuals’ Time and Money Budget Allocation Decisions on Out-of-Home Leisure Activities
  Abstract: In this paper, we report the first findings of a web-based stated adaptation experiment for time and money budget allocation of individuals on their out-of-home leisure activities. This experiment is based on a model that is developed by the authors. It includes the data of 529 individuals which is a representative sample of the Dutch population. In the experiment, individuals are asked to adjust their time and money allocations including travel components in response to hypothetical scenarios such as a decrease in their income and increase in their working hours. Moreover, respondents are asked to report how they would make the changes in their budget allocation which gives a behavioral insight to the analysis. The data will allow the proposed models to be estimated. The paper focuses on the description of the new data collection instrument and application in a survey, and reports descriptive statistics of the stated-adaptation data obtained.
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Authors: Dane, Gamze
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-2608
• Evaluating Impact of Congestion Pricing on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions: Study of Beijing
  Abstract: The rapidly growing number of motorized vehicles in Beijing puts a high pressure on the city’s transport systems. At the same time, greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants as well as external costs of traffic congestion are increasing. City government and decision makers are increasingly interested in understanding the effectiveness of travel demand management measures to reduce congestions and considering as an important instrument for meeting the carbon emission reduction targets. This paper described and demonstrated a detailed bottom-up approach for evaluating greenhouse gas emission impacts along a congestion pricing measure. The approach chosen is to link greenhouse gas emission evaluation to travel activity modeling. A state-of-the-practice regional travel demand model was used to simulate the travel effects of proposed congestion pricing scenarios on the vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) by various modes (vehicle type) and road network Level of Service performance. Combined with energy intensity based emission factors, the emissions are computed as a function of road type, vehicle type, fuel type, traffic volume and network traffic situations. The congestion charging measure was estimated to reduce traffic related carbon dioxide emissions by 19.4 percent and fuel consumption by 21.2 percent within the charging zone, and in the city proper by 2.4 percent. Congestion pricing program for Beijing is technically feasible to ease traffic congestion and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  Authors: Sun, Shengyang; Li, Chunyan; Bongardt, Daniel; Wen, Huimin
  Authors: Sun, Shengyang; Li, Chunyan; Bongardt, Daniel; Wen, Huimin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2693
• Modeling Transportation Affordability with Cumulative Density Function of Mathematical Beta Distribution
  Abstract: Transportation affordability refers to people’s financial ability to access important goods and activities such as work, education, medical care, basic shopping and socializing. Making transportation more affordable can produce considerable socio-economic benefits by lowering the costs and boosting mobility for people that are more disadvantaged. More affordable transportation is equivalent to higher income. There are many factors to consider when evaluating transportation affordability, including housing affordability; land use factors that affect accessibility; the quantity, quality and pricing of mobility options; and individuals’ mobility needs and abilities. Traditional transportation planning hardly takes into account any transportation affordability considerations. Greater emphasis on this field would shed more light on affordability impacts and help policy makers to identify more affordable transportation solutions. However, to take transportation affordability into account there should be practical ways of evaluating it.This paper investigates the concept of transportation affordability and suggests a metric for its measurement. The metric calculates affordability based on the tradeoffs that households make between transportation and housing costs. The transportation costs considered include car ownership, car use and public transport costs. The suggested approach can be applied to any spatial zone (e.g. neighborhood or other) to reflect the average expenditure that households are willing to make to satisfy their basic travel needs.
  Authors: Panou, Konstantinos; Proios, George
  Authors: Panou, Konstantinos; Proios, George
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-2708
• Who are the ‘Drivers’ of Peak Car? A Decomposition of Recent Car Travel Trends for Six Industrialized Countries
  Abstract: This study investigates the contribution of the aging of the population and changes of travel behavior by different age groups to ‘peak car’ in France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA. The term ‘peak car’ has been coined for the recent trend reversal in car travel development observed in some industrialized countries. Also in our study countries, car travel was characterized by growth for a long time but started to show signs of stagnation or even decrease in the last decade. We analyze underlying travel trends since the mid-1990s and use a trend decomposition based on descriptive statistics from National Travel Surveys and Laspeyres indices. The results indicate that relevant developments had different weight in shaping ‘peak car’ in our study countries. In many places, the aging of the population has been an important contributor to ‘peak car’. In Japan, aging was the most important factor limiting growth of car travel. In all study countries except the USA, where car ownership of seniors hasn’t grown further, increasing car ownership and car use of seniors has contributed to increasing car travel and thus has exerted a damping influence on ‘peak car’. Another important development were new travel trends among young adults. In three study countries the contribution of the decreased car orientation of young adults to ‘peak car’ is crucial: If young adults’ car ownership and / or car mode share would not have decreased, we would not have seen declining total car kilometers per capita in Germany and much stronger increases in Britain and Norway.
  Authors: Kuhnimhof, Tobias; Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian
  Authors: Kuhnimhof, Tobias; Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-2715
• Bicriterion Shortest-Path Problem with a General Nonadditive Cost
  Abstract: A bicriterion shortest path problem with a general nonadditive cost seeks to optimize a combination oftwo path attributes, one of which is evaluated by a nonlinear function. The paper identifies a number ofemerging transportation applications for which such a shortest path problem might be considered a coresubproblem. We propose to first approximate the general nonlinear attribute function with a piecewise linearcounterpart, and then solve each linear subproblem sequentially. A specialized method is developed tosolve subproblems, which makes use of the efficient path set (or the convex hull) to update upper and lowerbounds of the original problem. Conditions under which the solution to a subproblem must belong to theefficient path set are specified. Accordingly, we verify an established result in the piecewise linear case,that the optimal path must be efficient if the nonlinear attribute function is concave. If the optimal path to asubproblem is not efficient, partial path enumeration, implemented using a simple K-shortest path rankingprocedure, is conducted to close the duality gap. The proposed algorithm includes strategies aiming to minimizethe efforts for such path enumeration by making use of upper bounds available from the efficient pathset. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposedalgorithm.
  Authors: Chen, Peng; Nie, Yu
  Authors: Chen, Peng; Nie, Yu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-2771
• Continuous-Time Dynamic System Optimal for Single-Destination Traffic Networks Considering Queue Spillbacks
  Abstract: Dynamic system optimal (DSO) is a special case of the general dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) and it predicts the optimal traffic states of a network under time-dependent traffic conditions from the perspective of the entire system. In this paper, an optimal control framework is proposed for the continuous-time DSO problem for single-destination traffic networks. Departure time choice is part of the DSO formulation to properly capture the waiting time of vehicles at the origins. The double-queue model is also applied to capture possible queue spillbacks. Solution existence conditions and model properties are discussed. A continuous-time holding-free condition for the DSO model is given. Reformulation schemes of the objective function to achieve desired DSO solutions such as the free-flow and holding-free solutions are proposed. Discretization method is applied and numerical results on a small testing network are shown.
  Authors: Ma, Rui; Ban, Xuegang (Jeff); Pang, Jong-Shi
  Authors: Ma, Rui; Ban, Xuegang (Jeff); Pang, Jong-Shi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 451
  Paper Number: 13-2752
• Testing the Influence of Urban Design Features on Perceptions of Walking Environment Attractiveness
  Abstract: The potential environmental and health benefits of active transportation modes (e.g., walking and cycling) have led to considerable research on the influence of the built environment on travel. This paper presents the findings of a study combining environmental audits and a survey-based respondent mapping tool to test the influence of micro-scale built environment characteristics, including “green street” storm water management features, on resident perceptions of walking environment attractiveness. Results suggest that this method is sensitive enough to unpack a concept like walkability into individual component characteristics. Findings from an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model indicate that in a predominantly single-family residential context well-designed green street facilities, as well as other features such as parks, separation from vehicle traffic, and pedestrian network connectivity can significantly contribute to walking environment attractiveness.
  Authors: Adkins, Arlie; Dill, Jennifer; Luhr, Gretchen; Neal, Margaret
  Authors: Adkins, Arlie; Dill, Jennifer; Luhr, Gretchen; Neal, Margaret
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-2813
• Low-Mass Urban Microcars for Emerging Market Megacities
  Abstract: For rapidly growing vehicle markets, small, low mass vehicles show promise. New regulatory norms are needed that take into account the differing operating environments and demands of these vehicles. We explore the potential for such vehicles to meet the demands of consumers and transportation systems in emerging markets, particularly in dense megacities, initially as commercial last-mile transportation and more broadly for private automobile consumers. We propose a regulatory template for these “Urban Microcars” that considers potential energy, emissions, and safety impacts, and borrows features from the Low Speed Vehicle (LSV) category in the U.S. and the L5e Motor Tricycle and L7e heavy Quadricycle norms in the European Union.
  Authors: Cahill, Eric C.; Taylor, Bill; Sperling, Daniel
  Authors: Cahill, Eric C.; Taylor, Bill; Sperling, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Environment; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 278
  Paper Number: 13-2844
• Using Bicycles for Daily Commuting in Belo Horizonte, Brazil: Assessment of User Willingness Level with Spatial and Heterogeneity Considerations
  Abstract: The use of bicycles as a transportation mode for daily commuting trips has proven beneficial to both urban traffic conditions and travelers’ health. In order to efficiently design facilities and policies that will stimulate bicycle use, it is necessary to first understand people’s attitudes towards bicycle use, and the factors that may influence their preferences. Meanwhile, it should be expected that people’s willingness to use bicycles as their daily commuting mode is also subject to the influence of their neighbors and individual heterogeneity. This paper uses a spatial random parameter ordered probit model to analyze how travelers’ willingness to use bicycles is influenced by various socioeconomic factors in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, with the consideration of spatial dependency and heterogeneity across individuals. The model is estimated using the composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach, and results show that bicycle use is more favored by travelers with lower household income, lower commuting time, and who rent apartments. If a person is currently using a bicycle or walking to work, he/she would be most willing to commute with a bicycle in the future. Those currently commuting bymotorcycle and bus follow this group in terms of willingness to commute by bicycle in the future.. Car users seem to be difficult to convert to bicycle users. Moreover, the estimation shows clear evidence that significant personal heterogeneity indeed exists, especially for education level, necessitating the consideration of such an effect. The analysis framework developed in this study as well as the findings provide valuable insights into people’s opinion towards the use of bicycles for daily transportation.
  Authors: Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Zhang, Dapeng; Magalhães, David
  Authors: Wang, Xiaokun (Cara); Zhang, Dapeng; Magalhães, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 735
  Paper Number: 13-2846
• Day-to-Day Origin-Destination Tuple Estimation and Predictionwith Hierarchical Bayesian Networks Using Multiple Data Sources
  Abstract: Predicting traffic demand becomes essential, either to understand what the traffic state is in the future or to take necessary measures for alleviating the congestion in the next time period. Usually, an origin destination matrix (OD) is used to represent traffic demand between two zones in transportation planning. Vehicles are assumed to be homogenous and the trips of each vehicle are examined separately. In fact, this traditional OD-matrix lacks of a behavioral basis and trip based model structure. There is additionally another research stream of travel activity-based research which digs into the individual travel behaviors. The stream really takes care of the trip chain for travelers. But their research scope is on the attributes of the trips, ignoring the road network. In order to link these two fields and to better predict traffic demand, we propose the concept of Origin Destination Tuple (ODT), as a sequence dependent OD pairs. Although the ODT requires additional assumptions to the prediction process, the help of advanced monitoring systems to identify and track vehicles in the road network can mitigate additional uncertainties, reducing the under-specification more specifically. We propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Networks mechanism in the Gaussian Space to get the posterior of uncertain parameters. The model includes level and trend components to make prediction of future traffic volumes. A case study demonstrates that the proposed method is feasible to predict the demand and the path flow from cameras can reduce the uncertainty in the estimation and prediction process, especially for the OD-tuple.
  Authors: Ma, Yinyi
  Authors: Ma, Yinyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2861
• Decision-Making Process for Developing Urban Freight Consolidation Centers: Analysis with Experimental Economics
  Abstract: The concept of freight consolidation centers (FCC) has emerged in recent years, and. various case studies and analytical methods have been applied to determine the best conditions for FCC development. Although several studies have indicated that FCCs are beneficial to the operation of urban transportation systems, the implementation of this concept has proven difficult. One critical reason is that the construction and operation of a FCC involves the coordination of different, and in many cases, conflicting, stakeholders. Unlike other traditional approaches, this paper investigates the freight consolidation center development problem with experimental economics. First, profit functions are defined for involved stakeholders, and based on those profit functions, four players--representing carriers, operators, government and residents--bid on rent, financial incentives and wages in order to maximize their own profit. Eight scenarios are analyzed and compared to determine potential influential factors and appropriate conditions for FCC decision-making. Results show that organization, location and carrier size have direct impacts on different players’ profits. Outskirt location and larger carrier size lead to higher carrier, and operator profits. Outskirt location also increases residents’ profits, bid rents and bid wages. Different organization partnerships could either increase or decrease players’ profits and bid prices. In conclusion, the appropriate conditions for FCC development would be public-private-partnership, outskirt location and larger carrier size.
  Authors: Zhou, Yiwei; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)
  Authors: Zhou, Yiwei; Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-2860
• Model-Based Dynamic Pricing Algorithm for Managed Lanes
  Abstract: Managed lanes, or high occupancy toll (HOT) lanes have been implemented across US to improve the utility of existing road facilities. The pricing algorithm in managed lanes is the critical component in making sure that the desired level of service metrics is met. Some pricing algorithms currently in use are static algorithms, while others adopt a dynamic strategy. Static pricing algorithms do not account for the changes in real time traffic conditions. On the other hand, dynamic pricing algorithms are reactive in nature, and do not account for the potential demand for actual future time interval that the toll is determined for. HOT system is nonlinear and complex in nature leading to high levels of instability in such a system. This complexity has been increasing due to the growth in demand as well as incorporation of non-interacting other strategies that are implemented to address this demand. Hence, more sophisticated designs of the pricing algorithm are needed for HOT pricing control. A model-based pricing algorithm is proposed for determining toll rate dynamically to maximize the throughput on the HOT lanes while maintaining desired level of service (LOS). It consists of both proactive and reactive components to achieve fast response to real-time changes and maintain a steady, maximal traffic flow. The controller structure also incorporates active bottleneck management to maintain optimal traffic flow under stressed conditions. Implementation of this controller has led to higher average HOT throughput. Also, the results are less sensitive to the variation in the traffic flow and driver behavior as compared to a typical feedback based pricing algorithm.
  Authors: Fu, Lina; Kulkarni, Rakesh
  Authors: Fu, Lina; Kulkarni, Rakesh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-2911
• Improving A Cyclist and Pedestrian Environment While Maintaining Vehicle Throughput: A Pre- And Post-Construction Street Analysis
  Abstract: Reallocating road space to enhance bicycle and pedestrian access is frequently a contentious issue in many American cities. This is true in Eugene, Oregon, where a key street segment, adjacent to a pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly university, was retrofitted to better accommodate non-motorized users. Intending to expand pedestrian and bicycle access, a bicycle lane was actually removed in one direction in favor of implementing a shared lane, and physical barriers between an existing contraflow bicycle lane and a one-way automobile traffic lane were removed. Additionally, two-sided parallel parking stalls were replaced with single-sided, back-in angle parking stalls (a first for Eugene), and sidewalks were widened to better accommodate high pedestrian volumes. Using video footage to record behavior along this block before and after the re-design occurred, this study focuses on traffic volume changes by mode and changes in behavior. Results demonstrate that bicycle volumes increased, pedestrian crossing volumes increased and vehicular traffic volumes showed little change after re-design. The integration of bicycle and vehicular traffic lanes and removal of physical barriers improved non-motorized safety, as the rate of traffic conflicts remained low, no collisions occurred, and the re-design provided new ways for convenient navigation around blockages. Despite a perceived increase in chaos, given increased non-motorized traffic volumes, this block became no less safe after re-design even though non-motorized traffic volumes and adaptive use of the space greatly increased. Examination of the particular elements of this re-design provides insight into ways other multimodal traffic streams can be improved.
  Authors: Barnes, Emma; Schlossberg, Marc A.
