2013 Subject Index: Security and Emergencies

• Analysis Framework for Designing Two-Device Checked Baggage Inspection Systems at Airports
  Abstract: This paper presents a decision support analysis framework for selecting screening devices, their sensitivity parameters and detection thresholds in a two-device system for automated, non-intrusive inspection of checked baggage at airports. The analysis procedure assumes that the output signals of a screening device, when presented with a baggage with or without security threat, may be modeled by probability distributions. Compared with the pre-specified thresholds, the probability of making wrong decisions (false clear and false alarm) for the baggage may then be estimated. An objective function is then formulated to minimize the total expected cost of screening errors. Based on this framework, two decision criteria, one based on the minimum total expected cost and another one incorporates the operating characteristic curve of the system, are recommended. The application of the analysis framework is demonstrated with a hypothetical problem based on published data.
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey Long; Blejcharova, Nela; Bína, Ladislav
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey Long; Blejcharova, Nela; Bína, Ladislav
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0132
• Empirical Evacuation Response Curve During Hurricane Irene in Cape May County, New Jersey
  Abstract: Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders during an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time during evacuation. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs the evacuation response curve based on traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene (2011) in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope following the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. The sharp upward changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be in part caused by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, and/or the nature of the location, which in this case is a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and state-of-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with Logit and Rayleigh functions fit better with empirical data. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models based on this recent Hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays/weekends.
  Authors: Li, Jian; Ozbay, Kaan; Bartin, Bekir; Iyer, Shrisan; Carnegie, Jon
  Authors: Li, Jian; Ozbay, Kaan; Bartin, Bekir; Iyer, Shrisan; Carnegie, Jon
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-0285
• Leveraging Probe Data to Assess Security Checkpoint Wait Times
  Abstract: The process of travelling to an airport, passing through various processes, and ultimately departing the airport involves many activities. This paper focuses on using probe data obtained from phones with discoverable Bluetooth devices to sample the time it takes passengers to transit from the non-sterile to sterile side of an airport facility. To collect this data, the Kenton County Airport board partnered with Purdue University to conduct a study at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International airport (CVG) over a 3 week study period, during the 2011 Thanksgiving holiday. Bluetooth Monitoring Stations (BMSs) were used to collect unique identifiers from approximately 46,000 unique devices and compute over 1.5 million travel time between 17 different BMSs. Using a Pareto distribution approach, hourly security wait times were ordered and a methodology was developed to identify periods where there might be opportunities to reduce wait times (relative to a specified maximum wait time) by opening more lanes as well as periods where there might be opportunities to reduce the number of lanes operating. Using this methodology, it was determined that only 5 hours during the study period had median wait times of greater than 20 minutes during the month of November in 2011. The paper concludes by discussing how this technique can be used to perform longitudinal comparisons between airports as additional airports begin automating the collection of checkpoint wait times.
  Authors: Hainen, Alexander Michael; Remias, Stephen Matthew
  Authors: Hainen, Alexander Michael; Remias, Stephen Matthew
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: AV090
  Paper Number: 13-0435
• Consensus-Building Mechanism for Setting Service Expectations in Air Traffic Flow Management
  Abstract: A significant challenge of effective air traffic flow management (ATFM) is to allow for various competing airlines to collaborate with an air navigation service provider (ANSP) in determining flow management initiatives. This challenge has led over the past 15 years to the development of a broad approach to ATFM known as collaborative decision making (CDM). A set of CDM principles has evolved to guide the development of specific tools that support ATFM resource allocation. However, these principles have not been extended to cover the problem of providing strategic advice to an ANSP in the initial planning stages of traffic management initiatives. In this paper, we describe a mechanism whereby competing airlines provide “consensus” advice to an ANSP using a voting mechanism. It is based on the recently developed Majority Judgment voting procedure. The result of the procedure is a consensus real-valued vector, that must satisfy a set of constraints imposed by the weather and traffic conditions of the day in question. While we developed and modeled this problem based on specific ATFM features, it appears to be highly generic and amenable to a much broader set of applications. Our analysis of this problem involves several interesting subproblems, including a type of column generation process that creates candidate vectors for input to the voting process.
  Authors: Swaroop, Prem
  Authors: Swaroop, Prem
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0437
• Equitable Resource Allocation Mechanisms During Reduced Airspace Capacity
  Abstract: During bad weather, the Federal Aviation Administration is using various Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) initiatives to alleviate the problems associated with imbalanced demand and capacity. A new concept that was recently introduced to be part of the Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs) is the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), where customers are allowed to submit cost-weighted sets of alternative trajectory options for their flights. In this research we propose a meaningful way for carriers to express some preference structure during AFP. We also propose a resource mechanism allocation that will improve the system efficiency and at the same time will take into account the preferences of the airlines. First we examined how the results from using the proposed preference structure of airlines is compared to Ration By Schedule (RBS). Then we examined how the allocation mechanism proposed works compared to RBS.
  Authors: Vlachou, Kleoniki
  Authors: Vlachou, Kleoniki
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0438
• Creating an Air Traffic Analysis Structure to Support Forecasting
  Abstract: A well structured analytical process for air traffic is required at NAV CANADA for two main reasons. The first is for forecasting and the continued enhancement of the empirical forecasting models that are currently under development. The second is to respond to questions regarding the air traffic activity during recent periods. This paper describes the process and levels of analysis without any discussion regarding the results. Results from May 2012 are shown as the sample month.
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0482
• Productivity Performance of U.S. Passenger Airlines Since Deregulation
  Abstract: To evaluate US passenger airlines' productivity performance since the airline deregulation in 1978, this paper measures and compares productivity at both the US airline industry and individual carrier levels.Productivity is measured at the aggregate airline industry level in terms of multifactor productivity (MFP), the ratio of a single output to a combination of inputs, to compare industry productivity over time from 1978 to 2009. In addition, productivity is measured at the disaggregate carrier level in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), the ratio of total outputs to total inputs, to compare productivity growth across airlines and over time from 1995 to 2010.Overall, results indicate that US passenger airlines have experienced tremendous MFP improvements since deregulation despite periods of reduced productivity levels that coincide with exogenous factors including economic recessions, fuel price spikes, and other unforeseen events. Cumulative MFP in terms of airline traffic, measured in revenue-passenger miles (RPMs), and network capacity, as determined by available seat miles (ASMs), increased at 191% and 117%, respectively, between 1978 and 2009. Looking at individual US carriers’ productivity, low-cost carriers achieved rapid TFP growth in the early 2000s before leveling off in the latter portion of the decade. The restructuring efforts of legacy carriers enabled them to improve their productivity growth in the latter part of the 2000s, although at a much lower rate than their low-cost counterparts. As of 2010, although low-cost carriers had a slight advantage in TFP levels, there is evidence of continued convergence between the two carrier types.
  Authors: Powell, Robert Andre; Mwakalonge, Judith L.; Perkins, Judy A.
  Authors: Powell, Robert Andre; Mwakalonge, Judith L.; Perkins, Judy A.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0667
• Optimization Model for Dispatching Heterogeneous Emergency Vehicles
  Abstract: An emergency is a situation that causes an immediate risk to the property, health, or lives of civilians. Emergency response services such as police, fire, and medical services play crucial roles in all communities and can minimize the adverse effects of emergency incidents by decreasing the response time. The goal of this research is to develop a comprehensive optimization dispatching model for emergency call centers or emergency management centers. This model can come up with the best dispatching algorithm based on real-time information about the status of the emergency-response fleet, traffic information and the status of emergency calls. This problem is formulated as an integer programming model. Three categories of emergency vehicle types are considered in the system: police cars, ambulances, and fire vehicles. The police department is assumed to have a homogeneous fleet, but ambulances and fire vehicles are heterogeneous.
  Authors: Sharifi, Elham; Haghani, Ali; Sadrsadat, Hadi
  Authors: Sharifi, Elham; Haghani, Ali; Sadrsadat, Hadi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-0686
• Exploring the Feasibility of Using Airport Data in Real-Time Risk Assessment
  Abstract: The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports’ weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link 6-year (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from 8 airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research depicts that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways.