  Authors: Barnes, Emma; Schlossberg, Marc A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 827
  Paper Number: 13-2900
• Marked Versus Unmarked Pedestrian Road Crossing Behavior at Uncontrolled Midblock Crosswalk in Mixed Traffic Condition
  Abstract: The pedestrian road crossing facilities in developing countries are quite diverse from that of developed countries. Also the strategies and research studies of the developed countries cannot be conveyed into developing countries without any research attempt. This research explores factors associated with marked and unmarked pedestrian road crossing behaviour and developed predictive models for crossing behaviour using multiple linear regression (MLR) and binary logit model (BLM) in mixed traffic condition. Developed models were considered vehicular flow, roadway, pedestrian characteristics and pedestrian behavioural tactics at the crosswalk on pedestrian behavioural response as variables. The data were collected at two uncontrolled midblock crosswalks: one midblock location with a partial right of way for pedestrian by marking (Zebra marks) in Mumbai, and another one is no right of way to pedestrian i.e., unmarked midblock crossing in Hyderabad. Models show that there is a significantly lower potential for conflict if pedestrians cross at marked midblock roadway instead of unmarked location also the rolling gap plays a major role in unmarked midblock locations. Results show that the developed models are performing better than the other existing models in mixed traffic condition.
  Authors: Kadali, Bhadradri Raghuram; Vedagiri, Perumal
  Authors: Kadali, Bhadradri Raghuram; Vedagiri, Perumal
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-2943
• Active Transportation Beyond Urban Centers
  Abstract: Conventional wisdom and previous research hold that walking and bicycling for transportation purposes are not common outside of urban areas. This hypothesis is based on a binary classification of land area into two categories, urban and rural. This paper applies a novel seven-category typology of rurality to the 2009 National Household Travel Survey to investigate the true prevalence of nonmotorized travel behavior in multiple types of rural areas. We find that walking and bicycling are more common in rural areas than previously thought. The paper tests additional hypotheses about trip purpose and trip length to understand more about these “active” trips. These results have direct relevance for the work of planners, decision-makers, and walking and bicycling advocates in rural areas and at the federal level.
  Authors: Hadden-Loh, Tracy; Sonenklar, Daniel
  Authors: Hadden-Loh, Tracy; Sonenklar, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-2951
• Modeling Combined Travel Choices of Electric Vehicle Drivers with a Variational Inequality Network Formulation
  Abstract: Government incentives and policies can make plug-in electric vehicles more attractive. However, determining the incentives which provide the greatest social benefits requires tractable modeling techniques that can incorporate the unique features of electric vehicles. This paper develops models describing the differences in travel behavior between electric and gasoline vehicle drivers, investigating both the temporal and spatial travel choices behavior of these drivers. A multi-class quasi-dynamic model formulation is presented in the form of variational inequality. An optimization-based heuristic method is adopted to solve the model. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to show that the model generates a network equilibrium solution of the combined choices.
  Authors: Zhang, Ti; Boyles, Stephen; Waller, S. Travis
  Authors: Zhang, Ti; Boyles, Stephen; Waller, S. Travis
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-2619
• Modeling Uncertainty in Households’ Activity Engagement Decisions
  Abstract: Studying travel behavior and activity engagement in an activity-based framework has been a focus of research for nearly half a century. A number of elegant and comprehensive models have been developed to address questions pertaining to activity participation, agenda formation, scheduling, and travel behavior of individuals. Despite the progress made in activity-based models, there is still a significant need for model improvements in the sense of modeling activity selection procedure and scheduling. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive model, which is the integration of discrete choice models, fuzzy concepts and Household Activity Pattern Problem (HAPP) to forecast household activity pattern based on socio-demographic characteristics. By using the values of probabilities obtained from a multivariate probit model applied to clustered households and mapping them to a set of fuzzy graphs, we compute the possibility of inclusion of an activity in the agenda. Activity scheduling and selection is then modeled as the outcome of a mixed integer optimization problem, in which the objective function is maximizing the expected desirability gained from activities and total saved time, subject to network connectivity, time windows, time budget and cost budget constraints.
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh; Recker, Will
  Authors: Allahviranloo, Mahdieh; Recker, Will
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 686
  Paper Number: 13-2876
• Effects of Competition Between Two Neighboring Cities on Tolls and Land Use
  Abstract: In this paper we model the impacts of competition between cities when considering demand management strategies on both the optimal tolls and residential location choices. The work builds on earlier work which studied competition in a small network using a static equilibrium approach. That work showed that while both cities have an incentive to charge alone, once they begin, they are likely to fall into a Nash trap or prisoner’s dilemma where both cities are worse off. Our research extends this by setting up a system dynamics model which includes all modes and longer term location responses. An isolated city is studied first and a simple welfare measure is used to determine the optimal toll around the central area and its impacts on location decisions and other transport indicators. A twin city is then added. Traffic from the neighbouring city may be charged and the revenue retained - a form of tax exporting behaviour which should increase the welfare of the city. We study the impact on the optimal tolls set by the cities and how the game develops between cities of equal size and amenity. The impact on location decisions and other transport indicators are presented along-side the implications for regulation and the development of cities within regional partnerships.
  Authors: Shepherd, Simon; Balijepalli, Narasimha Chandrasekhar
  Authors: Shepherd, Simon; Balijepalli, Narasimha Chandrasekhar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-2566
• Do Your Neighbors Affect Your Mode Choice? Spatial Probit Model for Commuting to Ohio State University
  Abstract: Neighborhood effects have recently become a focus of interest in transportation research, whereby transportation mode choice is not only affected by an individual’s characteristics and the physical conditions of the transportation system, but also by the mode choices of that individual’s neighbors. This study supports the neighborhood effects argument, using a spatial econometrics approach and data from The Ohio State University’s 2011 Campus Transportation Survey. A spatial probit model of commuters’ mode choices (auto versus non-auto) is estimated, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The results reveal that the more non-auto (walking, bicycling, and transit) users are residing around an individual, the more attractive these modes become for this individual. In addition to these spatial effects, the results indicate that students are more likely to commute to campus by non-auto modes, as compared to faculty and staff, and that the probability of choosing non-auto modes decreases with distance from campus. Feeling of safety, duration of travel, flexibility of departure time, ability to make stops on the way to/from campus, and attitudes towards auto use (being a car patron or a captive user), also affect an individual’s mode choice. These findings provide campus transportation planners new insights on the factors influencing travel mode choices.
  Authors: Wang, Chih-Hao; Akar, Gulsah; Guldmann, Jean-Michel
  Authors: Wang, Chih-Hao; Akar, Gulsah; Guldmann, Jean-Michel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-2907
• City Logistics: Freight Management with Time-Dependent Travel Times and Application to Large-Scale Networks
  Abstract: In this paper, we address freight management in large, congested urban settings. Congestion creates a substantial variation in travel time (speeds) during morning peak and evening peak periods. Urban route designs that ignore these significant variations are often found to be inefficient or even infeasible within a congested traffic environment. This limitation may lead to delays, higher operational costs, and inferior customer service. To take account of the dynamics of traffic conditions, the proposed modeling framework includes an underlying dynamic network traffic simulation-assignment (DTA) model which is able to compute time-dependent shortest paths (TDSP) and simulate individual vehicles on a more realistic representation of the urban road network elements, including signalization, ramp metering, and other operational controls. An intuitive and efficient heuristic solution algorithm is proposed, which combines the classical k-opt exchanges to improve the solution and a procedure to reduce the number of vehicles out for service. No parameter tuning is required and no random choice is made. The integrated modeling framework is capable of addressing TDVRP of practical sizes on a real world urban network, demonstrated here on the Chicago area network, with problem instances of up to 500 customers with TDSP updated at 10-minute intervals.
  Authors: Jiang, Lan; Mahmassani, Hani S.
  Authors: Jiang, Lan; Mahmassani, Hani S.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-2963
• Bicycle Parking Behavior
  Abstract: The bicycle plays an important role in the multimodal chain, both as an access mode and as an egress mode. The other side of the coin is, however, an ever-growing need for bicycle parking capacity. An analysis of parking behaviour in Delft shows that trying to achieve symmetry between access and egress modes does not offer a solution, because the higher frequency of access transport is counterbalanced by longer parking for egress transport. It is mainly commuters who use guarded bicycle sheds and better-quality bicycles, while students try to avoid these extra costs. Competition in local public transport is also only a factor among students because of the availability of a free public transport pass. The choice between the central station and a more peripheral station largely depends on the cycling distance, the position of the stations in the rail network and the presence of guarded parking facilities.
  Authors: Maat, Kees
  Authors: Maat, Kees
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-2976
• The Revealed Willingness to Pay for Leisure: The Link Between Structural and Microeconomic Models of Time Use
  Abstract: There are many approaches to explain time allocation to activities as a function of independent variables; their purpose is to study time use and to understand and measure values of time. The idea of this paper is to present a new theoretical construct, the revealed willingness to pay for leisure (RWPL) as a link between two powerful time use models: the microeconomic utility theory approach and the structural equations modeling method (SEM). To do this, the theoretical formulation of each approach is presented and enriched using previous experience; then using a database created from the Origin Destination Survey of 2001 in the city of Santiago, Chile, the two approaches are used to calculate the values of times. We estimate a structural equations model that keeps the generic features of the approach as applied to time use modeling, but improves incorporating expenses as well as activities and socioeconomic variables, following Konduri et al (2011). The endogenous variables are working time, recreation time and recreational expenses. The explanatory variables are age, income, committed (unavoidable and irreducible) time and committed expenses, inspired by the microeconomic model. The new equation on expenses in a leisure activity permits the calculation of a revealed willingness to pay for leisure (RWPL), which we show to be theoretically different from the value of leisure under a microeconomic formulation.Then we estimate a system of equations for working time, the time allocated at home and the expenses in “out of home entertainment” following the microeconomic model of Jara-Díaz and Guerra (2003) that has the wage rate, committed time and committed expenses as explanatory variables. This is done for different segments of the population according to age, gender and zone of residence. This model permits the calculation of the values of leisure and work. The main conclusions are that the SEM does not permit the calculation of the full value of leisure and that the microeconomic approach needs an explicit constraint relating goods consumption and time use.
  Authors: Jara-Diaz, Sergio; Astroza, Sebastian
  Authors: Jara-Diaz, Sergio; Astroza, Sebastian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 539
  Paper Number: 13-3111
• Exploration of Intrahousehold Motorized Vehicle Allocation Using 2009 National Household Travel Survey
  Abstract: This study examines intra-household vehicle allocation to drivers and trips using data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey and is motivated by the fact that reallocating household vehicles is a reasonable short-term action to reduce fuel and associated emissions. Models are developed for households in the national sample and for segmentations by population and Census regions. Binomial logistic regression is used to model whether a household fleet is optimal and whether a household is a high potential saver (HPS). Of households with two or more vehicles, 31% are classified as HPS. Linear regression is used to model the number of gallons of fuel a household can potentially save per year with vehicle reallocation. About 59% of households can reduce fuel consumption by an estimated 5.2%, or approximately five billion gallons of fuel nationally, if they reallocate their fleet. Household size and lifecycle, travel behavior, and fleet composition are related to intra-household vehicle allocation. Similar variables are significant predictors of potential gallons of savings and whether a household is an HPS. Models are consistent across regions with minor exceptions. Rural areas had differences from more urban areas. This study has demonstrated that appreciable savings in fuel consumption and associated emissions is plausible through vehicle reallocation and the ability to pursue this countermeasure in the short-term motivates further research to more fully understand causal mechanisms and target households for intervention.
  Authors: Nam, Richard; Lee, Brian H. Y.; Aultman-Hall, Lisa; Sears, Justine
  Authors: Nam, Richard; Lee, Brian H. Y.; Aultman-Hall, Lisa; Sears, Justine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 686
  Paper Number: 13-3089
• Functionings Enhanced by Social Networks in Elder’s Activity Participations: The Capability Approach
  Abstract: Social networks can generate desires to perform activities with others (activity opportunities), while it can also provide mobility especially for those who cannot use a car (mobility support). In this sense, at least two different functionings could be enhanced by social networks, but these two aspects have not been well distinguished in activity-travel behavior analysis. This study first attempts to develop a conceptual framework based on Senfs Capability Approach to shed light on the multiple roles of social networks in elderfs activity-travel decisions. We then develop a simple operational method by utilizing logsum measures in order to empirically identify the roles of social networks and these impacts on activity-travel behavior. The empirical analysis is conducted focusing on elderfs social, shopping and leisure activity participations in a typical newtown in Hiroshima, Japan. The results show that family members may only contribute to the increase in mobility support, while friends may contribute to both social network roles in the case study area. We also find that activity opportunities have positive impacts on social and shopping activity participations, but less significant impacts on leisure activities.
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Kuwano, Masashi; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Chikaraishi, Makoto; Fujiwara, Akimasa; Kuwano, Masashi; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3112
• Fuel Use and Optimality of Assignments in Multivehicle Households: Trends from 2001 to 2009
  Abstract: Multi-vehicle household fleets are often composed of vehicles with a wide range of attributes, including passenger and cargo capacities, towing capability, and fuel consumption. Decisions for how these vehicles are assigned to trips can have a significant impact on a household’s total fuel use. In this paper, actual vehicle assignments from the 2001 and 2009 NHTS data are compared to the fuel use-minimizing decisions using CTRAM — a model which determines optimal vehicle-to-trip assignments considering constraints on vehicle availability and capability.Results show that the average potential reduction in fuel use through optimal assignment for multi-vehicle households was 10.9% in 2001 and 10.2% in 2009. However, the increase in assignment optimality that is seen in this period does not appear to be the result of a greater prevalence of active, short-term vehicle assignment decisions, such as a driver’s voluntary use of a non-preferred vehicle, or switching vehicles mid-day. This finding provides evidence that the higher level of assignment optimality in 2009 was influenced by other, possibly longer-term decisions, such as considering fuel consumption in purchase decisions according to the primary driver’s expected usage of the vehicle (e.g. a small, efficient vehicle for long-distance work commuting). The significance of this conclusion is reinforced by the finding that increases in assignment optimality are smaller in lower income households, possibly due to the lack of efficient vehicles in the secondary market in the years preceding the 2009 survey.
  Authors: Bolon, Kevin; Keoleian, Greg; Kostyniuk, Lidia P.
  Authors: Bolon, Kevin; Keoleian, Greg; Kostyniuk, Lidia P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 833
  Paper Number: 13-3159
• Sequential Bayesian Model for Network Design Problem with Uncertainties
  Abstract: Formulations for the Network Design Problem with Uncertainty (NDPU) usually characterize uncertainty by a discrete scenario set and tend not to fully explore the inherent correlations between different alternatives. As a result, solving the NDPU problem typically requires simulating an unnecessarily large number of candidate solutions. To facilitate more efficient use of the simulation runs, in this paper we formulate the NDPU problem as a constrained Bayesian Ranking and Selection (R&S) problem with correlated beliefs. In this formulation, each solution to the NDPU problem represents an "alternative" and the corresponding objective value represents a "reward" we want to maximize. We adaptively update our belief about the mean and covariance of the rewards of all alternatives through sequential simulation decisions. Constraints of the NDPU problem in the Bayesian R&S formulation are handled by penalizing the rewards of infeasible solutions while uncertainties are modeled by continuous probability distributions on the rewards. The constrained Bayesian R&S problem can then be solved by a Knowledge-Gradient-based method called the KGCB algorithm, which we modify to account for unknown variances of the alternatives. We apply our methodology to the Sioux Fall network as a case study. Results showed that the Bayesian R&S formulation, solved with the KGCB algorithm, converges faster than a fine-tuned Genetic Algorithm solver in the deterministic case and in addition saves as much as 80% of the simulation samples on average in the stochastic case. The methodologies developed can also be applied more broadly to a larger class of transportation problems with similar structures.
  Authors: Wang, Xun; Gao, H. Oliver
  Authors: Wang, Xun; Gao, H. Oliver
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-3168
• Understanding Urban Human Activity and Mobility Patterns Using Large-Scale Location-Based Data from Online Social Media
  Abstract: Location-based check-in services enable individuals to share their activity-related choicesproviding a new source of human activity data for researchers. In this paper urban humanmobility and activity patterns are analyzed using location-based data collected from socialmedia applications (e.g. Foursquare and Twitter). We first characterize aggregate activitypatterns by finding the distributions of different activity categories over a city geographyand thus determine the purpose-specific activity centers. We then characterize individualactivity patterns by finding the timing distribution of visiting different places depending onactivity category. We also explore the frequency of visiting a place with respect to the rankof the place in individual's visitation records and show interesting match with other resultsbased on mobile phone mobility data. We finally propose a physics-based model of humanmobility patterns that can explain the scaling laws observed in the data.