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed M.; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A.; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed M.; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A.; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0834
• ON TRAFFIC SAFETY HAZARDS IN EVACUATIONS DUE TO CHANGES IN DRIVING BEHAVIOR
  Abstract: Real-life observations as well as driving simulator experiments have shown how driving behavior under mentally demanding conditions, such as during an evacuation, differs in certain aspects from that at normal traffic conditions. In this paper, we continue with these findings by investigating how these differences in driving behavior have an impact on traffic safety. For this, the microscopic simulation framework S-Paramics is adapted accordingly, and applied to the evacuation network of the Dutch city of Almere. This experimental setup allows a structured and in-depth analysis of the relationship between a number of driving behavior parameters and the emergent traffic safety, which are quantified by four different safety indicators based on the well-reported time-to-collision value. Where earlier studies conclude that a reduction in mean time headway and minimum gap acceptance substantially improves the overall evacuation time, here it is found to also result in more traffic safety hazards, potentially leading to actual traffic accidents that in turn may obstruct the evacuation progress. Furthermore, traffic safety is shown to decline over time, resulting in (substantially) less safe conditions for those who depart later. With these model results and findings, the accompanying discussions and conclusions are insightful and have direct implications for evacuation planning and control practices.
  Authors: Tu, Huizhao; Li, Hao; Pel, Adam J.; Sun, LiJun
  Authors: Tu, Huizhao; Li, Hao; Pel, Adam J.; Sun, LiJun
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-1124
• Addressing Two Issues in Airline Origin and Destination Survey
  Abstract: The methods proposed are intended to estimate historical air travel demand and capacity information which could be useful in (say) calibrating demand analysis and forecasting models. More specifically, we addressed two issues in the Airline Origin and Destination Survey data. One is that it contains some sampling errors. The other one is that it does not provide capacity information. To address the first issue, we design a constrained least square model to estimate the complete historical travel demand served by the survey participating carriers. To address the second issue, we propose an adaptive adjustment capacity estimation scheme and embed it into the solution algorithm of the constrained least square model. We applied the methods to the 2007 survey data. We found that 1) on average, about 75% of the itineraries’ actual capacities are utilized and the variance is about 7%; 2) the survey oversampled the total demand by about 0.4% and the variance of sample rate is about 1.1%.
  Authors: Lee, Tao; Baik, Hojong
  Authors: Lee, Tao; Baik, Hojong
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1280
• State Transition of Gaze During Flight Simulation
  Abstract: The analysis of eye movements is a popular tool in traffic safety research. Among different motions of eye movements, gaze is a major parameter of eye tracking process. Besides fixation duration time and fixation duration percentage, transition matrix from one gaze state to the other can catch the dynamics of gaze patterns and capture the important features of eye movements. In this study, an inexpensive experiment system is designed to create a simulation environment where the participants can performance flight tasks. This system combines up-to-date eye tracker (FaceLAB 4.0), flight simulation (Microsoft Flight Simulator X and Logitech G940), and data management tools. Experiments are designed to test critical flight phases under different meteorological conditions. During the experiments, gaze views are divided into three zones: cabin instrument panel, outside and others. Markov Chain models are applied to analyze the data collected from the experiment system. State transition probability matrix and stationary distribution vector are computed. The result shows that there are no significant differences among gaze state transition matrixes, for all the scenarios. In addition, the total flight time and gaze ratio on zones are unstable.
  Authors: Dong, Shen; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Yu
  Authors: Dong, Shen; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Yu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1440
• The Lessons From Catastrophic Events For Post-disaster Humanitarian Logistic Efforts: The Port Au Prince Earthquake And The Tohoku Disasters
  Abstract: The large catastrophic events in Haiti and Japan, which occurred in relatively close succession, provide a unique opportunity to enhance post-disaster humanitarian logistic (PD-HL) strategies to respond to catastrophes, and extract lessons to incorporate in future disaster preparation efforts. This article discusses the lessons learned from the Port au Prince earthquake and the Tohoku disasters in Japan, and produces a set of recommendations based on the combined lessons of the PD-HL operations in Haiti and Japan. The research conducted includes extensive field work and interviews to first responders and authorities in both disasters. This paper contains important lessons from field experience on the disaster response and insights into policy recommendations for disaster preparation and training.
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Taniguchi, Eiichi; Aros-Vera, Felipe
  Authors: Holguín-Veras, Jose; Jaller, Miguel Angel; Taniguchi, Eiichi; Aros-Vera, Felipe
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: AT065T
  Paper Number: 13-1771
• Robust Dynamic Distribution of Security Assets in Transit Systems
  Abstract: A robust, mixed-integer, multi-stage program is presented that seeks to effectively secure a transit system where risk is considered to be dynamic and varies over time. A time-varying risk measure reflects the unique nature of transit systems, where accumulation of passengers at transfer facilities, stations and transit vehicles is dynamic and increases the vulnerability of the transit users and system to adverse events. The model is robust under uncertainty and better matches security assets at stations in the face of time-varying risk by redistributing them. The volume-dependent risk measure and subsequent deployment of security assets are developed for the transit system in Washington, D.C. demonstrating the variable nature of risk and response. The value of considering a robust solution is demonstrated by comparing the strategies developed from a robust approach to those from an expected value approach. Five scenarios, designed on recent events on the system, replicate the operational conditions of the transit system for the morning rush hour period and show the effectiveness of the developed deployment strategies.
  Authors: Nair, Rahul; Kumi, Jonathan; Denny, Kevin; Miller-Hooks, Elise
  Authors: Nair, Rahul; Kumi, Jonathan; Denny, Kevin; Miller-Hooks, Elise
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-1641
• Bilevel Model for Optimal Shelter Selection in Emergency Evacuation Operations
  Abstract: Due to the frequent happening of catastrophic natural disasters and man-made disasters in recent decades, emergency management has become an important issue around the world. Therefore, effective traffic operations for emergency evacuation during emergency events are critical to alleviate the impact from disasters. Designing well-planned evacuation routes is the first priority for the evacuation process. Before planning the evacuation routes, the evacuation demand patterns for different areas in different disaster scenarios must be known. Moreover, the shelter locations are the basis for us to plan for evacuation routes. This research proposes a bi-level programming model to combine the shelter location problem and the evacuation trip distribution problem. The shelter location problem is formulated as a mathematical model solved by the CPLEX optimizer in the upper level. The evacuation trip distribution problem is solved by an entropy-based gravity model and the DynaTAIWAN simulation assignment model in the lower level. The upper level aims to determine the location of shelters selected, while the lower level aims to determine the trip distribution from the result of shelter location problem. The results from the proposed model determine the locations of shelter and the total number of shelters. This research suggests the Kaohsiung City Government should setup “regular shelter” and prepare emergency kits (survival kits) and emergency relief (goods or materials in emergency) at the regular shelters for the sake of emergency conditions.
  Authors: Hu, Ta-Yin; Ou, Hui-Ching; Ho, Wei-Ming
  Authors: Hu, Ta-Yin; Ou, Hui-Ching; Ho, Wei-Ming
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-1929
• Historical Review of Air Traffic Management System Concept of Operations
  Abstract: Air Traffic Management (ATM) system has the objective of enabling aircraft operators to meet their planned times of departure and arrival and adhere to their preferred flight profiles with minimum constraints and without compromising agreed levels of safety.Understanding a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) is the most critical step required for a holistic analysis of any system, including the ATM system. CONOPS is a document that contains all the necessary information by which to explain a system as a whole for the needs of all parties involved in its production and exploitation. In recent years there have been many attempts to define the future CONOPS of the ATM system whilst ignoring both the current ATM CONOPS and also the historical evolution of the ATM CONOPS.This paper, by means of a literature review from multiple sources, aims to critically review the CONOPS through all the different phases ATM has undergone from the beginnings of aviation. By doing so, this paper aims to overcome the gap in the existing literature related to the ATM CONOPS evolution description. Additionally the paper highlights the importance of understanding of the ATM CONOPS as means for deriving a holistic system description. This has been illustrated with two examples showing the ATM system structure based on the CONOPS from the period between 1990 and 2005, and the CONOPS from the period between 2005 and 2025 respectively.
  Authors: Studic, Milena; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.; Schuster, Wolfgang
  Authors: Studic, Milena; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.; Schuster, Wolfgang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1972
• Investigation of Existing Nonintrusive Inspection Technologies for Port Cargo Inspections by Discrete-Event Simulation Modeling
  Abstract: The quantity of cargo handled by United States ports has increased significantly in recent years. Based on 2004 data, almost 2.7 billion tons of cargo passed through the ports in one year. To protect the U.S., all of this cargo must be inspected by U.S. Customs Border Protection (CBP) officials in the most effective manner possible. Existing non-intrusive inspection (NII) technologies have significant strengths, but they also have some weaknesses, such as a low detection rate and a long inspection time. Fortunately, there are newer and more advanced technologies that can be used to inspect cargo with higher accuracy and less delay. The goal of this research was to identify the most effective and efficient combination of NII technologies for inspecting cargo arriving at U.S. ports. For this purpose, a discrete-event simulation model was developed to simulate the cargo inspection procedure. By simulating the operations of different combinations of NII technologies, the effectiveness and efficiency of the various combinations were evaluated. This information was used to provide recommendations about the most effective and efficient combinations of NII technologies for detecting a wide range of contraband. The results of this research are helpful in making decisions concerning the appropriate choices of NII technologies for use in inspecting cargo that is entering U.S. ports.
  Authors: Qi, Yi; Salehi, Yasamin; Wang, Yubian
  Authors: Qi, Yi; Salehi, Yasamin; Wang, Yubian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-2083
• Improving Transportation Resource Coordination for Multimodal Evacuation Planning: Literature Review and Research Agenda
  Abstract: In a large-scale urban evacuation necessitated by a disaster, many can self-evacuate in private automobiles, but evacuating “carless” individuals and families poses a great logistical challenge that many cities, counties, and states cannot meet. A majority of emergency operations plans for large urbanized areas are insufficient in describing in specific and measurable terms how a major evacuation could be conducted successfully. This study first systematically reviews the challenge of multi-modal evacuation planning and next presents a detailed literature review of published research and government documents to identify barriers to improving multi-modal evacuation planning using high-capacity vehicles to transport those who cannot self-evacuate. Findings suggest that, despite a body of research on multi-modal transportation and the importance of integrating it into evacuation planning, most state and local governments do not have adequate planning processes, training, and exercises to evacuate households without automobiles. A research agenda about multi-modal evacuation planning is outlined, and a new volunteer-driven community-supported evacuation organization is suggested.
  Authors: Hess, Daniel Baldwin; Conley, Brian W.; Farrell, Christina M.
  Authors: Hess, Daniel Baldwin; Conley, Brian W.; Farrell, Christina M.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-2084
• Calibration and Validation of a Regional-Level Traffic Model for Hurricane Evacuation
  Abstract: One of the key issues with evacuation models, or any traffic model, is that some public officials place little faith in the results generated by these models. The way to reassure doubts is by thorough calibration and validation of the model. However, there has been little research in this particular area of evacuation modeling. In an effort to expand the literature on evacuation model calibration/validation, the purpose of this paper is to provide a narrative in which the authors discuss the calibrated and validated a regional-scale evacuation model using observed evacuation data. A traffic simulation model was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a regional-level mass emergency evacuation for Southeastern Louisiana. The model was constructed using the TRANSIMS transportation modeling system. The narrative details three important aspects of traffic modeling: trip assignment convergence, macro-level calibration, and network flow validation. Similar results were found after testing two convergence criteria sets. A “descending” criteria set was ultimately chosen since it could lead to a more robust routing solution. During the calibration procedure, it was difficult to determine which parameter value would be the most appropriate. This was an expected result since the calibration focused on the entire regional network rather than select routes. The validation procedure revealed the importance of including background traffic in the simulation model. The results here should lead to further enhancements made toward effectively calibrating and validating traffic models for evacuation analysis.
  Authors: Montz, Thomas; Zhang, Zhao
  Authors: Montz, Thomas; Zhang, Zhao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2339
• Sensitivity of Evacuation Performance Estimates to Evacuee Route Choice Behavior
  Abstract: The objective of this paper is to illustrate the sensitivity of evacuation travel time estimates with respect to the assumptions made regarding evacuee route choice behavior. The user equilibrium (UE) assignment procedure in which evacuees are assumed to choose the shortest (or fastest) path from their origins to destinations is considered as the base case. Very few studies have documented the actual route choice behavior of evacuees during a hurricane. These studies were used to develop realistic route choice behavior assumptions - the different types of route choices and proportion of evacuees for those types. The impact of route choice behavior on evacuation performance, especially travel times, was then explored using a large-scale regional simulation model of the Hampton Roads region in Virginia. The model was developed in an earlier study using real-world network data and actual evacuee behavioral data. The analysis indicated that using UE to generate average travel time estimates for evacuation planning significantly underestimates the actual travel times realized during an evacuation. The extent of underestimation of evacuation travel times depends on the total evacuation demand (a function of storm intensity), and the percent of evacuees willing to use en-route information to seek alternate routes when facing congestion. For the three en-route percentages reported in the literature i.e., 30%, 50%, and 70%, the UE travel times were 48%, 37%, and 29% lower than actual travel times realized in a category 1; 99%, 78%, and 63% lower in a category 2; and 88%, 72%, and 52% lower in a category 3 evacuation.
  Authors: Fang, Lei; Edara, Praveen
  Authors: Fang, Lei; Edara, Praveen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-2227
• Evacuation in Large-scale Transportation Network: A Bi-Level Control Method with Uncertain Arterial Demand
  Abstract: To improve the efficiency of large-scale evacuation, a network aggregation method and a bi-level optimization control method are proposed in this paper. The network aggregation method indicates the uncertain evacuation demand on the arterial sub-network and balances accuracy and efficiency by refining the local road sub-networks. The bi-level optimization control method is developed to reconfigure the aggregated network from both supply and demand sides with contraflow and conflict elimination. The main purpose of this control method is to make the arterial sub-network to be served without congestion and interruption. Then, a corresponding bi-objective network flow model is presented in a static manner for an oversaturated network, and a GA-based solution method is used to solve the evacuation model. The numerical results from optimizing a city-scale evacuation network for a super typhoon justify the validness and usefulness of the network aggregation method and optimization control method.
  Authors: Hua, Jingyi; Ren, Gang; Cheng, Yang; Yu, Chen; Ran, Bin
  Authors: Hua, Jingyi; Ren, Gang; Cheng, Yang; Yu, Chen; Ran, Bin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2254
• Generalized Minimum Cost Flow Model for Multiple Emergency Flow Routing and Optimal Contraflow Design
  Abstract: During real-life disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, terrorist attack and other unexpected events, emergency evacuation and rescue are two main operations to save affected people¡¯s life and property. It is unavoidable that evacuation flow and rescue flow will conflict with each other on the same spatial road network and in the same time window. We proposed a generalized minimum cost flow model to optimize the distribution pattern of these two kinds of flow on the same network by introducing the conflict cost. The travel time on each link is assumed to be subject to BPR function rather than a fixed cost (such as link length or free flow travel time). Also, we integrate contra-flow operations into this model to re-design the shared network by those two kinds of flow. Consequently, a non-convex mixed integer non-linear programming model with bilinear, fractional and power items is constructed. GAMS/BARON is used to solve this programming model, and a case study is performed in downtown area of Harbin city in China to verify the efficiency of proposed model. Several helpful findings and managerial insights are also presented.
  Authors: An, Shi; Cui, Jianxun; Wang, Jian; Zhao, Meng
  Authors: An, Shi; Cui, Jianxun; Wang, Jian; Zhao, Meng
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2438
• Using National Household Travel Survey Data for Assessment of Transportation System Vulnerabilities
  Abstract: This paper describes how the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data can be used within the framework of FEMA’s recently promulgated THIRA (Threat Hazard Identification Risk Assessment) approach to assess transportation system vulnerability. Following this five step process for identifying and assessing risks and associated impacts, the purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, the intent of the paper is to find common ground between the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Department of Transportation systems, approaches, and methods of risk assessment. Second, the paper looks specifically at transportation vulnerabilities. Vulnerability has been traditionally associated with the loss of the transportation infrastructure assets or the loss of efficacy of the transportation system. This approach is expanded and improved by shifting the focus of transportation system infrastructure to the travel patterns and attributes of the individuals. Third, using data from Honolulu, the largest county in Hawaii, the vulnerability of transportation assets is evaluated. The findings are useful not just for Hawaii, but the methodological contributions are relevant to broader concerns regarding risk, risk assessment, threat and hazard reduction. The paper first describes how the proposed approach of transportation system vulnerability assessment fits within the THIRA process. A transportation system vulnerability assessment method is then developed and demonstrated using data from the 2001 NHTS Oahu add-on survey and probable coastal inundation scenario caused by hurricane storm surge, inland flooding and sea level rise. A GIS-based approach was used for simulation of travel routes and to assess the transportation system vulnerabilities for individuals and households. In addition to demonstrating the importance and value of NHTS data, recommendations for improving the quality, availability, and usefulness of this important data source for the reduction of risks are provided
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric Yukio
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric Yukio
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-2527
• Considering Individuals with Disabilities in Building Evacuation: Agent-Based Simulation Study
  Abstract: Catastrophic events in the United States have highlighted numerous issues regarding effective emergency evacuations. In existing studies, individuals with disabilities have not been a significant feature of evacuation investigations due to the lack of empirical data and thus their evacuation needs have been generally overlooked. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate how effectively the built environmental accommodates the needs of individuals with disabilities during emergency evacuations. Specifically, we explored whether there is a difference between the general population and population with considering individuals with disabilities in terms of time to egress via an agent-based microsimulation called BUMMPEE model. This model can consider several types of disabilities explicitly in terms of speed, ability to negotiate the environment, and psychological profile depending on type of disability. The model was applied for a real four story office building. The results of simulation experiments show that there is a significant difference between mean evacuation time for homogenous and heterogeneous populations. An increase in population size leads to an increased difference. Additionally, results demonstrate that the fourth floor of the building has the worst performance among other floors and persons who use wheelchairs are most at risk during emergency evacuation process.