  Authors: Hasan, Samiul; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Zhan, Xianyuan
  Authors: Hasan, Samiul; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Zhan, Xianyuan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 299
  Paper Number: 13-3172
• How Urban Commercial Vehicle Trips Are Chained: Case Studies in Texas and Idaho
  Abstract: Freight transportation is an important part of in the urban transportation system and contributes to traffic congestion, pollution, infrastructure damage, etc. Previously we studied the commercial vehicle trip-chaining and tour-chaining patterns in five Texas metropolitan regions (‎1). In this paper, we furthered our previous empirical study by adding one more study area in Idaho to the case study set. Two tour choice models were fitted, one for each region, with the commercial vehicle survey data obtained for Texas and Idaho. Model results showed that commercial vehicle trip-chaining strategies are associated with cargo type, travel purpose, travel time, dwell time and tour destination. Furthermore, there is large cross-regional variation in urban commercial vehicle movements between Texas and Idaho. That confirms that region specific freight data collection and modeling efforts are needed. Further investigation is in need to incorporate urban structure, land use and economic activities into the modeling effort pending on data availability.
  Authors: Lin, Jie (Jane); Zhou, Wei
  Authors: Lin, Jie (Jane); Zhou, Wei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-3121
• Nonholding Back Linear Programming Model for System Optimum Dynamic Traffic Assignment Problem
  Abstract: This paper proposes a non-holding back linear programming (NHBLP) model embedding the cell transmission model (CTM), the basis of which refers to Ziliaskopoulos (2000), to account for the system optimum dynamic traffic assignment problems. The first part of the paper elaborates on the model’s properties which explicitly address most of the limitations from Ziliaskopoulos’s (2000) formulation while preserving the linear nature of the objective function and constraints by introducing the effortless implementable scheme of penalty label for the network. Rigorous proof is presented, complemented with the marginal cost analysis, to show that the optimal solution of the NHBLP formulation completely resolves the unrealistic holding-back issue. The second part of the paper demonstrates the properties of the NHBLP formulation with various test networks. A test network demonstrates the ability to test the route choice behavior in an accident scenario.
  Authors: Zhu, Feng; Ukkusuri, Satish V.
  Authors: Zhu, Feng; Ukkusuri, Satish V.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 451
  Paper Number: 13-3232
• Convergence Analysis of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimators of a Transportation Mode Choice Model
  Abstract: Although Bayes estimators are attractive for problems involving non-convex optimization and for weakly identified discrete choice models, researchers in travel behavior modeling seem somewhat reluctant to adopt the Bayesian framework. A common argument against simulation-based Bayes estimators is that there are no general rules for assessing convergence. In this paper, we study convergence of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimator of a discrete choice model via the empirical analysis of travel mode choice using a series of commonly used diagnostics. We also compare the behavior of the posterior first and second moments with the point estimates of maximum simulated likelihood. Some of the tests are more conservative than others, suggesting the use of a longer chain (500,000 iterations for the specific empirical problem being analyzed), while other test provide evidence in favor of a shorter chain (50,000 iterations). The comparison with the maximum simulated likelihood estimator shows that the only problem with 50,000 iterations is the loss of efficiency in the determination of the nuisance parameters.
  Authors: Daziano, Ricardo A.; Wang, Chen
  Authors: Daziano, Ricardo A.; Wang, Chen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3233
• Game Theory-Based Optimization of Taxi Fare in Taxi Market of China
  Abstract: The hearing system provides a game platform for dealing with the optimization problem of taxi fare due to the taxi market regulations and the variation of operating cost in taxi market of China. In this paper, a bi-level programming model is proposed for optimization of taxi fare in monopoly market, as simultaneously considers the equilibrium between the social welfare and profit of taxi firms. The upper-level problem is a set of formulations ensuring maximization of social welfare under constrain on taxi fare restriction of government in taxi industry. The lower-level model aims to maximize the profit of taxi firms from fare revenue and maintains the positive value of firm profit and supply-demand equilibrium of taxi market. The Lagrangian approach is used to transform the lower model into upper model with K-K-T conditions, and the bi-level programing model becomes a single-level programing model. The Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing algorithm are respectively designed to solve the model. A numerical calculation is presented to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of proposed model and algorithms in a real urban road network of Harbin.
  Authors: Wang, Jian; Sun, Guanglin; Hu, Xiaowei
  Authors: Wang, Jian; Sun, Guanglin; Hu, Xiaowei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-3243
• Uncovering Influence of Commuters' Perception on Reliability Ratio
  Abstract: The dominant method for measuring values of travel time savings (VOT), and values of travel time reliability (VOR) is discrete choice modeling. Generally, the data sources for these models are: stated choice experiments, and revealed preference observations. There are few studies using revealed preference data. These studies have only used travel times measured by devices such as loop detectors, and thus the perception error of travelers has been largely ignored. In this study, the influence of commuters' perception error is investigated on data collected of commuters recruited from previous research \citep{Carrion2012B, Zhu2010}. The subjects' self-reported travel times from surveys, and the subjects' travel times measured by GPS devices were collected. The results indicate that the subjects reliability ratio is greater than 1 in the models with self-reported travel times. In contrast, subjects reliability ratio is smaller than 1 in the models with travel times as measured by GPS devices.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3248
• Vehicle Ownership in Middle-Class Indian Households: Mobility in Mumbai
  Abstract: As median household incomes rise in India, discretionary spending in the consumption basket is going up, along with increases in transportation budgets. Middle-class households are investing in private vehicles such as motorized two-wheelers (TWs) and cars. This is further adding to negative externalities such as congestion, emissions, higher accident rates, noise pollution, etc.This paper explores the drivers of TW and car ownership in middle-class Indian households. The analysis is conducted using a household travel survey from the Greater Mumbai Region (GMR), where the unit of analysis is the household (N=38,346). Using a discrete choice modeling framework, where the choice set is households having (i) no vehicles, (ii) only TW/s, or (iii) at least one car, the results indicate that utility from vehicle ownership increases with –• Life cycle variables: kids in the household, married status of primary wage earner.• Socio-demographic variables: housing unit characteristics (number of rooms, apartment/independent housing type), primary wage earner’s characteristics (college education, employment status, male), persons in the household.• Other variables: per capita household income, distance from a railway station, primary wage earner’s urban periphery work location, population density at primary wage earner’s work location.These findings illustrate the sensitivity of vehicle ownership not only to life cycle and socio-demographic variables, but also to land use variables such as density, proximity to transit, and jobs-housing locations in the city-region. Policies that encourage both in-city and urban periphery node development, with strategic higher development densities, along with provision of public transportation options are indicated from this research.
  Authors: Shirgaokar, Manish
  Authors: Shirgaokar, Manish
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Environment; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 278
  Paper Number: 13-3249
• Finding Reliable Shortest Paths in Dynamic Stochastic Networks
  Abstract: A reliable a priori shortest path (RASP) offers the least time budget which ensures that a traveler can arrive at the destination on-time with the desired probability. RASP is equivalent to enumeratingall non-dominated paths under the first order stochastic dominance (FSD) rule. Compared with the problem in static networks, the RASP problem becomes more complex in dynamic networks because it is more difficult to compute path travel time distributions. Two modules of process are the keys to solve the RASP problem. One is the convolution scheme (how to compute a path travel time distribution from its member links' travel time distributions), and another one is the stochastic dominance scheme (how to determine non-dominated paths). This paper aims to find an efficient solution algorithm to this problem. Firstly, we develop an alternative convolution method based on adaptive discretization approach which was originally proposed to solve the RASP problem in static networks. On the other hand, we show that the higher order stochastic dominance rule can reduce the number of non-dominated paths, which promises to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments show that the second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) rule offer good approximations, while the CPU time is reduced by at least 50%.
  Authors: Wu, Xing
  Authors: Wu, Xing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-3260
• Travel Time Modeling with Taxi GPS and Household Survey Data
  Abstract: Transportation planning agencies all over the world usually maintain travel time matrices (or network skims) for a small number of time windows. In order to predict travelers' response to congestion mitigation strategies, it becomes essential to develop time of day choice models that require travel time estimates at a finer time resolution. In this paper, we develop regression models to relate travel times collected from taxi GPS data to the network travel times and compare the results to a similar model estimated with household travel survey data. The rationale behind this procedure is to develop a formula that allows the calculation of travel time for any origin-destination pair and for any time of the day, given the network travel times for three time periods (AM peak, PM peak, and off-peak). The two data sources, survey and GPS data, are compared based on descriptive statistics and by plotting the variation of the predicted speed by time of day. Statistical tests are performed to investigate whether the two data sources can be pooled together. The test results indicate that though there are significant differences in the estimated coefficients which do not vary across time of day (for example, coefficients of distance, and central business district indicators), the two data sources exhibit comparable profiles of time of day variation in speed up to a certain scale.
  Authors: Li, Siyu; Enam, Annesha; Abou Zeid, Maya; Ben-Akiva, Moshe E.
  Authors: Li, Siyu; Enam, Annesha; Abou Zeid, Maya; Ben-Akiva, Moshe E.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3297
• On the Way or Around the Corner? Observed Refueling Choices of Alternative-Fuel-Vehicle Drivers in Southern California
  Abstract: Limited refueling infrastructure is an oft-cited barrier to alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) adoption, but empirical data on AFV driver refueling behavior are rare. To address this need, we surveyed 259 drivers of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles in Southern California at five stations across the metropolitan area. The key survey questions concerned the stops immediately before and after refueling and the driver’s home location. Using GIS, we analyze the least travel-time routes and the station chosen to provide insight into what drivers consider to be their most convenient refueling location. Specifically, we focus on whether they select stations nearer to home or on routes that require the least deviation, when faced with a choice between the two—that is, when no station satisfies both criteria. We demonstrate that, in such situations, CNG drivers are ten times more likely to select a station more on their way between a given origin and destination than a station closest to home. This finding supports the notion that flow-based optimal location models may be more appropriate than point-based models for planning early AFV refueling infrastructures, and that locations near high-volume roads may be ideal early candidates for station sites.
  Authors: Kelley, Scott; Kuby, Michael
  Authors: Kelley, Scott; Kuby, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-3280
• Transition to a Transit City: Case of Beijing, China
  Abstract: Over the past three decades, urban transportation system in Beijing has been undergoing tremendous changes. Beijing has been transformed from a city that was dominated by non-motorized transportation to an almost car- saturated city. To combat the ever-growing traffic gridlock, the city in recent years has been working proactively on fulfilling its long-term vision: the building of a transit city. This paper presents the city’s evolution path toward a more sustainable transportation system from a mobility culture perspective. More specifically, three aspects are focused, namely travel demand, mobility pattern and transportation policy.
  Authors: Song, Ziqi
  Authors: Song, Ziqi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation
  Session: 492
  Paper Number: 13-3310
• Calibration of User Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes
  Abstract: We calibrate a user equilibrium model with heterogeneous risk attitudes using laboratory data collected from human subjects making repeated route choices and collectively generating congestion in a hypothetical network subject to random disruptions. A traveler is assumed to take the minimum expected disutility route, where the disutility is a power function of the travel time and the value of the power determines the risk attitude. A multi-class user equilibrium model is developed where travelers have different risk attitudes across classes. The discretized probability distribution of the risk attitude is calibrated by minimizing the deviation of the predicted route flows from the observed route flows averaged over a relative steady period. A crude disaggregate analysis is conducted for each individual so that constraints on the risk attitude distribution are derived and the search space is reduced. Uniform distributions with parameters that differ in the risk averse and seeking ranges are used. Most subjects seem to be risk seeking, which might be due to the recency effect found in psychology literature that human beings put more weights on recent outcomes and thus frequencies of rare events (incidents that reduce road capacities in the experiment) are underestimated.
  Authors: Pothering, Ryan Joseph; Gao, Song
  Authors: Pothering, Ryan Joseph; Gao, Song
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-3641
• Statistical and Analytical Modeling of Children’s Travel Behavior:Some Evidence on the Cultural Effects
  Abstract: Children lifestyle including their travel and activity pattern is highly influenced by their household characteristics. Household socioeconomic characteristics determine most aspects of children's life including their school location, and school travel mode choice. A statistical analysis and discrete choice modeling approach is conducted in this paper to investigate the primary school children travel behavior. This study focused on representative trip chain, mode choice, school location and escort status as fundamental elements in children’s trips pattern. Contingency analysis is used to check for the correlation among explanatory variables such as household socioeconomics, gender and city with intended travel behavioral aspects. Statistical analysis revealed that gender and family car ownership are two of the most efficacious parameters. A two stage discrete choice model is used for modeling decision process among children and their parents in their behavior. This study shows that parent’s attitude about their children is highly affected by child’s gender and this is due to some cultural and religious believers of Iranian household.
  Authors: Arman, Mohammad Ali; Kalantari, Navid
  Authors: Arman, Mohammad Ali; Kalantari, Navid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3669
• Beyond Westway and After Terrorist Attacks of 9/11: Citizens' Role and Route 9A
  Abstract: From 1973 to the present day, New York City’s Route 9A – from Battery Park to West 59th Street has been transformed from a crumbling 1930’s elevated highway in a derelict post-maritime environment of rotting piers and abandoned buildings into a first class multi-modal, at-grade tree-lined urban boulevard with a recreation focus. Route 9A connects Lower Manhattan and the west side of Manhattan with the Hudson River Park and waterfront, and has been a premier example of the economic revitalization that can happen when urban design and community involvement combine with engineering and the environment. The New York State Department of Transportation reconstructed Route 9A in seven segments and bid as seven contracts. As the last contract was winding down in the roadway directly adjacent to the World Trade Center, the terrorist events of September 11, 2001 occurred, placing a new emphasis on people, the environment, coordination, and rebuilding Lower Manhattan in the post 9/11 environment. Route 9A then and now is a vital link. This paper describes the process of that transformation and how adversity experienced along the way was overcome – both beyond Westway and post 9/11 at the World Trade Center, and the vital citizen’s role in rebuilding Route 9A.
  Authors: Weiss, Lisa D.
  Authors: Weiss, Lisa D.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Society
  Session: 505
  Paper Number: 13-2934
• Effect of Delay Frequency and Duration as a Measure of Reliability on Route Choice
  Abstract: The importance of economic value of travel time reliability and behavioral responses to it are now well recognized in the transportation literature. To justify and incorporate this measure into decision making, public agencies are now more inclined to assess the use of value of travel time reliability in project evaluations. We aim to aid that process by measuring travelers’ behavioral responses to travel time reliability and their willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid unreliable routes. Travelers’ route choice attitudes are measured through a pivoted stated preference (SP) survey technique. The contribution of this study lies in our effort to express travel time reliability based on two dimensions: the frequency of unexpected delay, and the magnitude of unexpected delay. We simply compare days with unexpected delay to days with usual travel time, thereby circumventing the issue of presenting numerical distributions and statistical terms to day-to-day commuters. A mixed logit framework was used to understand travelers’ route choice attitudes. We found that it’s not only the frequency but also the amount of unexpected delay attached to it that predicts the preference over a particular route. The study also contributes to the existing literature by calculating WTP measures that correspond to different levels of frequency of unexpected delay days. We calculated three different WTP measures, including the WTP for travel time, the WTP for frequency embedded travel time, and the WTP for travel time reliability.
  Authors: Sikka, Nikhil; Hanley, Paul F.
  Authors: Sikka, Nikhil; Hanley, Paul F.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 688
  Paper Number: 13-3091
• Descriptive Bayesian Approach to Modeling and Calibrating Drivers' En Route Diversion Behavior
  Abstract: This paper presents a Bayesian approach for modeling and calibrating drivers' en-route route changing decision with behavior data collected from laboratory driving simulators and field blue-tooth detectors. The behavior models are not based on assumptions of perfect rationality. Instead, a novel descriptive approach based on naive Bayes rules is proposed and demonstrated. The en-route diversion model is first estimated with behavior data from a driving simulator. Subsequently, the model is re-calibrated for Maryland, based on blue-tooth detector data, and applied to analyze two dynamic message sign (DMS) scenarios on I-95 and I-895. This calibration method allows researchers and practitioners to transfer the en-route diversion model to other regions based on local observations. Future research can integrate this en-route diversion model with microscopic traffic simulators, dynamic traffic assignment models, and/or activity/agent-based travel demand models for various traffic operations and transportation planning applications.
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: Xiong, Chenfeng; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3334
• Them or Us: Perceptions, Cognitions, Emotions, and Overt Behavior Associated with Cyclists and Motorists Sharing the Road
  Abstract: In emerging cycling regions, cyclists and motorists are forced to share the road due to cycling infrastructure scarcity. This study investigates the chain of external and internal stimuli, inferred cognition, emotion and overt behavior associated with the road sharing experience. The research methodology consists of a thematic-analysis of a heterogeneous sample of 1,844 talk-backs that were posted in response to news items related to cyclist-motorist traffic crashes in Israel. The results show: (i) cycling infrastructure scarcity and perceptions regarding the natural and legal rights of cyclists to use the road act as primary triggers for the emotional stress associated with road sharing; (ii) motorists and cyclists perceive the road sharing experience as life-threatening situation that induces extreme anxiety, anger and fear; (iii) the overt coping strategies of drivers are confrontive, problem-solving and seeking social-support, while the overt coping strategies of cyclists are escape-avoidance, confrontive and problem-solving.
  Authors: Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
  Authors: Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-3204
• Facilitating Fuzzy Rule-Based Evidential Reasoning in the Navigational Risk Assessment of Inland Waterway Transportation System
  Abstract: A novel approach incorporating a fuzzy rule base technique and an Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm is developed to conduct the navigational risk assessment of an Inland Waterway Transportation System (IWTS). A hierarchical structure for modeling IWTS hazards (hazard identification model) is constructed using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative criteria are converted to qualitative ones by applying a fuzzy rule based quantitative data transformation technique, which enables the use of ER to synthesize the risk estimates from the bottom to the top along the hierarchy. Intelligent Decision System (IDS) software is used for facilitating risk synthesis and estimation. The proposed method is applied in a case study to compare the navigational safety levels of three different regions in Yangtze River.
  Authors: Zhang, Di; Yan, Xinping; Zhang, Jinfen; Yang, Zaili; Wang, Jin
  Authors: Zhang, Di; Yan, Xinping; Zhang, Jinfen; Yang, Zaili; Wang, Jin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 345
  Paper Number: 13-3876
• Allowing for Nonadditively Separable and Flexible Utility Forms in Multiple Discrete-Continuous Models
  Abstract: Many consumer choice situations are characterized by the simultaneous demand for multiple alternatives that are imperfect substitutes for one another, along with a continuous quantity dimension for each chosen alternative. To model such multiple discrete-continuous choices, most multiple discrete-continuous models in the literature use an additively-separable utility function, with the assumption that the marginal utility of one good is independent of the consumption of another good. In this paper, we develop model formulations for multiple discrete-continuous choices that allow a non-additive utility structure, and accommodate rich substitution structures and complementarity effects in the consumption patterns. Specifically, three different non-additive utility formulations are proposed based on alternative specifications and interpretations of stochasticity: (1) The deterministic utility random maximization (DU-RM) formulation, which considers stochasticity due to the random mistakes consumers make during utility maximization; (2) The random utility deterministic maximization (RU-DM) formulation, which considers stochasticity due to the analyst’s errors in characterizing the consumer’s utility function; and (3) The random utility random maximization (RU-RM) formulation, which considers both analyst’s errors and consumer’s mistakes within a unified framework. When applied to the consumer expenditure survey data in the United States, the proposed DU-RM and RD-DM non-additively separable utility formulations perform better than the additively separable counterparts, and suggest the presence of substitution and complementarity patterns in consumption.
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4076
• Assessment of the Degree of Willingness to Change from Motorized Travel Modes to Walking or Cycling
  Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the degree of willingness to change from motorized travel modes to walking or cycling. Information was collected in a novel data collection effort based on multiple survey methods. Firstly, respondents traveling by car or transit were asked about their willingness to change to walking or cycling. Secondly, those willing to change participated in a stated tolerance survey to identify the improvement measures required to change. Lastly, a hypothetical scenario was presented to respondents in which previously selected improvement measures were implemented and they were supposed to be cycling or walking. In this last scenario, gradual reductions in travel costs of their usual motorized travel mode were presented until they gave up cycling or walking. Those decided to keep on walking or cycling in this scenario are assumed to have a strong willingness to change, in contrast with those who decided to come back to their usual motorized travel mode. The degree of willingness to change estimated using this methodology would reduce uncertainty about the difference between stated willingness to change and real shifts from car or ransit to non-motorized transportation modes.Results from a statistical analysis carried out using Heckman’s sample selection model allow us to identify demographic, socioeconomic and travel-related factors that influence the degree of willingness to change. Differences and similarities between the propensity to walk and cycle and between individuals with strong and weak willingness to change are underlined. Findings suggest that work/school related journeys are less associated to walking than non-commuting journeys, but they are more related to cycling. Results provided by the analysis of the degree of willingness reveal that car users present a stronger willingness to change to walking or cycling compared to transit users. In addition, older respondents show a stronger willingness to switch to walking or cycling than younger respondents.
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila; Ruiz, Tomás
  Authors: Ferrer, Sheila; Ruiz, Tomás
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4088
• Design Matters: Early Results from Field Experiment of Fuel Economy Feedback
  Abstract: Energy feedback to drivers is one method to engage drivers in energy saving driving styles. In contrast to the occasional broadcasting of general driving tips, in-vehicle energy feedback gives drivers access to accurate information about their specific driving situation on an ongoing basis. The increasing prevalence of such feedback in new vehicles suggests a belief that ongoing, in-vehicle feedback is better. However, there is little reliable evidence of the effectiveness of energy feedback in real-word driving in passenger vehicles. This study begins to fill this gap. Participants are given a commercially-available fuel consumption display and recording device to use in their personal vehicle for two months. For the first month the display is blank as the device records a baseline of driving and fuel consumption. For the second month the display is switched on to show drivers one of three feedback designs. This paper presents preliminary results (N=36) of a larger study that will include 150 drivers along the California-Nevada Interstate-80 corridor. Using a mixed-effects linear model, we find an average decrease of between 2% and 8% in fuel consumption (gallons/100 miles) between the without- and with-feedback months, depending on the feedback designs. Categorizing trips into types based on distance and multiple speed characteristics, there are differences in the apparent effectiveness of feedback across trip types. Most trips average approximately 5% reduction in fuel consumption. The long distance highway trip type showed only a 1% decrease in fuel consumption between the two study periods.
  Authors: Stillwater, Tai; Kurani, Kenneth S.
  Authors: Stillwater, Tai; Kurani, Kenneth S.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 833
  Paper Number: 13-4112
• Estimating Nested Logit Models with Censored Data
  Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a methodology for estimating parameters of a nested logit model when decision makers who choose one of the alternatives are systematically excluded from the sample data that is used to estimate the model (i.e., censored). Unlike existing methods for estimating discrete choice model parameters with censored data, which require exogenous information beyond the specification of the model to be estimated and the available sampled observations, the proposed method requires no additional outside information. We demonstrate empirically that this approach is able to recover not only generic model parameters that apply to common attributes of all alternatives, but also parameters for alternative specific constants and variables associated with both observed and censored alternatives. While the standard errors of the estimated parameters are larger than those of models estimated with uncensored data, censored data methods still hold great potential for applications where uncensored data is expensive or impossible to collect.
  Authors: Newman, Jeffrey; Ferguson, Mark; Garrow, Laurie A.
  Authors: Newman, Jeffrey; Ferguson, Mark; Garrow, Laurie A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 391
  Paper Number: 13-3340
• Real-Time Bus Arrival Time Prediction: Application to Case of Chinese Cities
  Abstract: This paper presents two models for the real-time bus arrival time prediction. For the concern of unique transit operation characteristics in the Chinese cities, a set of candidate variables are selected to represent the impacts of traffic congestion and intersection delay in the network. The proposed base model uses the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the bus arrival time according to the historical GPS data. To contend with the difficulty of capturing traffic fluctuations over different day of week, this study further subdivides the prediction problem into a bunch of clusters, based on the historical bus travel time data from the city of Jinan, China. Sub ANN (SANN) models are then developed for each cluster and further integrated into the Hierarchical ANN (HANN) model. Using the GPS dataset from Jinan, six different scenarios, in response to different time of day, day of week, and the length of bus route, are selected to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed models. Compared with the Kalman Filter model, the results reveal that both proposed ANN models can produce a concurrent accurate prediction for bus arrival time. Particularly, the HANN model can obviously outperform other models in most tested scenarios.
  Authors: Lin, Yongjie; Yang, Xianfeng; Zou, Nan; Jia, Lei
  Authors: Lin, Yongjie; Yang, Xianfeng; Zou, Nan; Jia, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-3355
• Pedestrian Environment and Route Choice: Evidence from New York City and Hong Kong
  Abstract: This research uses mixed methods of environment audit, contingent rating, and pedestrian route choice modeling to understand the environment-walking relationship and to quantify the utility of pedestrian environments in monetary values. Based on revealed preferences from 321 pedestrians interviewed in an urban center neighborhood in New York City and Hong Kong, we found that the subtle differences in the pedestrian environment result in quite different walking patterns and perceptions of the neighborhoods. Safety concerns and the lack of route alternatives render the Hong Kong pedestrians less familiar with the local environment even they visit the site more frequently, comparing to those in New York City. We also found that pedestrians are often unable to articulate the intangible amenities such as streetscape and façade design, and over-evaluate the importance of more tangible attributes like distance and safety. Finally, the route choice model produces a set of values for six key environmental attributes. For example, one extra meter sidewalk is valued as equivalence of 115.7 meters in New York City, or New Yorkers are willing to walk 115.7 meters longer if the sidewalk is widened by one meter. This value is about twice that in Hong Kong.
  Authors: Guo, Zhan; Loo, Becky P.Y.
  Authors: Guo, Zhan; Loo, Becky P.Y.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-3356
• Location Quotient Assessment of Age and Income Trends in Four Metropolitan Regions Between 2000 and 2010
  Abstract: American cities are becoming more desirable places to live. Census data show that over the past decade central cities have experienced an increase in the concentration of younger and more affluent populations living within 3 miles of the central business district. Yet, the same data show an increasing concentration of older, less affluent populations in the suburbs. Concentrations of seniors and lower income earners decreased drastically near CBDs between 2000 and 2010. Smart growth policies have had the positive impact of turning the central city into a desirable place, but new urban dilemmas have emerged. Growing concentration of seniors and low income earners in the suburbs poses significant policy implications for urban planners. This research highlights the extent of gentrification occurring in four major metropolitan areas and highlights the need for increased attention to the land use and transportation issues brought on by this new demographic shift.
  Authors: Peterson, Collin Ross; Nelson, Arthur C.
  Authors: Peterson, Collin Ross; Nelson, Arthur C.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3402
• Demographic Microsimulation Model for Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Model System
  Abstract: The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model that dynamically evolves the urban spatial form, economic structure, demographics and travel behavior over time for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA). This paper presents the ILUTE Demographic Updating Module (I-DUM), which updates the residential population demographics throughout the simulation. Given a synthetic base population, I-DUM updates the attributes of the agents at each time step. New agents are introduced through birth and in-migration, while agents exit through death and out-migration events. Unions between agents are formed through a marriage market, while a divorce model dissolves existing ones. Transitions to new households are also triggered by a move-out model. In addition to its comprehensive scope, I-DUM is a closed demographic model where social networks are built and maintained throughout the simulation. Maintaining social connections brings some advantages for modeling travel behavior and location choice. I-DUM is being tested against a twenty-year (1986-2006) period using a 100% synthetic GTHA population (4.1 million persons, 1.1 million families, 1.4 million households). The results are compared against historical observations across multiple dimensions. In general, I-DUM exhibits a strong performance, and the authors have confidence that it can maintain the validity of inputs to the other behavioral models in ILUTE. I-DUM's implementation has also been parallelized which brings significant performance improvements. Starting with over 6.5 million agents (which grows past 10 million), the simulation takes just under 10 minutes to complete a twenty-year run.
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco; Miller, Eric J.
  Authors: Chingcuanco, Franco; Miller, Eric J.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-3445
• Does Residential Dissonance Impact Residential Mobility?
  Abstract: This research identifies residential mobility behaviour impacts of residential dissonance in Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) vs. non-TODs in Brisbane, Australia. Based on the characteristics of living environments (density, diversity, connectivity, and accessibility) and the travel preferences of 4545 individuals, respondents in 2009 were classified into one of four categories including: TOD consonants, TOD dissonants, non-TOD dissonants, and non-TOD consonants. Binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify residential mobility behaviour of groups between 2009 and 2011; controlling for time varying covariates. The findings show that both TOD dissonants and TOD consonants move residences at an equal rate. However, TOD dissonants are more likely to move residences to their preferred non-TOD areas. In contrast, non-TOD dissonants not only moved residences at a lower rate, but their rate of mobility to their preferred TOD neighbourhood is also significantly lower due to costs and other associated factors. The findings suggest that discrete land use policy development is required to integrate non-TOD dissonant and TOD dissonant behaviours to support TOD development in Brisbane.
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md; Washington, Simon; Baker, Douglas; Turrell, Gavin
  Authors: Kamruzzaman, Md; Washington, Simon; Baker, Douglas; Turrell, Gavin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-3452
• Analysis of Pedestrian Self-Organization at Dutch Music Festival
  Abstract: Major pedestrian crowd movements have proven to be volatile in the past. However, even though pedestrian crowd events are frequently organized, not a lot is known quantitatively about pedestrian crowd movements. For instance, several self-organizing movement have been described, but a quantitative link between self-organizing movements of crowds and the characteristic flow parameters is still lacking. This paper tries to fill part of this knowledge gap by analyzing trajectory data captured at a Dutch music festival using an UAV, and connecting the found macroscopic characteristic flow parameters to one of the types of self-organization, namely lane formation. This paper concludes that the width of self-organized lanes is determined via the by pedestrians experienced density. Based on the relations found a crowd movement transition theory is proposed. The proposed theory states that when density increases, the walking velocity decreases, the width of the lanes increases and the number of lanes decreases.
  Authors: Duives, Dorine C.; Daamen, Winnie; Hoogendoorn, Serge
  Authors: Duives, Dorine C.; Daamen, Winnie; Hoogendoorn, Serge
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-3456
• Disaggregate Vehicle Ownership Behavior Model of Indian Households
  Abstract: Developing disaggregate vehicle ownership models for a developing country is a challenging process due to lack of reliable data. Household income data, which is predominantly used across the developed countries to represent economic standard, may not be reliable in developing countries due to several reasons. In this paper, a disaggregate vehicle ownership model is developed for India by using per capita regular expenditure as a proxy for economic standard. The paper evaluates the effect of various socio-economic factors on the private vehicle ownership behaviour of Indian households. It is found that economic standard and household size are the two most important determinants of private vehicle ownership behaviour in India. The paper also illustrates that for developing countries, where income data may not be reliable, regular expenditure data could be used as a proxy for economic standard for various studies.
  Authors: Dash, Sarojeet; Vasudevan, Vinod; Singh, Sanjay Kumar
  Authors: Dash, Sarojeet; Vasudevan, Vinod; Singh, Sanjay Kumar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 692
  Paper Number: 13-3474
• Route Choice Dynamics After a Link Restoration
  Abstract: Carrion and Levinson (2012a) studied the bridge choice behavior of commuters before and after a new bridge opened to the public. This bridge replaced the previously collapsed I-35W bridge in the metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul. The original I-35W bridge collapsed on August 1st 2007, and the replacement bridge opened to the public on September 18th 2008. They collected Global Positioning System (GPS) data of travelers between the last weeks of August 2008, and the first weeks of December 2008. This data allowed to observe the traffic patterns of the travelers on the road network, and identify the possible reasons influencing the travelers' preferences towards the new I-35W bridge vs. other bridge alternatives. For this purpose, they formulated a static model based on statistical measures (e.g. mean, standard deviation) on day-to-day travel time distributions obtained by aggregating travel times of different days for the I-35W bridge, and for all the other alternatives. This study extends Carrion and Levinson (2012a) by considering explicitly the day-to-day behavior of travelers, and by also considering the previously excluded subjects that are transitioning between bridge alternatives not including the I-35W bridge. This is accomplished by specifying and estimating a duration model (i.e. a hazard model) on data of the subjects' morning commute. The primary results indicate that the subjects react to day-to-day travel times on a specific route according to thresholds. These thresholds help discriminate whether a travel time is within an acceptable margin or not, and travelers may decide to abandon the chosen route depending on the frequency of travel times within acceptable margins. The secondary results indicate that subjects previous experience, and perception of the alternatives also influence their decision to abandon the chosen route.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Authors: Carrion, Carlos; Levinson, David M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-3483
• Industrial Space Demand and Freight Transportation Activity: Exploring the Connection
  Abstract: There has been continuing interest among transportation planners, economic development specialists and private industry about the relationship between the demand for industrial space and the level of freight transportation activity. With the growing importance of logistics and supply chain economics to many industrial and business activities, the organization of industrial activity and optimal location of warehousing and operational centers must increasingly consider the availability, quality and cost of a range of transportation services, particularly in connection with essential intermodal activities. Accordingly, development of major logistics parks in conjunction with major intermodal hubs has become an important element in the overall industrial economy, predicated on the notion that robust freight activity is a good indicator of demand for industrial space. In this study, using regression techniques, we examine the relationship between freight transportation activity and industrial space demand at the metropolitan area level. The results confirm this relationship, reflecting significant statistical association between higher levels of freight traffic and higher levels of industrial space demand. This relationship is more pronounced in inland versus port markets. In addition, the data reveals that there was a shock to the demand for industrial space in the year 2001, thereby altering the structural relationship between demand and the drivers of demand.