  Authors: Christensen, Keith; Sharifi, Mohammad Sadra; Chen, Anthony
  Authors: Christensen, Keith; Sharifi, Mohammad Sadra; Chen, Anthony
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2790
• Understanding Evacuation Destination Distance and Departure Time Choices: Joint Modeling Approach
  Abstract: This paper investigates the causal factors that influence the household-level evacuation departure timing and the destination distance choices under two different behavioral assumptions, namely the decisions are made simultaneously or sequentially with the evacuation timing determined after the destination. The effects of various independent variables are compared using the bivariate Generalized Linear Model (BGLM) and Poisson model. Under either assumption, the number of children under 17 and pre-evacuation preparation time are statistically significant. More children under 17 increase the likelihood of leaving early. Less time in pre-evacuation preparation leads to a later departure. The Poisson model with random parameters also found statistical significance for the household size and partial regional difference for evacuation timing choice. In the BGLM model, evacuation accommodation type, household income, and education level are statistically significant for evacuation timing. The travel distance depends on many factors. Public shelter as the destination, the number of elderly people, no evacuation warning, low income and shorter preparation time contribute to a shorter travel distance. A large household size, a mandatory evacuation recommendation, and post-graduate education level lead to longer travel distance. In order to examine the behavior of the households under the no-evacuation warning situation, a random-coefficient model is used to capture the possible behavioral heterogeneity among the underlying evacuation population under the sequential decision-making assumption. The departure time decisions for the “shadow evacuation” population are not statistically different from those who received an evacuation warning, but among the “shadow evacuation” population itself, departure timing shows heterogeneity.
  Authors: Yin, Weihao; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Gladwin, Hugh
  Authors: Yin, Weihao; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Gladwin, Hugh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2935
• No-Notice Evacuation Management: Ramp Closures Under Varying Budgets and Demand Scenarios
  Abstract: To promote smoother freeway traffic flow during evacuations, ramps may be closed, reducing the number of merging and related speed reduction points. Deciding which ramps to close can be treated as an optimization problem where the decision variables are integers indicating whether the ramp is open or closed. This paper examines the problem under multiple demand and budget scenarios for no-notice evacuations. Through the optimization formulation and solution method, optimized closure plans are developed for each scenario and compared to the “do-nothing” and an existing plan developed with professional judgment. The optimized plans outperform the others in terms of the evacuees’ total travel time but are sometimes associated with decreases in overall network throughput. Three ramp closures, consistent across the scenarios, are explored as a reduced closure plan and evacuee benefits are identified for all of the scenarios over the “do-nothing” option except in the most congested background traffic scenario. However, even in the most congested case, the 3-ramp closure plan improved evacuees’ travel times over the plan developed without analytical and simulation support. While the exact optimized ramp closure plan varies across scenarios and budgets, overlap of the plans can help generate a smaller closure plan that provides benefits over strictly judgment based plans and over the “do-nothing” option in less congested cases.
  Authors: Ghanipoor Machiani, Sahar; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Jahangiri, Arash; Liu, Sirui; Park, Byungkyu (Brian); Chiu, Yi-Chang; Wolshon, Brian
  Authors: Ghanipoor Machiani, Sahar; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Jahangiri, Arash; Liu, Sirui; Park, Byungkyu (Brian); Chiu, Yi-Chang; Wolshon, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-3003
• Classification of Days Using Weather-Affected Traffic in National Airspace System
  Abstract: Classification of days based on weather impact on the National Airspace System is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic management decisions in the past, which ultimately can improve the operational readiness when similar events occur in the future. To achieve this goal, this paper presents a methodology to classify days based on severe weather impact on traffic. A daily index of the impact of severe weather on scheduled traffic flow, termed as the Weather Impacted Traffic Index, is used as an input to perform the classification. First, a factor analysis is performed to identify the dominant weather patterns that occur on various days. Six major weather factors are identified based on this analysis. Factor scores are obtained for each day based on the day’s weather location and severity. Days are clustered using Ward’s minimum-variance method applied to the daily factor scores. The outcome of the analysis is a set of 21 clusters and days within each cluster. While the weather and traffic in the days belonging to a common cluster are similar, they are not completely identical. Following the classification of days, the reroute advisories are analyzed to identify the frequently used routes on days belonging to various clusters. It is observed that the most frequently used reroutes on days that belong to a particular cluster exhibit similarity to the National Playbook routes designed to mitigate weather impact on those days, which is an intuitive result that is supported by data analysis.
  Authors: Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar
  Authors: Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3363
• Optimal Planning of Signal Control and Uninterrupted Flow Strategies in a Dynamic Evacuation Network
  Abstract: It is well accepted in literature that uninterrupted flow (or cross-elimination) operations can significantly outperform signal control strategies in terms of expanding network capacity and improving the overall evacuation performance. This result holds well in a static network in which the dynamic flow patterns are not explicitly modeled (e.g., queuing on network links and time-varying evacuation demand). This paper examines the problem of planning signal control and uninterrupted flow strategies in a dynamic evacuation network setting. More specifically, the following critical questions are investigated: 1) Do the findings from previous studies regarding the uninterrupted flow operations still hold in a dynamic evacuation network? 2) Does an optimal trade-off between signalized and uninterrupted flow operations exist to maximize the overall evacuation performance? 3) If yes in 2), what would be their most appropriate numbers and locations? And 4) How to set turning restriction plans for those uninterrupted flow intersections?
  Authors: Liu, Yue; Luo, Zhenke; Yu, Jie; Mao, Jing
  Authors: Liu, Yue; Luo, Zhenke; Yu, Jie; Mao, Jing
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-3279
• Criticality Prioritization of Transportation Infrastructure Under Flooding in Coastal Areas
  Abstract: Climate change is challenging human society with frequent and serious impacts. Transportation infrastructures in the coastal area are especially vulnerable to flood impacts from storm surge, sea level rise, intense precipitation, and so on. Transportation infrastructure maintenance and retrofit plan should give priority to critical infrastructures whose failure will have important impacts on the network performance. In order to better inform decision makers of the criticality of transportation infrastructures in case of flooding, this study explores an accessibility-based criticality prioritization methodology to identify and rank critical transportation infrastructures under flooding risks. In particular, the methodology evaluates the network-wide impacts of infrastructure failure based on the increase in travel cost taking traffic congestion, trip cancellation, and location importance into account. The methodology is applied to the road network of Hillsborough County, Florida. Light detection and ranging elevation data, transportation infrastructure and network, and zone-based population data of the County are processed for the analysis. The approach yields results of not only the criticality prioritization of transportation infrastructures at flooding risks but also the most vulnerable regions as a result of infrastructure inundation. We show that some infrastructures are critical to its surrounding areas, while some become important to a much broader region. The results further demonstrate that an infrastructure is more critical if it serves more people in the study area.
  Authors: Lu, Qing-Chang; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Zhang, Junyi
  Authors: Lu, Qing-Chang; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Zhang, Junyi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-3199
• Sources of Market Power in the Airline Industry: Panel Data Evidence from U.S. Airports
  Abstract: A firm can obtain market power through its dominant position on the product market, or via control of a key resource. In particular, it has been argued that airport dominance is a more important source of market power in the US airline industry than route dominance. We examine this contention by analyzing a 17-year panel of airport-level prices in the United States. We demonstrate that even though on average airport-level concentration appears to be the strongest source of market power, concentration on routes originating at an airport is the strongest predictor of price levels for the sub-set of large and medium hub airports. There is little evidence that either airport or route dominance significantly affect prices in the sub-sample of medium and small hub airports. There is also little evidence that an airport’s dominant carrier exerts market power beyond the level predicted by the airport or route dominance. Our results imply that consumer welfare losses due to airline consolidation can be concentrated in smaller communities, and related to changes in airport-level concentration. We provide a simple evaluation of the possible effects of two recent mergers (Delta – Northwest and United – Continental) in light of this finding, and suggest that the former consolidation event can potentially lead to non-trivial consumer welfare losses to travelers in over 30 small communities.
  Authors: Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Authors: Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3382
• Explanatory Power of Different Data Envelopment Analysis Models for Determining Airports’ Cost Efficiency
  Abstract: For analysing cost efficiency of airports and the determinants of that efficiency there are several Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methods available. The variety across the available approaches is primarily a result of different assumptions in the model specification. Whilst it is well established that the outcome of these models vary depending on what the analyst assumes with respect to input/output orientation and economies of scale, there is still a lively debate on the impact of bootstrapping and the choice of input variables on the explanatory power of such models. This paper analyses the cost efficiency of Italian and Norwegian airports over time. We apply a series of two-stage DEA approaches, with truncated regression models in the second stage to evaluate the explanatory value of the chosen methods and also to establish robust results on the impact factors of airports’ cost efficiency. With regard to the latter we find that the impact of airport size is limited to technical efficiency and that the catchment area is the most significant impact factor on cost efficiency.
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Mangia, Luca
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Mangia, Luca
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3459
• Low-Cost Airlines-Within-Airlines: Business Model Moving East
  Abstract: Low-cost carriers (LCCs) are a significant threat to the sustainability of conventional airlines. That LCCs are growing – particularly within Asia-Pacific – exacerbates this problem and conventional airlines have reacted to this threat in various forms. One strategy is to create lower-cost subsidiaries, known as airlines-within-airlines (AWAs). Hence, the purpose of this paper is to determine the necessary criteria for successful AWAs while updating analysis of past, present, and proposed and announced AWAs. For this, we revisit existing literature and airline data, mainly from annual reports, from such AWAs. Initial results indicate that AWAs have limited success, with 26 failures of an identified 67, although only three in Asia-Pacific. Of those presently operating, 56.7% are from Asia-Pacific with this region containing 54.5% of the proposed and announced carriers. In our view it is ill-defined strategies, late market entrance, excessive management control, insufficient dissimilarity from the parent, higher costs and less efficiency vis-à-vis low-cost competitors, and comparatively low fares that are key reasons for failure. In contrast, the most successful AWAs have considerable autonomy from their parent, market dominance, decisive leadership, and less deviation from the pure LCC model unless a sufficient revenue premium is achieved.
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Pearson, James
  Authors: Merkert, Rico; Pearson, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3580
• How to Evacuate? Model to Understand Routing Strategies During Hurricane Evacuation
  Abstract: In this paper we explain a modeling approach which offers better understanding of the routing strategies taken by the evacuees to reach a safe destination during hurricane evacuation. Route choice during evacuation is a complex process, because evacuees may prefer to take the usual or familiar route on the way to the destination or they might follow the routes recommended by the emergency officials. Depending on the condition of the traffic stream, sometimes they might switch to a different route to obtain better travel time from the one initially attempted. By using data from Hurricane Ivan, a mixed (random parameters) logit model is estimated which captures the decision making process on what type of route to select while accounting for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity across households. Estimation findings indicate that the choices of evacuation routing strategy involve a complex interaction of variables related to household location, evacuation characteristics and socio-economic characteristics. The findings of this study are useful to determine different fractions of people in selecting a type of route for a given socio-demographic profile during an evacuation.
  Authors: Sadri, Arif Mohaimin; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Gladwin, Hugh
  Authors: Sadri, Arif Mohaimin; Ukkusuri, Satish V.; Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Gladwin, Hugh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-3642
• Optimal Traffic Routing for Large-Scale Evacuation in Urban Networks with Various Threat Levels
  Abstract: This paper investigates a traffic network evacuation model with non-uniform threat levels, minimizing an objective of total exposure (duration and severity) to the threat among all vehicles. The model is essentially a min-cost dynamic flow problem associated with time-dependent arc costs. The traffic flow models included in this representation are the point queue and the spatial queue models. The evacuation model is solved to optimality on a time-expanded network using commercial software. The model and associated solution method are applied to solve a large-scale chlorine release scenario in Tucson, Arizona.
  Authors: Nassir, Neema; Zheng, Hong; Hickman, Mark D.; Chiu, Yi-Chang
  Authors: Nassir, Neema; Zheng, Hong; Hickman, Mark D.; Chiu, Yi-Chang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-4174
• Investigating the Truth of Heinrich’s Pyramid in Offshore Helicopter Transportation
  Abstract: Several hazardous industries have embraced the premise that incidents of negligible safety consequences are precursors to accidents in a statistical sense. However, in few such industries research has verified the truth of this assumption. This paper explores the relationships between accidents and reported incidents in the context of oil and gas-related offshore helicopter operations, using the accident investigation reports published by the UK Air Accident Investigation Board (AAIB) and the incidents filed under the British Mandatory Occurrence Reporting (MOR) Scheme between 1997 and 2010. Classification frameworks were developed to enable the independent analysis of accidents and incidents in relation to specific variables of interest. Frequencies and statistical associations that could have indicated the precursor relationship were explored. From the results of the analysis, the paper highlights potentially severe shortcomings in the assumptions underpinning incident data collection, as well as on the process with which incident data is generated. For example, it unveils the existence of sudden failures that cannot be reliably anticipated nor reported, and draws attention to a potentially flawed incident reporting culture. Given the results, the paper informs stakeholders in the industry of specific initiatives to ensure that the right lessons are learned from past occurrences (e.g., through ways of collecting incident data that will not solely rely on reporters) and how these could be used to inform future interventions, e.g., via the analysis of potential consequences of incidents, as a complement to the analysis of frequencies.
  Authors: Nascimento, Felipe Augusto Coutinho; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.
  Authors: Nascimento, Felipe Augusto Coutinho; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3923
• Computational Method for Calculation of Blast Pressure Outside Vented Suppressive Shield Containers
  Abstract: Vented Suppressive shield (VSS) containers have traditionally been used for storage of hazardous materials, especially explosives, and to attenuate the blast effects (pressure and impulse) as well as eliminate primary fragment hazard associated with accidental explosions. Most VSS containers are designed from experience and observation from container test programs. This design process, however, limits the designer’s ability to economize on materials or use suppressive shield configurations other than those used in the test programs. The aim of this study is to investigate the interaction between the blast waves and the structural steel elements used in VSS. This paper investigates the effect of different VSS sections (configurations) in attenuating blast pressure outside the container and to develop semi-empirical equations that can be used to predict blast pressure and impulse outside VSS containers. AUTODYN® - a commercial software package was used to model the explosive detonation process and evolution of blast wave and its interaction with the VSS. Different VSS configurations ranging in complexity and consisting of single and multilayer VSS shields were studied. The single and multilayer VSS shields were compared and used to develop semi-empirical equations to predict the pressure and impulse outside the VSS container. The proposed equations were compared with experimental results obtained from previous experimental test program and showed very good correlation.
  Authors: Abdelalim, Omar; Braimah, Abass; Abd El Halim, Halim Omar
  Authors: Abdelalim, Omar; Braimah, Abass; Abd El Halim, Halim Omar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-3930
• Modeling of Bus Transit Driver Availability for Effective Emergency Evacuation in Disaster Relief
  Abstract: Evacuation population without access to personal automobiles are expected to utilize transit, especially buses, to reach safer regions. For a transit agency, operation problems to be considered include establishing bus launch areas, positioning the minimum number of required buses and, coordination of transit operators, especially addressing the question of whether the number of drivers will be sufficient to cover the number of vehicles (i.e. buses) planned to be used during the evacuation. It is also highly probable that during an emergency, absenteeism rates for the bus drivers might increase. In this study, we develop two stochastic models to determine extra driver needs during an emergency evacuation operation and to provide optimal solutions using well-established concepts in mathematical programming. Firstly we reviewed the existing literature needed to develop an effective methodology for the development of optimal extraboard management strategies and found that although several recent reports clearly mention the problem of not having sufficient number of bus drivers during emergency evacuation operations (5, 7) there is no analytical study that incorporates the optimal extraboard size problem into emergency evacuation operations. Secondly, two mathematical models are presented in this report. The aim of the developed models are to fill the gap in the literature for determining optimal extraboard size for transit operations during an emergency evacuations. The models are designed to capture different characteristics of decision-makers regarding their risk-taking behavior. Lastly, these models are tested using hypothetical examples based on real-world data extracted from New Jersey. Results show that both models give reasonable extraboard size estimates and under different conditions the models are responsive to the changes in cost and quality of service preferences. The results are encouraging in terms of the models’ usefulness for real-world applications.