  Authors: Lindsey, Christopher; Mahmassani, Hani S.; Mullarkey, Matt; Nash, Terry; Rothberg, Steven
  Authors: Lindsey, Christopher; Mahmassani, Hani S.; Mullarkey, Matt; Nash, Terry; Rothberg, Steven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3493
• Skateboarding as a Mode of Transportation: Review of Regulations in California Cities and College Campuses
  Abstract: Skateboarding, most commonly thought of as a recreational activity, can also be used as an active travel mode. Recreational skateboarding also often occurs on transportation facilities. Thus, skateboarding is a phenomenon of interest to transportation planners and decision makers and a target for policy actions. A review of California cities and college campuses show that regulations on skateboard travel and riding on transportation facilities are common. Regulations most frequently prohibit skateboarding in certain areas, but are also often written to restrict certain behaviors on a skateboard. While the presence of any regulation is common, the specifics of the regulations vary, resulting in inconsistent and sometimes contradictory regulations from city to city. Justifications for regulations, although not always stated, include concerns over user safety, safety of nearby pedestrians, damage to property, behavior, interference to nearby business, and creation of a nuisance. Current regulations may be an impediment to the use of skateboards for active travel, especially when they target recreational skateboarding, but are written such that they affect all skateboarders. To encourage skateboarding as a mode of active travel, further evaluation of the actual characteristics and behavior of skateboarders may be necessary to create appropriate regulations that address legitimate issues without hindering innocuous use.
  Authors: Fang, Kevin
  Authors: Fang, Kevin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-3500
• Extending Relative Utility Model with Multiple Reference Points to Incorporate Asymmetric, Nonlinear Response Curvature
  Abstract: This study integrates the concepts of relative utility and prospect to represent the context dependence in travel choice behavior by incorporating asymmetric and non-linear responses. Relative utility argues that utility is only meaningful relative to some reference point(s) and it conceptually allows the existence of multiple reference points in a systematic way. Prospect theory argues that people's decisions tend to be more sensitive to losses than to gains, where gains and losses are defined with respect to a reference point, but it has not been concerned about how to specify the reference point(s). On the other hand, even though the concept of relative utility could accommodate nonlinear utility structures, no study has been done to capture the non-linearity caused by peoplefs asymmetric responses to gains and losses. Theoretically, the integrated model can be used to express various types of context dependencies. The effectiveness of the integrated model is confirmed using a stated preference data with 1,872 samples on the joint choice of departure time and driving route under the provision of dynamic travel information, collected in Beijing of China in May 2008. Sensitivity of the model performance to different values of prospect parameters is also analyzed. Influential factors to the choice behavior are also explored.
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi; Yu, Biying; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Authors: Zhang, Junyi; Yu, Biying; Timmermans, Harry J.P.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 447
  Paper Number: 13-3508
• Bikes for Urban Freight? Experience for European Case
  Abstract: In light of the necessity of finding new ways of reducing motorized road traffic, above all in city centers, in Europe focus is switching more and more to cycle freight. At the present time there is very little research work and systematically prepared findings on this area. Against this backdrop, this article demonstrates that the use of cycle freight is already widespread, although this is restricted to larger cities. The cause of this is the necessary density with respect to demand. Existing firms mostly operate as pure cycle freight operators. A parallel operation in fleets with motor vehicles has, however, been tried out successfully on several occasions.The availability of city center hubs, to ensure the necessary efficiency, is one of the special requirements associated with the use of cargo cycles. Until now, clear reservations can still be found amongst customers, although it may be assumed that this is more a case of initial resistance, which could be overcome through information and advertising campaigns. In total it is expected that around a quarter of city center freight transport can be carried out by cycle. This will only work, however, if this mode of delivery is given greater consideration in city and transport planning. Initial estimates lead one to expect that the contribution to the reduction of air and noise pollution of cycle based commercial traffic could be quite significant, although systematic analysis is also lacking here. To date there have been no studies on the effects of cycle freight on city center traffic.
  Authors: Lenz, Barbara
  Authors: Lenz, Barbara
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-3510
• Nested Tourist Time Use and Expenditure Behavior Model with Multidestination Visit Based on Pair Copula
  Abstract: Focusing on tourist behavior, this paper develops a nested time use and expenditure behavior model in the context of multi-destination visit, where a tourist visits one or more destinations. In this case, tourists' decisions include, 1) whether to visit a destination or not (destination visit decision), and in case of visiting a destination, 2) how long to stay there (activity time decision), 3) whether to spend any money there (expenditure decision), and in case of spending any money, 4) how much of money to spend there (expenditure level decision). To accommodate the above decision-making mechanism with two discrete and two continuous dependent variables, a nested Tobit modeling technique is first integrated with a multi-linear utility-maximizing time use and expenditure behavior model, and then a pair copula is applied to represent the correlated error structure of the above four dependent variables. Pair copula is a function that can combine different bivariate copulas to represent a joint multivariate distribution, where variables are sequentially incorporated into conditioning sets with a nested tree structure. As a case study, the developed model is estimated by comparing three types of canonical vine copulas: Gaussian, FGM and Frank copulas. First, the model effectiveness is confirmed by using a questionnaire data collected in the Tottori Prefecture of Japan in 2007. Second, it is revealed that the Frank canonical vine pair copula model is superior to other models. Third, it is found that the value of activity time varies considerably with touristsf origins. Finally, influential factors to time use and expenditure behavior are examined.
  Authors: Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3513
• Route Choice Modelling for Urban Commuters: Considering Bridge Choice as a Key Determinant of Selected Routes
  Abstract: Trip assignment is still a modelling and prediction challenge. For aggregate analyses, traditional trip assignment approaches may suffice. However, investigations of drivers’ choices with respect to network infrastructure changes require more disaggregate and behavioural approach. Effects of critical infrastructure elements in the network on route choice behaviour of the drivers are often crucial to investigate. The case of Montreal is of particular interest since the city, an Island, is completely separated from the rest of the region by two important rivers. Consequently, drivers have to select one of the available bridges to reach their destination. The research relies on a set of observed trips with bridge declaration from a large-scale travel survey conducted in 2008. It is a one-day trip diary reaching some 4% of the residing population and including the bridge chosen in the itinerary for car driver trips. The paper provides a descriptive analysis of the bridges and their usage. An advanced discrete choice model that jointly models choice set formation and final choice is then formulated and estimated using the observed trips. Empirical model correctly identifies effects of travel time interacting with time of day and destination trip purpose. Travellers are more sensitive to travel time during off-peak period. Empirical results show that age, gender and household auto ownership explain the variation of scale parameters of route/bridge choice; for instance, older people show more stable route/bridge choice behaviour than younger ones. Discussion on the performance of the model is provided along with further result analysis and perspectives for further work.
  Authors: Nurul Habib, Khandker M.; Morency, Catherine; Trepanier, Martin; Salem, Sarah
  Authors: Nurul Habib, Khandker M.; Morency, Catherine; Trepanier, Martin; Salem, Sarah
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3534
• Assessing the Environmental Capacity of Local Residential Streets
  Abstract: The inherent conflict between the residential amenity and traffic access functions of local streets causes debate on what constitutes a true “local” road. The concept of ‘environmental capacity’ was developed to identify a suitable maximum traffic volume on such local streets. In separate research in the 1960s – 1970s, both Buchanan and Appleyard settled on broad-brush traffic thresholds of 2,000-3,000 vehicles per day. Since then, other research has relied heavily on these original findings; this paper investigates that presumption in the present day.A residents’ survey was applied to four conventional “local” streets with varying traffic volumes in Christchurch, New Zealand. Residents living on those streets with higher volumes felt that their streets were busier, noisier and less safe. There was also an increasing trend for residents along higher volume streets to have their houses turned away from the street and they tended to have less personal involvement and/or knowledge of their neighbors. A more appropriate environmental capacity appeared to be around 1,500-2,000 vehicles/day.A subsequent study looked at further Christchurch streets, this time with street treatments, such as street calming and tree plantings, aiming to see whether the street treatments affected the perceived environmental capacity. As well as reinforcing most of the previous conclusions, a higher environmental capacity of around 2,000 vehicles/day was found for the surveyed streets. This suggests that appropriate street treatments can increase the environmental capacity, which has implications for local councils who want to maintain road traffic carrying capabilities without having unsatisfied residents.
  Authors: Koorey, Glen F; Leckie, Andrew; Chesterman, Rhys
  Authors: Koorey, Glen F; Leckie, Andrew; Chesterman, Rhys
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 682
  Paper Number: 13-3546
• How Captive Is the Captive Market Anyway? Reexamination of the Impact of Auto Availability
  Abstract: The concept of the “captive market” for transit has been prevalent in transportation planning agencies for decades. Indeed, many transit agencies focus considerable effort on distinguishing between their “choice” and “captive” markets. This paper does not intend to undermine the theory that a segment of the market, predominantly lower-income riders, is more constrained in their travel choices. However, the paper does argue that the concept of the “captive market” can be applied in an overly deterministic way when members of 0 auto households are essentially locked out of certain travel modes such as auto driver (and/or single occupancy vehicle mode) and drive to transit (park-and-ride). Data from two recent household trip diaries (2008 and 2011) conducted in metropolitan Vancouver are examined to determine whether such rule-based approaches are appropriate for 0-car households, particularly in light of the rise of auto-sharing companies in Vancouver and surrounding cities. The paper will provide an analysis of two different travel patterns of particular relevance for individuals that fall broadly into the captive market category: the car-availability for travelers not using auto modes will be examined in addition to the mode choice of travelers from 0-car households. A detailed examination will be made of those respondents from 0-car household who also indicated that they were a car driver.
  Authors: Petersen, Eric
  Authors: Petersen, Eric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3550
• Comparing Estimation Results of Land Use Development Models UsingDifferent Databases Available in Switzerland
  Abstract: Land development models are often the weakest part of land use transport interaction models. This is partly because decisions on implementing real estate development projects are seldom recorded. In this context, the term project means a prepared plan for creating new space in the form of one or more buildings. Since we are interested in explaining the development of built space using discrete choice modeling, knowing about the decisions on projects would be ideal. However, registers are more likely to have information on existing buildings rather than data on project decisions. If the register contains the year of construction, this can be used as proof of a development decision. Unfortunately, registers do not include information on how many buildings were constructed in the same project.This paper discusses the issue of missing information on projects using parcel-based development location choice models. These models are being used in the implementation of an UrbanSim land use transport model for the Canton of Zurich in Switzerland. The purpose of the development location choice models is to locate development events generated by a transition model to update alternative locations for household and firm location choice models. To discover the effect, if any, of missing information about projects, we compare the parameters estimated on two different databases for each of four development location choice models. One database contains construction projects with multiple buildings, while the other contains only single buildings.Our conclusion is that using building registers is a viable option if no data on development projects is at hand, especially, if there are few projects with multi buildings in the considered area. However, register data often does not contain information on projects, which can lead to biased parameters because the size of the considered development events is too small.
  Authors: Zöllig Renner, Christof; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Authors: Zöllig Renner, Christof; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 734
  Paper Number: 13-3552
• Value-of-Time Multipliers: Review and Meta-analysis of European-wide Evidence
  Abstract: This paper is different in that it provides a review of time multipliers in contrast to the much more common reviews of monetary values. There are a number of attractions of analysing what are essentially within-study valuations of the time related attributes expressed in equivalent units of in-vehicle time rather than deducing the multipliers from analysis of more disparate monetary valuations. We here provide the most comprehensive review of time multiplier evidence yet conducted, covering 12 attributes on a European wide scale. We have assembled 1389 multipliers drawn from 244 studies and covering 18 European countries and have estimated a model to explain variations in these multipliers as a function of a large number of candidate explanatory variables. The multipliers considered are walk and wait time, access to public transport and waiting at interchange locations, time spent searching for a parking space and in congested traffic conditions, departure time shift, headway, schedule delay early and late, the standard deviation of travel time and late time. The main influences on the time multipliers are journey distance, mode and journey purpose. Whilst we observe quite appreciable but plausible variations in some multipliers across contexts, the variation is less than is observed in reviews of monetary valuations. The results seem to be transferable across Europe and will provide a valuable resource, not least in allowing money values of a range of attributes to be deduced from the more widely available money values of in-vehicle time.
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Authors: Wardman, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-3554
• Can Transport Models Predict Effects of Congestion Charges? Ex-post Evidence on Forecast Accuracy in Stockholm
  Abstract: This paper compares forecasted effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. We show that the transport model was able to predict the charges’ effects on travel demand reasonably well, but with some underprediction of the effect on leisure trips. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were traffic reduction in bottlenecks, increase in public transport ridership, decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and traffic effects on circumferential roads. All of these factors were predicted well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment model was unable to predict the substantial effects on travel times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than (unaided) “experts’ judgment”, but that results must be interpreted taking the model’s various limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecasted to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; van Amelsfort, Dirk Hendrik; Brundell-Freij, Karin; Engelson, Leonid
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; van Amelsfort, Dirk Hendrik; Brundell-Freij, Karin; Engelson, Leonid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3608
• Transit Bottleneck Model and Its Application to a Transit Line in Paris
  Abstract: The paper addresses the issue of passenger waiting and being stored at a station platform, from which point they plan to board transit services towards egress stations. Each transit service has a specific set of downstream egress stations and is operated at given frequency using homogeneous vehicles of limited available capacity. The model yields individual waiting time by egress station and the assignment of vehicle capacity to the flows by egress station.Two cases are distinguished, unsaturated versus saturated. The unsaturated case is addressed by standard line combination, where service frequency is added up among the routes that service a given egress station. The saturated case is addressed by making explicit the average number of passengers waiting on platform for a given egress station. From these passenger stocks is derived the individual probability to board a vehicle of limited capacity that service a given route hence a given subset of egress stations. Waiting passengers are assumed to be mingling on the origin platform. The subset of routes that service a given egress station, their vehicle capacities and the boarding probabilities induce a line capacity for that destination: to this is faced the passenger flow demanded during the assignment period, in a bottleneck model that yields an average waiting time per passenger.The vector of passenger stocks by egress station is shown to satisfy a fixed point problem. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are demonstrated on the basis of an equivalent, convex minimization program.
  Authors: Leurent, Fabien M.; Chandakas, Ektoras
  Authors: Leurent, Fabien M.; Chandakas, Ektoras
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-3623
• Benefits of Cycling: Viewing Cyclists as Travelers Rather Than Nonmotorists
  Abstract: In the last decade, cycling has increased rapidly in the central parts of Stockholm. At the same time, the decreasing trend in cycling seems to continue in the outer parts of the region. This paper explores the factors behind these trends. In the central parts, increased road congestion, transit crowding and improved cycle infrastructure have lowered the generalized cost of cycling relative to other transport modes; spillover effects seem to generate a positive spiral; and increased interest in physical fitness and changes in the relative prices of cars versus central residences are beginning to turn the bicycle into a high-status mode of transport. In the peripheral parts, on the other hand, increasing travel distances and sparser land use patterns combine to decrease cycling levels. The paper also finds that additional benefits of cycling investments often are small and base a discussion of cycling policy on this, arguing that the many advantages of the bicycle – speed, space-efficiency, low investment and travel costs, no external costs, health effects – means that it deserves more attention from spatial and transport planners. To achieve this, cycle promoters need to focus on the bicycle as a highly efficient means of transport, and not reduce it to a second-best remedy to obesity or climate issues.