  Authors: Morgul, Ender Faruk; Cavus, Ozlem; Ozbay, Kaan; Iyigun, Cem
  Authors: Morgul, Ender Faruk; Cavus, Ozlem; Ozbay, Kaan; Iyigun, Cem
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-4602
• Flight Time Predictability: Concepts, Metrics, and Impact on Scheduled Block Time
  Abstract: The concept of predictability in air transportation has received increased attention in recent service quality assessments. While in ground transportation the concept of predictability has been extensively studied, there is little literature in air transportation. In this paper, a systematic review of the analogy regarding travel time reliability, or predictability between the two types of transportation is conducted. New concepts of flight predictability and different approaches to measure it at the individual flight level are proposed. The predictability performance of the National Airspace System over the past few years is examined based on predictability measures. It is found that predictability performance has similar trends with traffic volume and flight delay. The time-based metric is further decomposed to see proportion of different contributions. Then, the relationship between flight predictability and scheduled block-time is investigated empirically. Multiple regression models are conducted with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) data. The impact of predictability is incorporated into the models with different approaches. It is found that departure delay plays a minor role in setting scheduled block-time, and that scheduled block times are insensitive to historical flight times in the upper tail of the flight time distribution.
  Authors: Hao, Lu; Hansen, Mark
  Authors: Hao, Lu; Hansen, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-4770
• Predictive Qualities of Evacuation Time-Dependent Sequential Logit Demand Model
  Abstract: The results of a study that examined the predictive accuracy of time-dependent sequential logit evacuation demand model is presented in this paper. Predictive accuracy of a time-dependent sequential logit demand model calibrated on Hurricane Gustav’s data was tested on stated choice data collected on nine hypothetical storms. The stated choice data was collected using a novel methodology and a mail-out mail-back self-administered survey from 300 households in New Orleans region. The percentage root mean square error of prediction ranged from 10.39 to 26.74 for all the storms. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that a disaggregate evacuation demand model can be used to predict future evacuation behavior with reasonable levels of accuracy. The results will prove useful for researchers working in evacuation demand modeling and evacuation simulation.
  Authors: Gudishala, Ravindra; Wilmot, Chester G.
  Authors: Gudishala, Ravindra; Wilmot, Chester G.
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-4552
• Learning from Crisis: Transit Evacuation in Honolulu, Hawaii, Following Tsunamis
  Abstract: The major transit agency in Honolulu, Oahu’s Transit Services, Inc. also known as the “TheBus” implemented emergency evacuation procedures following tsunamis triggered by earthquakes in Chile (2010) and in Japan (2011). While in both cases, the amount of damage in Hawaii was minimal, the experience produced important lessons related to emergency operations. Following a brief description of the events and a description of the transit agency and its procedures for emergency evacuation, the important lessons for Honolulu as well as other cities with bus transit operations concerned about evacuation are described. In addition to the importance of standard operating procedures that have been well documented and disseminated, it is also critical to conduct after-action reports to ensure that key problems and challenges are identified, that potential solutions are generated, discussed and implemented, and organizational learning occurs. The importance of training and experience at all levels is important, but creating an ethos of public service and professionalism are essential to effective disaster response. While the lessons are applicable to tsunamis in Hawaii, they are also potentially valuable for other types of hazards in other locations.
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Yamashita, Eric Yukio; Burke, James; Ghimire, Jiwnath; Morikawa, Lydia; Kobayashi, LeeAnna
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Yamashita, Eric Yukio; Burke, James; Ghimire, Jiwnath; Morikawa, Lydia; Kobayashi, LeeAnna
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-4819
• Spatial Criticality of Transportation Risks from Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Tsunami Hazards in Honolulu, Hawaii
  Abstract: n this paper, the potential effects of sea level rise, coastal storms, flooding and tsunami hazards on communities and transportation assets in Hawaii are described. Beginning with a description of the different hazards and the estimated return periods, the hazard areas are delineated and mapped. Then, three different dimensions of vulnerability are analyzed. The first relates to population characteristics, the second is focused on critical infrastructure, and the third addresses transportation system capabilities and usage. A scoring system for assessing the criticality of these different dimensions of vulnerability is devised and implemented using a uniform grid based geography. In addition to comparing the three different dimensions of vulnerability, an overall aggregate score for each grid cell in the affected area is derived. This allows for the determination of an overall criticality score based on the three different dimensions. In this analysis, the three different dimensions are equally weighted. Using various proposed approaches, weights and sub-weights for each of the dimensions could be derived based on the preferences and values of community members, elected or appointed officials and or emergency managers. Moreover, as data on hazards and vulnerabilities become available, the vulnerability of locations and their supporting transportation infrastructure can be adjusted. Then locations can be readily identified by the existence of routine and extensive flooding, identifiable natural processes such as streams, wetlands, natural areas suitable for buffering and water retention, and key opportunities for sustainable, green development. Criticality can be seen both in terms of the short term reduction of threats and risks as well as in terms of longer term redevelopment and transformation of vulnerable areas.
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric Yukio; Ghimire, Jiwnath; Brunner, I Made Indradjaja
  Authors: Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric Yukio; Ghimire, Jiwnath; Brunner, I Made Indradjaja
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-4864
• Use of Passenger Facility Charges as a Funding Stream for Sustainable Transport Facilities at Airports
  Abstract: In this paper we use a case study approach to examine how airport operators have used Passenger Facility Charges to finance sustainable transport facilities, specifically multimodal transit and rail links, on their properties. Passenger Facility Charges (PFCs) are charges that airports may impose on boarding passengers to fund improvements on their properties. Under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements, PFC projects must enhance security, increase capacity, or reduce noise impacts. Importantly, unlike Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants, the other significant FAA-administered improvement fund, PFCs can finance non-aeronautical projects (on the “land” side)—access roads, terminals and gates. This represents a potential major revenue stream for airport multimodal transit and rail connections. However, PFCS are limited to projects located on airport property and for the exclusive benefit of airport passengers, employees and visitors. We examine the types of projects that have been funded by these charges and obstacles to their use.Our findings suggest that there is growing airport operator interest in developing multimodal transit connections, as well as federal policy support. Motivations for this consideration include airport operators' increasing interest in improving their properties' sustainability.Through this research, we identify exemplar cases of PFC-funded intermodal projects and how FAA policy shaped them. We also identify areas for additional research: studies to develop deeper knowledge of effective airport intermodal strategies, more robust evaluation of economic impacts and effects on mode split and greater understanding of integrating airports with the surface transportation system, especially with recent federal and state policy efforts and discussions related to the development of high-speed rail.
  Authors: Orrick, Phyllis; Frick, Karen Trapenberg
  Authors: Orrick, Phyllis; Frick, Karen Trapenberg
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5055
• Roundabout Performance Evaluation in a Network Evacuation: Case of Intelligent Decomposed Network Simulations
  Abstract: This paper presents a methodology to simplify network performance evaluations during hurricane evacuations. The approach offered here is geared towards traffic planners in small towns who have to deal with such scenarios. In such settings, roundabouts are usually among favorite intersection control types. Roundabouts usually operate in low volume traffic areas, while high traffic volumes are expected during evacuation. This paper develops a framework to evaluate the traffic impacts of evacuations in roundabouts within a network. A methodology based on relaxed discrete network design problem is presented along with a decomposition approach to simplify the solution strategy. Two volume adjustment strategies are proposed to maintain the interactions of neighboring intersection while taking advantage of simplicity of traffic analysis at isolated intersections. The case study based on a sub-network of the city of Newark in Delaware is presented. Discussions on applicability and future directions of this research are provided.
  Authors: Eshragh, Sepideh; Faghri, Ardeshir; DuRoss, Michael
  Authors: Eshragh, Sepideh; Faghri, Ardeshir; DuRoss, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-5106
• Development of a National Airport-to-Airport Origin-Destination Table of Air Trips in the United States
  Abstract: Several large and detailed datasets describing air travel within and to and from the United States are collected by the FAA and in part or in their entirety are made publicly available. These datasets include the Airline Origin and Destination Survey Data (DB1B) and T-100 data that describe air passenger trips between airports in several different ways. The data potentially provide travel researchers with a high level of understanding of the air travel market in the United States and in particular represent a comprehensive database of air trip origins and destinations, but their large size and individual limitations means that using them for this purpose is practically difficult and not well understood or documented in the literature.This paper describes an analysis and comparison of the complete 2008 DB1B public dataset, the restricted DB1B international dataset, the T100 market data and the T100 segment data. The paper includes discussion of techniques to process the datasets, infer round trip directions in the DB1B datasets to understand visitor and resident segmentation at a given airport, and to adjust the DB1B sample data so that they better reflect the T100 market data. Finally, the paper presents the results of this work, which is a complete, airport to airport origin-destination table for 2008, segmented into visitors and residents. This table is an input to continuing work, which forms part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Travel Analysis Framework, to develop county to county origin-destination tables for air trips in the United States.
  Authors: Smith, Colin; Sana, Bhargava
  Authors: Smith, Colin; Sana, Bhargava
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5145
• Investigating the Role of Frequent Flyer Membership in Context of Passenger Itinerary Choice
  Abstract: Air passenger itinerary choice has been studied from different perspectives, such as airport preferences in multi-airport regions and desired departure times . However, there lacks a comprehensive study of Frequent Flyer Program (FFP) membership and its influence on itinerary choices. This paper presents two discrete choice models to investigate the role of FFP membership on the itinerary choice. First, a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model is estimated and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for FFP is derived for various groups of travelers based on income and trip purpose. The results suggest a wide range of WTP values for flying on an FFP airline for different travelers. After taking FFP membership into account, there is little differentiation between the legacy carrier airlines, suggesting that they are viewed by passengers as a commodity. Finally, a mixed logit model is estimated to further capture the preference heterogeneity for FFP airlines beyond the discrete socio-demographic divisions in the MNL model. Lognormal distributions and normal distributions are used for the FFP coefficients and the airline coefficients respectively. = A full covariance matrix is estimated to capture the distribution in preferences across the population. Continuous WTP distributions are calculated for each income and trip purpose group. The results show that non-business travelers typically have a very low WTP to fly on an FFP airline, but business travelers, particularly those with high incomes, reveal very large estimates for WTP. A median WTP of $250 is found for high income business travelers with elite FFP memberships. Our estimates for WTP for flying with an FFP airline are much larger than those in previous literature, particularly for travelers with elite FFP membership status.
  Authors: Seelhorst, Michael; Liu, Yi
  Authors: Seelhorst, Michael; Liu, Yi
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-5294
• Aircraft Rerouting due to Abrupt Facility Outages: Case Study of 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Japan
  Abstract: Abrupt airport outages resulting from terrorism or natural disasters can cause reroutes and fuel critical situations for flights. While aircraft carry reserve fuel for holding and diversions, poor situational awareness and incomplete information about conditions may cause disordered reroutes. We develop a deterministic routing model for airport outages that assigns flights an arrival time at a diversion airport. It includes a parameter for decision time, allowing us to investigate the value of faster response with advanced technologies. Our model minimizes flight time after the disaster, to ensure flights avoid fuel emergencies. Model formulations include an unconstrained allocation of flights to diversion airports, and a constrained allocation of flights according to routing rules; this formulation is suboptimal but provides a powerful tool because of its potential ease of implementation. We utilize the models to determine how coordinated Traffic Flow Management actions could have diverted flights and reduced fuel critical situations immediately following the destructive 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We find that, under reasonable assumptions about diversion airports and capacities, all flights can be accommodated without reaching a fuel critical state for a decision occurring 20 minutes after the disaster. A longer diversion decision making process results in some flights reaching emergency conditions, requiring the use of other, less preferred, diversion airports, and expedited handling procedures. The more constrained model requires faster response for full accommodation of flights. Because of the limited set of airports employed in this study, these results represent a conservative perspective on the potential outcomes for this decision-making paradigm.
  Authors: Ryerson, Megan Smirti; Churchill, Andrew M
  Authors: Ryerson, Megan Smirti; Churchill, Andrew M
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Paper
  Subject: Security and Emergencies; Aviation
  Session: 379
  Paper Number: 13-4947
  Practice-Ready: Yes
• Empirical Evacuation Response Curve During Hurricane Irene in Cape May County, New Jersey
  Authors: Li, Jian
  Authors: Li, Jian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-0285
• Improving Transportation Resource Coordination for Multimodal Evacuation Planning: Literature Review and Research Agenda
  Authors: Hess, Daniel
  Authors: Hess, Daniel
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-2084
• No-Notice Evacuation Management: Ramp Closures Under Varying Budgets and Demand Scenarios
  Authors: Ghanipoor Machiani, Sahar
  Authors: Ghanipoor Machiani, Sahar
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-3003
• Sensitivity of Evacuation Performance Estimates to Evacuee Route Choice Behavior
  Authors: Edara, Praveen
  Authors: Edara, Praveen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-2227
• Modeling of Bus Transit Driver Availability for Effective Emergency Evacuation in Disaster Relief
  Authors: Morgul, Ender Faruk
  Authors: Morgul, Ender Faruk
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-4602
• Aircraft Rerouting due to Abrupt Facility Outages: Case Study of 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Japan
  Authors: Ryerson, Megan
  Authors: Ryerson, Megan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 379
  Paper Number: 13-4947
• Roundabout Performance Evaluation in a Network Evacuation: Case of Intelligent Decomposed Network Simulations
  Authors: Eshragh, Sepideh
  Authors: Eshragh, Sepideh
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-5106
• Learning from Crisis: Transit Evacuation in Honolulu, Hawaii, Following Tsunamis
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 514
  Paper Number: 13-4819
• Assessing Transportation Network Terrorism Risk: Theoretical Approach
  Authors: Murray-Tuite, Pamela
  Authors: Murray-Tuite, Pamela
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5071
• Mapping Flood Risk: Assessment and Mitigation
  Authors: Mayer, Henry
  Authors: Mayer, Henry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5069
• Component-Level Risk Management: Introduction to Available FHWA Course in Assessing and Mitigating Bridge and Tunnel Terrorist Threats
  Authors: Ernst, Steven
  Authors: Ernst, Steven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5072
• Visualizing, Coordinating, and Responding to Major Events: Overview of Situational Awareness, Evacuation Management, and Consensus-Building Tools from Information Visualization and Dissemination Point of View
  Authors: Pack, Michael
  Authors: Pack, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5073
• Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model
  Authors: Burns, Maria
  Authors: Burns, Maria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5075
• Risk Collaboration and Mitigation Planning with Hazus: Bringing Diverse Stakeholder Groups Together
  Authors: Caplan, Jamie
  Authors: Caplan, Jamie
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5077
• Scenario-Based Climate Change Risk Analysis for Transportation Infrastructure Using GIS
  Authors: Wu, Yao-Jan
  Authors: Wu, Yao-Jan
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5081
• Improving Transportation Infrastructure System Resilience Using Federal Tools and Customized Models
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5083
• Practices, Policies, and Technology Applications of Evacuation and Emergency Transportation Management
  Authors: Wolshon, Brian
  Authors: Wolshon, Brian
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 120
  Paper Number: P13-5070
• Predictive Qualities of Evacuation Time-Dependent Sequential Logit Demand Model
  Authors: Gudishala, Ravindra
  Authors: Gudishala, Ravindra
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 772
  Paper Number: 13-4552
• Twenty years of Hazus: Standard Loss Estimation and Damage Assessment Tool of Federal Emergency Management Agency
  Authors: Berman, Eric
  Authors: Berman, Eric
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5076
• Influencing Hazard Mitigation Through GIS-Based Risk Awareness and Community Engagement
  Authors: Brown, Vincent
  Authors: Brown, Vincent
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5080
• Mitigating Risk Through Preparedness and PS-Prep
  Authors: Pollock, Marcus
  Authors: Pollock, Marcus
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-5082
• Partnerships Are Crucial in Critical Infrastructure Protection
  Authors: Labelle, Mark
  Authors: Labelle, Mark
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6852
• FHWA Update on Bridge and Tunnel Security
  Authors: Ernst, Steven
  Authors: Ernst, Steven
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6848
• Safety and Security of Bridges and Tunnels on Federal Roads in Germany
  Authors: Kaundinya, Ingo
  Authors: Kaundinya, Ingo
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6849