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena
  Authors: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria Magdalena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; Policy
  Session: 556
  Paper Number: 13-3628
• A Multi-Model ApproachtTo Large-Scale Multiagent Transport Simulation
  Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a multi-model approach to a large-scale, activity-based, multi-agent travel demand simulation.The Multi-Agent Transport Simulation toolkit, MATSim, is a full activity-based travel demand model, capable of handling very large urban scenarios in the order of millions of commuters. Its greatest current performance limitation is the network loading simulation, currently a queue simulation (`QSim'). In our application, the multi-model system periodically replaces the current QSim for a number of iterations with a simplified pseudo-simulation (`PSim') that runs approximately two orders of magnitude faster. PSim uses information generated in the preceding QSim iteration to produce an estimate of how well an agent day plan might perform, which allows the existing model framework to select and improve plans before executing them in a full queue simulation. We test the technique in an extensive scenario for Zurich, Switzerland, incorporating mode choice, road-pricing, secondary activity location choice, activity timing adjustment and dynamic routing. We find that the technique dramatically improves convergence rates for such complex, large-scale simulations, and fully exploits modern multi-core computer architectures. Its simple operational logic promises easy integration with all existing and upcoming MATSim functionality, and opens the door to more sophisticated approaches to large-scale, integrated transportation planning.
  Authors: Fourie, Pieter J.; Illenberger, Johannes; Nagel, Kai
  Authors: Fourie, Pieter J.; Illenberger, Johannes; Nagel, Kai
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3631
• Reliable Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting for Urban Roads Using Multivariate GARCH Model
  Abstract: Short-term traffic flow forecasting plays an essential role to the advanced traveler information systems, route guidance systems, and proactive traffic signal control systems. Therefore, numerous univariate and multivariate models have been presented on either traffic flow level forecasting or traffic flow variance forecasting. However, few studies have incorporated the relationship between different traffic parameters (such as volume and speed) into the traffic flow forecasting model development. Based on the well-known facts that there are some inherent relationships between traffic parameters and that there exists the heteroscedasticity in traffic flow series, a vector autoregressive (VAR) plus multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) method was proposed in this paper for reliable short-term traffic flow forecasting for urban roads, in which the VAR model was used as the mean equation of the MGARCH model for modeling the traffic flow levels and the MGARCH model was used to model the conditional traffic flow variances. The proposed method was validated and evaluated using the actual traffic volume and speed data. Evaluation results showed that the proposed method can generate worktable performance in terms of forecasting accuracy and the forecasted confidence intervals.
  Authors: Xia, Jingxin; Nie, Qinghui; Huang, Wei; Qian, Zhendong
  Authors: Xia, Jingxin; Nie, Qinghui; Huang, Wei; Qian, Zhendong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-3634
• Robust Method for Real-Time Estimation of Travel Times for Dense Urban Road Networks Using Point-to-Point Detectors
  Abstract: The collection and provision of real time information to passengers is a key issue on current cities for both, traffic managers and travelers. This paper presents a novel methodology for estimating travel times in dense urban road networks using point-to-point detectors. The aim is to fill in the existing gap related to the weakness of existing travel time estimation methodologies, which take into account point-to-point detector devices. Bluetooth is considered as one of the less expensive technologies for estimating travel times, but while on the one hand travel times data collection can be considered as easy, data filtering and data correction require a demanding methodology, which if not correctly applied may result in inaccurate results as compared to other methods. The main difficulty of data processing is to identify the correct set of MAC addresses for estimating the travel times, especially in dense urban zones, where three main error sources exist: the existence of different modes (private vehicles, pedestrians, buses, bicycle etc.), the existence of more than one possible path between two bluetooth detector devices and the existence of stops or trips ending between two bluetooth devices, creating outliers that need to be identified and discarded. The results of the methodology confirm that outliers are eliminated, as shown by a case study involving 10 Bluetooth detectors, installed at major intersections of Thessaloniki’s central business district. The presented methodology is useful for application related to real-time data provision to advanced traveler information services as well as to underlying traffic models.
  Authors: Mitsakis, Evangelos; Salanova Grau, Josep-Maria; Chrisohoou, Evangelia Ch.; Aifadopoulou, Georgia
  Authors: Mitsakis, Evangelos; Salanova Grau, Josep-Maria; Chrisohoou, Evangelia Ch.; Aifadopoulou, Georgia
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 486
  Paper Number: 13-3654
• Relationship of Motorcycle Choice and Bus Choice in Commuting: Case Study of Zhongshan, China
  Abstract: Motorcycling is one of the primary commuting modes in many Asian cities. Despite efforts to shift motorcyclists to buses, many commuters continue to choose motorcycles. This paper uses survey results from 13,248 randomly selected commuters of a within-day travel survey to investigate motorcycle and bus commute mode choices in Zhongshan, China. Using an exploratory Binary Probit (BP) model specification as a starting point, we simultaneously model motorcycle and bus choice using a Bivariate Probit model (BVP). Compared to the individual binary models, the BVP demonstrates higher explanatory power for bus choice with a minor decrease for motorcycle choice. There are three major findings. First, middle-income respondents (?1200 to ?2000 monthly) are more likely than lower-income respondents to choose motorcycles while higher-income respondents (above ?5,000 monthly) are less likely to choose motorcycles. Bus choice probability steadily decreases with increasing income. This suggests that if bus services are not improved, middle-income motorcyclists may shift to less sustainable modes such as driving. Second, average commuting distance is higher for bus choosers (11.6 km) than for motorcycle choosers (6.0 km), implying motorcycles and buses might be complementary for different commuting distances. Third, car owners are less likely to commute by motorcycle than those not owning cars. Motorcycle owners are less likely to commute by bus than those not owning motorcycles. This suggests that it may be difficult to induce motorcycle owners and private car owners to take a bus unless public transit is made more desirable.
  Authors: Yun, Meiping; Liu, Jiangyong; Deng, Wen
  Authors: Yun, Meiping; Liu, Jiangyong; Deng, Wen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-3659
• Estimating Dynamic Workplace Capacities Using Public Transport Smart Card Data, Travel Diary Survey, and Land Use Information
  Abstract: The number and spatial distribution of work locations is a crucial piece of information for any transport demand model. To generate the initial transport demand of MATSim, an activity-based multi-agent simulation framework, it is necessary to determine the number of work locations with high spatial resolution, either on a parcel or even a building level. Commonly applied methods to derive work locations are based on census of entreprises information, unemployment insurance database or combine information of buildings gross floor area and individual work space requirements. As an alternative, we present a methodology which combines public transport smart card transaction data, travel diary survey and building information data sources.Work activities are detected from public transport smart card transactions based on observed activity duration and start time and hence related to public transport stops. To link the observed work activities to individual buildings, a linear programming optimisation technique is applied that minimises the walking time between public transport stops and potential work locations. Information on maximum allowed building gross floor area derived from land use regulation is combined with estimates on individual work space requirements to set boundary conditions and ensure that buildings are only assigned with work activities according to its maximal capacity. To account for private transport based work activities, mode shares as observed in a travel diary are taken into account. Due to the limited number of observations of such surveys, this inflation process is performed on the level of specifically generated mode share zones. To demonstrate the applicability, the proposed approach is implemented for the case of Singapore and the results of this case study critically reviewed.
  Authors: Ordóñez Medina, Sergio; Erath, Alexander
  Authors: Ordóñez Medina, Sergio; Erath, Alexander
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 486
  Paper Number: 13-3683
• AIS Data-based Vessel Speed, Course and Path Analysis in the Botlek Area in the Port of Rotterdam, the Netherlands
  Abstract: Due to the fast development of vessel traffic in ports and waterways nowadays, a lot of attention has been paid to maritime traffic safety and port capacity. Many simulation models have been used to predict traffic safety and port capacity in ports and waterways. However, maritime traffic models only consider few aspects, as the influences of human behavior and external factors have not been included regarding maritime traffic safety. To investigate the vessel behavior and external influencing factors, an analysis has been performed based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data under various external conditions.The study area includes a junction and a slight bend with high maritime traffic density within the port of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Vessels are classified in different categories based on their type and gross tonnage. Equidistant cross-sections approximately perpendicular to the navigation direction are used for investigation of vessel behavior, including speed, course and path for each vessel category. The influences of external factors (wind and visibility) on vessel behavior are identified by comparing with unhindered vessel behavior. In the analysis, specific thresholds are set to select external conditions and eliminate the influence of encounters. The analysis of unhindered vessel behavior for each vessel category provides insight into vessel behavior. The results revealed that the wind has influence on vessel path and the visibility affect the vessel speed and path. Analysis results can be used as input for the development of new maritime traffic model, as well as for its verification and validation.
  Authors: Shu, Yaqing; Daamen, Winnie; Ligteringen, Han; Hoogendoorn, Serge
  Authors: Shu, Yaqing; Daamen, Winnie; Ligteringen, Han; Hoogendoorn, Serge
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 345
  Paper Number: 13-3742
• Supporting Station Model for Reliable Infrastructure Location Design Under Interdependent Disruptions
  Abstract: This paper proposes a new modeling method that transforms an infrastructure system with interdependent and correlated facility failures into an equivalent one with an explicit supporting structure. This structure consists of a set of supporting stations that are subject to only independent disruptions with identified probabilities, and thus is much easier to characterize and formulate. Such a supporting structure framework is capable of not only providing a mathematical representation of facility failure mechanisms but also physically emulating interdependent infrastructures and their inter-connections in many real-world systems. We examine the properties of this structure and find that it can be used to model a range of heterogeneous and correlated facility failure patterns. A mathematical model built on the supporting structure is created to solve reliable facility location design problems under correlated facility failure risks. This model determines the optimal locations for supporting stations and service facilities to minimize the total system cost including infrastructure investment in the early planning stage and the expected transportation costs and service-loss penalties during the operational stage. This model is formulated into a compact integer linear program and can be efficiently solved by state-of-the-art solvers. A set of experiments and case studies are conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and to draw managerial insights into the optimal system design.
  Authors: Li, Xiaopeng; Ouyang, Yanfeng; Peng, Fan
  Authors: Li, Xiaopeng; Ouyang, Yanfeng; Peng, Fan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-3747
• Within-Individual Variation in Preferences: Equity Effects of Congestion Charges
  Abstract: It is widely recognized that congestion pricing could be an effective measure to solve congestion problems in urban areas. Still, congestion pricing has been implemented in few places possibly because of the notion that it has negative equity effects. But, earlier studies on equity effects of road pricing have disregarded the possibility that preferences might vary between different trips for the same individual. The purpose of this research is to study how the value of time and preferences for different modes varies within individuals as compared to the variation between individuals. Using a a six weeks period revelead preference panel data and the stated preference for a mode choice context, both collected in Switzerland, a mixed revealed/stated preference logit mode choice model was estimated and used to simulate how the value of travel time savings (VTTS) varies across trips within and between individuals over the six weeks period. We found that the variation in VTTS dependent on income is smaller than the variation within individuals, and the variation in loss per trip due to a simple and hypothetical congestion charging scheme (before recycling of the money) is about twice as high if not taking into account of the intra-individual variation of VTTS. However, the fact that some individuals make more trips than others seems to have a larger effect on the redistribution of losses. To quantify the role of intra-individual variation VTTS is important and might brush aside or reaffirm the conception that congestion charges have negative equity effects.
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Bierlaire, Michel
  Authors: Börjesson, Maria Magdalena; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Bierlaire, Michel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3749
• Hierarchical Agent-Based Simulation for Modeling Traveler Behavior
  Abstract: Understanding traveler behaviors is very important in studying the transportation system. Traveler behaviors can be divided into two parts: before a trip and within a trip. In this paper, the before trip behavior mainly refers to route choice and the within trip behavior includes tactical driving which may include free-flow driving, car following and lane changing. The route choice and the tactical driving behavior may change as time elapses due to the interactions between travelers as well as due to changes in the transportation network topology. This paper proposes a hierarchical agent-based simulation framework with route choice behavior on the upper level and tactical driving behavior on the lower level and includes travelers’ interactions with the transportation network. The route choice model considers learning from previous experiences, heterogeneity of different travelers, incomplete network information, and communications between travelers. The tactical driving model is mainly derived from the NGSIM program. This hierarchical framework is implemented in AnyLogic® software and tested with two simulation experiments. Results from numeric examples show that the proposed agent models reach the same equilibrium solutions as reported in classical models in the literature and how network topology changes can influence the traveler’s decision making. This agent based modeling paradigm opens the possibility to study and understand the complexity travelers’ decision making under a wide variety of scenarios.
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng; Head, Larry
  Authors: Feng, Yiheng; Head, Larry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 733
  Paper Number: 13-4169
• Development Review in District of Columbia: Transitioning from Traditional Traffic Impact Study to Comprehensive Multimodal Transportation Review
  Abstract: As part of the District Department of Transportation’s (DDOT) vision and commitment to more sustainable travel practices, safer streets and access to goods and services, DDOT evaluates the effect of public and private development proposals that come before the District’s Office of Zoning. Previously, this evaluation focused largely on automobile impacts on the District’s roadway network. Given the high percentage non-auto commuting trips, along with an extensive capital and operational investment in the District’s comprehensive transportation infrastructure, DDOT has transitioned to a new multimodal paradigm for evaluating a development’s impacts. To meet multi-modal strategic objectives in the District’s Comprehensive Plan, DDOT has transitioned to a structured model for evaluating transportation impacts and potential mitigation across all travel modes. This model is built upon new comprehensive transportation review guidelines, which replace the traditional traffic impact study and provide a standardized process to a developer, delineating the method of collecting and analyzing data in support of their project in order to be in compliance with DDOT policies. In addition, the new guidelines provide a process for the interpretation of data, allowing DDOT to develop opinions and recommendations to a zoning body on a development’s impacts. Further, a new set of standardized forms and reporting documents ensure consistent and structured interaction among DDOT, developers, and zoning bodies, throughout the zoning process from project inception through permitting.
  Authors: White, Bryon Joshua; Zimbabwe, Sam; Parker, Martin; Henson, James
  Authors: White, Bryon Joshua; Zimbabwe, Sam; Parker, Martin; Henson, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-4172
• Novel Integer Program Formulation for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Problem
  Abstract: We propose a novel integer program formulation for the vehicle-based dynamic traffic assignment problem with vehicles from multiple origins to multiple destinations in a transportation network. The objective function of the proposed formation is to minimize total travel time of all the vehicles in the network, which adheres to the system optimal principle of the dynamic traffic assignment problems. The underlying constraints explicitly describe realistic traffic dynamics, i.e. queue formation, spillback, and dispersion, as well as link spillover, in light of the Newell’s simplified Kinematic Wave traffic flow model. We also define a set of vehicle driving policy constraints that obey driving rules in real world and support capacity analyses by traffic engineers at merging nodes to maintain fairness and the first-in-first-out principle. This novel formulation provides a way to integrate the dynamic assignment and network loading in a single optimization model that can be solved by an optimization solver. It can be extended to integrate the activity-based demand and dynamic traffic assignment model to incorporate a rich set of travel choice behavior, and provide normative traffic information for route guidance applications and advanced traffic management in the Intelligent Transportation Systems.
  Authors: Zhang, Kuilin; Zhou, Xuesong; Lu, Chung-Cheng
  Authors: Zhang, Kuilin; Zhou, Xuesong; Lu, Chung-Cheng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 451
  Paper Number: 13-4180
• Simultaneous Analysis of Global Decisions in Activity-TravelScheduling Process
  Abstract: This paper presents a global characterization of activity-travel scheduling decisions using a new dataset recently collected in Valencia (Spain). As an innovative approach, bivariate probit sample selection models are used to take into account potential self-selectivity bias in the decision process. Model 1 studies decisions to realize or not activity-travel episodes considering if they have been included in the pre-planned agenda. Model 2 analyzes decisions to perform activity-travel episodes as they were planned or to modify one or more of their attributes prior to execution, considering if they have been decided to be realized previously. Random parameters are used in both models to accommodate heterogeneity effects.Location, timing and duration of activity-travel episodes are important explanatory variables in the two scheduling process studied. Few demographic and socioeconomic variables affect the decision processes. Significant correlations between decisions included in both models are found. Policy implications of the analysis results are highlighted.
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo; Ruiz, Tomás
  Authors: Garcia-Garces, Pablo; Ruiz, Tomás
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4194
• Impacts of Parental Gender and Attitudes on Children's School Travel Mode and Parental Escort Behavior
  Abstract: Research has shown that parental attitudes are a significant predictor of children’s active commuting (walking or biking) to school. However, the impact of parental gender on parental attitudes, and the link between parental attitudes and the gender gap in parental escort behavior have not received much attention. This paper examines these questions by applying discrete choice models to California data from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey while controlling for a wide range of variables characterizing parents, their children, households, schools, and the local built environment. Our results show that mothers are more likely to have higher concerns about traffic volume and speed, which in turn reduces the likelihood that their children will walk or bike to school. Moreover, parental attitudes (especially mothers’ attitudes) significantly influence parental escort behavior, although their ability to explain the within-household gender escort gap is limited. However, the escort duties of mothers are reduced when they bike more often, which suggests that more biking by parents encourages children to actively commute to school. Finally, while distance to school and several land use measures (e.g., population density, urbanization level, and percentage of renters) are statistically significant, the impact of an objective measure of walkability is quite small. These results suggest that interventions targeting an increase in children’s walking and biking to school should focus on the concerns of mothers, especially as they relate to traffic characteristics.
  Authors: Hsu, Hsin-Ping; Saphores, Jean-Daniel Maurice
  Authors: Hsu, Hsin-Ping; Saphores, Jean-Daniel Maurice
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation; Society
  Session: 594
  Paper Number: 13-4197
• Adaptive Transit Routing in Stochastic Time-Dependent Networks
  Abstract: An adaptive transit routing (ATR) problem in a stochastic time-dependent transit network is defined and is formulated as a finite horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP). Routing strategies are defined to be conditional on the arrival times at intermediate nodes, and real time information on the location and arrival times of other buses in the network. The objective is to find a strategy that minimizes the expected travel time, subject to constraints that guarantee that the destination is reached within a certain threshold. The problem inherits the curse of dimensionality and state space reduction through pre-processing is achieved by solving variants of the time dependent shortest path problem. An interesting analogy between the state space reduction techniques and the concept of light cones is discussed. A dynamic program framework to solve the problem is developed and numerical results on a small instance of the Austin transit network are presented to investigate the extent of state space reduction using the proposed methods.
  Authors: Rambha, Tarun; Boyles, Stephen; Waller, S. Travis
  Authors: Rambha, Tarun; Boyles, Stephen; Waller, S. Travis
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 393
  Paper Number: 13-4210
• Understanding and Estimating Travelers’ Choices Toward International Multimodal Journey Planning
  Abstract: This paper reports the outcomes of empirical research into international multimodal travel choices, executed within the Enhanced WISETRIP project (EU Funded FP7 Framework Research Program). The project aims at developing new possibilities for planning, booking and travelling multimodal international journeys adapted to user needs, multiple trip criteria, and environmental impact. Crucial for achieving the project’s ambitious goal, is to be able to capture a wide-range of user needs and diverse journeys, for which a so-called a ‘trip strategy’ is defined. A “Techno-Experiential Design Assessment” (TEDA), comprising of user interviews and a stated preference survey, was designed and implemented. The analysis of the TEDA outcomes has resulted in rules and constraints for the trip strategy. The trip strategy modeling considers personalized choice criteria and representative travel situations based on forecasts or user defined possibilities of events. Five group interviews, including trials on user experience with potential scenarios and alternative presentations of travel information, were conducted. After that two online stated preference surveys were carried out for four distance classes for international travelers. The outcomes of the interviews and survey include some interesting findings: (1) majority of travelers indicate the need for a multimodal tip planner; (2) use of real-time information and disruption messaging is doubled when roaming cost is not an issue; (3) travelers are willing to switch to more CO2 friendly route if all other items are comparable; (4) safety, comfort and cost are the most important factors that determine the modal and itinerary choice. These practical results help in a better understanding and are considered critical in achieving an enhanced international multimodal journey planner that should be affordable and encouraging for a wide variety of users.
  Authors: Chen, Yusen; Jonkers, Eline; Vonk Noordegraaf, Diana
  Authors: Chen, Yusen; Jonkers, Eline; Vonk Noordegraaf, Diana
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 819
  Paper Number: 13-4213
• Generation of Inland Waterway Trip Information Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data
  Abstract: This research paper documents the analysis of archived AIS data in the Paducah, KY region to produce reliable inland waterway vessel trip data. There are currently few options when seeking such trip data, owing to confidentiality concerns; this absence impacts the quality of risk calculations. The combination of geographic information systems (GIS), relational databases, custom programming and data visualization tools are applied to extract meaningful vessel traffic information and detect events occurring within ports and waterways. The geographic configuration of the Paducah port area added a degree of difficulty to the generation of trip data. However, this was overcome by categorizing all trips into general river movements and calculating the total number of towboat trips transiting the area in through river movements or engaged in fleeting, docking or lockage operations. The AIS data was discovered to be of high quality, and capable of supporting a number of analyses. These include waterway and port congestion, hotspot identification, accident reconstruction (and near-miss investigation), and the impact of extreme weather on areal port and waterway traffic.
  Authors: Dobbins, James P; Langsdon, Lindsey C
  Authors: Dobbins, James P; Langsdon, Lindsey C
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 345
  Paper Number: 13-4218
• Computing and Evaluating Equilibrium Network Flows of Gasoline and Electric Vehicles
  Abstract: This paper addresses a simple traffic assignment problem with mode and route choices for the emerging need of modeling traffic networks that accommodate electric vehicles. Two transportation modes (or vehicle types), gasoline and electric vehicles, are exclusively included in the problem, which distinguish from each other in terms of the driving distance limit and travel cost composition. A convex programming model is proposed as a modeling tool for evaluating such mixed-mode traffic networks that are anticipated to exist for a long period in the electrified transportation era. Our focus in this paper is on the computation and evaluation of this mixed-mode traffic assignment problem’s solutions. In particular, we developed and implemented two competitive solution algorithms: one is a linear approximation algorithm of the Frank-Wolfe type, which allows for a parallel treatment of O-D pairs and a one-to-all constrained shortest path procedure for path generation; another is a quadratic approximation algorithm that makes use of the Gauss-Seidel decomposition to deal with O-D pairs in a sequential manner and generate paths by a one-to-one constrained shortest path procedure. Our experimental results from applying these algorithms for a number of synthetic and realistic networks clearly show that, from the model behavior perspective, the produced mode-route flows replicate the anticipated travel choice pattern, and, from the solution efficiency perspective, the relative competitiveness of the two algorithms depends on the required solution precision.
  Authors: Jiang, Nan; Xie, Chi
  Authors: Jiang, Nan; Xie, Chi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Energy; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 832
  Paper Number: 13-4251
• A Spatial Multivariate Count Model for Firm Location Decisions
  Abstract: This paper proposes a new spatial multivariate model to predict the count of new businesses at a county level in the State of Texas. Several important factors including agglomeration economies/diseconomies, industrial specialization indices, human capital, fiscal conditions, transportation infrastructure and land development characteristics are considered. The results highlight the need to use a multivariate modeling system for the analysis of business counts by sector type, while also accommodating spatial dependence effects in business counts.
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R.; Singh, Palvinder
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R.; Singh, Palvinder
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 450
  Paper Number: 13-4253
• Analyzing Sources of Variability in Travel Time Use in a Combined Framework Using Extended Structural Equation Models and UK National Travel Survey Data
  Abstract: This paper presents a new approach to investigating comprehensively the influences upon the variations in personal travel times. The influences include socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the travellers and their households, accessibility, land use characteristics of their residential areas, and the interactions between different trip purposes. Existing literature has variously examined such influences, but so far as we are aware this is the first time that all the above influences are examined within one combined framework. This is made possible through the use of extended structural equation models. The work presented here is focused on home to work journeys and shopping which takes the bulk of the personal travel times. The methodology is a general one and the investigation can be further expanded to include other travel purposes in the investigation, and indeed to investigate personal travel distances or trip rates. We use the UK National Travel Survey data from 2003 to 2008 which is a consistent and sufficiently large sample for our purposes. At the national level, we find that over the six years from 2003 to 2008 there is no evidence of any significant trend in travel time spent, either for home to work journeys or shopping, provided that appropriate explanatory variables are included in the model. At a personal level, we find that there is a wide range of variables that exert significant influences both directly and indirectly. Because socio-economic and demographic variables have a pronounced effect on residential location patterns and because all of these in turn influence car ownership rates, there is naturally a high degree of inter-correlation between the set of such influences on travel time, which is why the SEM-based approach has proved essential. The findings also show significant interactions among the trip purposes which should be considered for inclusion within advanced travel demand models.
  Authors: Jahanshahi, Kaveh; Jin, Ying; Williams, Ian N.
  Authors: Jahanshahi, Kaveh; Jin, Ying; Williams, Ian N.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 736
  Paper Number: 13-4287
• Development of Indicator to Assess Spatial Fit of Discrete Choice Models
  Abstract: Discrete choice models are increasingly implemented using geographical data. When this is the case, it may not be sufficient to project market shares accurately, but also to correctly locate them in space. Analysts might then be interested in assessing the results of a model’s fit relative to the spatial distribution of the observed responses. While canonical approaches exist for the exploratory spatial analysis of continuous variables, similar tools have not been widely implemented for discrete choice models, where the variable of interest is qualitative. For this reason, despite recent progress with spatial models for discrete outcomes, there is still not a simple and intuitive tool to assess the quality of the spatial fit of a discrete choice model. The objective of this paper is to introduce a new indicator of spatial fit that can be applied to the results of discrete choice models. Use of the indicator is demonstrated by means of a case study of vehicle ownership in Montreal, Canada.
  Authors: Paez, Antonio; Lopez, Fernando; Ruiz, Manuel; Morency, Catherine
  Authors: Paez, Antonio; Lopez, Fernando; Ruiz, Manuel; Morency, Catherine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-4290
• Gender Differences in Activity and Travel Behavior in the Arab World
  Abstract: The purpose of this research is to extend the research on gender differences in activity and travel patterns in the Arab world by studying in depth the interrelationship between various socio-economic and demographic variables, car ownerships, activity patterns and travel characteristics. For this purpose unique data set from three Arab villages in the Galilee region in Israel was collected. Using structural equations modeling, it was found that gender and income play an important role in how people travel to and participate in activities. Older men with high income who own a car tend to drive outside the city to work, and young men, who don't drive, spend less time outside the city. Women usually don't drive, don't work outside the city, and engage in non-work activities inside the village especially if they have school-aged children, and their commute pattern is becoming more complex due to an increasing tendency to include child serving stops. Analysis results indicate that residents use a sequential decision process based on the direction of decisions from user background and log-term decisions to decide to own automobiles or not, travel out of their village for work or to stay within the village for other daily activities, and spend more time on activities there. Recursive processes were not observed.
  Authors: Benjamin, Julian M.; Elias, Wafa; Shiftan, Yoram
  Authors: Benjamin, Julian M.; Elias, Wafa; Shiftan, Yoram
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation; Society
  Session: 594
  Paper Number: 13-4244
• SMUrFS: Situated Multiagent Urban Freight System
  Abstract: Characteristic of urban freight domain such as distributed decision making, dynamic interactions, emergence system behavior as well as weaknesses of current policy making methods demand a new approach to the city logistics domain modeling. It demands an approach which can simulate the details of continuously changing city logistics characteristic in efficient way and coin emergent behaviour of the dynamically changing city logistics activities. This methodology should be able to help understand undergoing changes of system which in turn create knowledge base about the system and its emergent behavioral processes for generating appropriate solutions of the problems associated with distributed decision making. This paper describes the modelling of city logistics covering strategic and tactical decision at logistic level whilst operation decision at distribution level using agent technology. The paper attempts to show the potential of agent technology in evaluating policy measures to reduce negative effects of city logistics domain. The architecture of the model enables the understanding of decentralized decision making of urban freight stakeholders and provides the decision makers with a useful tool to assess holistically the impacts of policies related to urban freight domain. Moreover, with modularity and extendibility it is possible to expand the model for real-life scenario.
  Authors: Anand, Nilesh R.; van Duin, J. H. R; Tavasszy, Lori A.
  Authors: Anand, Nilesh R.; van Duin, J. H. R; Tavasszy, Lori A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 407
  Paper Number: 13-4245
• Mega-Region Network Simulation for Evacuation Analysis
  Abstract: This paper describes a project to develop a micro-level traffic simulation for a megaregion. To accomplish this, a mass evacuation event was modeled using a traffic demand generation process that created a spatial and temporal distribution of departure times, origins, and destinations based on past hurricane scenarios. A megaregion-scale simulation was required to assess this event because only at this level can traffic from multiple cities, over several days, with route assignments in multiple and overlapping directions be analyzed. Among the findings of the research was that it is possible to scale-up and adapt existing models to reflect a simultaneous multi-city evacuation covering a megaregion. The movements generated by the demand and operational models were both logical and meaningful and they were able to capture the key elements of the system, including the traffic progression over vast spaces and long time durations. They were also adequate to demonstrate benefits of proactive traffic management strategies and the effect of increased and decreased advanced warning times. The project also revealed numerous limitations of existing modeling and computational processing capabilities. The knowledge and results gained from this research can be adaptable and transferable for the evaluation of other locations with different road networks, populations, transportation resources, and hazard threats. Models such as this can also be modified to represent future anticipated growth and development within other large regions and can be used to evaluate the performance, varying conditions, and interrelationships between behavioral response and regional transportation management strategies.
  Authors: Wolshon, Brian; Zhang, Zhao; Spansel, Katherine
  Authors: Wolshon, Brian; Zhang, Zhao; Spansel, Katherine
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 418
  Paper Number: 13-4317
• Accommodating Immigration Status and Self-Selection Effects in Joint Model of Household Auto Ownership and Residential Location Choice
  Abstract: As the proportion of immigrants in the US population continues to rise, it is becoming increasingly important to understand their residential location choices and travel behavior in the travel modeling and transportation policy making arena. This paper presents a joint model of residential location choice and auto ownership that explicitly accounts for immigration status and length of stay in the United States as explanatory variables. In addition, the joint model accommodates error correlations across the choice dimensions thus accounting for residential self-selection effects that may arise from unobserved preferences. The model takes the form of a bivariate multinomial probit (MNP) model and is estimated using the computationally tractable maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) approach on a San Francisco Bay Area subsample of the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). Model estimation results show that immigration and length of stay are significant explanatory variables in both residential location choice and auto ownership, with immigrants displaying assimilation effects, i.e., they increasingly resemble non-immigrant households as the length of stay increases. Even after controlling for immigration effects and including residential location choice as an explanatory variable in the auto ownership model, it is found that there are significant self-selection effects that are likely to dampen estimates of the impacts of land use changes on travel behavior in policy forecasts. The paper demonstrates the need to account for immigration variables and self-selection effects in transportation forecasting models that inform policy decisions.
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.; Lorenzini, Karen Marie; Konduri, Karthik Charan
  Authors: Paleti, Rajesh; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.; Lorenzini, Karen Marie; Konduri, Karthik Charan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 833
  Paper Number: 13-4335
• Mode-Specific Value of Time and Value of Reliability for Different User Classes in Iran
  Abstract: Value of Time (VOT) and Value of Reliability (VOR) have become two important measures in transportation project evaluation as well as in the determination of passengers’ travel choice behavior (e.g. mode choice, route choice, or time-of-day choice). Although a significant attention has been concentrated on the estimation of VOR and VOT in developed countries, the related literature has remained limited in case of developing countries. This paper aims to discover the behavioral aspects of passengers in terms of their VOT and VOR with respect to changes in passenger characteristics, such as sex, job, age and education. To better investigate the effect of other demand related characteristics, these indicators of travel behavior (i.e. VOT and VOR) have also been estimated for different journey purposes, different journey time periods and different modes of transport. To this end, a Stated Preference (SP) survey has been conducted to be combined with the available Revealed Preference (RP) data for the city of Mashhad, Iran. Then the combined RP/SP database has been used to estimate the coefficients of different utility functions in the combined mode choice modeling to achieve quantities for VOT and VOR. Results show that the change of VOT and VOR quantities among different passenger classes and selected modes is considerable.