• Swiss Experience in Hazard Analysis, Risk Evaluation, and Intervention Planning
  Authors: Hajdin, Rade
  Authors: Hajdin, Rade
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6850
• Transportation Security Administration and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Evaluate Attack Scenarios for Highway Tunnels and Bridges
  Authors: Walton, Bruce
  Authors: Walton, Bruce
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6853
• Introduction
  Authors: Willauer, David
  Authors: Willauer, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 529
  Paper Number: P13-6971
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Varkonyi, Irvin
  Authors: Varkonyi, Irvin
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 478
  Paper Number: Z13-478
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Dinning, Michael
  Authors: Dinning, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies; Transportation, General
  Session: 635
  Paper Number: Z13-635
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Environment; Marine Transportation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 576
  Paper Number: Z13-576
• Humanitarian Logistics: Overview and Case study on Food Aid Distribution in the Horn of Africa--Port Simulation and Shipment Scheduling
  Authors: Nazzal, Dima
  Authors: Nazzal, Dima
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 383
  Paper Number: P13-6740
• Bridge Safety in Norwegian Bridge Design and Bridge Management
  Authors: Grefstad, Knut
  Authors: Grefstad, Knut
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: International Activities; Bridges and Other Structures; Design; Maintenance and Preservation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 106
  Paper Number: P13-6851
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Nakanishi, Yuko
  Authors: Nakanishi, Yuko
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: Z13-171
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Holguin-Veras, Jose
  Authors: Holguin-Veras, Jose
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 316
  Paper Number: Z13-316
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Willauer, David
  Authors: Willauer, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 529
  Paper Number: Z13-529
• Checkpoint of the Future: Opportunities for 2014 and Beyond
  Authors: Dunlap, Kenneth
  Authors: Dunlap, Kenneth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 473
  Paper Number: P13-6866
• Next Generation Screening: An Airport Perspective
  Authors: Rossell, Michael
  Authors: Rossell, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 473
  Paper Number: P13-6867
• Risk Assessment and Certification for Ports and Impacts on the Supply Chain
  Authors: Penders, Michael
  Authors: Penders, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 478
  Paper Number: P13-6152
• ACRP Report 65: Guidebook for Airport Irregular Operations (IROPS) Contingency Planning
  Authors: Agnew, Rose
  Authors: Agnew, Rose
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 379
  Paper Number: P13-7168
• Presiding Officer
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Authors: Croope, Silvana
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: Z13-171
• Engaging Minority Communities in Hazard Awareness
  Authors: Haider, Renee
  Authors: Haider, Renee
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 171
  Paper Number: P13-7094
• Catastrophic Modeling of Potential Disruptions to Inland Waterway Systems
  Authors: Rovito, Jennifer
  Authors: Rovito, Jennifer
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Environment; Marine Transportation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 576
  Paper Number: P13-6153
• Research on Vehicle Computer Security and Vulnerability
  Authors: Rad, Tiffany
  Authors: Rad, Tiffany
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies; Transportation, General
  Session: 635
  Paper Number: P13-5899
• Catastrophic Modeling, Insurance, and Transportation
  Authors: Michel-Kerjan, Erwann
  Authors: Michel-Kerjan, Erwann
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Environment; Marine Transportation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 576
  Paper Number: P13-6154
• Poison Inhalation Hazards in Supply Chain Transport
  Authors: Binder, David
  Authors: Binder, David
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 529
  Paper Number: P13-5904
• Application of Six Sigma to Humanitarian Relief Logistics
  Authors: Helferich, Keith
  Authors: Helferich, Keith
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 383
  Paper Number: P13-5944
• Supply Chain Management: Convergence of Security and Resilience
  Authors: Thomas, Andrew
  Authors: Thomas, Andrew
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 478
  Paper Number: P13-6028
• Continuity of Operations Planning and Resilience in Supply Chain Security
  Authors: Edwards, Frances
  Authors: Edwards, Frances
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 478
  Paper Number: P13-6029
• Economic Impact of Supply Chain Security: Financial Trade-offs Between Supply Chain Security and Efficiency
  Authors: Burns, Maria
  Authors: Burns, Maria
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Rail; Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 478
  Paper Number: P13-6030
• IROPS Preparation, Management, and Recovery: Airports' Role
  Authors: Crites, James
  Authors: Crites, James
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: AICP Certification Maintenance Session; Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 379
  Paper Number: P13-6345
• Criticality Prioritization of Transportation Infrastructure Under Flooding in Coastal Areas
  Authors: Lu, Qing-Chang
  Authors: Lu, Qing-Chang
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-3199
• Spatial Criticality of Transportation Risks from Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Tsunami Hazards in Honolulu, Hawaii
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-4864
• CERT Insider Threat Program
  Authors: Trzeciak, Randy
  Authors: Trzeciak, Randy
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies; Transportation, General
  Session: 635
  Paper Number: P13-5897
• Industry Perspective on Protecting the Chemical Supply Chain
  Authors: Ward, Henry
  Authors: Ward, Henry
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 529
  Paper Number: P13-5906
• Security Awareness: Building a Program, Not Checking a Box
  Authors: Bray, Kelley
  Authors: Bray, Kelley
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies; Transportation, General
  Session: 635
  Paper Number: P13-5901
• U.S. Department of Transportation Supply Chain Security and Emergency Response
  Authors: Lowder, Michael
  Authors: Lowder, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 529
  Paper Number: P13-5905
• Cybersecurity Ecosystem: Opportunities for Everyone
  Authors: Dinning, Michael
  Authors: Dinning, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Data and Information Technology; Security and Emergencies; Transportation, General
  Session: 635
  Paper Number: P13-5902
• Perspectives on Aviation Security Screening
  Authors: Lord, Stephen
  Authors: Lord, Stephen
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 473
  Paper Number: P13-6389
• “Middle Risk” in the Future of Aviation Security Checkpoint
  Authors: Samsa, Michael
  Authors: Samsa, Michael
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Aviation; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 473
  Paper Number: P13-6392
• Red Cross International Logistics Challenges
  Authors: Critchley, Elizabeth
  Authors: Critchley, Elizabeth
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation
  Subject: Freight Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 383
  Paper Number: P13-6393
• Calibration and Validation of a Regional-Level Traffic Model for Hurricane Evacuation
  Authors: Montz, Thomas
  Authors: Montz, Thomas
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2339
• Considering Individuals with Disabilities in Building Evacuation: Agent-Based Simulation Study
  Authors: Christensen, Keith
  Authors: Christensen, Keith
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2790
• Using National Household Travel Survey Data for Assessment of Transportation System Vulnerabilities
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Authors: Kim, Karl
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 607
  Paper Number: 13-2527
• Analysis Framework for Designing Two-Device Checked Baggage Inspection Systems at Airports
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey
  Authors: Cheu, Ruey
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0132
• Addressing Two Issues in Airline Origin and Destination Survey
  Authors: Lee, Tao
  Authors: Lee, Tao
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1280
• Historical Review of Air Traffic Management System Concept of Operations
  Authors: Studic, Milena
  Authors: Studic, Milena
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-1972
• Sources of Market Power in the Airline Industry: Panel Data Evidence from U.S. Airports
  Authors: Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Authors: Lakew, Paulos Ashebir
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3382
• Explanatory Power of Different Data Envelopment Analysis Models for Determining Airports' Cost Efficiency
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3459
• Low-Cost Airlines-Within-Airlines: Business Model Moving East
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Authors: Merkert, Rico
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3580
• Investigating the Truth of Heinrich's Pyramid in Offshore Helicopter Transportation
  Authors: Coutinho Nascimento, Felipe Augusto
  Authors: Coutinho Nascimento, Felipe Augusto
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-3923
• Flight Time Predictability: Concepts, Metrics, and Impact on Scheduled Block Time
  Authors: Hao, Lu
  Authors: Hao, Lu
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-4770
• Optimization Model for Dispatching Heterogeneous Emergency Vehicles
  Authors: Sharifi, Elham
  Authors: Sharifi, Elham
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-0686
• Considering Individuals with Disabilities in Building Evacuation: Agent-Based Simulation Study
  Authors: Chen, Anthony
  Authors: Chen, Anthony
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-2790
• Optimal Traffic Routing for Large-Scale Evacuation in Urban Networks with Various Threat Levels
  Authors: Nassir, Neema
  Authors: Nassir, Neema
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 671
  Paper Number: 13-4174
• Creating an Air Traffic Analysis Structure to Support Forecasting
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Authors: Cripwell, Paul
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0482
• Exploring the Feasibility of Using Airport Data in Real-Time Risk Assessment
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed
  Authors: Ahmed, Mohamed
  Year: 2013
  Document Type: Presentation; Poster
  Subject: Aviation; Economics; Security and Emergencies
  Session: 608
  Paper Number: 13-0834