  Authors: Rezaeestakhruie, Hojjat; Babaei, Mohsen; Kalantari, Navid
  Authors: Rezaeestakhruie, Hojjat; Babaei, Mohsen; Kalantari, Navid
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: International Activities; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 359
  Paper Number: 13-3770
• Allocation Optimization of Bicyclesharing System at Scenic Spots: Case Study
  Abstract: Bicycle-sharing system is considered as a green option to provide a better connection between scenic spots and nearby metro/bus stations. This paper focuses on allocating and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing system inside the scenic spot and around its influencing area. It is found that the terrain, land use, nearby transport network and scenery point distribution have significant impact on the allocation of bicycle-sharing system. While the candidate bicycle-sharing stations installed at the inner scenic points, entrances/exits and metro stations are fixed, unmovable, the ones installed at bus-stations and other passenger concentration buildings are adjustable. Aiming at minimizing the total cycling distance and overlapping rate, an optimization model is proposed and solved based on the idea of cluster concept and greedy heuristic. A RP/SP combined survey was conducted at Xuanwu Lake in Nanjing, China to get an insight into the touring trip characteristics and bicycle-sharing tendency. The results revealed that 39.81% visitors accept a cycling distance of 1~3 km and 62.50% respondents think that the bicycle-sharing system should charge an appropriate fee. The survey indicates there is high possibility to carryout bicycle-sharing system at Xuanwu Lake. Optimizing the allocation problem cluster by cluster rather than using exhaustive search method significantly reduces the computing amount from O(243) to O(432). The 500m-radius-coverage rate for the alternative optimized by 500m-radius -cluster and 800m-radius- cluster is 89.2% and 68.5%, respectively. The final layout scheme will provide decision makers engineering guidelines and theoretical support.
  Authors: Guo, Tangyi; Liu, Jun; Qizhou, Hu; Ye, Mao
  Authors: Guo, Tangyi; Liu, Jun; Qizhou, Hu; Ye, Mao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 559
  Paper Number: 13-3792
• A New Estimation Approach for the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Probit (MDCP) Choice Model
  Abstract: This paper develops a blueprint to apply Bhat’s (2011) Maximum Approximate Composite Marginal Likelihood (MACML) inference approach for the estimation of multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) models. A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does very well in recovering parameters, as well as appears to accurately capture the curvature of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function. The paper also demonstrates the application of the proposed approach through a study of individuals’ recreational choice among alternative destination locations and the number of trips to each recreational destination location, using data drawn from the 2004-2005 Michigan statewide household travel survey.
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Khan, Mubassira
  Authors: Bhat, Chandra R.; Castro, Marisol; Khan, Mubassira
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 391
  Paper Number: 13-3828
• Evaluation of Shape Grammar Rules for Urban Transport Network Design
  Abstract: Shape grammar rules are increasingly applied in urban simulation. Even though many network design standards propose shape grammar rules, little is known of the measurable impact of these rules on the performance of transport networks. This paper provides a general definition of shape grammar rules for transport network design. Different rules are evaluated regarding a comprehensive objective function. Networks are designed and simulated on featureless planes to avoid a bias due to history. Findings are compared with real-world case studies. Different network characteristics are evaluated in this paper.The densities of network loops are high in all generated networks, and comparable with real-world grids and medieval fabrics. The average length of network loops decreases as an inverse function of road density, which is in line with graph theory. Intersection density is proportional to the network length. The average number or arms of an intersection depends on road density. A denser network has a disproportionately higher density of 4 arm intersections, compared to less denser networks.Additionally, different road types are assigned to each road segment. Hierarchical road type distribution has a significant but low influence on network user costs. Terrain boundaries, as well as predefined roads (e.g. boulevards) increase average user costs. However, the average increase strongly depends on the number of bridges and on the boulevard capacity. The results show that shape grammar rules for transport network design can be evaluated to increase the understanding of their impacts, which supports future design standards.
  Authors: Vitins, Basil Janis; Garcia-Dorado, Ignacio; Vanegas, Carlos; Aliaga, Daniel; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Authors: Vitins, Basil Janis; Garcia-Dorado, Ignacio; Vanegas, Carlos; Aliaga, Daniel; Axhausen, Kay W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-3834
• Analysis of Transportation-Oriented Development in Washington, DC, and Baltimore Metropolitan Areas
  Abstract: Transit-oriented development (TOD) is mainly focused on providing transit service along with high density development and mixed use to encourage transit ridership. A TOD can be defined as “a place of relatively higher density that includes a mixture of residential, employment, shopping and civic uses and types located within an easy walk of a bus or rail transit center” . TODs are fast-growing developments and are getting more and more popular among city planners, land developers, and government officials because of their potential to reduce congestion, increase transit ridership and reduce VMT through shortening trips. However, there is not enough research done on how successful TODs are in providing sustainable transportation modes, and thus reducing energy consumption, pollution, and traffic congestion in urban areas. The present study examines people’s travel behavior in TOD and non-TOD areas in the Washington, DC and Baltimore metropolitan areas. This is done in order to analyze the effectiveness of TODs on encouraging more sustainable travel pattern via more transit use, walking, and bicycling. The question of “can transit-oriented development (TOD) reduce vehicle miles of travel?” has been asked frequently, since TOD was first proposed and implemented in urban areas. This paper tries to find a viable answer to this question by analyzing the travel behavior of the DC and Baltimore residents. Our results indicate that people living close to major transit stations tend to drive less, reducing the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by around 20 percent in DC and 21 percent in Baltimore for those who live in TOD areas, compared to non-TOD areas even with similar land use patterns.
  Authors: Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei
  Authors: Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 507
  Paper Number: 13-3840
• Exploration of Data-Pooling Techniques: Modeling Activity Participation and Household Technology Holdings
  Abstract: As data collection costs escalate and travel behaviour models become more data hungry, it becomes increasingly important to exploit existing sources of data to the greatest extent possible. Data fusion as a means of combining disparate sources of data, collected from entirely unconnected surveys, is therefore an avenue worth exploring. In this paper, we explore the possibility of pooling data from the UK National Travel Survey (NTS) and the UK Time Use Survey (TUS) to model the impacts of household technology holdings on leisure activity participation. We test three different data pooling techniques: ad-hoc cluster sampling, Rubin’s multiple imputation, and a Bayesian conditional probability model. The Bayesian conditional probability model uses the TUS data to develop a posterior distribution of the technology holdings and then integrates the leisure type model estimated on the NTS data over this posterior distribution. The results reiterate the fact that this is the most behavioural of the three data pooling techniques, and also support our hypothesis that household technology holdings are correlated with OH leisure activity patterns.
  Authors: Sivakumar, Aruna; Polak, John W.
  Authors: Sivakumar, Aruna; Polak, John W.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3846
• The Variety of the Golden Agers:Identifying Profiles of Older People for Mobility Research
  Abstract: The increasing share of older people in the European population causes challenges for the future transportation system. Older people have specific, heterogeneous and varying requirements, which have to be considered enhancing their mobility options. Due to the fact, that “the typical elderly” does not exist, this work is focusing on the development of distinguishable and internally cohesive types of the older people for enabling the development of more customized solutions in mobility research. In order to do so different information sources and analysis methods (quantitative statistical analysis of a pan-European databases, qualitative analysis of literature, in-depth interviews of experts, workshops) have been applied in a multi-stage approach. In total, the following five profiles have been identified which differ in demographics, physical and mental state of health, life satisfaction, activities and social networks, mobility behavior, technology usage as well as in coping strategies after incisive live changing events: Fit as a Fiddle including the youngest and active elderly; Hole in the Heart describing older people with severe limitations in younger ages; Happily Connected comprising socially active elderly with high life satisfaction; Oldie but a Goodie including the quite old but independent and mobile; the Care-Full containing those who need a lot of care and are not able to manage their daily lives on their own. The profiles provide the basis for identifying current and future transport needs of older people in consideration of the heterogeneity in this population.
  Authors: Mandl, Bettina; Millonig, Alexandra; Friedl, Veronika
  Authors: Mandl, Bettina; Millonig, Alexandra; Friedl, Veronika
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors
  Session: 605
  Paper Number: 13-3850
• Traffic Performance Impacts of Link Removal on a Grid Urban Pattern
  Abstract: In this paper we explore how the traffic performance of a grid street network changes when links are removed. Our objectives are: to better understand the behavior of grid-like patterns when dealing with traffic; to evaluate the effects of link removal in the overall traffic performance; and, to explore how far from the full grid pattern, an urban structure can be still considered one. We create an abstract grid network composed of 100 nodes and bidirectional streets. A simple demand model is applied to load the network effectively. The objective is to emulate a dense urban environment. We develop a static traffic assignment model using the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. The accuracy of this model has been increased by a more detailed intersection modeling scheme. The link removal strategies seek representing both: operational eventualities (blockage of streets), and, city planning policies aiming at recovering space for other activities. Links are removed in different ways: in a total random manner, focusing on the center of the grid, and, focusing on the perimeter of the grid. Up to 30 % of the total links are removed.As it will be seen, we analyze the critical points of a grid system when accommodating traffic. We show that it is possible to remove a certain percentage of links without worsening traffic conditions excessively. This magnitude is very dependent on the link removal strategy. We believe that these results can be very useful for city and traffic planners.
  Authors: Ortigosa, Javier; Menendez, Monica
  Authors: Ortigosa, Javier; Menendez, Monica
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 844
  Paper Number: 13-3851
• Pedestrian Routes in Mountain City: More Meaning and Significance over Simple Hikes
  Abstract: In this article, we have explored the concepts and methods of designing public spaces of pedestrian routes in mountain cities. With the case of designing pedestrian route system and demonstration section in Yuzhong Peninsula of Chongqing city, we have analyzed how to apply ¡°invitation¡± on pedestrian routes as a research result of the behavioral science, in the three stages of investigation, design and implementation, to make pedestrian routes friendly open to public life and give priority to pedestrians in the transportation system.
  Authors: Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Ning Mei
  Authors: Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Ning Mei
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 340
  Paper Number: 13-3859
• Empirical Investigation into Time Use and Activity Patterns of Dual-Earner Couples With and Without Young Children
  Abstract: This paper examines the time-use patterns of adults in dual-earner households with and without children as a function of several individual and household socio-demographics and employment characteristics. A disaggregate activity purpose classification including both in-home and out-of-home activity pursuits is used because of the travel demand relevance of out-of-home pursuits, as well as to examine both mobility-related and general time-use related social exclusion and time poverty issues. The study uses the Nested Multiple Discrete Continuous Extreme Value (MDCNEV) model to analyze data from the 2010 American Time Use Survey (ATUS). A major finding of the study is that the presence of a child in dual-earner households not only leads to a reduction in in-home activity participation, but also a substantially larger decrease in out-of-home activity participation, suggesting a higher level of mobility-related social exclusion relative to overall time-use social exclusion.
  Authors: Bernardo, Christina; Paleti, Rajesh; Hoklas, Megan; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Authors: Bernardo, Christina; Paleti, Rajesh; Hoklas, Megan; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 686
  Paper Number: 13-3868
• Demand of Bike-Sharing Travels: Evidence from Washington, D.C.
  Abstract: In recent years, bicycle sharing programs have gained much popularity in a number of cities in the United States and other nations. However, the demand for bike sharing travel is still not well understood. This paper investigates the characteristics of bike sharing travel demand, focusing on the Capital Bikeshare Program in Washington, D.C. Based on the detailed daily trip data from September 15, 2010 to March 31, 2012, a time-series analysis finds that an increase in the number of bike stations has a strong positive influence on bike sharing travel demand. In addition, weather and temperature are found to have significant associations with the Bikeshare usage as well. The study offers an optimistic view of the further expansion of the program in the greater Washington metropolitan region.
  Authors: Daito, Nobuhiko; Chen, Zhenhua
  Authors: Daito, Nobuhiko; Chen, Zhenhua
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 559
  Paper Number: 13-3869
• Calculating Potential Emission Reductions Through Introduction of Electric Vehicles
  Abstract: Electric vehicles are expected to significantly reduce road transport emissions, given an increasingly renewable power generation. While technological issues are more and more being overcome, the economic viability and thus possible adoption is still constrained, mainly by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first vehicles have been available on the market for some time now and many more are expected to arrive soon and at decreasing cost.In our work we analyze the possible market development for electric vehicles with an application to Germany. We develop a drivetrain choice model with economical, technical and social constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory. It estimates the demand for electric vehicles until 2030 for private and commercially registered cars as well as light commercial vehicles.The results show a replacement potential of more than one fourth of the total German annual mileage for these vehicles. The result has a high granularity to allow for detailed emission calculation along different spatial areas as well as vehicle and engine types. Besides a baseline forecast, our method allows for calculating different scenarios regarding policy actions or the future development of important parameters such as energy prices. The results provide insights for policy measures as well as for transport and environmental modeling.
  Authors: Kihm, Alexander; Trommer, Stefan; Mehlin, Markus
  Authors: Kihm, Alexander; Trommer, Stefan; Mehlin, Markus
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 833
  Paper Number: 13-3871
• Modeling Connection Between Activity-Travel Patterns and Subjective Well-being
  Abstract: Transportation forecasting models are invariably used to help inform policy and investment decisions. Although the logsum terms in choice model components have often been used to measure consumer surplus or welfare, such terms do not fully capture the welfare, satisfaction, and well-being that people derive from their activity-travel patterns. As a result, transportation models are currently unable to adequately reflect the impacts of policy and investment decisions on people’s well-being and overall quality of life. This paper presents a multivariate ordered response probit model that is able to capture the influence of activity-travel characteristics on subjective well-being while accounting for unobserved individual traits and attitudes that predispose people when it comes to their emotional feelings. The model, estimated on the well-being module of the 2010 American Time Use Survey data set, shows that activity-travel characteristics, besides individual and household demographics, are important determinants of feelings of well-being that people derive from their activity episodes. It is found that activity duration, activity start time, and child accompaniment significantly impact feelings of well-being for different activities. Differences were found in feelings of well-being depending on whether activities were pursued in-home or out-of-home. Error correlations were significant, suggesting that the multivariate ordered probit modeling approach is appropriate when analyzing measures of well-being across activity categories. By integrating the well-being model presented in this paper with activity-based microsimulation models of travel demand, measures of well-being for different demographic segments may be estimated and the impacts of alternative policy and investment decisions on quality of life can be better assessed.
  Authors: Archer, Melissa; Paleti, Rajesh; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Authors: Archer, Melissa; Paleti, Rajesh; Konduri, Karthik Charan; Pendyala, Ram M.; Bhat, Chandra R.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Planning and Forecasting
  Session: 731
  Paper Number: 13-3883
• Cycling or Not? How Urban Policy Influences Bicycle Evolution in Shanghai and Its Impact on Local Cyclists
  Abstract: Bike has a long history in China. In 1980s, China was known as ¡°the kingdom of bicycle¡±. Shanghai was once the largest national bicycle manufacture base, and cycling continues to be one of the most important commuting modes in Shanghai. However, Shanghai¡¯s bicycle mode share reduced more than 60% from 1995 to 2009. In the last few decades, no legitimate bicycle transportation policy in Shanghai was developed. Were the previous urban policy and planning account for the decline of cycling use? If so, to what extent had these urban policies influenced the bicycle usership in Shanghai? This paper aims to answer three of the following questions:1)Which urban policies were germane to the development of cycling based on reviewing the bicycle development trend in shanghai?2)How did the previous policies influence cycling in Shanghai. Why did that happen?3)How did these policies affect local cyclists?This paper is arranged in three main sections. The first section reviews data based on statistical record, examines the bicycle evolution in Shanghai and analyzes previous urban policies adopted which are pertained to the development of bicycle transportation in the same decade. The second section analyzes how these policies influence cycling and its environment. Based on the analysis of survey data, the paper discusses the change of the local cyclists¡¯ travel characteristics due to the impact of the above policies. Finally, implications are drawn to determine what the criteria of a sustainable cycling policy are.
  Authors: Tang, Yang; Pan, Haixiao; Lu, Qiaoyin
  Authors: Tang, Yang; Pan, Haixiao; Lu, Qiaoyin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Pedestrians and Bicyclists;